Fixing
a hole:
The 2-4 Steelers have less than two weeks now to get right; much less considering that Coach Cowher determined to work his charges for just 2 of 7 days over the bye week.� That�ll give the players plenty of time to catch a couple of flicks: (Phantom pick: see Kill Bill for sure but, you know, don�t actually do that).� God knows, that movie thing worked great last summer and, while his players rest up, maybe Coach can work to assuage that psychic blister which has caused his personal expectation for this team to drop from �winning it all� to merely �not beating ourselves.���
Quite obviously, job #1 is to get the offense going.� Last winter, we saw that group put up 30 points in 4 of their final 5 games.� Off the D-side�s performance then, you had to believe that would be required this season too.� Well, the defense has played somewhat better but the O, after opening with 34, has gone in reverse.� The most glaring problem is:
The O-line:�
The problem is apparent; the Steelers approached pre-season with (6) guys who had 10 or more pro starts.� They cut one, Calvin Collins; Hartings� knee, Simmons� diabetes, Smith�s nerve problem and Fordham�s back capped four.� So, they�ve got one healthy proven player, Alan Faneca, and four wanna-be guys.��� Still, what they�ve got is what they�ve got and as they�ve got to cobble up some kind of some functional unit from that, consider:
- You�ve got to sit Kendall Simmons.� Most likely, this player should have begun the season on a 6-week injury list but for sure, he�s got to sit now.� In my world, Simmons is a game-day inactive from here; during the week, he works at OC, giving Hartings the time off he needs to play Sunday.��� At this point, if Simmons is anything, he�s a center especially since you�ve got to conclude that Hartings won�t be back in 2004.� Now is the time when Kendall learns that position.� If any good is to come from his illness that would be it.
- Oliver Ross is the 8th guy.� For two straight seasons, Ross has been the putative starter.� He�s dumped both jobs; he won�t be back next year; this season, if he plays, that�ll be on an emergency basis only.
That leaves 7; while many have proposed starting both Okobi and Hartings, given Hartings� fragility, I�d say that�s a doomed proposition.� IMO, it�s a mortal lock that Hartings will miss some time this season; if that�s true, then any scheme relying on both absolutely will blow up and the PS then will be back to scrambling, just as they are now.� Since they�re not going to get another bye week this season, it would best to establish that line-up most likely to endure.� So:
- LT:� Plan to rotate Nkwenti/Fordham with the hope that Nkwenti takes command.� In Denver, we saw that Mathias may be a decent pass protector; we don�t know that he can run block but it seems likely that, with those soccer feet, he can get the seal needed for Faneca to get around the corner and lead the Steeler pitch left, which has been their only effective run play this season.� As for Fordham, well, he certainly did struggle next to Simmons but with Faneca sideboard instead, he well could be a functional player.�
- LG:� Alan Faneca, I�m not eager to move
an All Pro; except as Smith can�t go, Faneca remains at LG so to steady
Nkwenti and that fairly shaky OC position.
- OC:� Retain the Hartings/Okobi
rotation, hope for the best.�
- RG:� Keydrick Vincent.� If the Steelers do have their future RG
on this roster, he�s the guy.�
Vincent is a good pass blocker and can drive in the run game; in
these aspects, he�s a considerable upgrade from Simmons, circa 2003.� Vincent does seem to struggle to get
out on sweeps, or get to the second level but in that respect, he�s
indistinguishable from any of the Steeler interior O-linemen, including
Hartings at this stage.�
- RT:� Marvel Smith.� All this LT/RT cap cash, blind-side-protect stuff is irrelevant.�� In shotgun, a formation that the PS has featured, the QB has no blindside; in the spread, another current favorite here, both tackles are on their separate islands.� The Steelers opened the season with their strongest O-linemen, Faneca and Smith, on the same side; so, they got beat down in repetitive fashion off the other side.� At this point, it seems best to spread what proven talent they still may possess, if only to give their newbie starters some chance to succeed.� What�s the alternative?� Do you want Vincent and Nkwenti (or Fordham, or Ross) on the same side?
The Steeler FO has to find out what they have in Vincent, Nkwenti and Okobi.� That�s the class of 2001 and that means every one those players will be entering their RFA seasons.� In the past, the FO has handled that transition poorly, passing out precious cap cash to a succession of never-going-to-be types.� Just last winter they pumped out 980K to Poteat and Kurpeikis, two guys who had no chance to get out of camp.� They anted up another 980K on Chris �Lord of the Inactive List� Hoke and Kendrick Clancy, a guy with (0) T, (0) A, (0) sacks, (0) FF, (0) PD in (6) games.� That�s 1.960M for nothing at all; not to say that would have landed any high end FA but as you may know, mid-level RT Mike Rosenthal came to the Vikes for less.� Add in your C$3 chronic underachievers and, well, little wonder that the PS is against it each and every year.����
Let Tommy be Tommy:
If published reports are to be believed, then you�ve got to conclude that the PS has conceded their salient O-side strength, that being the vertical pass game.� You�ve heard it; teams are playing Cover 2 and (oh my god) you can�t go deep against Cover 2.� Well maybe, but IMO this is not so.� Cover 2, or its immediate ancestors, has been in place since Steve Owen devised the 4-3; more or less, that was a half century ago and, you know, there have been a couple deep balls completed in that term.
It�s not superior safety play that dives Cover 2: consider T-Bay where the safeties have been, and remain, former 3rd or 4th round draft picks.� �Those players must be smart enough to read and tough enough to tackle but, really, they�re more caretakers than playmakers.� Pressure upfront makes the difference, especially from the D-line; Tampa Bay has 3 former 1st round picks upfront, Carolina has two plus 2nd round value Kris Jenkins; in Indy, pass rusher extraordinaire Dwight Freeney was the first player that C2 guru Tony Dungy drafted.� It�s all about pressure, force brought to bear on a single point, that occupied by an opposing QB.� Cover 2 is D-line dependent because, generally, it�s those 5 players covering underneath the deep two that actually generate turnovers and, as we�ve seen, turnovers are a dominant winning factor.
Rush 4, 5 under and 2 deep; there�s your system.� ��You can call it Cover 2 but the 5 under convert those plays initiated by the Front 4.� For sure, we�ve seen that here; of Maddox�s 8 picks, 6 have come on underneath throws including all 3 returned for TD.� In C2, you can bet 4 are going to rush; if the safeties have their half-field zones then it�s the interchange among the 5 under that seal the deal.�
To win, the Steelers are going have to get over the top.� They have no alternative; those 14 play drives they�re trying to accomplish depend on a run game, which is absent, and an underneath pass game that has been, to say the least, shaky.� Part of that�s a scheme thing; crossing routes can effectively attack either zone or man under but the Steelers don�t run those.� They do run plenty of sit-down routes, hook-up, curl, and the like but those are red meat for the 5-under beast.� �Of course, the other aspect is personnel; of 4 TE on the roster, only one can catch the ball and, past Spike and Ward, the auxiliary receivers, ARE and Amoz, are so squatty as to disappear in that under-scrum.� �None of those guys can get deep so, maybe, it�s time to bring a Lee Mays if only to clear out for more accomplished receivers.� �Maybe Chris Doering can work under; at least, he�s tall enough to poke up over the crowd.�
But, you know, those are weak-ass, circumstantial work-arounds.� The means of attacking the Cover 2 are well known; by way of review, or to assess the Steelers� prospects in that regard, consider this outline:
- Defeat the DT:� Nothing zeroes out a pass game like a strong interior push; stop that, keep the pass lanes open and even those dwarfish Steelers running under may hove into view.� Leaving that, we�ve seen the PS whip T-Bay and Indy 2002 by running inside effectively.� Quite obviously, any inside run game may divert the MLB from just dropping deep on every down; if the SS has to come up too then, short of a Titan type nickel, the C2 is done.� The primacy of this point suggests that Alan Faneca remain in-board in any recast O-line.
- �Make the underneath players declare:� There�s a set of routes that are effective against zone under, another set against man under; quite obviously, knowledge is power.� However, this is far easier said than done since there are many permutations to the coverage including but not limited too; mixed man and zone under, or some interchange between safeties and LB as one safety drops in and both LB run out (creating Cover 3).� Still, pre-snap motion ought to give T-Max some sense of the defense; we might (though he ought not) presume its zone if no one moves, man as the defense adjusts.
- �Attack the corners:� �If the prime-time C2 players are upfront, the laws of
parity suggest the DBs are not at that level.� In fact, the T-Bay, Carolina and Indy CB are, mainly,
mid-round picks; there is even a couple of former UDFA within that set.� �Though the safeties are in the middle of the field, the
CBs are the central weak point.�
That�s why they get help over the top with the safeties; under too,
that�s why those T-Bay, Carolina and Indy LB are more swift than
stout.� In-out games strip off the
LB help, up-under games strip off the safeties; those all involve multiple
receivers on delay or drag routes and, short or long, those do take time
to develop. �Maddox is accurate
enough, the top two WR here are talented enough but to this date, the
O-line hasn�t provided the time.
- Do
the math:� C2 divides the field
by two so, purely, it�s a symmetrical defense.� Allowing that there are myriad post-snap alterations, still,
it seems apparent that flooding one side has a strong chance for
success.� Limit pre-snap D-adjustment
by lining up symmetrically, develop overloads with crossing routes and
those in-out games mentioned previously.�
�Go deep with 3 or 4; unless
those guys can�t outrun LB, two or more will be singled up.� ��
There are few aspects in the proceeding that do not involve line play so, as usual, we�re back to the jump.� If the O-line performs to acceptable form, then the Steelers are a playoff contender but if not, not.� There are more than a few D-side issues too; in outline, those include:
- The PS are playing the run very well; however, they�re not getting pressure on the QB and, partly as a consequence, �they�re last in the NFL in completion percentage against.� Considering that they are 1st in passing yards allowed, you�ve got to conclude they�re giving a disproportional share of short balls.� �Put another way, the PS Front 7 is stout against the run but their D-line can�t pressure the passer and their LB can�t cover, short or long.
- If the LB can�t cover and the D-line can�t close the deal, it follows that the PS personnel has to get more coverage-heavy, if only to free up their rush players.� That suggest a nickel; while Coach Lewis has gone 2-4-5 to date, IMO, a 3-3-5 is a better fit for the PS personnel.� The D-line is integral to stopping the run and that always is job #1.� So, KVO, Hampton, Smith, Porter, Farrior and Bell remain as starters; of the LB, Farrior would get most coverage duty while Porter and Bell would be wildcard rushers, usually off a standup position.�
- Such as they are, the top coverage DB are Townsend and Scott; so, that�s 2 of 5.� Brent Alexander has 2 INT and 3 PD, 2nd on the team.� It could be argued that�s he�s been more beneficiary than playmaker; however, there�s little reason to believe he�s going anywhere; so, that�s 3 in the nickel pack.� For sure, Alexander�s �coach on the field� acumen might be better justified if the PS fielded two rookies rather than a couple 7-10 year vets; that so, it�s time for Ike and Troy.� There�s your 5, 3 CB, 2S.
- The Steelers do not have the personnel to pressure rushing 4.� They don�t have the personnel to single up across the secondary either.� Therefore, they�re generally going to be limited to rushing 4-5 with deception as the primary means towards getting home.� That may mean dropping off a DL or two and rushing a DB or two.� In general, the prime rushers are Porter and Bell; in the nickel outlined above, the prime �rush DB� are Polamalu and Taylor. �
There�s room for the others; we�ve seen other teams bring D-linemen in waves so there is time available for Gildon, Bailey and Jackson.� We�ve seen other teams, especially Tennessee, give up to 8 DB significant play; so, there�s time available for Logan, Washington and Hope.� However, that�s all moot; unless or until the PS drop towards the 8-loss area, we�re not going to see any D-side change but, in the increasingly likely event that this happens, it�ll be time to sit the C$3 2004 cap casualties and bring the youngsters.�
At present, the Steelers have all kinds of O-line issues; they�re short a CB or two; they have no DE.� The window is closing if not closed; should that get locked down, then the primary goal for 2003 has to be to determine what you�ve got for 2004.� Too bad, but there it is.