Week 1
Since Mill has taken to posting my E-mails as articles, I thought I better knock one out, if only to preserve some kind of (entirely meaningless) rep.�
Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways, though not much in evidence this week, can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).� The table is for yesterday�s games only; the SF/Giants Thursday opener is not included.
|
Category |
Previous |
This week |
Year to date |
Won this stat but lost
the game |
|
Total yards rushing |
None |
9-5 |
9-5 |
Buffalo Jacksonville Philadelphia Minnesota Dallas |
|
TOP |
None |
10-4 |
10-4 |
Buffalo Jacksonville St. Louis Minnesota |
|
100 yard rushers |
None |
7-1 |
7-1 |
Buffalo |
|
>/= +2 Takeaways |
None |
None |
None |
NA |
|
YPA |
None |
12-2 |
12-2 |
Atlanta St. Louis |
Remarks:
Buffalo beat the Jets on both sides of the ball but gave two KO return TD.� As we know, it is tough to win when you spot the opposition two ST touchdowns.� Similarly, the Jags/Indy game was decided on an INT TD return; its worth noting that the Colts� Dungy recast defense limited Fred Taylor to 24/83.� Maybe, that�s less a credit to the Colts than reflective of the fact that Boselli is gone or that Taylor is several knee surgeries past his peak.� We�ll see.
Philadelphia�s rushing edge was pretty narrow; as usual, the Eagles were unable to establish any dominant RB.� Whatever small edge they had in net rushing was insufficient to offset the Titans YPA advantage.� The same is true for the Vikings; decent rushing and TOP edge but that revamped defense made Jim Miller and Marty Booker look like, say, Montana and Rice.� On the flip side, the Falcons won YPA but were absolutely unable to stop, or even slow up Ahmad Green�� Green had 27/155 and the Pack had the ball 38:50.�
St. Louis lost on the pasture in Denver, which is no surprise but it is a shock that M. Faulk went for only 10/19 rushing.� The Rams run/pass ratio was about 1:3; that�s a losing ratio even for those turf greats.
God lives; we know this because the �Boys stench is unabated.� Certainly after the debacle in Houston, Dallas fans will greet their team with all the enthusiasm we�d expect from Juan Padilla should Attorney General Ashcroft choose to leaven that citizen�s incarceration with a rendition of his �Let the Eagle Soar�.
Whatever.� Applying the info tabulated above to tonight�s game:
It is 7:1 favorable if a team can generate a 100-yard rusher but that won�t happen tonight.� A. Smith is an above average plowback but the Steelers, generally, eat those guys up; so long as Hampton is healthy, he�ll control Compton and Woody allowing the LB to take their kill shots.� Similarly, the Bus will not get it in gear tonight. Richard Seymour will chew up the right side of the Steeler O-line and the Pats heavy nickel (three safety set) will frequently disrupt run-blocking schemes.
It is 6:1 favorable if a team wins YPA.� Someone has to do it, for the Steelers to do so, they must:
1. Get ARE and Mathis on the field.� The Pats have (3) good safeties and (1) good corner, however, while Law can cover, that safety troika can�t match up with either ARE�s speed and quickness or with Mathis�s vet guile. If those safeties could man-up, then they�d be making the big CB dollars. The Pat�s heavy nickel exemplifies the fact that, excluding Law, they are weak at CB; meanwhile, the Steelers have improved enormously at the #3 and #4 WR spots.� The Rams have long predicated their pass offense on the premise that their 3/4WR can beat any opponent�s nickel/dime DB.� That�ll be true tonight for the Steelers; use that advantage or lose.
2.
Isolate Burress on Otis Smith; an effective means may be
to flood Law�s side so forcing the safeties to roll away from Plax.�
3. Defensively, the Steelers have got to get to Brady.� The Pats generally work underneath with WR slants and dump-offs to TE and H-backs.� The Steelers� safeties are weak against the pass; that so, the TE will be open.� DW and Scott, with no hope for help over the top, generally are off the line; that so, the WR slants will be open.� Therefore, the Pats will get their yards through the air; it will be up to the Steeler pass rushers to erase these gains.�
I expect the Pats will run a lot of one back, two TE sets. The Steelers have a tough time with one TE; for sure, they�ll be challenged with dual-TE.� The Pat OT are both 2nd year guys, ROT Kenyatta Jones hasn�t got a lot of experience.� We�ll see how he matches with Aaron Smith, Pro Bowler LB-extraordinaire, Jason Gildon not to mention dime backer Joey Porter walking over. �Surely, a strong rush would keep those TE in pass protection, IMO that is the Steelers best defense against Graham and Fauria, if not Cleland.
It is 5:2 favorable if a team wins TOP.� A big TOP win suggests dominance by one team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.� I don�t see that happening tonight; IMO the D-lines will win their respective battles. TOP will be even with many short possessions on each side.
It is 9:5 favorable for the team with the advantage rushing.� Stewart, Amoz and Fu trump Kevin Faulk and JR Redmond.
This week:� Newspaper accounts suggest the Steelers focus is on avenging their loss last January.� Bad brains, that was then this is now; obsession with what is done whiffs like desperation.� I can�t remember a defending champ losing an opener at home; for that reason and because I think the Pats have a better perspective going in, I�ll say Pats, 17-14.
Next Week:
Oakland ran for 221, passed for 202, limited the S�Hawks to 186 net, had nearly +10 TOP and won 31-17.� Buckle up.