This is a short article about second down and a yard to go (2-1) and Pittsburgh's 2005 season. Many readers will perceive it as basically yet ANOTHER post-victory completely unfounded doom and gloom, naysaying piece on the Stillers main page. So be it.
Sorry if I'm putting a damper on your celebration of our second straight win over a terrible NFC North team. The Vikings, like our prior victims, the Bears have no offense. The Vicodins have more offensive weapons than the Bears and a QB who has had success in the past, but I think the Steelers decent play on defense combined with his OC's inept playcalling and the all around imbecilic atmosphere created within the team mainly by its head coach have put Brad Johnson on a fast train to Maddoxville.
But that's neither here nor there for my purposes.
What this article isn't is a bash of Cowher or Whisenhunt, a bash of Bettis, Parker, our O-line and so on. The Steelers have, for now, stopped the bleeding. But it hasn't been pretty and the boat is still leaking. I want to focus on a tiny leak of seemingly little consequence so far, but I believe that it is one that could have relatively huge consequences in our future season. However long that future is.
Several recent gaffes on 2-1--including in the Vikings game--prompted me to do a little (no doubt slipshod) reasearch on the topic and I have reached the conclusion that the infrequent occurence that has been 2-1 in the Stillers season could rise up to haunt us. I did not compare our success rate and its attendant narrative to other teams, check what we did on defense on 2-1, I merely tabulated (I hope accurately) what the Stillers' offense has done (or not done) on 2-1 this season. When things are this tight heading into the end of the season no nit should be left unpicked.
First of all, the Steelers have successfully converted for a first down and/or touchdown (2) on 10 of 15 2-1 plays from scrimmage in 2005. Good for us. But the failures are what I am obsessed with. Of course.
The first of the meltdowns came in what shall henceforth be known as The Great Jacksonville Disaster. Tommy Maddox's play was so ungodly horrendous that we have all forgotten the Stillers second offensive possession, no score, a nine-yard run by Parker put us in 2-1 on our own 45. Two plays later --no need to revisit anymore gory details from that debacle -- it was 4-1 and we were punting. I won't reminisce any further about the clusterfuck that followed, but who knows how the game goes if we convert in the early 2-1 situation? It wasn't like they blew us out even with Maddox's several gifts to them. If we'd converted, could we have done better in establishing the run and kept things out of Maddox's palsied mitts? A plausible question at the very least.
It wasn't til six games later that we had our second 2-1 mishap in a loss to the Colts and , even then, it was of no consequence as we scored our only TD of the game on the next play.
In the next game, a home loss, we were not so fortunate on our second 2�1 misstep. We trailed the Bengals 31-24 and faced 2-1 at the Bengals 39. Bettis gets stoned for -2 and on the next play Staley is slapping at that fumbled pitchout for what might as well have been a 50-yard loss. Punt. An ensuing exchange of punts leads to field position for the Bengals and the clinching score. We had successfully converted an earlier 2-1 for a TD and failed on another that did no damage because we converted on the following 3-1.
We clanged on an early 2-1 in the Bears victory. This particular miscue also meant nil as Roethlisberger hit Ward for a 14-yard TD on the next play.
Today, with the score 18-3 and the Vikings wheezing their last breaths, we had a 2-1 at their 40. Parker no gain, Bettis loses a yard, punt. GULP.
Sorry, but through the decades I've seen us blow more certain victories than this one. And we often had much better defenses. Could Brad Johnson capture lightning in a bottle in a two score game with over six minutes left? It's not like he hasn't responded in similar situations in what seems like a 25-year career of feast or famine. Our defense was playing effectively, but what about that terrible lapse in the Bears game? Against Kyle Aborton of all people. Seventy yards in three plays.
Of course the Vikes went nowhere but you get my point, especially if you are a longtime fan. I don't want to be in a similar situation against a bona fide AFC playoff team. Can you believe that the last two NFC crapwagons we've overturned are what are known as "legitimate playoff contenders" in this year's NFL Lite, with the NFC being ultra-Lite.
While I was looking at the 2-1 stats I also checked all the and ones. Here they are and I have a few further comments to make about them. We are 2-2 with two TDs on 1-1. We are 8-13 on 3-1 and also blew one with on a pre-snap penalty. We are 3-5 on 4-1 with another one blown on a pre-snap penalty. Both of the penalties came in the Vikings game. Two of the 3-1 and 4-1 failures came consecutively in the Cleveland win and the Ravens loss, demoralizing sequences in both games. The Browns were able to take an early lead after our failure against them. The Ravens, as noted, went on to victory. Talk amongst yourselves.
Now here you have 35 plays -- 15 of them, 2-1 -- that we have been mostly successful on over the course of a so-far successful season. What could possibly be the problem with 2-1? Actually I perceive two.
First, in two of our close losses our failure to convert on 2-1 cost us key possessions. Secondly, we have failed to convert on 2-1s in our last four games and I remain concerned even though two of them were wins.
In the playoffs, every down and every yard are of magnified maximum importance. Every advantageous situation for the offense needs, well, to be taken advantage of. Yet for four games in a row we have failed to convert on the second most desirable down and distance for a football offense. An offense can do virtually anything on 2-1, right? Throw it down the field. Try a gadget play. Bang it up the gut. QB sneak. Except NOT MAKE IT. Offensive failure at that down and distance almost always has negative repercussions even if they are not readily apparent material ones.
Now here comes the real rub and guess what it is? Guess what the run/pass breakdown is for us in 2-1? I'll give you a little hint. The ratio is 14-1. Need I write more?
The NFL is a league of tendencies. Teams have them. Teams study them in other teams. In the playoffs teams more often than not run to form, to tendency. Do you think the Stillers have shown a tendency on 2-1 in 2005? Do you think playoff coaches will perceive the tendency (not to mention Romeo Crennel and Dick Jauron)? Do you think if and when a key time comes we should buck the tendency? Do you think we will? After all we have been "successful" 67% of the time on 2-1.
Walter Camp, one of the all-time great football coaches, paraphrasing Napoleon noted that in each football game there comes an unexpected moment which must be acted upon correctly and cannot be retrieved. The more important the game, the more important the moment. What if that moment for us is 2-1? Sixty-seven percent sounds good except when you are taking a test and perfection (100%) is the demand. What greater test demanding perfection is there than an NFL playoff game? Remember -- a 67% in such a test grades out to a D.