The Prophecy (Game #11)

The Steelers need to regain some swagger this week. Losing this game after the Jets debacle would be unthinkable. It would be worse not only because the Dolphins are the inferior team, but also because it�s at home. The Dolphins aren�t the most talent-depleted team in the league. There shouldn�t be any surprise this week, though.

The story of the game will be protecting Ben Roethlisberger. The Dolphins have struggled to generate a pass rush this year, but so had the Jets and Browns. Like both those teams, the Dolphins give a lot of different looks in their front 7 (similar to the Cardinals, as well). The Dolphins rotate between a 3-4 and a 4-3. Jason Taylor will stand up and play the ROLB spot. The others shift down, with Porter staying at LOLB, and the two others moving inside. Zach Thomas probably won�t play. The Dolphins are also without DE Matt Roth, who is being replaced by Vonnie Holliday. The infamous Rodrique Wright (well, at least to posters on the forums) steps in at DT and DE (in the 3-4).

Last year the Steelers handled this defense up front. It starts up front with Jason Taylor on Marvel Smith. Taylor has looked slower this year, and Smith had one of his best performances of his career against him. I�m going to assume that Smith does his job this week, as well. Roethlisberger needs to help him by getting the ball out, as well.

The rest of this group? Well, the Dolphins have similar players to the Jets. If Simmons and Mahan struggled, they could have the same problems against Vonnie Holliday and Traylor (possibly Wright, as well). Mahan has a nasty habit of getting beaten cleanly off the snap - which will kill any play. Guys are able to use a swim on him right off the snap. This is his biggest problem as the Steelers center. I would imagine people will keep trying to do it until he shows he can stop it. Simmons is a lost cause.

I�m expecting Porter to blitz frequently in this game. He is strong and quick enough to beat a back or a TE, so the Steelers need to be careful in that regard. If Colon locks up on him and can�t handle him, this team has no RT on the roster worth a damn.

The Dolphins will try to bring pressure from the outside as teams have all season. The Jets gameplan is getting a lot of exposure, but they didn�t throw anything new at the Steelers. Teams always bring outside pressure on the Steelers and try to contain Roethlisberger. Their coverage may have been superior once Roethlisberger rolled out, which may have had something to do with Mangini practicing this extensively during the week.

If the Dolphins play the Steelers like the Jets, the Steelers need to throw underneath. If they�re going to assign a spy to Roethlisberger, the Steelers need to work the deep center of the field with posts and crossing patterns. They need to throw slants and other quick passes to deal with blitzes.

The Dolphins secondary is a mess. They will give the Steelers underneath routes all day. Pass on early downs, take the underneath passes and force this defense to respect the pass. That will open up the run.

Michael Lehan is a god damn bum. If Washington can�t make plays on him, he�s worthless as a starting receiver. This guy is undisciplined, slow and small. You can catch passes over him. He�ll bite on both real and imagined fakes. The fact that he starts tells you that their other corners are just as bad. They�ve had poor safety play throughout the year.

Receivers need to catch some tough passes. Holmes has dropped a lot of deep passes this year where Roethlisberger has trusted him to make plays. Washington failed to bring down passes twice last year (one was the pick, one was with no coverage). These guys need to make plays for their QB. I think they�re capable, but the time has come to show it. Willie Reid is a guy the team needs to get the ball in space. I hope he sees the field more in these coming weeks because he has a lot of potential. He may be the third best receiver on the team, and no one realizes it.

The Dolphins give more 4-3 looks then 3-4. Simmons had a great day on Traylor last year. Traylor is a lazy sack of shit who will wear down as the game goes on. Mahan and Simmons should move him with doubles.

I think Colon could have a very nice game on Holliday. I think he�ll be able to get underneath him and drive him off the ball for most of the game.

Rodrique Wright gets pushed around and absolutely can�t handle doubles. Teams have a lot of success getting lineman to the second level on these Dolphins.

Channing Crowder is having a lousy year. He is getting manhandled by OL when they get to him and he takes bad angles. Zach Thomas is being replaced by a guy almost as small as him. I can�t say I�ve seen much of Pope, but he�s an undersized back-up. The team should run at him. When they get OL on him, he should be finished.

Joey Porter remains a smart OLB. He does his job, unlike these other LB�s. The Dolphins haven�t used him too much this year, partly because of injuries. Against the run, he does a good job holding the point against tackles and TE�s. He doesn�t get turned or give teams a lot of running lanes. People don�t always appreciate small things like that, but if everyone on a defense (as they on the Steelers) plays this way, it becomes very difficult to run.

They ran consistently on the Dolphins last year. They better do it again this year. Arians needs to help this OL with his formations and tendencies. The Steelers need to prepare for the Pats and Jaguars. They need to show that teams have to worry about something more then they have so far this year. Run out of spread formations like you promised, Arians.

The Dolphins run the same offense as the Browns (and the Jets). They should play it a lot like they played the Browns (and Jets). There�s no need to blitz a lot. Sit back and let the rookie QB self-destruct. Play a lot of cover 1 with that safety down to clog those underneath lanes and to play the run. Last week the Steelers were jumping a lot of routes. They should be very familiar with this offense at this point. They will see a lot of three wide. They get rid of the ball quick and don�t throw deep much. A lot of balls go to the backs and TE�s (though the Fins guys are a lot less threatening then Gates).

I would think the Fins will try to run some trick plays, since the Jets had some success. They need to manufacture points to have a chance.

Ginn would worry me a bit more if he had a QB throwing the ball to him. He has scary speed and cuts well. He may end up being better then Holmes. I think he can run by Townsend, and would prefer to keep Taylor on him.

Booker lacks top end speed. Townsend, Taylor and McFadden should be able to stick to him without much problem.

Mangold did not dominate Hampton. I just want to make that clear. There�s a reason the Steelers coaching staff and players are talking about the tackling (and Thomas in passing). The only reason the Jets ran on the Steelers is that no one seemed to want to tackle. Me saying this won�t change the opinion out there, but it needs to be said by someone.

This week, Hampton will be facing a day 2 pick at center who was a rookie. The guy has played better then Mangold so far in his career. If there�s a complaint I would have about a guy like Satele, it�s that he isn�t the most consistent. When he played the Pats, he had success turning Wilfork on his own. He had less success against Cleveland. I think Hampton is better than anyone he�s faced this season, but this will be an interesting battle to watch.

If there�s another problem, it may be the loss of Polamalu. I�ve already commented on the Dolphins using a good deal of 3 wides. The Steelers played a good deal of nickel last week. More than usual. I�m wondering if that didn�t have something to do with #43�s knee.

Carter can�t handle a receiver in man coverage. Tomlin talked a bit of using Townsend at safety, but whether that will happen or not is anyone�s guess. Either way, the Steelers may end up playing more nickel this week than usual.

Run defense is about 11 guys doing their job. Last week, they did a good job taking on blocks across the board. They usually took the right angles and there weren�t too many running lanes. The problem was the free defenders making the tackles.

In spite of some of these potential match-up problems, I think the Steelers defense gets the job done. I can�t explain the poor tackling last week, but it�s hard for me to see it happening again.

The Dolphins special teams are pretty terrible. They are near the bottom in kick and punt coverage. The biggest issue is Ginn, who is a threat to take it back on kicks and punts. On punts, Sepulveda needs to do what he was drafted for. I was a big fan of the selection, but I�ve been horribly disappointed with him in this regular season. Last week, his punt cost the team the game. There was no hang time or distance.

This is a gut-check week. I don�t care about the records. The Steelers need to man-up and dominate this team. I think they�ll do that.