Steelers at Browns Wrap-up, Steelers at Ravens Preview

It was all a nice warm-up for what is to come this Sunday, as the Steelers play the Ravens in what will be the biggest game of the season. There has been a lot of talk about must-win games this year, but this is the real deal. While every game needs to be won if the Steelers want to make the playoffs, this is the game that will reveal whether this team is capable of making the big run.

Since Brian Billick became the head coach of the Ravens, the Steelers have played the Ravens 14 times, and are just 8-6 in those games. In all but a single season (2002), the Steelers have split games with the Ravens. The margin of victory averages out to just under 8 points a game, and 9 of those games have been decided by 7 or less. That says it all about what happens when these two teams play. Records go out the window. Forget the Bengals or Browns - this is the real rivalry in the AFC North. The Steelers need a clean sweep of the Ravens to make the playoffs this year, and history is not on their side.

I believe if the Steelers win this game, it will fall squarely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game. The Ravens will take away the run, as they do with just about every opponent. They will play the Steelers similar to how the Raiders did, as the two teams have brother defensive coordinators who share philosophies as well as game plans. They play more of a 4-4 look much of the game, and their defensive strategy isn�t all that far-off from that of the Steelers. They will show heavy blitzes frequently, and drop back into coverage as often as they blitz. I expect a lot of stunts, as the Ravens will try to make Roethlisberger uncomfortable and confused from the start.

The best way to counter this? You have to spread a team like this out and pass on them. The no-huddle has been where the Steelers have had their best success this season. Unfortunately, it has only been used sparingly. It has a chance to catch the Ravens off guard, although there is a chance that after the Denver game (where it was used heavily), and the comeback in Cleveland that they will be more aware of it. The team has mostly used it only after falling behind heavily, so odds are slim that they will expect it from the start.

WR�s have to be ready to make plays. Their can not be miscues. Roethlisberger�s first INT against Denver seemed to have been the result of Wilson running the wrong route, and against New Orleans Nate Washington failed to recognize the blitz, costing the team a TD. The OL has also struggled at times to pick up the blitz. Early, the Steelers need to work the Ravens underneath. Get rid of the ball quickly, and force them to lay back. You can take your shots later. The Steelers need to establish something early, something they have often not been able to do this season. Early sacks and turnovers/mistakes will clearly kill them, especially in Baltimore.

I like the Steelers match-ups on the OL. Marvel Smith has been the Steelers best blocker by far so far this season, and has rarely been beaten this season. He is back to his 04 form. I expect him to control Suggs for the majority of the day. Speed rushers have given Smith fits in the past, but he has already dealt with some elite pass rushers this season. On the other side Max Starks will be seeing a familiar face in Trevor Pryce. Against the Broncos last year, he had no problem stonewalling the veteran. Things are a bit different this year, as Pryce has been rejuvenated in the Ravens defense. He has already surpassed last years sack total in Denver (6.5 this season compared to 4 last year). He has more then Suggs. Starks shouldn�t have a problem with Pryce, who has little speed (unlike a Burgess).

Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott pose the real problems. They have combined for 13 sacks so far this season. Thomas was able to pick Roethlisberger off early to start off last years game, and while having the size of a DE, is one of the most athletic members of this defense. The best way to deal with them is to either get them off the field, or keep them in coverage. If this defense can tee-off on Roethlisberger, it�s going to be a miserable day. All three of these linebackers are a threat in coverage, and have picked off passes this season. The last thing I want to see is Ray Lewis doing his moronic dance in the end zone this week�

Above all else, they need to protect the ball. WR�s have to catch the ball, unlike last week. Roethlisberger has to make good decisions. This is a ball hawking defense that leads the league in takeaways. The Steelers are an offense that has generously given up the ball more than anyone else. I trust the Steelers offense to move the ball. Turnovers are the only thing that will prevent that this week.

The Steelers will have a chance to hit some big plays. This is a very aggressive secondary, especially McAlister. Cedric Wilson has routinely been able to exploit defenders like this. People have been hard on him this season, and he hasn�t really played well. If there�s one thing he has done well for the Steelers, it�s the double-fakes. I expect to see the Steelers take some shots down field with him. Roethlisberger did a great job in last years playoffs with his pump fakes, and we�ve seen it a few times so far this season. The Steelers should have several plays designed to exploit a secondary that is too eager to make a play on the ball.

I expect them to struggle to run the ball. It�ll be up to the pass to move the ball, and the run game should be used to keep the defense honest. The key is simply not to abandon it, especially in the redzone. However, if they come out trying to impose their will on the Ravens, I don�t think there�s any chance of that happening. This defense will eat the Steelers alive.

You need to keep Parker involved in the game. He needs to be in there on third downs, and in the shotgun. He has a big time threat in a spread offense. He had success with his touches against Denver, and was able to make plays in the passing game, as well. His speed creates mismatches all over the field for the Steelers.

My faith in this defense is gone. Well, not entirely. They have been able to come up with some nice stops the past two weeks (key stops were not made in the first half of the season), and forced some turnovers. The Steelers are giving up too many big plays, and giving up too many long drives, though. What team this season hasn�t pulled off some kind of first at this point? Vick had a career day passing. Rivers had his coming out party. Both the Browns and Bengals had their longest drives of the season.

Lack of pass rush is where it all starts. I�ve said this repeatedly, I believe. McNair isn�t playing at a high level, and he hasn�t always made good decisions with the football. He does still have the arm to make the Steelers pay, and can find the wide open WR�s who seem to run all over in the secondary as QB�s are given too much time to throw. He is also a scrambler, which they have struggled with in the past. Frye was able to do a lot with his legs last week. Brees bought himself a lot of extra time in the pocket with his legs, and made big plays down field as a result. McNair is still a very tough guy to bring down, and a risk to run for a first down.

The Steelers defense has been stale this season. It�s too easy to see when they will blitz, because they show it just about every snap. The corners play off the ball pretty much all day. Last week Ike Taylor took Cowher�s advice and tried to make a play on the ball, and was burned as his completely mistimed his jump. Luckily, Polamalu was there. Can�t happen again.

I would much rather see the defense show blitz, and drop into coverage. Teams have shortened their drops and/or max-protected to keep the Steelers blitzes in check, and it has left the secondary undermanned.

The Ravens will throw some jump-balls for Clayton, especially if they get in the redzone. I also expect to see some a reverse, or possibly even a double. The Broncos and Saints both came up huge on this, and the Browns tried to imitate it last week (although it was snuffed out). I expect a lot of the same from the defense and opposing offense. I hope they prove me wrong. Then, Anthony Wright picked apart this secondary just a year ago for the Ravens.

The Ravens have a large number of weapons on offense. Heap, Clayton, and Mason is an elite combination that is matched by few teams. Each has over 40 catches, making it hard to key on any single one. They also have others below that, though. Demetrius Williams has come on some, and he can create mismatches. If there�s a surprise player in this game, it could very well be him.

Steelers will have a play or two on the football. Hopefully they can make them. Otherwise, I think it could be a long day for this secondary.

If there�s good news for the Steelers, it�s that Brian Billick is committed to the run no matter what. He wants it to be the basis of this offense. Controlling the clock and keeping the defense fresh are the aims of his strategy. He has been fairly consistent in this, and it probably won�t change this week. The Steelers run defense is the best in the league, though. No other has consistently shut teams down like they have, and I expect them make the Ravens one dimensional this week.

They have come up big for the Ravens at several crucial moments, and won them games. The Steelers have done nothing but cost the team games�I don�t like that match-up. I ask the special teams to do two things:

1. Don�t give up the football

2. Don�t give up big plays

That isn�t much. I�m curious to see what happens now that even Davenport is out. Maybe Reid will finally return to the line-up�or maybe they will actually hand full-time duty to Sean Morrey (who did fumble against the Broncos). This Ravens team is opportunistic. They are winning because they have made plays as a team. I called for them to play starters on special teams all the way back after the Altanta game, but I don�t think that is going to happen. B.J. Sams has so far been one of the leagues best return men, and I expect him to give the Ravens good field position, and probably set them up in scoring range at least once�

I can handle that�There is no excuse at all for them to be giving up the football, though. They will be trying to strip the ball from Holmes (offense included, which could be a big problem) and Morrey and whoever gets their hands on the ball. I would prefer it if Holmes just didn�t try to run with it. I really think this could cost the team the game. I�ll assume it doesn�t.

Prediction: Steelers need this game. I believe the Steelers have the better team, and I believe that Roethlisberger will do what he has to for the win. I don�t trust the defense fully, and I wish I could just get rid of the special teams. Still, the Steelers will win.