The home of die hard Pittsburgh Steelers fans. It's not just a team, it's a way of life!

Stillers-Pats Pregame Outlook

January 24, 2002 by Still Mill

20011214_ravens2-pre

Stillers vs. Pats Preview (AFC Championship)

The Stillers play host to the NE Patriots this Sunday in a showdown to determine who will represent the AFC in this year's Super Bowl.�� After a hideous 5-11 season last year, the Patriots are the surprise team of the league this year, reversing their record to 11-5 and winning the AFC East division.�� The Pats began the season 0-2, and then were 1-3, before going 10-2 the rest of the way.�� With the Stillers assuming the top seed and the AFC with their 13-3 record, and having just whipped the defending Super Bowl champs last week, this has all the look of a David vs. Goliath matchup.�� Like last week, this is playoff football, so strap on your helmet tightly, get that Iron City chilled in the fridge, get your best Stiller jersey on, and get ready for a hard-hitting game chock full of emotion and fury. For a primer on how to beat the Stillers in the playoffs, be sure to click here.

 * When the Pats have the ball, they�ll arrive with an offense that is brimming with confidence after a solid game last week despite miserable snowstorm conditions.�� The Pats didn't run the ball much, nor with great success, but the snow made it difficult for either team to run well.�� The Pats did throw 52 times, completing an impressive 32 of those while sustaining just 2 sacks (and a questionable sack/fumble that was ruled an incomplete pass).The Pats offense has morphed in an effective manner since the season's beginning.�� Back in September, the Pats planned to use the Drew Bledsoe-Terry Glenn combo to lead a passing -oriented offense.But Bledsoe's injury, along with Glenn's continual malcontent problems, forced the Pats to abandon those plans and go with a heavier diet of ground attack, led by Bills castoff Antwain Smith.And Bledsoe was capably replaced by greenhorn Tom Brady, who threw all of 3 passes in his rookie campaign last year.�� The result for the Pats was a solid, if not unspectacular, offense that was fairly efficient and effective.��

The key matchup will be Brady and the Patriots passing attack, against the Stiller defense.��� I don't expect the Pats to get much consistent production on the ground. The Pats will have to ultimately beat the Stillers through the air -- even if many of the passes are "long handoffs" on short passes to backs and TEs -- if they have any hope of controlling the clock and winning this game.

Other matchups:

Pats QB vs. Pit defense: Tom Brady has had a truly Cinderella season, going from greenhorn backup to leading the Pats to their division title.�� I've seen the Pats play a few times this season, and Brady has impressed me with his coolness and presence amidst the chaos of the pocket and amidst the pressure of big games.�� In replacing Bledsoe, Brady started slowly, as can be expected, but had a huge game in the Pats' OT win over SD in week 5, throwing for 364 yards in a game in which his leading rusher ran for 36.�� Brady is no speedster in the pocket -- he was sacked 41 times this season -- but he's a bit more mobile than an oaf like Elvis Grbac is.�� Brady hasn't necessarily seen an overall defense as good & complex as the Stillers', but he has engineered some big wins over some very capable pass defenses, to include New Orleans, NY Jets, and the Dolphins, as well as the Raiders last week.The Stillers defense must harass Brady early and often.As evidenced last week, when Bradycompleted multiple passes to 6 different receivers, the Stillers defense must be agile, focused and disciplined enough to be wary of Brady's ability to hit any eligible passcatcher on any given play.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

Pats OL vs. Pit front 7: The Pats OL is fairly young and fairly ordinary.The anchor and best lineman is the center, Damien Woody, who is among the conferences best centers.�� But after that, the experienced and ability really gets skimpy.Former Mountaineer Mike Compton is an adequate, but hardly dominating guard.RG Joe Andruzzi was undrafted from Southern Connecticut.�� What really hampers the Pats in this matchup is their two tackles.LT Matt Light, the rookie 2nd rounder from Purdue, is talented and has promise, but is still green and is on his own island in protecting Brady's blind side from the best outside pass rusher on the Stillers.�� 2nd-year RT Greg Robinson-Randall (I've always been a bit wary of men who have two last names) is a legitimate liability, due to his clumsy footwork on pass protection and overall mediocrity.�� The Stillers front 3, while unknown and unheralded amongst the NFL, had a strong season, and played extremely well in last week's dismantling of the Ravens.�� Kimo V. will give the Pats some problems, because they'll be focused on Porter's electric speed & slashing from the outside, while Kimo should have some room to slash himself.�� Hampton will have his hands full with Woody, who is as solid as wood.If Hampton can earn a draw, that will suffice.�� Aaron Smith should literally dominate this game, because Andruzzi is clearly no match and Robinson-Randall isn't agile enough to provide much help.��� The Stiller LBs should easily ward off the Patriots front line and stuff the Pats' running game.�� Expect some pressure on the outside edges, along with some middle blitzes by Bell and Jones, which have been quite effective this season.�� The one concern in the knee injury of ILB Earl Holmes.If Holmes cannot go, then John Fiala will probably fill in, with a lot of subbing from Mike Jones.Fiala is small and frail, and lacks the nose-to-the-ball instincts of Holmes, as well as the ability to ward off blockers.�� If Holmes sits, fully expect the Pats to try running the ball at Fiala.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.

Pats RB vs. Pit defense:The Stillers won't have the luxury of facing the likes of Terry Allen and Jason Brookins this week.Antwain Smith resurrected himself with a fine '01 season, rushing for 1,157 (and 4.0 yds/carry) despite playing behind a very marginal O-line.��� Smith also showed a nose for the end zone, scoring 12 TDs.�� At 6-2", 230, Smith is a big boy who can pound the ball between the tackles, and has some quickness to get outside once in a while.�� Kevin Faulk, who is built similar to Amoz Zereoue but not quite as strong, gives the Pats a good speed back who can chip in out of the backfield, as can backup running back JR Redmond, who grabbed 4 passes last week vs. Oakland.I don't expect Smith, who obviously is not the kind of slashing cut-back runner that has often hurt the Stillers, to run wild, but he will give the Stiller "D" a much sterner test than those jokers from the Ravens did last week.�� The far bigger concern in this matchup is the Stiller defense covering the RBs out of the backfield, and limiting their RAC yardage once they catch the ball.�� Smith and Redmond each averaged over 10 YPC this season, so they've been effectively used in this manner throughout the season.�� The Stiller defense can be burned by slick passing to the backs, and Faulk and Redmond present problems because of their quickness.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin in rushing;Advantage:Pats, by a slim margin in receiving.

Pats FB vs. Pit defense: Marc Edwards gives the Pats what Stiller fans claim Jon Witman is -- "an all-around FB who can do it all".��� Edwards isn't Bronco Nagurski, and I'm usually not very laudatory about Notre Flame alums, but he is a fine all around FB who blocks solidly, runs ok, and catches the ball very well out of the backfield.�� Eddie had 25 grabs in '01, including 2 TDs.�� He's not as tough at the point of attack as someone like a Dan Kreider, but he is stout and capable of rudely smacking a defender in the chops.�� Edwards will be an extremely useful tool for the Patriots offense this week, because he gives the Pats a triad of capabilities the Ravens clearly did not have and desperately needed last week:a tough lead blocker for running plays; a tough, reliable blocker for blitz pickups; and a capable, reliable, trusted receiver out of the backfield.�� The Stiller LB corps will have to play tough against Eddie on both the ground and the air.�� Advantage:Even.

Pats TE vs. Pit. LB/SS:Jermaine Wiggins had a monster game last week against Oakland, grabbing 10 passes and serving as a trusty security blanket for Brady.�� Wiggins is hardly a dominating blocker.�� For whatever reason, the Ravens were reluctant to get TE Shannon Sharpe involved that much last week, but expect that to change with Brady and Wiggins, especially because Wiggins should be open on short tosses against the blitz.�� The Stillers have had problems all season long with covering the TEs, and nightmares of Alfred Papunu still awaken me from time to time.�� Advantage: Even.

Pats WR vs. Pit DB:Patriot WR Troy Brown had a truly outstanding season, grabbing 101 passes for nearly 1,200 yards.�� As evidenced by his smallish 12 YPC average, Brown isn't a downfield threat, but more so a short and medium threat in the mold of Hines Ward.�� With Glenn rightfully booted off the team, David Patten assumed the starting chores, and had a very solid season, averaging nearly 15 YPC.�� Former Stiller Charles Johnson is a backup WR, and he'd probably enjoy nothing more than sticking it to his former team with a clutch reception or two.But neither CJ nor 4th WR Fred Coleman are involved that much, so virtually the entire bulk of work will be done by just the two starting receivers.�� The Stiller secondary had a fairly strong season, but also had some games down the stretch in which they took some severe burnings. Likewise, Chad and DeWayne were both on their way toward pro bowl caliber seasons, until both took abuse and beatings. Brent Alexander did a solid job at FS, and key reserves Mike Logan and DeShea Townsend provided good coverage in the dime and the nickel. Chad and DW are both prone to biting on the stop-and-go and on the short stuff, and they�ll need to be wary of Brady, who has shown much more savvy than one would expect from a man of his limited experience.If the Pats were willing to throw the ball 52 times in a driving snowstorm, they'll have no hesitation in throwing nearly that many times against the Stillers, so the entire secondary had better eat its Wheaties that morning.Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

* When the Stillers have the ball, they�ll presumably have The Bus back in action after his 7-week hiatus that included last week's faulty pain injection.Frankly, I was nearly elated that Bettis couldn't play last week, because the Ravens defense is so quick and Bettis would probably have been a bit slow.But the Pats offer a far different kind of defense -- one that is susceptible to getting the ball jammed down their throats on occasion.�� The Stillers will look to pound the ball on the ground with Bettis, and mix in some speedier running plays with Stew and Amoz.�� The Stillers air attack is clicking at an optimum level, so they'll look to keep the Pats guessing with their passing game.��

�� The key matchup will be the Stiller ground game against the so-so Pats front 7.�� The Pats finished 10th in the conference in rushing defense, so they are ripe for the taking against a strong Stiller ground attack.��

Other matchups:

Pit OL vs. Pats front 7: The Pats front 7 has some familiar names and some good veteran experience.�� Rookie first-rounder Richard Seymour has had a solid season at DE.�� Former Jet Anthony Pleasant is an old Belichick employee from both Cleveland and the Jets.Pleasant is a tough over-achiever who is getting a bit old, but still plays hard.DE Bobby Hamilton is another Belichick cronie from the Jets, who is solid but unspectacular.�� The LB corps has been riddled with injuries to Ted Johnson, Andy Katzenmoyer, and Bryan Cox.This has forced the ever-tough, but undersized Tedy Bruschi to man the middle, flanked by former Stiller Mike Vrabel and cagey veteran Roman Phifer.�� Vrabel, who was lost in the Stillers' ridiculous shuffling between DE and OLB, has finally been given the opportunity to play OLB on a daily basis, and he responded with a very solid season.�� Facing his former mates, Vrabel will be playing with a lot of fire and passion.�� Phifer is getting a bit long in the tooth, but was a good FA pickup by the Pats.�� Bruschi is out of position at MLB, but with the injuries to those other 3 LBs, the Pats really have no choice.Bruschi is a tough, tenacious warrior, and he'll give everything he's got on Sunday.�� Cox & Johnson will provide some occasional relief to the LB corps.�� The Stillers O-line had a pretty strong showing last week against what may be the best front 7 in the NFL.�� The Pats will probably try to mimic the success the Ravens had in the 3rd quarter, when they increased their dosage of blitzing and bottled up the Stiller offense rather handily.�� Because of age and some undersized players, this Patriot front 7 cannot expect to go toe-to-toe with the Stillers rugged O-line, so they'll need to pull a variety of run-blitzes -- something the Patriots first perfected against the Stillers back in the '97 season -- if they have any hope of avoiding a steamrolling.��� The right side of the Stillers O-line remains the question mark, and the Pats should try to exploit that on Sunday.Advantage: Stillers, by a large margin.

Pit QB vs. Pats defense: Kordell Stewart is coming off a strong effort last week in which he wasn't prolific in the passing game, but very effective, and is brimming with confidence and leadership.Even the first quarter INT last week -- which in prior seasons may have shattered Stew's confidence -- did nothing negative to Stew's demeanor.�� Because the Pats like to drop as many as 7 men into coverage and mix in much more "cover 2" instead of straight-up "man for man", Stew will see a lot more complexities than he saw last week, or at any point in the season except for perhaps the Tampa game.The Pats are also more likely to maintain discipline in their rushing lanes, making Stew's designed keepers and improvised scrambles a bit more difficult to accomplish.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

Pit RB vs. Pats defense: Jerome Bettis will be back in the lineup, and will get a majority of the workload.�� As I listed in my primer, I�ve got my concerns with Bettis� return. Any time a star player returns to the lineup, there�s a tendency for his teammates to ease up with the theory of, "Well, he�s back, and if we did so well without him, now we can really do well without half trying." The result is often a bad case of stand-arounditis, which happened in the blowout playoff loss to New England 5 years ago. I�m also concerned with Bettis� conditioning and quickness. Bettis, hardly a workout warrior, has had the long layoff, along with appearing on the Letterman Show and other extravaganzas.The Pats don't have the brawn or skill of the Ravens defense, so they may throw all caution to the wind and try to give Bettis problems with a variety of run-blitz schemes.�� The related concern would then be the overuse of Bettis on the Whaleshit Counter, long a favorite staple of the Steeler offense.The play takes too long to develop and Bettis�s shoulders are parallel -- not perpendicular -- to the LOS. Bettis needs to be used more often in quick hitting plays between the tackles, where he can hit the hole quickly & squarely and barge for extra yardage against an undersized Pats front 7.Amoz Zereoue had a strong effort last week, and hopefully will get more work than only the occasional SG draw or 3rd-and-9 screen pass.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a large margin.

Pit FB vs. Pats LB:Dan Kreider showed the entire football world last week why he is head and shoulders above anyone on the Stiller roster in doing the blocking chores from the FB spot.�� Kreider crushed Ray Lewis with a vicious pancake block.�� (If you got stomped like that, you'd probably be groggy enough to wear that hideous fur-ball coat to the post-game press conference.)�� Nonetheless, the Stillers have gotten into an inexplicable scheme of starting Jon Witman, and then gradually phasing in Kreider in the 2nd half.Because of the Pats personnel and scheme, the FB will be busy in taking on the aggressive play of the Patriot LBs.�� Advantage:Stillers, by a slim margin.

Pit WR vs. Pats DB:The Pats bring in one of the better overall secondaries the Stillers have faced this season.�� The numbers don't show it, of course, because the Pats finished 13th in the AFC in passing defense.�� Pittsburgh native Ty Law is one of the NFL's best all-around corners.�� Law is talented, tough, athletic, and instinctive.�� Otis Smith, who works the other corner, isn't nearly as good as Law, but is adequate.�� SS Lawyer Milloy led his team in tackles, so he's not one to avoid hitting.����� Milloy and FS Tebucky Jones are not speed merchants, and neither is an overly gifted cover-man.�� Terrell Buckley gives adequate help as a nickel back.�� The Pats won't hesitate to use a dime and even a dollar (7 DB) defense to confuse and bottle the Stiller WRcorps.�� Plex and Ward will probably see a mix of zone coverage, combined with some jamming up at the LOS.�� The Pats secondary likes to keep everything in front of them, but Plex still should be able to go up and get a deep ball against an average-sized group of DBs.�� Ward, Shaw, and Edwards should find some seams and soft spots in the Pats' zone defense, especially on crossing routes, seam routes, and criss-cross routes amongst one another.��� Shaw and Edwards weren't needed much last week and each caught only one ball, but against a more varied NE defense, each will be called upon more this Sunday.Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.

Pit TEvs. Pats LB/SS:The Stillers hardly ever throw to their TE, as evidenced last week, when the only pass to a TE was a 2-yard out that was picked off.�� Ergo, there's not really a matchup to discuss, although I will point out that starting TE Jerame Tuman's blocking last week was very solid, and he's come a long way since throwing his first NFL block back in October.��

* Spec Teams: The Pats have pretty solid all-around spec teams.�� Troy Brown is an ultra-dangerous punt returner who returned 2 punts for TDs in '01, and after watching Jermaine Lewis go 88 yards untouched last week against the Stillers, Brown is probably foaming at the mouth with the thought of returning punts against the league's worst special teams unit.�� K. Faulk gives the Pats solid production on KO returns.�� Adam Vinatieri performed perhaps the most clutch placekicking in NFL playoff history last week, calmly nailing a 46-yarder in the snowstorm to send the game to OT, and then booting the game-winner a short while later.�� Vinatieri had a solid season, and has been pretty reliable.�� Punter Ken Walter was a mid-season signee, replacing struggling Lee Johnson.�� Walter was mediocre, at best, and is probably the lone weak link in the NE spec teams.�� The Stiller spec teams have been downright shameful in �01. The coverage has been downright pitiful, highlighted by last week's 88-yard punt return by Lewis.�� The return game has gotten some renewed production with the emergence of Troy Edwards, who repeatedly got good yardage on punt and KO returns last week.�� Edwards is a bit scary, due to his penchant of bread-loafing the ball and coughing it up upon being hit.�� Kris Brown had his struggles in '01, but responded with a solid performance last week, making 2 of 3 FGs, with the only miss being a slight hook that just missed being good.�� It seems Kris has fully eradicated the punchy-style "half kicks" that had been troubling him the past 10 weeks.�� The Stillers have allowed an inordinate number of punts and placekicks to be blocked, and Josh Miller loves verifying Tagliabue's signature every time he punts the ball, so don't rush to the fridge during any Stiller punt or placekick.��� Advantage: Pats, by a large margin.

*Coaching:

Pats OC vs. Pit DC: Charlie Weis has had an impressive season, taking chicken crap and making a decent blend of chicken salad.�� He's got a marginal O-line, a castoff RB, only 1 good WR, and a greenhorn 2nd year QB, yet Weis has molded this motley collection into a solid, productive unit.�� Weis has got to be fearful of the Stiller blitz, combined with Brady's lack of speed, so he'll mostly look to exploit the Stillers with a host of short and medium passes to the TE, backs, and their two receivers.�� The Stiller CBs are prone to biting on the pump fake, so Weis may order Brady to run a couple of these in critical situations, which will momentarily freeze the LBs and allow Brady the extra time to take a deep stab. Tim Lewis has had a good season, but has also had the luxury all season of facing some of the league�s most incompetent, bumbling offenses, and most of the worst QBs. Yet, even at that, the Stiller defense has taken its share of burns and scorchings. Lewis is prone to go vanilla at times, and is also prone to take the heat off the opposing QB and play a "sit back" defense.��� Brady is far, far more capable than Grbac, and is perfectly capable of shredding any defense if he's not harried and harassed.�� Advantage:Even.

Pats DC vs. Pit OC:Romeo Crennel had to deal with the season-ending loss of Katzenmoeyer, along with nagging injuries to Cox and Johnson.��� Crennel doesn't have a wealth of talent to work with, but he devised a good scheme to limit the Raiders ever-so-dangerous corps of receivers in last week's big win.Crennel's biggest challenge is two-fold:slow down the Stiller ground game with quickness and blitzing; and confuse the Stiller passing offense with a host of zone coverages.�� If he can do both of these with some effectiveness, the Pats have a chance to compete.�� Crennel's personnel quandary will revolve around the use of leading tackler Lawyer Malloy.Should Malloy play near the LOS as an extra LB to bottle up the run, or will that open up too much space for Plex and Ward?�� Mike Mularkey has had a very good season in his first year as OC. He took the shackles from Stewart�s legs and allowed him to do what he does best. He�s also gotten the ball downfield to Burress, and has mixed in Shaw and Edwards nicely in the 4-WR sets.Mularkey's sequence of plays on the first series last week on a 1st & goal from the 6, in which he called 3 consecutive plunges, was outrageously Neanderthal and overly imbecilic, but Muarleky snapped out of his funk thereafter with some solid playcalling.�� Mularkey needs to keep Kordell on the move, and unlike last weekmore than one rollout should be called.Mularkey also needs to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers -- Ward, AZ, Plex, Edwards, and Shaw.�� The Pats defense is the classic rubber-band defense -- bend but don't break -- but Mularkey can't be content and be lulled into only getting a few first downs and punting with regularity.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.

Head Coach:Without question, the NFL coach of the year was none other than Bill Belichick, who took a moribund, rag-tag 5-11 team and led it to a 11-5 season.�� And Belichick did this amidst the storm of losing his top QB to injury; having to ultimately boot off his top WR from the squad; and surviving a rash of injuries that make the Pats training room look like a MASH unit.�� What makes Belichick click is -- like Bill Parcells -- the unusually large number of guys who've gone to battle with him before.�� 16 Patriots have been with Belichick before, along with 5 assistants.�� Belichick's forte is defense, and if there's anyone out there who can slow down this Stillers offense, its Bill Belichick.�� This is the 4th time Cowher has hosted an AFC Championship game, and all 3 previous ones were unmitigated disasters.�� Even the one AFC title game that he won -- over Indy in Jan. '96 -- was an entirely sloppy effort against one of the truly weakest teams to ever advance to a conference title game.�� Cowher's overt imbecility late in the first half last week -- in which he squandered field position on his 41-yard line with 44 seconds remaining without even trying to move into nearby FG position -- is precisely the kind of timid, "lets keep it close" mentality that led to all previous three slop fests in the conference championship.Advantage:Pats, by a slim margin.

Strength of Schedule:The Pats played 6 games against eventual playoff opponents, while the Stillers played just 4.�� The Stillers won 3 of 4, losing once to the Ravens.The Pats were 3-3, but that stat is a bit misleading, as two of those losses were early in the season, in weeks 2 & 4, when the Pats were still trying to gel.�� The other loss was against the Rams, whom the Pats played tough before succumbing 24-17.�� The best team the Stillers played all year was the mighty Ravens, who turned out to be more chump than champ.�� Clearly, the Pats have played a more rigorous slate than the Stillers.�� Advantage:Pats, by a medium margin.

* Synopsis: This has all the markings of another whipping by the Stillers.The only matchup the Pats have an advantage is on spec teams.��� Otherwise, the Stillers personnel have either a decent advantage, or in some cases, a dominant advantage, over the Patsies.�� On paper, this has the look and feel of a thorough 30-10 thrashing by the home-field Stillers.�� Problem is, the game isn't played on paper.�� On paper, the home-field Stillers had enormous advantages in virtually every position over both the Chargers in '95 and Colts in '96, yet lost one game and barely won the other.�� Cowher has always been good at whipping his team into an angry frenzy against hated division rivals, but against teams that don't bring that familiarity and hatred, the frenzy is often minimal.After some struggle and fight from the Pats early on, the Stillers should handily win this game.But I cannot, in good conscience as a sports writer, ignore the time-honored preparation, leadership, and in-game decision-making deficiencies of a Bill Cowher coached playoff team.�� The Pats will keep this game close enough to remain in striking distance, and pull out a heroic 4th quarter comeback to advance to the Super Bowl with a win over the Stillers, 23-19.��

 

Like this? Share it with friends: Follow me on Twitter: