Stillers vs. Pats Preview (AFC Championship)
The Stillers play host to the NE Patriots
this Sunday in a showdown to determine who will represent the AFC in this
year's Super Bowl.�� After a hideous 5-11
season last year, the Patriots are the surprise team of the league this year,
reversing their record to 11-5 and winning the AFC East division.�� The Pats began the season 0-2, and then
were 1-3, before going 10-2 the rest of the way.�� With the Stillers assuming the top seed and the AFC with their
13-3 record, and having just whipped the defending Super Bowl champs last week,
this has all the look of a David vs. Goliath matchup.�� Like last week, this is playoff football, so strap on your
helmet tightly, get that Iron City chilled in the fridge, get your best Stiller
jersey on, and get ready for a hard-hitting game chock full of emotion and
fury. For a primer on how to beat the Stillers in the playoffs, be sure to click here.
* When the Pats have the ball,
they�ll arrive with an offense that is brimming with confidence after a solid
game last week despite miserable snowstorm conditions.�� The Pats didn't run the ball much, nor with
great success, but the snow made it difficult for either team to run well.�� The Pats did throw 52 times, completing an
impressive 32 of those while sustaining just 2 sacks (and a questionable
sack/fumble that was ruled an incomplete pass).� The Pats offense has morphed in an effective manner since the
season's beginning.�� Back in September,
the Pats planned to use the Drew Bledsoe-Terry Glenn combo to lead a passing
-oriented offense.� But Bledsoe's
injury, along with Glenn's continual malcontent problems, forced the Pats to
abandon those plans and go with a heavier diet of ground attack, led by Bills
castoff Antwain Smith.� And Bledsoe was
capably replaced by greenhorn Tom Brady, who threw all of 3 passes in his rookie
campaign last year.�� The result for the
Pats was a solid, if not unspectacular, offense that was fairly efficient and
effective.��
�
The key matchup will be Brady
and the Patriots passing attack, against the Stiller defense.��� I don't expect the Pats to get much
consistent production on the ground. The Pats will have to ultimately beat the
Stillers through the air -- even if many of the passes are "long
handoffs" on short passes to backs and TEs -- if they have any hope of
controlling the clock and winning this game.�
Other matchups:
Pats QB vs. Pit defense: Tom Brady has had a truly Cinderella season, going
from greenhorn backup to leading the Pats to their division title.�� I've seen the Pats play a few times this
season, and Brady has impressed me with his coolness and presence amidst the
chaos of the pocket and amidst the pressure of big games.�� In replacing Bledsoe, Brady started slowly,
as can be expected, but had a huge game in the Pats' OT win over SD in week 5,
throwing for 364 yards in a game in which his leading rusher ran for 36.�� Brady is no speedster in the pocket -- he
was sacked 41 times this season -- but he's a bit more mobile than an oaf like
Elvis Grbac is.�� Brady hasn't
necessarily seen an overall defense as good & complex as the Stillers', but
he has engineered some big wins over some very capable pass defenses, to
include New Orleans, NY Jets, and the Dolphins, as well as the Raiders last
week.� The Stillers defense must harass
Brady early and often.� As evidenced
last week, when Brady� completed
multiple passes to 6 different receivers, the Stillers defense must be agile,
focused and disciplined enough to be wary of Brady's ability to hit any
eligible passcatcher on any given play.��
Advantage: Stillers, by a slim margin.
Pats OL vs. Pit front 7: The Pats OL is fairly young and fairly ordinary.� The anchor and best lineman is the center,
Damien Woody, who is among the conferences best centers.�� But after that, the experienced and ability
really gets skimpy.� Former Mountaineer
Mike Compton is an adequate, but hardly dominating guard.� RG Joe Andruzzi was undrafted from Southern
Connecticut.�� What really hampers the
Pats in this matchup is their two tackles.�
LT Matt Light, the rookie 2nd rounder from Purdue, is talented and has
promise, but is still green and is on his own island in protecting Brady's
blind side from the best outside pass rusher on the Stillers.�� 2nd-year RT Greg Robinson-Randall (I've
always been a bit wary of men who have two last names) is a legitimate liability,
due to his clumsy footwork on pass protection and overall mediocrity.�� The Stillers front 3, while unknown and
unheralded amongst the NFL, had a strong season, and played extremely well in
last week's dismantling of the Ravens.��
Kimo V. will give the Pats some problems, because they'll be focused on
Porter's electric speed & slashing from the outside, while Kimo should have
some room to slash himself.�� Hampton
will have his hands full with Woody, who is as solid as wood.� If Hampton can earn a draw, that will
suffice.�� Aaron Smith should literally
dominate this game, because Andruzzi is clearly no match and Robinson-Randall
isn't agile enough to provide much help.���
The Stiller LBs should easily ward off the Patriots front line and stuff
the Pats' running game.�� Expect some
pressure on the outside edges, along with some middle blitzes by Bell and
Jones, which have been quite effective this season.�� The one concern in the knee injury of ILB Earl Holmes.� If Holmes cannot go, then John Fiala will
probably fill in, with a lot of subbing from Mike Jones.� Fiala is small and frail, and lacks the
nose-to-the-ball instincts of Holmes, as well as the ability to ward off
blockers.�� If Holmes sits, fully expect
the Pats to try running the ball at Fiala.��
Advantage: Stillers, by a medium margin.
Pats RB vs. Pit defense:� The Stillers
won't have the luxury of facing the likes of Terry Allen and Jason Brookins
this week.� Antwain Smith resurrected
himself with a fine '01 season, rushing for 1,157 (and 4.0 yds/carry) despite
playing behind a very marginal O-line.���
Smith also showed a nose for the end zone, scoring 12 TDs.�� At 6-2", 230, Smith is a big boy who
can pound the ball between the tackles, and has some quickness to get outside
once in a while.�� Kevin Faulk, who is
built similar to Amoz Zereoue but not quite as strong, gives the Pats a good
speed back who can chip in out of the backfield, as can backup running back JR
Redmond, who grabbed 4 passes last week vs. Oakland.� I don't expect Smith, who obviously is not the kind of slashing
cut-back runner that has often hurt the Stillers, to run wild, but he will give
the Stiller "D" a much sterner test than those jokers from the Ravens
did last week.�� The far bigger concern
in this matchup is the Stiller defense covering the RBs out of the backfield,
and limiting their RAC yardage once they catch the ball.�� Smith and Redmond each averaged over 10 YPC
this season, so they've been effectively used in this manner throughout the
season.�� The Stiller defense can be
burned by slick passing to the backs, and Faulk and Redmond present problems
because of their quickness.�� Advantage:
Stillers, by a medium margin in rushing;� Advantage:� Pats,
by a slim margin in receiving.�
Pats FB vs. Pit defense: Marc Edwards gives the Pats what Stiller fans claim Jon
Witman is -- "an all-around FB who can do it all".��� Edwards isn't Bronco Nagurski, and I'm
usually not very laudatory about Notre Flame alums, but he is a fine all around
FB who blocks solidly, runs ok, and catches the ball very well out of the
backfield.�� Eddie had 25 grabs in '01,
including 2 TDs.�� He's not as tough at
the point of attack as someone like a Dan Kreider, but he is stout and capable
of rudely smacking a defender in the chops.��
Edwards will be an extremely useful tool for the Patriots offense this
week, because he gives the Pats a triad of capabilities the Ravens clearly did
not have and desperately needed last week:�
a tough lead blocker for running plays; a tough, reliable blocker for
blitz pickups; and a capable, reliable, trusted receiver out of the
backfield.�� The Stiller LB corps will
have to play tough against Eddie on both the ground and the air.�� Advantage:� Even.
Pats TE vs. Pit. LB/SS:� Jermaine
Wiggins had a monster game last week against Oakland, grabbing 10 passes and serving
as a trusty security blanket for Brady.��
Wiggins is hardly a dominating blocker.�� For whatever reason, the Ravens were reluctant to get TE Shannon
Sharpe involved that much last week, but expect that to change with Brady and
Wiggins, especially because Wiggins should be open on short tosses against the
blitz.�� The Stillers have had problems
all season long with covering the TEs, and nightmares of Alfred Papunu still
awaken me from time to time.�� Advantage:
Even.
Pats WR vs. Pit DB:� Patriot WR
Troy Brown had a truly outstanding season, grabbing 101 passes for nearly 1,200
yards.�� As evidenced by his smallish 12
YPC average, Brown isn't a downfield threat, but more so a short and medium
threat in the mold of Hines Ward.�� With
Glenn rightfully booted off the team, David Patten assumed the starting chores,
and had a very solid season, averaging nearly 15 YPC.�� Former Stiller Charles Johnson is a backup WR, and he'd probably
enjoy nothing more than sticking it to his former team with a clutch reception
or two.� But neither CJ nor 4th WR Fred
Coleman are involved that much, so virtually the entire bulk of work will be
done by just the two starting receivers.��
The Stiller secondary had a fairly strong season, but also had some
games down the stretch in which they took some severe burnings. Likewise, Chad
and DeWayne were both on their way toward pro bowl caliber seasons, until both
took abuse and beatings. Brent Alexander did a solid job at FS, and key
reserves Mike Logan and DeShea Townsend provided good coverage in the dime and
the nickel. Chad and DW are both prone to biting on the stop-and-go and on the
short stuff, and they�ll need to be wary of Brady, who has shown much more
savvy than one would expect from a man of his limited experience.� If the Pats were willing to throw the ball
52 times in a driving snowstorm, they'll have no hesitation in throwing nearly
that many times against the Stillers, so the entire secondary had better eat
its Wheaties that morning.� Advantage:
Stillers, by a slim margin.
* When the Stillers have the ball, they�ll presumably have The Bus back in action after
his 7-week hiatus that included last week's faulty pain injection.� Frankly, I was nearly elated that Bettis
couldn't play last week, because the Ravens defense is so quick and Bettis
would probably have been a bit slow.�
But the Pats offer a far different kind of defense -- one that is
susceptible to getting the ball jammed down their throats on occasion.�� The Stillers will look to pound the ball on
the ground with Bettis, and mix in some speedier running plays with Stew and
Amoz.�� The Stillers air attack is
clicking at an optimum level, so they'll look to keep the Pats guessing with
their passing game.��
��
The key matchup will be the
Stiller ground game against the so-so Pats front 7.�� The Pats finished 10th in the conference in rushing defense, so
they are ripe for the taking against a strong Stiller ground attack.��
Other matchups:
Pit OL vs. Pats front 7: The Pats front 7 has some familiar names and some
good veteran experience.�� Rookie
first-rounder Richard Seymour has had a solid season at DE.�� Former Jet Anthony Pleasant is an old
Belichick employee from both Cleveland and the Jets.� Pleasant is a tough over-achiever who is getting a bit old, but
still plays hard.� DE Bobby Hamilton is
another Belichick cronie from the Jets, who is solid but unspectacular.�� The LB corps has been riddled with injuries
to Ted Johnson, Andy Katzenmoyer, and Bryan Cox.� This has forced the ever-tough, but undersized Tedy Bruschi to
man the middle, flanked by former Stiller Mike Vrabel and cagey veteran Roman
Phifer.�� Vrabel, who was lost in the
Stillers' ridiculous shuffling between DE and OLB, has finally been given the
opportunity to play OLB on a daily basis, and he responded with a very solid
season.�� Facing his former mates,
Vrabel will be playing with a lot of fire and passion.�� Phifer is getting a bit long in the tooth,
but was a good FA pickup by the Pats.��
Bruschi is out of position at MLB, but with the injuries to those other
3 LBs, the Pats really have no choice.�
Bruschi is a tough, tenacious warrior, and he'll give everything he's
got on Sunday.�� Cox & Johnson will
provide some occasional relief to the LB corps.�� The Stillers O-line had a pretty strong showing last week
against what may be the best front 7 in the NFL.�� The Pats will probably try to mimic the success the Ravens had
in the 3rd quarter, when they increased their dosage of blitzing and bottled up
the Stiller offense rather handily.��
Because of age and some undersized players, this Patriot front 7 cannot
expect to go toe-to-toe with the Stillers rugged O-line, so they'll need to
pull a variety of run-blitzes -- something the Patriots first perfected against
the Stillers back in the '97 season -- if they have any hope of avoiding a
steamrolling.��� The right side of the
Stillers O-line remains the question mark, and the Pats should try to exploit
that on Sunday.� Advantage:
Stillers, by a large margin.
Pit QB vs. Pats defense: Kordell Stewart is coming off a strong effort last
week in which he wasn't prolific in the passing game, but very effective, and
is brimming with confidence and leadership.�
Even the first quarter INT last week -- which in prior seasons may have
shattered Stew's confidence -- did nothing negative to Stew's demeanor.�� Because the Pats like to drop as many as 7
men into coverage and mix in much more "cover 2" instead of
straight-up "man for man", Stew will see a lot more complexities than
he saw last week, or at any point in the season except for perhaps the Tampa
game.� The Pats are also more likely to
maintain discipline in their rushing lanes, making Stew's designed keepers and
improvised scrambles a bit more difficult to accomplish.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a slim
margin.
Pit RB vs. Pats defense: Jerome Bettis will be back in the lineup, and will
get a majority of the workload.�� As I
listed in my primer, I�ve got my concerns with Bettis� return. Any time a
star player returns to the lineup, there�s a tendency for his teammates to ease
up with the theory of, "Well, he�s back, and if we did so well without
him, now we can really do well without half trying." The result is often a
bad case of stand-arounditis, which happened in the blowout playoff loss to New
England 5 years ago. I�m also concerned with Bettis� conditioning and
quickness. Bettis, hardly a workout warrior, has had the long layoff, along
with appearing on the Letterman Show and other extravaganzas.� The Pats don't have the brawn or skill of
the Ravens defense, so they may throw all caution to the wind and try to give
Bettis problems with a variety of run-blitz schemes.�� The related concern would then be the overuse of Bettis on the
Whaleshit Counter, long a favorite staple of the Steeler offense.� The play takes too long to develop and
Bettis�s shoulders are parallel -- not perpendicular -- to the LOS. Bettis
needs to be used more often in quick hitting plays between the tackles, where
he can hit the hole quickly & squarely and barge for extra yardage against
an undersized Pats front 7.� Amoz
Zereoue had a strong effort last week, and hopefully will get more work than
only the occasional SG draw or 3rd-and-9 screen pass.�� Advantage: Stillers, by a large margin.
Pit FB vs. Pats LB:� Dan Kreider
showed the entire football world last week why he is head and shoulders above
anyone on the Stiller roster in doing the blocking chores from the FB
spot.�� Kreider crushed Ray Lewis with a
vicious pancake block.�� (If you got
stomped like that, you'd probably be groggy enough to wear that hideous
fur-ball coat to the post-game press conference.)�� Nonetheless, the Stillers have gotten into an inexplicable
scheme of starting Jon Witman, and then gradually phasing in Kreider in the 2nd
half.� Because of the Pats personnel and
scheme, the FB will be busy in taking on the aggressive play of the Patriot
LBs.�� Advantage:� Stillers, by a slim margin.
Pit WR vs. Pats DB:� The Pats
bring in one of the better overall secondaries the Stillers have faced this
season.�� The numbers don't show it, of
course, because the Pats finished 13th in the AFC in passing defense.�� Pittsburgh native Ty Law is one of the
NFL's best all-around corners.�� Law is
talented, tough, athletic, and instinctive.��
Otis Smith, who works the other corner, isn't nearly as good as Law, but
is adequate.�� SS Lawyer Milloy led his
team in tackles, so he's not one to avoid hitting.����� Milloy and FS Tebucky Jones are not speed merchants, and
neither is an overly gifted cover-man.��
Terrell Buckley gives adequate help as a nickel back.�� The Pats won't hesitate to use a dime and
even a dollar (7 DB) defense to confuse and bottle the Stiller WR� corps.��
Plex and Ward will probably see a mix of zone coverage, combined with
some jamming up at the LOS.�� The Pats
secondary likes to keep everything in front of them, but Plex still should be
able to go up and get a deep ball against an average-sized group of DBs.�� Ward, Shaw, and Edwards should find some
seams and soft spots in the Pats' zone defense, especially on crossing routes,
seam routes, and criss-cross routes amongst one another.��� Shaw and Edwards weren't needed much last
week and each caught only one ball, but against a more varied NE defense, each
will be called upon more this Sunday.� Advantage:
Stillers, by a medium margin.
Pit TE�
vs. Pats LB/SS:� The Stillers hardly ever throw to their TE,
as evidenced last week, when the only pass to a TE was a 2-yard out that was
picked off.�� Ergo, there's not really a
matchup to discuss, although I will point out that starting TE Jerame Tuman's
blocking last week was very solid, and he's come a long way since throwing his
first NFL block back in October.��
* Spec Teams: The Pats have pretty solid all-around spec
teams.�� Troy Brown is an
ultra-dangerous punt returner who returned 2 punts for TDs in '01, and after
watching Jermaine Lewis go 88 yards untouched last week against the Stillers,
Brown is probably foaming at the mouth with the thought of returning punts
against the league's worst special teams unit.�� K. Faulk gives the Pats solid production on KO returns.�� Adam Vinatieri performed perhaps the most
clutch placekicking in NFL playoff history last week, calmly nailing a
46-yarder in the snowstorm to send the game to OT, and then booting the
game-winner a short while later.��
Vinatieri had a solid season, and has been pretty reliable.�� Punter Ken Walter was a mid-season signee,
replacing struggling Lee Johnson.��
Walter was mediocre, at best, and is probably the lone weak link in the
NE spec teams.�� The Stiller spec teams
have been downright shameful in �01. The coverage has been downright pitiful,
highlighted by last week's 88-yard punt return by Lewis.�� The return game has gotten some renewed
production with the emergence of Troy Edwards, who repeatedly got good yardage
on punt and KO returns last week.��
Edwards is a bit scary, due to his penchant of bread-loafing the ball
and coughing it up upon being hit.��
Kris Brown had his struggles in '01, but responded with a solid
performance last week, making 2 of 3 FGs, with the only miss being a slight
hook that just missed being good.�� It
seems Kris has fully eradicated the punchy-style "half kicks" that had
been troubling him the past 10 weeks.��
The Stillers have allowed an inordinate number of punts and placekicks
to be blocked, and Josh Miller loves verifying Tagliabue's signature every time
he punts the ball, so don't rush to the fridge during any Stiller punt or
placekick.��� Advantage: Pats, by
a large margin.
*Coaching:
Pats OC vs. Pit DC: Charlie Weis has had an impressive season, taking
chicken crap and making a decent blend of chicken salad.�� He's got a marginal O-line, a castoff RB,
only 1 good WR, and a greenhorn 2nd year QB, yet Weis has molded this motley
collection into a solid, productive unit.��
Weis has got to be fearful of the Stiller blitz, combined with Brady's
lack of speed, so he'll mostly look to exploit the Stillers with a host of
short and medium passes to the TE, backs, and their two receivers.�� The Stiller CBs are prone to biting on the
pump fake, so Weis may order Brady to run a couple of these in critical
situations, which will momentarily freeze the LBs and allow Brady the extra
time to take a deep stab. Tim Lewis has had a good season, but has also had the
luxury all season of facing some of the league�s most incompetent, bumbling
offenses, and most of the worst QBs. Yet, even at that, the Stiller defense has
taken its share of burns and scorchings. Lewis is prone to go vanilla at times,
and is also prone to take the heat off the opposing QB and play a "sit
back" defense.��� Brady is far, far
more capable than Grbac, and is perfectly capable of shredding any defense if
he's not harried and harassed.�� Advantage:� Even.
Pats DC vs. Pit OC:� Romeo Crennel
had to deal with the season-ending loss of Katzenmoeyer, along with nagging
injuries to Cox and Johnson.��� Crennel
doesn't have a wealth of talent to work with, but he devised a good scheme to
limit the Raiders ever-so-dangerous corps of receivers in last week's big
win.� Crennel's biggest challenge is
two-fold:� slow down the Stiller ground
game with quickness and blitzing; and confuse the Stiller passing offense with
a host of zone coverages.�� If he can do
both of these with some effectiveness, the Pats have a chance to compete.�� Crennel's personnel quandary will revolve
around the use of leading tackler Lawyer Malloy.� Should Malloy play near the LOS as an extra LB to bottle up the
run, or will that open up too much space for Plex and Ward?�� Mike Mularkey has had a very good season in
his first year as OC. He took the shackles from Stewart�s legs and allowed him
to do what he does best. He�s also gotten the ball downfield to Burress, and
has mixed in Shaw and Edwards nicely in the 4-WR sets.� Mularkey's sequence of plays on the first
series last week on a 1st & goal from the 6, in which he called 3
consecutive plunges, was outrageously Neanderthal and overly imbecilic, but
Muarleky snapped out of his funk thereafter with some solid playcalling.�� Mularkey needs to keep Kordell on the move,
and unlike last week� more than one
rollout should be called.� Mularkey also
needs to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers -- Ward, AZ, Plex,
Edwards, and Shaw.�� The Pats defense is
the classic rubber-band defense -- bend but don't break -- but Mularkey can't
be content and be lulled into only getting a few first downs and punting with
regularity.�� Advantage:
Stillers, by a slim margin.
Head Coach:� Without question, the NFL
coach of the year was none other than Bill Belichick, who took a moribund,
rag-tag 5-11 team and led it to a 11-5 season.�� And Belichick did this amidst the storm of losing his top QB to
injury; having to ultimately boot off his top WR from the squad; and surviving
a rash of injuries that make the Pats training room look like a MASH unit.�� What makes Belichick click is -- like Bill
Parcells -- the unusually large number of guys who've gone to battle with him
before.�� 16 Patriots have been with
Belichick before, along with 5 assistants.��
Belichick's forte is defense, and if there's anyone out there who can
slow down this Stillers offense, its Bill Belichick.�� This is the 4th time Cowher has hosted an AFC Championship game,
and all 3 previous ones were unmitigated disasters.�� Even the one AFC title game that he won -- over Indy in Jan. '96
-- was an entirely sloppy effort against one of the truly weakest teams to ever
advance to a conference title game.��
Cowher's overt imbecility late in the first half last week -- in which
he squandered field position on his 41-yard line with 44 seconds remaining
without even trying to move into nearby FG position -- is precisely the kind of
timid, "lets keep it close" mentality that led to all previous three
slop fests in the conference championship.�
Advantage:� Pats, by a
slim margin.
Strength of Schedule:� The
Pats played 6 games against eventual playoff opponents, while the Stillers
played just 4.�� The Stillers won 3 of
4, losing once to the Ravens.� The Pats
were 3-3, but that stat is a bit misleading, as two of those losses were early
in the season, in weeks 2 & 4, when the Pats were still trying to gel.�� The other loss was against the Rams, whom
the Pats played tough before succumbing 24-17.�� The best team the Stillers played all year was the mighty
Ravens, who turned out to be more chump than champ.�� Clearly, the Pats have played a more rigorous slate than the
Stillers.�� Advantage:� Pats, by a medium margin.�
*
Synopsis: This has all the markings of another whipping by the
Stillers.� The only matchup the Pats
have an advantage is on spec teams.���
Otherwise, the Stillers personnel have either a decent advantage, or in
some cases, a dominant advantage, over the Patsies.�� On paper, this has the look and feel of a thorough 30-10
thrashing by the home-field Stillers.��
Problem is, the game isn't played on paper.�� On paper, the home-field Stillers had enormous advantages
in virtually every position over both the Chargers in '95 and Colts in
'96, yet lost one game and barely won the other.�� Cowher has always been good at whipping his team into an angry
frenzy against hated division rivals, but against teams that don't bring that
familiarity and hatred, the frenzy is often minimal.� After some struggle and fight from the Pats early on, the
Stillers should handily win this game.�
But I cannot, in good conscience as a sports writer, ignore the
time-honored preparation, leadership, and in-game decision-making deficiencies
of a Bill Cowher coached playoff team.��
The Pats will keep this game close enough to remain in striking
distance, and pull out a heroic 4th quarter comeback to advance to the Super
Bowl with a win over the Stillers, 23-19.��