2006 Draft Wrap

2006 Draft Wrap

For NFL fans, draft weekend is the best thing going, this side of the playoffs. Part of the fun is in seeing what prospects the Steelers haul in.  Part of the fun, for me anyway, is seeing which team (if any) has a board resembling the SBBV.  Last year, it was San Diego, early: the Bolts got Shawn Merriman (top OLB on my board), Luis Castillo (top D-lineman) and Vincent Jackson (top receiving hope for 2.62, snatched at 2.61).  Dallas took the mid-rounds with: high KEI RB Marion Barber (early R4), high KEI DE Chris Canty (deep R4) and, later, a big frame safety with freakish COD, Justin Beriault, (best bet deep R6, once the OT ran out).  

Too soon to say this time, but one thing for sure: the New York Giants certainly had the mid-portion.  With the R3 pick they got in the Santonio Holmes deal, the Giants selected Gerris Wilkinson, a decent I/OLB prospect, considered the top edge of a deep R3 LB cluster.  With the R4 pick they got in the Santonio Holmes deal, the Giants selected developmental OT Guy Whimper, considered the top edge of a R4 OT cluster.  That OT set did emerge in general, but not in the specifics; Ryan Cook was taken R2 and Paul McQuistan R3 while both Jon Scott and Ryan O�Callaghan languished.  As we�ll see, the same kind of thing happened to that (predicted) R3 safety cluster.   

Between those picks plucked from the PS, the Giants took DT Barry Cofield, the #2 3-4 DE prospect in this class (IMO of course, and far behind Mario Williams).  Evidently, Dallas felt otherwise, instead snatching Jason Hatcher at 3.92.  Still, it is worth noting that Hatcher, Ray Edwards, Cofield and even Julian Jenkins did precede Rodrique Wright, though many, including x-FO man and media maven Pat Kirwan, felt Wright was a R1/2 value. 

We�ll see. They�ve all yet to play. 

Locally, things went to form, pretty much.  As always, the PS FO, Colbert & Co., drafted for immediate impact.  Many teams do of course, but you�ve got to wonder why.  It�s well known that the development curve for most players is steepest early on.  Consequently, we see the fruit of most drafts Year 2 or 3, not Year 1.  Here, that�s been described as a �two-year need horizon�, first noted circa 2003, after the Philadelphia Eagles selected 3 DB (Sheppard, Lewis and Brown) R1/2 2002, even though they then had the top secondary in football.  Not for long: two years on, only Brian Dawkins remained in Eagle Green (starting alongside that 2002 rook-trio).  Now, Troy Vincent is playing it out in Buffalo, while Bobby Taylor is seeking his life�s work.     

That�s old news, as is this gleaned from that Roster Survey which opened our 2006 draft eval: 

• The PS Front 7 is not young.  The contracts for many players, now mainstays, are set to expire following the 2007 season.  Those next would be C$3 deals, which are, generally, cap killers.

• The vet backups on the PS O-line are not good.  Like much of the D-front 7, Faneca's deal is done following the aught-7 show too. 

• The PS entered draft weekend with just (9) DB under contract, including local favorite Mike Logan, now rehabbing once more. Polamalu�s second deal figures in the same term as those thirds for Faneca and the F7 vets.  Ike Taylor has yet to be extended.   

All indications are that, for the PS, a hard rain is gonna fall, circa 2007.  Maybe that�s why Colbert & Co. brought �em in 2 x 2, just like Noah.  See: 

• Both Santonio Holmes and Willie Reid are quality prospects; both were reasonable value where selected.  It should be noted that durability issues attach to Reid but (setting that aside) here�s the thing: Holmes and Reid are exactly the same kind of prospect.  With Holmes in the fold, Reid became redundant but, you know: two by two.    

• Anthony Smith does many things well: he was a turnover maker at Syracuse (INT, FF, FR and blocked kicks); he can cover slot receivers; he will hit; he does figure as a fine ST player.  It may be worth noting tests confirm many of those facets (KEI 69.41 including 41� VJ, and also exceptional agilities).  However, Smith is slow; Indy 4.71 aside, his Pro Day converts to ~ 4.64.  That fact all but eliminates single high, and Cover 2 is no sure thing.  A tough guy and a good player, but small and slow; in all regards, Anthony Smith is Ryan Clark.   

• Willie Colon is 6023, 320#; by the numbers, he is Kendrell Simmons.  The difference is: Simmons played LT, Div-1; Colon played RT, Div-2. Colon is powerful and is said to have the feet to pull and trap; however, it�s a long way from Hofstra to the show.  Colon is an OG only, as is Chris Kemoeatu. 

• Marvin Phillips is Chukky Okobi.

• Rumor had it, per the radio locs here, that the Falcons were willing to give TJ Duckett for the PS R7 pick; this reduced from a R5, earlier rumored.  Cedric Humes is slower and smaller than Duckett but exactly as fragile.       

Otherwise:

• The same want-to/inconsistency issues attached to Rodrique Wright also attached to Orien Harris.  The difference is: Wright has R1 ability but Harris does not.

• Per PFW, this old saw attaches to Charles Davis:  �looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.� 

• Omar Jacobs is a big frame QB who does take care of the ball.  That�s good; however, he requires a full makeover and, reportedly, there are questions as to whether he has the acuity to accomplish that. 

We�ll see. They�ve all yet to play.

Putting together the SBBV, this class profiled with: quality speed early, quality bigs in the mid-frames (DE, OLB and OT developmental types) with ST smalls late.  As always, IOL figured from R4 on as was so, this year, for possession WR but not TE.  Since the prime directive R1 was: �harvest the fall,� I would not have made the Holmes deal.  Then, applying that SBBV to this class, per those needs extracted from that Roster Survey:       

Table 1, 2006 Draft, PS alternative haul:

Notes:

As always, this projection follows those value clusters predicted previously, except as falls present (ala R2 OT).  As always, selections are premised on a 2-year need horizon.

• As always, player name represents high KEI guys. 

• Added 3 May: following the action draft weekend, Len Pasquarelli reported that Rodrique Wright's skid got greased from medical results suggesting he had a rotator cuff tear (confirming MRI to follow).  It is not certain when this injury occurred, although the record shows Wright had continuous shoulder woes from the midpoint of his junior campaign.  Wright played best in his soph season, with Marcus Tubbs sideboard; his decline thereafter suggested, maybe, Tubbs had made it all happen.  However, if this prospect played injured, (not hurt but injured and there is a difference) for a season plus, then it must be said Wright has all the right stuff.  Therefore, on a two-year horizon, Rodrique Wright, Day 2, certainly figures as the best Fr7 value in this 2006 class.  Kudos to Coach Saban and the South Beach Fins, not so much for the PS FO.   

Priority UDFA:

• QB:  Paul Pinegar. 
• RB: Andre Hall and Ahmad Hall.
• OT: Mark LeVoir and David Penn.
• IOL: Chip Myrick
• WR: Hank Baskett
• TE: Darcy Johnson
• ILB: Mike Kudla, Kai Parham and David Dixon.
• OLB: John Chick
• DE: Scott Paxson.

Note to readers

Five years ago, plus, Mill invited me to write for this site.  Since then, I�ve done my best to reward that confidence.  I can�t say that I�ve succeeded; that�s for others.  I can say, in trying to do so, my MO has been simple.  That is, as always: I�ve tried to write the article I wanted to read.  What else?  It�s not like I was getting paid, or should have been. 

Generally, this phantom opus can be divided in two: draft items and in-season game analysis.  The draft portion (value clusters, KEI, all that) is summarized above.  That�s the best I�ve got based on the information I�ve got.  I�m not willing to develop better inside type sources.  Doing so would require a career change, which is a non-starter.  I like what I (really) do. 

As for game analysis, well, that stat rap sprang, mainly, from the old Week in Review series, circa 2001-03.  Certainly there were low points along the way but, for me anyway, the last set of playoff pre-games posted were about as good as I expect to do.  So that�s it.  I see no reason to till the same ground, again and again.  I do have other things to accomplish.    

So, I�m done here.  My thanks to Mill for his encouragement, to Trivia and Trenches for their work in maintaining this venue.  Thanks to any readers; to all, all the best.  In appreciation, this parting gift (or so I hope it to be): article #2, which, in the bad old days of FTP, never reached the site.      

Mechanical Fruit; Swine seek their slop.

That which has oozed from Stiller HQ since the debacle in Jersey puts me in mind of Stanley Kubrick�s old film, A Clockwork Orange.  If you�ve seen it, you�ll know what I mean.  If not, well, let�s just say that the third quarter depicts a highly successful piece of human re-engineering.

The essence of the technique plied there is to provide some subject with conflicting experience.  Offer, simultaneously, two realities that are mutually exclusive, while insisting those be reconciled.  Understanding that resolution to be impossible, the subject will, sooner or later, collapse into victimhood, which, here, may be understood as a state trending towards catatonia.

Closer to home, consider one utterance attributed to Coach Cowher in today�s TR:  � I thought protection-wise we did a pretty good job.  Kordell had a lot of time to throw.�  Well, a lot in the 4^th quarter when the Giants led 27-3, or 30-3.  Not so much earlier.

Monday, in the PG, Hines Ward had this to say: � They blitzed the crap out of us.�  Evidently not, though Hines elaborated on the point, as did Kordell Stewart and Bobby Shaw, all, seemingly, excluding Coach Cowher�s expression.  There you have Kubrick flipped: two irreconcilable views of one action.

All I know is what I see on TV.  That was:

1. The Giants showed blitz more often than they brought it.  When they brought it, often they hadn�t shown it.

2. The Giants� 4-man rush was highly effective when, early on, Keith Hamilton lined up as a NT over Duffy with Peters, or Corn Griffin, splitting Stai and Smith, leaving Faneca uncovered.  That�s a great scheme; Faneca has the ability to match any of the Giants� DT trio but both Duffy and Tylski were routinely tooled. Naturally then, both Hamilton and Peters got some powerful hits on Stew.  Later, with Mark Breuner forced to help Marvel deal with Strahan, the Steelers had no threat in those zones vacated when the Giants commenced sending their LB. 

3. Cedric Jones laid it on Kordell once.  Late in the game, Jones took a wide split and Gandy had really no chance to get out on the smaller, quicker man.  Contrast that with Jax 2 when Porter faced up opposite Boselli, over and over again.

Turning to the upcoming Skins game, CNNSI is reporting that Dan Snyder has asked the League to release him from a prior commitment to pay 50M towards his team�s debt.  That is just about perfect. 

In July 99, Snyder bought the team for 800M, borrowing about a half Bill to accomplish this.  That 500K debt is a figure exceeding the current full value of many franchises.  Then too, it is a nice nip out of the nation�s capital pool: money that, maybe, could have been put to better use.  Anyway, having secured ownership, Snyder and one minority partner bought out a second minority interest.  This required they re-structure their debt, that now driving Ms. Danny to weasel.

Mr. Snyder will lead a 7-7 team into the �Burgh, a team with salary and bonuses approaching 100M.  Not a great return on that investment, which someday surely will split the League between haves and have-nots.  In that aspect, Mr. Snyder may be considered a disease vector, except  that doesn�t really get at it.  He�s merely a portion of a swarm: SUV-driving, latte-lapping, consumer-castle- building spawn, one from a generation of swine through whose droppings we recently did sort in selecting the next President of this Republic.

I�ve got a heart full of hate in this holiday season.  Here is my first act of contrition.  I wish for Mr. Snyder a long life in good health.  I wish that he keeps all his money, and makes plenty more.  I wish that his Skins grip their next crown at the exact moment that new money grows old.

                                                                                                                                                                        12 December 2000