Week 15 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	133-57-4	10-4-1	143-61-5	Jets Texans Lions Cards
TOP	138-55-1	12-3	150-38-1	Falcons Browns Chargers
100 yard rushers	72-29	4-4	76-33	Jets Falcons Chargers Chiefs
>/= +2 Takeaways	92-8	5-2	97-10	Browns Chiefs
YPA	147-41-6	12-3	159-44-6	Chargers Jets Cards

 

Futility Index:

 

• Of (4) teams with that lost despite having a RB go for +100, (3) allowed an opposing RB to get +100 too.

 

• Sometimes you eat the bear; sometimes the bear eats you.� Sometimes, you eat the bear but then die from some intestinal parasite.� Just so, the Jets, Chargers and Chiefs won most critical phases but still lost.� The Chargers must have been especially chapped; they held Bledsoe to 107 yards gross (101 net), won Top and got LT rolling but still lost.� Travis Henry was the difference�

 

Not so futile but�

 

• Dallas got back in the Kordell Stakes, throwing for a puny 3.2 net YPA while getting blown out by the NYG.

 

• Miami showed how to beat the Raiders, possess the ball and sack the QB.� Gannon had a respectable 204 through the air but (5) sacks for 41 reduced the Raider�s net YPA to about 4.5.

 

Steelers Index:

 

1. The Steeler defense, after holding Houston and Carolina to a combined (178) yards, has risen to # 3 in the League�s YPG list.� While it is true that those teams are (now) 32^nd and 31^st in offense, 178 is far below either squad�s season average; Houston is at about 225 and Carolina just under 270.� The real question remains; is it possible for the B&G to hold, say, Oakland to <50% of their season average, which, after the Fins game, fell below 400 to 397.2?

 

2. Add in the Jacksonville game and the Steeler defense has held their past (3) opponents to 405 yards total offense.� You may remember that, in Game 2, Rich Gannon threw for 403.

 

3. Tampa Bay is the big dog on the D-side; the Bucs are #1 at 249.9 yards allowed.� The Steelers� figure, #3 @ 295.4, is 45.5 YPG back.� By way of reference, Jacksonville�s defense, #22 overall @ about 340, is roughly the same distance back of the B&G.� Just now, the Steeler defense is exactly as close to #22 as #1; that seems about right.

 

4. Although Carolina�s D-line is more highly regarded, the Steelers� unit had the better day.� Pittsburgh�s D-line accounted for (3) TFL including (2) sacks (Hampton and Bailey) and also had a FR (KVO).� Aaron Smith led the way with (7) solos including a very heads-up TFL on a screen pass.� Well done; damn well done.

 

5. With all Pro Bowl ballots cast, Jason Gildon had his finest day of the season.� The much-maligned Dong had 2.5 sacks to include both a strip and a hit that put Rodney Peete out for a time.� Again, well done.

 

6. Brent Alexander, showing athleticism that had been well concealed previously, went up and made a Ward-esque reception of an errant Weinke toss.� This was the Steelers� first pick since Game 8.� In the same period, Steeler QB had thrown (8) INT.� That�s not good, 1.25 per game is a bit high.� It is worth noting though that, in the first (8) games, Steeler QB had thrown (12) picks; that 1.5 per game figure was offset by (15) INT on the D-side, nearly 2.0 per game.�

 

7. The Steelers� had (4) takeaways; well really (2), with Carolina generously contributing a couple of unforced fumbles.� Regardless, the offense converted for (17) points.� Two 2^nd half TD drives covered a total of (33) yards, all by Bettis on (6) carries.��� Quite obviously, these scores were the margin of victory; as usual, the team that was (+2) in the takeaway department won out.�

 

8. Lucky 13:� Josh Reed converted his 13^th FG of the season when his 2^nd of the game banked through off the right upright.� That kick moved him ahead of Todd Petersen who in 10 games was 12/21.� Reed made a 3^rd later and now, through 4 games is 14/16.� Surely, his (6) FG were the difference in the 2-point win at Jax; conceivably, his (3) were the difference in the Bengal game too.�� To Steeler fans, Pete�s injury in the Music City has to be the most significant rib displacement to occur since Adam gave one up to acquire Eve.

 

9. Spike redeemed his poor showing against Houston with (6) catches for 120 yards.� Of those, (3) occurred on the Steelers� opening drive.� While his slip and fall in possession 2 caused Maddox�s only INT, neither Burress nor T-Max can be blamed; surely, the Heinz agronomist is at fault there.� As effective as he was catching the ball, Spike�s biggest play came when he ran Minter down at the P-5.� �That showed heart and there has been question about that portion of the man�s anatomy.� It is worth noting that Burress made the big play on the Steelers� next possession where they drove (56) yards (including his 31-yard hook-up) for a FG.� That closed out the 1^st quarter; afterwards, Spike fell out of the game plan until his final big play, a 47-yard grab, led to the Steelers� 3^rd FG.� If I had a HH vote, Plaxico Burress would be my guy.

 

10. Steeler WR had just (10) catches on the day.� (5) came in the opening possession, just (3) in the 2^nd half.� It is not clear whether Carolina adapted their Cover 2 or the Steelers simply turtled up early.� It is clear that the B&G are headed towards Cover 2 Mecca next week.� If the WR were taken out by some Panther adjustment, the Steeler brain trust had better get a fix; in contrast, if the Steelers spiked their own big guns (so to speak), they�d best not presume that�ll work next week too.� I�m all for establishing a run game but I�m not in favor of an even distribution of receptions between the WR and RB here.��

 

11. �Hines Ward went over the century mark in receptions for the season.� That�s great, though the fact that he had just (3) yesterday is not.� Ward�s hamstring injury is troubling as, next week, the Steelers will need (2) quality WR to counter the Buc C2.� Lee Mays showed no sign that he can help.� Several times Sunday, Mays replaced Ward in the 4-wide; unfortunately, he responded by gatoring (1) and juggling a 2^nd.� Not good.

 

Next Opponent:

 

Here is the stat line for a couple of Pro Bowl LB:

 

Player	Tackles	Solo	Sacks	Stuffs	FF	INT	PD	TD
Derrick Brooks	99	78	1.0	3.5	None	4	9	3
Joey Porter	79	64	8.0	1.5	2.0	4	9	0

 

Brooks had the edge in tackles and TD, Porter in TFL and FF.� These men are exactly even playing the ball in the air; it is worth noting that both had fast starts statistically but have added little to those totals in the season�s 2^nd half.�

 

Here is a CB comparison:

 

Player	Tackles	Solo	FF	INT	PD
Ronde Barber	63	56	None	4	20
Brian Kelly	59	54	1.0	6	19
Chad Scott	78	64	None	1	15
Dwayne Washington	45	39	None	2	13

 

Scott leads in tackles but maybe that�s not a good thing.� Combined, Barber and Kelly have had hands on an opponents pass (49) times, Scott and Washington, (31).

 

4-3 teams usually have a rush DE; in the 3-4 that job falls to an OLB.� Here is a comparison between (2) players with Pro Bowl credentials.

 

Player	Tackles	Solo	Sacks	Stuffs	FF	INT	PD	TD
Simone Rice	44	38	14.5	2.5	6	1	10	None
Jason Gildon	59	39	7.5	0.5	2	0	4	None

 

Rice�s edge in FF, INT and PD combined is astonishing.� Add those to the TFL stats and we see Rice has made 34 impact plays.� Gildon has made14.� In fairness, it must be acknowledged that Porter�s 24.5 are dwarfed by Rice�s output as are Brook�s 20.5.�

 

Most seasons, Tampa Bay has been poor on offense.� That is a large part of the reason that Gruden is their HC now.� The Bucs adapted slowly to the mode imported from Oakland but, since Brad Johnson returned to the line up, they are coming on.� Having wallowed for much of the year in the deep 20�s in YPG, they are up to T-21 now.� That improvement is commendable but it is worth noting that they�re right with the Browns, at 318 per game. That�s not too frightening.

 

The Bucs can�t run; Michael Pittman is averaging an Eddie George like 3.4 YPC.� Mike Alstott, their 4^th quarter battering ram, is at 3.7.

 

However, the Bucs do have a varied stable of receivers.� They have (6) players with (30) or more catches.� While the Steeler top (3) WR have the edge with (214) catches combined to the Bucs trio�s (149), the Buc check-down guys (Pittman, Dilger and Alstott) have combined for (119) grabs.� After ARE, the next (3) Steeler receivers have (72).�� That�s no criticism of the Steelers� O-mode but is intended to demonstrate that, more than likely, the Steeler D-side will be dealing with multi-receiver sets to include (3) WR with some combination of (1) TE, slotted RB (empty set) or single back.� The Bucs don�t have mush speed but they do have some options.

 

Fun Facts?

 

The Steelers� have employed (6) TE at various times this year; those men have combined for (16) receptions.� FB Dan Kreider has (14), add (3) by Haynes and the FB have a slight edge.� The Steelers may be the only team this side of Buffalo where that is true.

 

Tampa Bay fields (3) former 1^st round picks on their (4) man D-line.� The Steelers field (4) former #1 picks on their (5) man O-line.� There�s your game.

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