11
Questions:
As if the woman of your dreams reps meds for genital herpes, Coach Cowher�s recent extension has dampened enthusiasm for season 2004.� Still, as camp opens, these questions do present.� Starting at the top:
Is the new Art just like the old Art?� Well maybe; after all, the Original once brought in Johnny �Blood� McNally as a player coach just because, as was then rumored, he featured Blood as a drinking buddy.� Those were bad teams in the 30�s; the WWII Steagles worse but you know, 40 years past Blood and the Steelers did rule the Disco Era.�
Evidently similarly addled, Art II presented this as the prime reason for keeping Cowher on:
- � We have a lot of young players on the roster and we feel that Coach Cowher will do a great job in developing those young players into a championship caliber football team.�
Well, except for the draft picks, of whom few are expected to play much this season, the young players on the roster now were on it last season too.� The Steelers were effectively out of it early but still the young players sat as those withered vets Gildon, Alexander, Bettis and Washington limped home.� If Coach Bill didn�t see fit to play the youngsters then, with nothing but their long-term development riding, well, what�s changed?��
There is no basis to believe that Coach Cowher can effectively develop young players, or, considering the preponderance of 29 to30 year old FA brought in this off-season (Staley, Kirschke and Logan), that he�s got any interest in doing so.� If President Rooney couldn�t come up with a creditable reason for this extension, perhaps one doesn�t exist.� So, question 2:
How long, tell me how long, will William Laird Cowher coach the PS?� Strictly, R2 suggested a presidential duration when, asked if Cowher was a championship level HC, he said:
- � We certainly feel that Bill can do that and with the cast of players that we are developing here we feel that we have a chance to do that hopefully in the course of the next 4 years we have him under contract.�
4 years goes out to 2007, which coincidentally is the term for which Faneca, Porter and Aaron Smith are signed.� However, given ownership�s propensity for the early extension, well, after the 2005 season, they�ll, again, be faced with same stability, lame duck type issues that precipitated this move.� At that point, Roethlisberger will have started (1) season or, maybe not even that, though he�ll likely be the anointed starter for 2006.�� Then, we�ll hear how it would be unfair to judge Coach by the results, what with an inexperienced player at football�s all-important position and, again, round and round we�ll go.� So, the answer is: just as long as he likes.� Meet William Laird Cowher, Generalissimo.
Over the years, Coach Cowher has gone through ACs like fat boys chomp chips.� Generally, the direction has been downward: from Erhardt and Gailey to Sherman and Gilbride (though Mularkey was an uptick).� On the other side, similar: Capers and LeBeau to Haslett and Lewis.� While most have gone on to better things, oddly, Coach Dick has returned to the nest, so:
Can Coach LeBeau resurrect Blitzburgh, or even make the PS defense worth watching: �It�ll be interesting to see whether he can answer Charlie Weis� 2-year old question:
- How you gonna rush the passer if your best rushers are in coverage?
�within the parameters of the Steelers OKIE personnel.� Still, Coach LeBeau�s track record does not suggest that he�s any miracle worker. The following tables demonstrate his defenses� effectiveness against those preceding, and just past, his prior terms as DC, both here and in Bungal-land.�
LeBeau�s marks in Pittsburgh, boldface, and two years either side:
|
Year |
Ranking, Points per game |
Ranking, Yards per game |
Remarks |
|
1993 |
8th |
3rd |
|
|
1994 |
2nd |
3rd |
|
|
1995 |
9th |
2nd |
Figures shot pre-season, Woodson blew knee in opener.� Steelers began with Alvoid Mays and Willie Williams at CB, ended with Williams and Lake. |
|
1996 |
4th |
3rd |
Lloyd blew knee in opener; Seals sat out the season; Gildon was to replace for Kevin Green but he got nicked and, for a time,� the PS had the tandem of Ravotti and Emmons at LOLB. |
|
1997 |
11th |
5th |
|
|
1998 |
7th |
10th |
|
Coach Dick couldn�t catch a break last time; it is a credit to him that he kept his units, wracked by injury to key players, roughly on par with those preceding.� It�s worth noting that the PS defense did begin to slide after he left.�� However, his tenure in Cincinnati isn�t so encouraging:
LeBeau�s marks in Cincinnati, boldface, and two years either side:
|
Year |
Ranking, Points per game |
Ranking, Yards per game |
Remarks |
|
1995 |
22nd |
17th |
|
|
1996 |
24th |
30th |
|
|
1997 |
27th |
28th |
|
|
1998 |
30th |
27th |
|
|
1999 |
31st |
24th |
|
|
2000 |
21st |
22nd |
|
|
2001 |
14th |
11th |
|
The Bengal defense never got it going while LeBeau was their DC.� In fact, the trend was downward though, in fairness, it should be acknowledged that ticked back up while he was HC, in �00 and �01 (though not �02).� Still, it�s apparent that players make plays; Coach Dick had �em in Pittsburgh, last time.� In the Queen City?� Not so much.� So, back to the Weis thing and:
Under Coach LeBeau, how
will the PS rush the passer if their best rushers are in coverage?� Really,
that�s a two-part question since the PS figure to be in some package set about
half the time but either way you�ve got to believe that zone blitz schema will
be instrumental.� Consider that the PS
has just one proven edge rusher, Joey Porter; they have no DE at all; their
D-linemen are selected to be run stuffers, not pass rushers.� Handicapped from a personnel point of view,
these PS will have to rely on trickeration and, best guess, Coach LeBeau has
developed any number of schemes interchanging Kendrell Bell and his twin SS,
Polamalu and Hope.� A few years ago,
Carnell Lake led the Steelers in sacks; it wouldn�t be much of a stretch to
guess that either safety could do so this season.�
Coach LeBeau can send the
safeties if the CB can hold up in single coverage.� Alternatively, he can give the CB some help if the Front 7 can
pressure.� The PS re-built their safety
tandem with Chris Hope (class of �01) and Troy Polamalu (class of �02) but
others in those classes could make a real difference.� So this: of the D-side classes of �01 and �02 (Hope,
Keisel, Polamalu, Zo and Ike), how many players will make a real contribution
this season?� For the Steelers to be playoff contenders the minimum is 3; presumably,
that�s all the DB.� If either Zo or
Keisel contribute as package rushers, so much the better.�
Will the Steelers� remain injury-free on the D-line?� Casey
Hampton has made 48/48 games in his 3-year career.� Aaron Smith has started all 64 regular season games over the past
4; KVO has answered the bell 63/64 times.��
Combined, that�s (1) absence in (11) player-years, or 175 of 176
possible appearances.� So, no: it�s far
more likely that one of the big three will miss some time.� Past Kirschke, the PS has nothing in the
pantry.� The whiff of dual injuries
within this unit has the wrack of ruin.
On the other side of the
ball:
Russ Grimm, Boss Hog or just a guy?� Back in 2001, Coach Grimm got
a lot of credit for transforming a Steeler line from south of mediocre, a
charitable estimate of their performance from �98-�00, to a full-on
juggernaut.� Afterwards, well, that set
regressed to just-above-average in �02 before plunging into the abyss of
2003.� In 2001, Grimm was graced with
several young prospects (Nkwenti, Okobi and Vincent) but of those Nkwenti spent
3 seasons in solitary here and about 20 minutes on the NYG roster, Okobi got an
extension last winter but no starts in �03 and, for whatever reason, Vincent
hasn�t moved ahead of the sickly Kendall Simmons.� Now, Coach Russ has 3 more youngsters to develop: Starks, Lacy
and Caylor; considering the Steelers� quality of depth here, especially at OT,
it is Grimm�s ability to develop those prospects, far more than Cowher�s, which
will calibrate the Steelers� championship aspirations.���
Can the PS cobble up a franchise level performance out of
the Staley/Bettis combo?� Well, here are some 2003 results:�
|
Player |
# touches |
Total yards |
Remarks |
|
Tomlinson |
413 |
2370 |
Includes 100 receptions |
|
J. Lewis |
413 |
2271 |
Lewis did it the hard
way with 387 carries |
|
Priest Holmes |
394 |
2110 |
74 receptions but all
27 TD came on the ground |
|
Fred Taylor |
393 |
1942 |
Among this set, had the
2nd most carries, 345 |
|
Clinton Portis |
328 |
1905 |
Fewest touches, fewest
carries, best YPT (yards per touch) |
Figure 403 touches, about the average of the top 4; the average total yard mark is 2130.� Calibrating Staley�s likely contribution, based on his top two seasons to date:
|
|
# touches |
Total yards |
Remarks |
|
Staley, 1999 |
365 |
1567 |
Includes 41 receptions |
|
Staley, 2002 |
320 |
1570 |
Includes 51 receptions |
Well, if Staley gets, say, 340 touches and 1570 yards, that leaves 63 touches for Bettis.� To get the combo to 2130 yards, Bettis would have to average around 9 YPC, which isn�t going to happen.� More likely, Staley gets 250 touches, including say 50 receptions leaving Bettis 150 carries or so.� Presuming the Bus rumbles for 3.5 YPC (525 yards), then Staley would have to average 1605/253 or 6.34 YPT.�� Clinton Portis, tops in that category last year, averaged 5.80; in his best season (2002), Staley averaged 4.90.� (4.9 x 253) is 1240 yards so, even if Bettis gets to his career 4.0 YPC, the top end for this tandem seems to be about 1, 840.� The over/under?� 1240 for Staley; (150 x 3.3 = 495) 495 for Bettis, or 1735 in all.�
The rest are easy:
Do the Steelers possess a TE that can move the safety?� In the box or in Cover 2, for years opposing safeties have dampened the PS attack.� Reimersma was brought in to provide a seam threat at TE but last year, no go.� Reimersma is on the wrong side of 30 and spent much of last season in the tub; chances are, he�s not the guy.� Downstream, either Kranchick or Blizzard may be the answer, but don�t count on it.��
Do the Steelers possess a legitimate prospect behind Ward and Spike, at either the X or Y WR positions?� Considering Freddie Milons and Zamir Cobbs slot-only, the candidates are: Lee Mays, Brian Robinson and Huey Whitaker.� IMO, the best bet is Whitaker but the odds are long.����
Tommy Maddox is one of three PS QB with a positive TD/INT ratio.� For his career here, Maddox is +5.� Will Maddox double that in 2004?� That�s not too tough IMO, say, 20/15 or, matching his career (too high) low in INT, 22/17.����
Extra points:
- How many of Ben Roethlisberger�s (future) top 3 receivers are on the current roster?
- Of four primary indicators for punters (gross average, net average, inside 20 and touchbacks), in how many, will Chris Gardocki exceed Josh Miller�s 2004 numbers?� 2003?�� The over/under is 1, both years.�
- The over/under on the Steelers� first movie break?� Day 12.�