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Breaking down the Stillers: how they can be beaten

January 14, 2002 by Still Mill

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Breaking down the Stillers�.How they can be beaten

(Note: my Stiller-Raven pre-game outlook will be published here later this week, probably on Thursday.) In this upcoming next week, you�ll be inundated with hype and hoopla all over the media about how great the Stillers are, how invincible they are, and how unbeatable they are with the 13-3 record and home field advantage. No doubt, this Stillers team is good, and perfectly capable of reaching the Big Show down in N�Orleans.

However, let there also be no doubt, this team is eminently beatable. From the enemy�s perspective, here�s how:

1. Use a host of passing formations, even to run the ball. Here�s why: similar to his over-infatuation with using Charles Johnson as a blocking wingback late in the �97 season, Cowher and his staff have now become infatuated with using Mike Jones in the nickel/dime defense, while removing Kendrell Bell. The CJ infatuation led to the Stillers demise when Mike Shanahan not only put his best cover-corner (Crockett) on Thigpen, but also shaded coverage toward Thiggy. The result was plays like the 2nd quarter INT on a pass to Thigpen, which, had it been run to CJ, most likely would have never been INT�d and may have resulted in a TD. The infatuation with Mike Jones has caused this defense to sit its best pound-for-pound, sideline-to-sideline tackler. Yes, Mike Jones is a fine pass defender for a LB. However, to insert Jones and sit Bell puts the team�s best all around speed-tackler on the bench. The Stillers could insert Jones, and keep KenBell in the game. Why should a pudgy NT remain in the game on 3rd and 9? Why should a vet like Kimo, who takes a pounding at DE, remain in the game with Bell on the pine? Given the way Bell has showed incredible speed, quickness, tackling, and hitting, why would you ever want to sit him down, other than perhaps 1 play per half just to catch his breath? Besides Joey Porter, Bell is the best blitzing LB on this team. And with Bell on the bench, an opponent has a better chance of running the ball out of a "passing formation". Simply put, an opponent that wants to take advantage should attempt to line up in passing formations most of the game and get the Stillers best all around defender off the field.

2. Take advantage of special teams. Bill Cowher, despite being a former special teams player and coach, has rarely ever had good, sound special teams. All too often, they�ve been the kind to give up two punt returns for TDs to Eric Metcalf in one game, or botch a game-winning FG snap in J-ville, or allow the blocked punt in the �93 playoff game, or blast one punt after another through the end zone, such as the �95 playoff loss to SD. The Stillers spec teams this year have been downright horrendous. The kickoffs have been shallow and short; the kickoff coverage has been spotty and soft; the punt coverage has been spotty, the return game, with some rare exception from Edwards, have done nothing; and the FG kicking has been the worst in the NFL. On top of all this, the blocking has allowed multiple blocked punts, as well as one blocked FG and one blocked PAT. Because everything is magnified in the playoffs, special teams really are a full one-third of the game, and a solid opponent will take advantage of the weak Stillers special teams.

3. Take advantage of Cowher�s lack of strategy and tactics. Just as Cowher has shown the acute inability to transition from the preseason to the regular season, so, too, has he shown similar problems going from the regular season to the playoffs. No coach has consistently done less, with more, in the playoffs than Billy Cowher. In the playoffs, underdog teams often throw caution to the wind and take chances that, in the regular season, they might not otherwise take. Meanwhile, Cowher has always been content to "dance with the girl who brung ya", and make no significant adjustments and make no significant preparations for what the opponent might to do upset the favored team. What happens is similar to the short-sighted French overconfidence in their Maginot Line prior to the outset of World War II, which the German blitzkrieg strategy rendered useless with incredible ease. Cowher has always treated the playoffs with the bland mindset of, "Well, if it worked in the regular season, it should work in the playoffs." Problem is, the opponent in the playoffs usually feels like a cornered dog, and consequently changes his tactics during the week of preparation in order to at least go down with all guns blazing. Furthermore, playoff teams often home in on one or two perceived cracks and go out of their way to exploit those cracks. The classic example is the loss to the Chargers in the �95 AFC title game. The TD pass to Papunu -- a no-name TE who hadn�t done squat that season -- was no accident, but rather a well-planned play by Ross that exploited Deon Figures� penchant for biting on playfakes. For those who think Cowher is a capable playoff coach, consider this: Cowher has a long history of playoff failures and struggles, which are contained below at the bottom of this article.

4. In addition to #2 above, take advantage of in-game adjustments. Despite the fables bandied about in the media, Cowher�s staff has perennially -- to include this season -- struggled to counter the in-game adjustments of its opponents. A team does "X", Cowher fails to respond with "Y". Case in point, and take your pick of the 25 times this has happened in the past 6 years: an opponent has a white-hot receiver who is continually getting open, getting the ball thrown to him, and catching everything in sight -- and Cowher will sit ossified on the sideline, and refuse to make any adjustments whatsoever. Or, Cowher�s team will do "X", the opponent will then shut it down with "Y", and Cowher will either fail, or refuse, to counter it with "Z".

5. Exploit the right side of the Stiller offensive line. Starting guard Rich Tylski is, by far, the weakest of the starters -- and that was before his injury and layoff at the end of the season. If Tylski cannot go, then Oliver Ross -- a 4-year veteran tackle that never even started a game until this season -- will get the start. Despite the fawning over Ross� play, the fact of the matter, for those who have studied the game tapes the way I have, is that Ross has struggled immensely at guard. At tackle, Ross has straight-forward pass blocking duties -- turn out toward the DE and ward him away from the QB. On ground plays he either blocks the DE or blocks down on the DT. At guard, Ross has exponentially more duties, most of which require considerable lateral movement, something Ross has shown to be totally inept at. And on pass blocking, the guard doesn�t have the easy single choice of the DE -- oftentimes he�s required to make split-second decisions to pick up a blitzer, or a stunting lineman, and Ross� footwork and lack of mobility kills him. Marvel Smith, while much improved from his woeful play during preseason, still has had problems over at RT. Smith still lunges -- leading with his helmet -- at rushers from time to time, and the result has been miserable whiffs. Opponents would be wise to earn a "draw" on the left side of the Stiller O-line and whip up on the weaker right side, even if it means swapping some defenders from their usual positions to do so.

5. Run blitz inside the tackles. The Pats perfected this in 1997, and the Ravens mimicked it starting in �98. This has given the Stiller offense fits when they�ve relied on the whaleshit running plays that call for Bettis to tiptoe wide with shoulders parallel to the LOS. The insistence on lots of cutesy pulling, instead of straight-ahead drive blocking, will allow opposing blitzers to shoot through the open gaps and engulf Bettis as well as harass Stewart.

6. Assign a spy. The smart playoff opponent will assign either a tough, quick DB, or more likely a quick, savvy LB to "spy" on the offense. The spy gives the Stillers fits, because that one spy stops 3 of the Stillers favorite plays:

- the QB draw
- the SG draw
- the screen pass

Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, the spy keeps an eye on Stewart, both on his designed rollouts, as well as his improvised scrambles.

7. Exploit the two primary weaknesses of the Stiller defense. Yes, the Stillers have the #1 defense, but two glaring weakness exist: the pass coverage of SS Lee Flowers, and the OLB play of Jason Gildon. Flowers, although a good run stuffer and vicious hitter, is the weakest coverage man among the Stillers top 6 DBs (to include Logan and Townsend). He�s been exploited in the passing game numerous times this season, and opponents would be foolish to not exploit him. Gildon has 12 sacks, mostly from coverage sacks, gift sacks, unblocked opportunities, or being left all alone with only a RB. Gildon is by far the weakest of the 4 starting LBs, and is flaccid and meek against the run. Moreover, his pass coverage is, at best, mediocre. Opponents shouldn�t hesitate to run at, and around, Big Jason.

8. Even if down, keep the game within striking distance. Keeping the game within 2 scores allows any playoff opponent the chance to come back against the turtling, conservative Cowher. In fact, Cowher�s playoff history with a lead is rife with his anus-puckering playcalls and schemes that have explicitly allowed a downed opponent to come back and take the lead.

9. Get a lead. How often has a Cowher playoff team come from behind in the 2nd half? Once -- versus the lowly Dolts in the Jan/ �96 AFC title game. Take the lead, and you take a lot of wind from Cowher�s sail.

10. If your defense has some spottiness, play a rubber-band defense. Give Cowher some cushion between the 20�s, and limit any big plays. Then turn up the heat in the red zone, and when Cowher blinks and turtles, you�ve won the battle by only giving up the FG.

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Cowher�s playoff history:

�93 - Despite securing the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, Cowher�s team gets thoroughly whipped and embarrassed by the Bills, 24-3.

�94 - The Stillers visited a very ordinary Chiefs team, and lost a very winnable game because of two chronic problems: dropped passes, including one by Jeff Graham that could have sealed the game, and special teams fiasco caused by a blocked punt. On the game-tying do or die TD by Kansas City, the Stillers played vanilla, rushing just 4 men and allowing Joe Montana 6 seconds to scan the entire field.

�95 - Cowher finally got his first playoff win by beating Cleveland, a team they�d already waltzed through twice during the regular season. Cowher then allowed his players to conduct Super Bowl video practice in the week leading up to the AFC title game in Pittsburgh. As a 10-point favorite, the Stillers lost in one of the most shameful, pitiful playoff losses in franchise history to one of the weakest teams to ever make it to the Super Bowl.

�96 - The Stillers easily disposed of an aging, decrepit Bills team in their first game, 40-21. Then, thanks to a KC loss, the Stillers managed to get another home-field AFC title game, this time against a very weak, ordinary Colts team that was ravaged by injury. Not only was star RB Marshall Faulk out, but backup Zack Crockett was also hobbled from the KC game, meaning the running chores belonged to Lamont Warren. Despite overwhelming talent at virtually every position on the football field, the Stillers were behind late in the game, and had CB Willie Williams not abandoned his assignment and chased down Warren from behind on a late 3rd & 1, the Colts would have salted away nearly all of the scant remaining time. O�Donell then hit Hastings on a huge 4th and 3, and with less than a minute left, Bam crashed in for the winning score. Still, the Colts came back against a softee defense, and had a legit shot at a Hail Mary that was just barely incomplete in the EZ. In a sheer fit of luck and fortune, the Stillers avoided what would have been their most shameful playoff loss, even worse than the previous year. In the Super Bowl, Cowher arrived on gameday to a soggy, sloppy, mucky field in Tempe, and nevertheless insisted on starting & playing scatback Erric Pegram, the same back who struggled mightily in the win on a soggy Cleveland field back in week 12, for the first 20-some minutes. On top of that, the entire Stiller defense came out in a fog, totally befuddled and bewildered by the size and brawn of the Cowboy offensive line. By the time Bam Morris finally entered the game, and by the time the defense adjusted to the Cowboy offense, Dallas had a comfy lead they should have never been given.

�97 - Stillers beat a woeful, injury ravaged Colts team 42-14. The Stillers then faced a ordinary New England team in the fog of Boston, and in a complete fog, got thoroughly whipped and embarrassed, 28-3. The ineptitude of the team�s woeful preparation was never more evident than the Stillers� first play from scrimmage -- a play that is practiced at least 15 times leading up to the game --- which was flagged for having 2 men in motion at the same time.

�98 - At home, the Stillers faced a weak, injury ravaged Patriots team, so beat up that not only was Curtis Martin on the shelf, but his backup was as well, meaning little-used 3rd string RB Derrick Cullors had to start at RB. Despite the home field advantage and superior talent all over the field, the only TD the Stillers could muster all day was a fluke 40-yard scamper by Stewart, made possible only because a NE LB pulled away in fear of a personal foul flag as Stew was tight-roping the sideline. The Stillers eked out a totally uninspiring win, 7-6. They then faced a Denver team that they�d beaten the month prior, but in the rematch Shanahan�s adjustments allowed the Broncs to pull off yet another playoff upset of the Stillers at home. The coaching imbecility of Bill Cowher was never more evident than the key 3rd & 7 play that occurred right after the lengthy 2-minute warning timeout, in which Cowher�s defense rushed only 4 men at Hall of Fame QB John Elway, while covering the most likely pass recipient (Shannon Sharpe) with a LB (Gildon) who, at the time, almost never dropped into coverage.

In all, the Stillers have never beaten a favored team in the playoffs, and have woefully lost -- or won weakly despite playing like manure -- as a favorite several times.

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