Reality Check:
Draft gurus make their bones by accurately predicting where any given prospect gets selected in any given draft.� Hit and it�s �value�, or BPA; miss and it�s a �reach� for which any given teams� FO may then be excoriated.� In contrast, personnel directors are looking for players; that so a �reach� that proves out is of far greater value than some BPA who busts.
Let�s look at the some past prospect lists, focusing on DB since that remains the Steelers� area of greatest need.� The following tables display D-back prospects from the classes of 1998,1999, 2000 and 2003; the rankings shown are overall (regardless of position) as the Huddle Report(s) of those years had it.� Boldface in the �98-�00 columns indicates those players who both would have been available at 1.27 or 2.59 and (subsequently) proved out.
Prospects as ranked:
1998, 16 in top 80. |
1999, 12 in top 100. |
2000, 14 in top 100. |
2002, 17 in top 100. |
||||
Rank |
Player |
Rank |
Player |
Rank |
Player |
Rank |
Player |
3 |
Charles Woodson |
2 |
Champ Bailey |
24 |
Deon Grant |
5 |
Terence Newman |
15 |
Shaun Williams |
11 |
Chris McAlister |
28 |
Ahmad Plummer |
10 |
Marcus Trufant |
21 |
Brian Kelly |
23 |
Antoine Winfield |
30 |
Delthea O�Neal |
18 |
Andre Woolfolk |
22 |
Duane Starks |
31 |
Fernando Bryant |
36 |
Rashad Anderson |
29 |
Mike Doss |
23 |
Corey Chavous |
34 |
Antwan Edwards |
42 |
Ike Charlton |
32 |
Troy Polamalu |
27 |
Terry Fair |
46 |
Dre Bly |
47 |
Barrett Green |
36 |
Dennis Weathersby |
32 |
Tebucky Jones |
53 |
Anthony Poindexter |
51 |
Lewis Sanders |
38 |
Rashean Mathis |
36 |
RW McQuarters |
55 |
Fred Vinson |
55 |
Dwayne Goodrich |
52 |
Sammy Davis |
40 |
Patrick Surtain |
57 |
Charles Fisher |
66 |
Mark Roman |
53 |
Eugene Wilson |
41 |
Donovin Darius |
69 |
Mike McKenzie |
69 |
Ben Kelly |
55 |
Julian Battle |
43 |
Cordell Taylor |
84 |
Daylon McCutcheon |
77 |
Hank Poteat |
57 |
Ken Hamlin |
47 |
Tony Parrish |
95 |
Marquis Smith |
83 |
Rogers Beckett |
63 |
Kevin Garrett |
50 |
Ramos McDonald |
|
|
87 |
Gary Berry |
78 |
Drayton Florence |
52 |
Roosevelt Blackmon |
|
|
88 |
Mike Brown |
95 |
Terrence Holt |
60 |
Samari Rolle |
|
|
|
|
96 |
Rod Babers |
79 |
Robert Williams |
|
|
|
|
97 |
Ricky Manning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
99 |
DeJuan Groce |
Observations:
- First Round Reaches:� Seven DB were taken in�98; those were: Woodson, Starks, Williams, Fair, Jones, Darius and McQuarters.� Of those, (3) carried 2nd round grades; additionally, Starks (drafted at 1.10) must have been considered somewhat of a reach.� Five DB were taken in the opening frame of �99; those were: Bailey, McAlister, Winfield, Bryant and Edwards.� Of those, both Bryant and Edwards carried 2nd round grades and neither has really proved out.� Only three DB were taken in the �00 first stanza; both O�Neal and Anderson were reaches though O�Neal has flashed.� In sum, of eight first round reaches, perhaps four (Starks, Jones, Darius and O�Neal) have shown; Anderson and Edwards must be regarded as busts with Fernando Bryant and McQuarters somewhere between.� Quite obviously, had any team �reached� for Surtain and/or Rolle in the 1st of �98, that 4 for 8 would be adjusted upward.
- CB:� Four lead, or #1, CB were drafted in �98; those were: Woodson, Starks, Surtain and Rolle.� Of those, two were available at 1.27 as was Brian Kelly, an impact performer in the T-Buc system.� Two lead CB were drafted in �99; both Bailey and McAlister were top ten picks.� Mike McKenzie is a solid, big CB but somewhat south of a lead type and, as such, a far better value at some putative 2.59 (or in the actual slot, 2.55, where Scott Shields was selected).� The other top CB in that class (Winfield, Bly and McCutcheon) are too small to take on the run support duty required in the Steeler 3-4.� Of the very thin �00 class, only O�Neal has flashed as a lead CB though he�s been benched too.� In sum, (7) #1 type CB were drafted in the 98-00 period; (2) were available at 1.27.
- Safety:� Three safeties were taken in the 1st
in �98, one (Edwards) in �99 and none in �00.� Over those three years, only Williams and Grant carried 1st
round grades.� Grant lasted into
the 3rd where he was selected by Carolina and, subsequently,
out-performed 1st round reach Rashad Anderson.� Mike Brown must have been considered an
extreme reach when the Bears took him at the top of the 2nd;
however, Brown made the All-Rookie team and has proved out as a leader in
that beleaguered secondary; much the same may be said for Rogers Beckett
and the Bolts.� That said, value at
safety remains through the 1st day; IMO, Schulters is the best
of the �98 class, Jackson of the (weak) �99 group and Wesley of the class
of 2000.� Those players were
drafted in the 4th, 4th and 3rd
respectively.
The Huddle Report�s prospect lists are as good as any, and better than most but, in general, these have been of dubious utility in projecting success pro-ward.� (42) DB prospects are listed above in the �98-�00 top 100�s but as we will see only (23) have developed as starters.� In contrast, the record indicates that (44) DB taken in those years have so developed; that is, the Huddle Report Hot Hundreds hit just on 23/44 starters, missing on (21).�
In the table below, the terms �reach�, �value� and �BPA� are applied as may have been true just after draft day; there may be some irony in that.� (NR) means no rating but actually references that this prospect was in the Second Hundred (or later in several cases).� In some order approximating their performance, here are the players from the classes of 98-00 who have developed as starters.
Table of Starters (as listed in Ourlads):
1998, of 15 starters, 11
were top 80 prospects. |
1999, of 13 starters, 7
were top 100 prospects |
2000, of 16 starters, 5
were top 100 prospects. |
2003, 17 worth
considering. |
||||
3 |
CB Woodson, top 5 |
2 |
CB Bailey, top 10 |
30 |
CB O�Neal, 1st
round reach |
1 |
CB Terrence Newman |
40 |
CB Surtain, 2nd
round BPA. |
11 |
CB McAlister, top 10 |
NR |
SS Greg Wesley (3rd round
value) |
2 |
CB Marcus Trufant |
60 |
CB Rolle, 2nd
round reach who proved out. |
23 |
CB Winfield, mid-1st |
24 |
FS Grant, fell to 3rd
round and so was value. |
3 |
SS Troy Polamula |
22 |
CB Starks, 1st round
reach at 1.10. |
69 |
CB McKenzie, 3rd
round BPA type |
28 |
CB Plummer, late 1st
BPA type. |
4 |
CB Sammy Davis |
NR |
FS Lance Schulters (4th round) |
NR |
FS Dexter Jackson (4th round) |
88 |
SS Brown, 2nd
round reach who proved out |
5 |
CB Kevin Garrett |
41 |
SS Darius, reach in late 1st.
but proved out. |
46 |
CB Bly, 3rd
round value. |
NR |
CB Jason Webster, 2nd
round reach. |
6 |
DB Nnmadi Asomugha |
21 |
CB Kelly, value at top of 2nd.
|
31 |
CB Bryant, late 1st
BPA type. |
83 |
SS Beckett, a 2nd
round reach. |
7 |
DB Charles Tillman |
15 |
FS Williams, BPA type in
mid-1st |
NR |
CB Jason Craft (5th round) |
NR |
SS Kenoye Kennedy, (2nd
round) Could be upgraded. |
8 |
CB Drayton Florence |
32 |
FS Jones, mild reach at late
1st. |
NR |
SS Cory Hall (3rd round) |
NR |
CB David Macklin, (3rd
round reach) Starts but is an upgrade target. |
9 |
SS Bryan Scott |
NR |
CB Eric Warfield (7th
round).� Chiefs like him enough to
have given a big extension. |
84 |
CB McCutcheon, 3rd
round value. |
NR |
CB William Bartee, (2nd
round reach) Another upgrade target. |
10 |
NCB Rod Babers |
47 |
SS Tony Parrish, BPA type
in 2nd round. |
NR |
FS K. Carpenter (FA) |
NR |
CB� Mario Edwards (6th round). |
11 |
FS Colin Branch |
23 |
FS Corey Chavous, value in
top of 2nd round. |
NR |
CB Jerry Azmuth (5th round) |
NR |
CB Reggie Howard (FA). |
12 |
SS Terrence Keil |
36 |
CB RW McQuarters, mild
reach in late 1st. |
NR |
FS Rich Coady (3rd round) |
NR |
CB David Barrett, (4th round
value). Still, not exactly a dominator. |
13 |
DB Jesse Sowells |
NR |
CB Artrell Hawkins (2nd round
reach) |
|
|
NR |
SS Arturo Freeman (5th
round) Started in Miami but has received little interest in FA. |
14 |
NCB BJ Tucker |
27 |
CB Terry Fair |
|
|
NR |
FS Mike Green (7th
round).� Bears need an upgrade here. |
15 |
NCB Blue Adams |
NR |
FS Izell Reese (6th round) |
|
|
NR |
SS David Bowen (6th
round).� Skins will upgrade. |
16 |
SS Jeremy Shabazz |
|
Taylor, McDonald, Blackmon
and Williams either are scrubs or out of the league. |
|
IMO, Edwards, Vinson and
Smith are scrubs; Poindexter and Fisher are out of the league. |
|
Anderson, Charlton, Green,
Sanders, Goodrich, Roman, Kelly, Poteat and Berry have yet to develop. |
17 |
CB Leigh Bodden |
10 to 13 of the players on the �98 list could be described
as quality starters, fewer, maybe 8-10 of the �99 class get the same moniker but
even that figure dwarfs the class of 2000 where no one after Rogers Beckett (#7
above) could get the nod.� There are
(11) NR safeties and (10) NR CB listed but the quality is with safeties like
Schulters, Jackson and Wesley.� The top
NR CB, Warfield and Webster, are not in that class.� This suggests that it�s CB early or not at all; that conclusion
is identical that reached previously in So you want to draft a QB?
Leaving the DB and the 50/50 mark achieved by prognosticators there, consider the prospect ranking of some of the players picked by the Steelers in the years �98-�00.
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
|||
Rank |
Player |
Rank |
Player |
Rank |
Player |
34 |
Jeremy Staat |
18 |
Toy |
5 |
Spike |
42 |
Alan Faneca |
45 |
Kris Farris |
31 |
Marvel Smith |
60 |
Chris Conrad |
50 |
Amoz |
61 |
Danny Farmer |
68 |
Hines Ward |
75 |
Joey Porter |
77 |
Hank Poteat |
71 |
Fu |
81 |
Jerame Tuman |
|
|
|
|
88 |
Aaron Smith |
|
|
NR |
Townsend, Simmons |
NR |
Scott Shields (well, that
was right!) |
NR |
Clancy, Haggans. |
Staat, Conrad, Edwards, Farris, Shields, Farmer and Poteat busted; of those, only Shields could have been considered a �reach� where drafted.� Your other �reach� is Faneca but, of course, Alan proved out.� Farris and Farmer were huge �values� but again, that didn�t develop though other such: Ward, Fu, Amoz, Tuman and Aaron Smith rewarded the designation, more or less.� Results were similarly mixed for players picked �where they should have been�:� Porter, Spike and Marvel Smith made the value nut but that can�t be said for either Staat or Conrad.
We can talk about �value� and BPA but the record shows little reality attaches to that distinction.� That is, there is little proven operational difference between �reach� and �value at the spot.�� For example, in �98 CB like Fair, McQuarters, Chavous and Kelly were drafted ahead of Surtain and Rolle and, while, that did follow form, form did not predict performance.� That said, there are observable broad slot effects; after Rolle was drafted at 2.46, only (1) more CB taken (Eric Warfield) developed as a starter.� As demonstrated here (and previously), it�s early or not at all at CB but any time is the right time at safety.
The last is true for QB too though, hilariously, some of the glittering jewels in the local sport chat or print media are citing Tommy Maddox�s age as a factor in the Steelers� draft process.� That�s ludicrous; there is no position on the field where age matters less than at QB. �In fact, age (or experience) has been a positive for many players at the position to include: Gannon, Garcia, Brad Johnson among others.� In contrast, DB generally die the death at 30 or so.� The following Steelers are ordered by birth date, let�s do the numbers:
Brent Alexander, 7/10/71.
Tommy Maddox, 9/2/71.
Dewayne Washington, 12/27/72.
Chad Scott, 9/6/74.
Mike Logan, 9/15/74.
Charlie Batch, 12/5/74.
Deshea Townsend, 9/6/75.
Alex is older than Maddox but plays a young man�s position.� Washington will be 31 before the 2003 season closes; looking ahead, both Scott and Logan will be 30 when the 2004 campaign begins (though Logan isn�t currently under contract for that season).� Regardless, the age charge should be lodged were it belongs; that is in the Steelers� D-backfield.�
That is the unit that presses the sal-cap too and, if you think the salary structure is misaligned at QB now, imagine a QB prospect at 1.27 getting, say, Kendall Simmons money.� Drafted just past 27 last year, Simmons got a 3.2M bonus and hit the cap for 935.6K.� That exceeds the pre-incentive 2003 hits for both Maddox and Batch; income-wise, that package exceeds any likely incentive-realized 2003 income for Maddox and Batch combined.�� Any 1.27 deal will dwarf the QB contracts but, in contrast, would be trifling compared to what DW and Scott haul down.� Slot-wise, cap-wise, performance-wise, it�s going to be CB or safety, not QB.� Get used to it.