Week 9 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	72-34-3	10-3	82-37-3	Minnesota Baltimore Dallas
TOP	70-37-1	11-2	81-39-1	Seattle Dallas
100 yard rushers	39-14	5-1	44-15	Minnesota
>/= +2 Takeaways	52-5	5-0	57-5
YPA	84-21-3	8-5	92-26-3	Cleveland Seattle Baltimore Indianapolis Dallas

 

Futility Index, per right-most column above:

 

For the second time in (3) weeks, the YPA indicator proved faulty.� Generally at +80%, this week that category showed at 61.5%.� However, the (5) teams that won in that category did so despite ineffective passing attacks.� Each was less than 6.0 on offense; Dallas �won� that indicator with an astonishingly low 3.5 (the Lions were less than 3.0).� This suggests some efficacy cutoff here; in the same way that +1 in takeaways doesn�t factor, so some figure (say 6.0) must be the O-side minimum.�� Regardless:

 

Minnesota won most stat indicators but, as usual, yoked a high turnover offense with a low takeaway D-side and got rolled on the road to another dispiriting defeat.

 

As mentioned, Dallas had better O-numbers than did Detroit but both were awful.� Surely, this was a game completed before absolutely no witnesses.

 

Seattle was (-2) in takeaways.

 

Despite passing for just 77 yards on 20 attempts, Tennessee beat the Colts on a takeaway return for a TD.�

 

Cleveland won YPA 5.6 to 5.5 and limited the Steelers to just 3.5 YPC but lost on a lop-sided TOP margin combined with (-2) in takeaways.� The Browns got nearly half their offensive production on (2) pass plays; featuring the worst run attack in pro football, with no true FB, no competent OG and no evident franchise RB but with (4) former 2^nd picks at WR, Cleveland, inexplicably, tried to run out of a (2) TE set.� Stuffed in repetitive fashion, the incredibly inept Brown brain trust locked up.� Dense Davis and Bruce no-Arians together with Carm Policy give long-suffering Browns fans little hope of relief.

 

For the 2^nd week in a row, the Ravens out-gained their opposition but still lost.� The Falcons got to Blake (6) times; while Jeff threw effectively (14/27/1 for 227 or 8.48 gross YPA), those sacks reduced the Raven YPA net to 5.5.� DE Pat Kearney returned (1) fumble 4-yards what was, eventually, the deciding score.

 

Steelers Index:

 

1. (+2) against Cleveland, the Steelers are now (+1) on the season in takeaways.� They are 5-0 when even or better in that category; they are 0-3 otherwise.

 

2. With 20 takeaways, the Steelers lead the AFC.

 

3. With 19 turnovers, the Steelers lead the AFC.

 

4. Aaron Smith had (2) sacks last weekend.� He has (4) on the season, (3) have come against the Browns.

 

5. Last year, Smith had (2) of his (8) sacks against Cleveland; overall, that�s 5/12 sacks in 4/24 games.

 

6. Aaron Smith leads the Steelers with 8.5 TFL to include (4) sacks and (4.5) stuffs.

 

7. At the halfway mark, Gildon and Bell have combined for (1) sack and (1.5) stuffs.� Not good.

 

8. Tommy Maddox played fairly poorly last week and the ratings show it.� Maddox is down to 8^th in the NFL in QB rating, 10^th in YPA and is now T-1 in TD ratio.� On the plus side, he rose from 31^st to 29^th in INT ratio.

 

9. For the first time since he came to the club in �96, Jerome Bettis is not the Steelers leading rusher.� Zereoue has 373 yards rushing, Bettis 326.

 

10. �After signing Contract Three, Bettis was active for 12/18 games in 2001.� He was a positive factor in 10/12.� This year, he has been active for 6/8, 6/9 is a high probability.� He was a positive factor in, at most, 3/6 games active this year.� In sum, that�s 13/26 positive, trending towards 13/27.� Those numbers recall Dermonti Dawson�s decline over 1999-2000.

 

11. �As stated in the Golden Fleece, Part Deux, the direction is downward in Contract Three.� Greg Lloyd, Levon Kirkland, Joel Steed, Dermonti Dawson, and Leon Searcy fit the profile.� So did Carnell Lake and John Jackson though they skulked off elsewhere to die; Hardy Nickerson, Rod Woodson and, maybe, Will Wolford furnished exceptions to the rule.� The jury is out on Bettis and, maybe, Gildon too but polling is on-going.

 

Next Opponent:

 

The surprising Falcons are the best team that the Steelers have faced since the B&G got beat in New Orleans.� Atlanta is 5-3 with wins over Cincinnati, Baltimore, Carolina, NYG and the Saints.� Considering common opponents, the Falcons are 3-0 to the Steelers 2-1.� Atlanta has lost to the Bays, Green and Tampa, and to Chicago (in week 2 before that team was decimated by injury).� Atlanta has faced (3) teams with winning records at this season�s mid-point; their 1-2 mark against that opposition suggests that the Falcons are far from elite.� However, the Steelers have faced only (1) team, the Saints, with a passing mid-term record; the B&G lost that game.� To date, Pittsburgh has beaten no quality opponent; the Falcons aren�t the best around but they�re good enough to give the Steelers a test.

 

On offense, Atlanta is feast or famine; they scored (132) points in (4) games against GB, Cincinnati, Indy, and New Orleans; they scored (56) in (4) games against Chicago, TB, NYG and Baltimore.� Unsurprisingly, they are 3-1 in games where they�ve scored (30) or more and 2-2 in those games when they averaged (14).

 

When the Falcons have the ball, it is the Michael Vick show.� Vick leads the team in rushing with 362 @ 7.0 YPC. However, the Falcon RB tandem of TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn have combined for 670 yards; just 29 less than Zereoue and Bettis.� Vick is their playmaker but, on the record, the Falcon RB do compare with the Steelers.� Atlanta is 5^th in rushing with 144 YPG; they are 30^th in passing at just 177.3 YPG.

 

Atlanta is run-first because their WR group is about as pedestrian as any in the league.� Pat Finnerman, out of Villanova, leads that unit with 29 catches and (3) TD. �Finnerman is as big as Burress but far less talented; Shawn Jefferson is the other WR, though averaging 18.9 YPC Jeff hasn�t had consistent impact.� It is worth noting that Atlanta has just (5) aerial TD; in contrast, the Falcons have (13) overland. ��On the other hand, the Falcons have had just (5) INT against, of those, Vick has thrown (1).� The Steelers pass defense has had (11) picks in the last (4) weeks; however, against Atlanta�s low-risk pass mode, it�ll be coverage and pressure, not takeaways that seal the deal.� It is worth noting that the Falcons are 26^th in sacks allowed with (22).

 

When the Falcons have the ball: the Steeler dime D should get the week off.� This match-up will be decided up the middle; Hampton must control the Falcons interior O-line and Bell/Farrior must prevent Vick from stepping up and then high stepping through. �Duckett is a straight-ahead guy and generally the Steelers eat those types up; Dunn has wiggle but he�d need a time machine to get to his best days.� The Raven 3-4 stopped Vick with an inner triangle of Gregg, Hartwell and Harris; I�ve got to believe that Hampton, Bell and Farrior can do the same.

 

The Falcons have been fairly consistent on defense; they allow an average of just17 PPG; they are 5^th both in that category and yards allowed.� While NO and GB torched them for 35 and 37 respectively, the Falcons have given just 64 points to their other (6) opponents.� Of course, most of those teams have extremely poor O-sides; consider such scoring titans as Chicago (24^th), Baltimore (27^th), NYG and Cincinnati (T-28^th) and Carolina (30^th). �Tampa Bay was way down too before rising to 17^th this week.� The Falcons were torched by the #2 and #3 scoring teams but stuffed the rest.�

 

Atlanta plays a 3-4 but unlike the Steelers have trouble stopping the run.� Their front is light and, excluding DE Pat Kearney and ILB Keith Brookings, they are a fairly ordinary assemblage.� Brookings is a tackling machine; he has (65) T this year, the next guy, ILB John Holecek, has (39).� Pat Kearney has (6) of Atlanta�s (20) sacks and. last week, scored the deciding TD on a 4-yard fumble return.

 

Atlanta gives 4.7YPC and 122.9 YPG rushing; that�s 27^th and 21^st respectively.� You�d think the Steelers could run but, last week, they averaged just 3.5YPC against a soft Browns group.� Still, the Atlanta front can be moved and, with Simmons coming on, I believe that will happen for, give or take, 155 rushing.

 

Atlanta is 6^th in air yards against, 6^th in YPA against and 4^th in opponents QB rating.� Very impressive until you consider they�ve played Akili Smith and Randy Fasani.� Brooks and Favre lit them up; Maddox is closer to those two than to the Bengal/Panther duo.� The Falcon CB, Buchanon and Ambrose, are short and old; their top PD guy was Juran Bolden and he is likely to be inactive.� Atlanta is thin in the secondary; they are ripe for a 4-wide beating.

 

When the Steelers have the ball: they need to re-establish the rhythm evident early against the Ravens and Colts but absolutely absent last week.� That�s not easy when your feature back gets less than 2 yards on half of his carries; Zereoue had a lot of yards despite a lot of negative plays.� On balance, he had an excellent game but his propensity to get nothing on any given foray subverted any rational sequence of play calling.

 

Haynes was more a problem than an asset; this man may have some running ability but he is worthless as a 3^rd down back.� He can�t catch the ball; he can�t pass protect.� If Amos needs some rest, it would be far better to give Haynes a series or two than require the mid-round rookie to contribute on the 3^rd.

 

Maddox threw high and behind too often last week.� That can happen, especially if a QB is favoring his plant foot.� Next week, Tommy will be (14) days from his Gregg-stomping.� That should be enough; I expect T-Max to be back on-line and on time.

 

Summary:� Pittsburgh has (5) of (8) at home but the road games include two venues that have been tough (Tennessee and Jacksonville) together with a Monday tilt against the Bucs.� To get to the post-season bye conceded to them pre-season, the Steelers will need to win all (5) home games.� Figure this as #1, say, 24-14.