Palmer�s
Pre-Season Preview
September 7, 2011
By PalmerSucks
The
Stillers come off a super �10 campaign � disappointing only from the last game
� fighting the curse of the Super Bowl loser. That is to say, the team that
loses the Super Bowl usually tanks it the next season.
There
are a couple reasons this probably won�t happen, but one that will play a
factor if it does. First off, on the plus side, there�s the offense, which will
determine how far the Stillers go this year. The key to understanding the �11
Stillers is the huge transformation that the team has undergone: namely, the
Stillers have become an offensively
driven team.
Ignore
all the talk on TV you�ll hear about that �great Stillers D.� The sports media
love to live in the past, where the Stillers are all about defense and the run
game. The Stiller D is in fact overrated � I don�t mean they suck or anything �
it�s just that they are not the dominating unit they once were � and will be
portrayed again to be this year. Why? Let me give you a clue:
Name��������� NFL Experience (Years)
Farrior�������� 15
Smith���������� 13
Keisel��������� 10
Hampton���� 11
Clark����������� 10
Polamalu����� 9
Harrison������ 8
That�s
not a defense, that�s an old folks home � in fact, the Stillers have one of the
oldest (on average) defensive units since the NFL started keeping records. Its
two marquee players, Polamalu and Harrison, are on the sides of their careers where the athletic skills generally begin to
decline. The Stillers will try to make up for speed with experience, and we�ll
have to see how this works when December rolls around. Already there are signs
to watch for � the normally dominant run defense seemed to give up a fair
amount of outside runs this pre-season.
If the
run D at all becomes a problem, there�s a bumpy ride ahead. An older, slower
defense accounts for a great deal of why the pass defense gives it up to the
spread, and why it breaks down late in games. The Stillers amazing ability to
stop the run makes up for a lot of other stuff � they can �t
afford it to step down even a little in this department. Let�s just hope the
younger guys, Hood and Timmons, are up to the challenge of making up some of
the age gap.
Balancing
out this potential problem is the Stillers offense, which, if the Stillers are
to make another Bowl run, will have to carry the load. That�s fortunate,
because the Stillers are loaded at the skill positions � this is the best WR
unit Ben Roethlisberger�s ever had, the best the Stillers have fielded since
Mills, Thigpen and Hastings roamed the turf. I normally don�t follow pre-season
stats, but Ben�s deserve a mention: through three games he was 21 of 31 with 4
TDs, hadn�t come close to throwing a pick, for an incredible 146.6 rating. If
the O-line can keep him upright, he�s headed for a monster season. (That need
took on new importance with the loss of Byron Leftwich, the NFL�s best
back-up.) In short, the franchise is now being run by The Franchise.
Should
the unthinkable happen, the Stillers will have to rely on Charlie Batch, the
offensive answer to the old-man defensive squad, or worse, Dennis Dixon. Neither one inspires much confidence, though if I had
to choose I�d go with Batch, who at least gets the passing game.
But
back to the WRs for a moment. As a MAC school grad, I follow that college league�s games
regularly, and those of you who read me know I�ve loved Antonio Brown (whom I
call �Loudmouth� for obvious reasons) from day one. From Roethlisberger to
Harrison, the MAC stars keep helping the Stillers add to their list of division
and league titles. Now add Central Michigan�s Brown to the list.
In his
second season the Loudmouth appears ready to break out, and will join Ward,
Wallace and Sanders to form a formidable WR group. (Add to that the brilliant
acquisition of Jerricho Cotchery, and you have maybe the deepest unit in
football.) Loudmouth is an athletic freak, a man whose conditioning capacity
allows him to outwork and outhustle just about anyone � his practice habits
have become legend. The Stillers now have the luxury of looking at Ward as a
third option if they wish � something that may happen as the season goes on.
The
running back unit too is stacked, with Mendenhall backed by the bull known as
Ike Redman (look for him to get more carries this year, as his power simply
can�t be ignored any longer). If that�s not enough, Jonathan Dwyer�s shown why
he�s another late-round gem, having broken off several beautiful runs this
pre-season. Only the O-line is suspect, mostly because we have to see how
Jonathan Scott can do (I hated the release of Max Starks). This won�t be a
great unit, but as long as they can keep Ben from getting killed, I�ll take
what they bring.
Obviously
the Stillers are set with Pouncey, the latest in a line of great centers. But
can Doug Legursky take on a starting OL position? At 6-1, 315 he�s maybe the
smallest guard in pro football, although I�m told he�s also one of the
strongest. Chris Kemoeatu mans the other guard spot, where he excels at pulling
and also committing the dumbest penalties in the game. Willie Colon, always
loved by the team for some reason, attempts to replace Flo Adams, who dominated
at times last year. If these guys can gel into even a decent pass-pro unit, the
Stillers should have no problem scoring points � lots of them.
The
Stillers showed a lot of pass looks this pre-season, both with multiple WR and
TE sets. The TEs as a group should improve with the subtraction of Matt �Zero
YAC� Spaeth � the underrated David Johnson looks set to claim his spot.
As for
the defense, though, the outlook is a little more up in the air.
The
Stillers cut interesting young prospects like Crezdon Butler, yet continue to
keep Willie Gay, who must have pictures of someone from the front office
engaged in foul acts with farm animals. I don�t know how else to account for
him sticking to the roster. The Stillers amaze me sometimes with such moves,
and I continue to wonder what kind of performance they�ll get from such a
sickly secondary. The Stillers did NOT address the problems that plagued their
defense last year � namely, defending against teams that spread out the field
and dink pass them to death. That�s not a good sign heading into the season.
In
short, look for the �11 Stillers � if they�re lucky, that is � to resemble more
the �78 unit, a team that relied on its offense to make up for an aging defense
living off its reputation. They certainly have the skill players to do it; now
we�ll have to see if the O-line can pull its weight. There will be games where
the Stillers will have to score 30 points to win � I know the QB and WRs are up
to the challenge. The question is, are the guards and tackles, too? Stay tuned.
BALTIMORE
VS.
STILLERS, WEEK ONE: The Ravens host the Stillers, who, whether they�ll admit it
or not, are deep inside their purple heads. The Ravens had, in my opinion, one
of the better drafts, adding corner Jimmy Smith and WR Torrey Smith. The Smiths
will give them speed at both positions they�ve been missing for a long time.
The Ravens have some of the same issues as the Stillers, including the age of
their defenders � Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are both eligible for the bingo squad.
Look for the absence of Todd Heap to hurt the Ravens more than some realize. A
key will be getting Ray Rice matched up in space against old man Farrior � if
the Ravens can pull that off, they�ll have a good shot at winning. Otherwise,
we�ll have another Ravens-Stillers bangfest, with the edge going to Pittsburgh
because Joe Flacco will never be Ben Roethlisberger.
Elsewhere
around the AFC North:
CLEVELAND:
The Brownies should be the division�s most improved squad, with Colt McCoy
showing signs of having what it takes to be an NFL QB. In the meantime, the
team will try to smashmouth it with the superb Peyton Hillis. Until guys like
Sheldon Brown and D�Qwell Jackson show they can be actual NFL defenders,
however, the best Cleveland can shoot for is Mount Mediocrity -- which would be
an improvement considering how embarrassing they�ve been the last decade.
CINCINNATI:
Cleveland could be the surprise team, which leaves the Bungals back in the
basement. No other team suffers from the sheer organizational dysfunction that
Cincy does, from their despised owner to their ineffective head coach. Not
everything is dark though � the team finally got rid of dead wood like
Ochostinko, and don�t sleep on Andy Dalton, who has a chance to be something
more than the Choker he�s replacing. (I thought Dalton might�ve been the best
QB coming out of college last year.) Speaking of the great gagger, Carson P.
was last seen whining that he refused to play for such a poor team � sort of
like the pilot blaming the plane for the shitty ride. What, my fault we suck? Hey I�m just the quarterback! When your
�leader� wants QB money and punter responsibility, you know you�re in trouble.
And when aren�t the Bungals in
trouble?
SUPER
PREVIEW: The AFC is up in the air; choose your favorite among New England, the
Jets, Stillers, Ravens and the up-and-coming KC Chiefs. (I�d throw the Indy
Colts in there, except for Manning�s suddenly uncertain status.) In the NFC, I
look for Philly to battle it out with Chicago � the rest of the world will hop
the Green Bay wagon, but they�ll be eliminated once somebody figures out just
how weak they are against the run.
Anyway,
enjoy the season, Stillers� fans, and whether you�re old enough or not:
remember �78!