Week 13 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	111-50-3	13-2	124-52-3	Miami St. Louis
TOP	114-49-1	13-2	127-51-1	Cincinnati Tampa Bay
100 yard rushers	59-24	9-2	68-26	Miami Denver
>/= +2 Takeaways	74-6	9-0	83-6
YPA	126-33-5	10-5	136-38-5	Washington Cincinnati Chicago Denver Seattle

 

Futility Index:

 

With foul weather setting in, the traditional indicators (rushing and TOP) held sway this week.� Regardless of weather, takeaways remain the deal.� The Eagle�s win over St. Louis is a good example; Philly lost (4) fumbles but countered that with (5) takeaways and held on, 10-3.� In other results:

 

Miami�s Ricky Williams went for +200 on the ground but the Fins gave up about 150 to Travis Henry, were (-3) in takeaways and had just 1.4 YPA.

 

The Rams had a bit of a rushing margin but couldn�t deal with the Eagles pressure.� As mentioned, the Rams turned it over (5) times; in addition, Warner was sacked (8) times.

 

Cincinnati was (-2); the Ravens got (2) return for TD against the Bengals and so, again, won though out-gained.

 

Tampa Bay dominated the Saints but was (-2); the Bucs had a D-side return for TD nullified by some dubious officiating.

 

LT and the Bolts gouged Denver�s vaunted run defense for over 200 yards; the Broncos were (-3) too.

 

The Fun �n Gun furnished the �Boys with (4) INT; the Skins FA clotted defense allowed 211 yards rushing @ 5.9 per carry.

 

Chicago had (5) turnovers; they were (-2) on the game.

 

Cleveland had (5) turnovers (-3 on the game); Couch accounted for (4).

 

Seattle�s Matt Hasselback flung it 55 times for 427 yards and was not sacked.� Despite that, the S�Hawks couldn�t overcome a 1^st quarter PR TD-against so lost on the road in SF.

 

�Steelers Index:�

 

1. After leading by (6) at the half and (9) through (3) quarters, the Steelers got to the magic >10 point mark when Reed�s 5^th FG opened a (12) point advantage at 3:23 in the 4^th quarter.� They held that advantage for all of 2:46, until Brunell hit Brady for the Jags 2^nd TD.� Subsequently, the Steeler dime-D gave another score before the base group stopped the Jags last ditch 2-point try.� Though his team was out-scored 13-3 in the late going, congrats to Coach Cowher for extending his life-long +10 or better mark to 73-1-1, give or take.� Great work Coach!

 

2. Since we�re on the subject of W/L mumbo-jumbo, what can we make of this?� Keydrick Vincent is 2-0 as a starter; KV opened at LOG in game 16 last season and, yesterday, worked for Simmons at the ROG spot.�

 

3. Here�s a statistic that matters: yesterday, the Jags were 3/11 on 3^rd down.� On the downside, they did convert a 4^th down in the course of scoring their 2^nd TD. Still, even 4/12 is damn good.

 

4. Kudos to Chris Hope; Hope had (6) solos yesterday, doubling his season total.� One was a fine open-field stop against Fred Taylor; had he whiffed here, Taylor would have had a lot of room to run.� On this play, Hope showed that he can be Flowers successor; I never doubted that but I do question whether the Steelers� prime need in the secondary is run support.

 

5. Josh Reed has made 9/10 FG in two games; he is 3/3 from 40-49 and 1/2 from beyond that.� In contrast, Todd Petersen was 12/21 during his term here, 3/7 from 40 and on.� Reed made (3) FG in his first game and, yesterday, had (6).� I guess we can look for (9), then (12) in the weeks to come.�

 

Seriously, the greatest moment in yesterday�s game occurred when Tom Coughlin�s jaw dropped at the moment that Reed�s 50-yarder went through.� Coughlin had auditioned Reed earlier this year before settling on Tim Seder; subsequently, he cut that man and installed R. Cunningham.� Reed�s long-range blast provided our Great-Lead-Protector his winning edge; I�m certain they�ll be something by way thanks flowing south, from coach-to-coach, in this Holiday Season.

 

6. The Steelers� had (15) INT at the mid-mark this season; in (4) games since, they�ve had none.�

 

7. The Steelers� past two victims have (6) wins, combined.� Their next two opponents, Houston and Carolina, are generally considered walkovers; however, those teams have totaled (7) wins.� The Steelers� final foe-duo has (15) wins between them, (obviously) (2) more than the (4) squads previously mentioned.

 

8. Kudos to Ken Bell; yesterday, this man had (2) sacks and provided some additional pressure up the middle on delayed blitzes.� Bell broke his �02 maiden sack-wise and, at the moment, is even with Gildon at 3.5 TFL.� It is worth noting that Bell missed the better part of (5) games and, since then, has been a 2-down player.� In contrast, Big Jas has been on the field for about every down this year.� Last year, Bell had (4.5) more TFL than Gildon.� What�s your over/under for this campaign? �

 

9. In the past two games, the Steeler defense has been on the field a total of 47:11; that�s 23:35 per game and that�s less, on average, than in 2001.� Last year, the Steeler D-side allowed >20 points in (3) games; they�ve given (21) and (23) in the past two.

 

10. Joey Porter will be going to the Pro Bowl and he should.� Porter�s sack/PD/INT numbers combined exceed all LB and he continues to lead the Steelers in solo stops.� On the downside, Porter has done little over the past (3) games; he had his 4^th pick in Game 8, his 7^th sack (and 2^nd FF) in Game 9.� He got tooled in Tennessee and hasn�t done much lately.� Hopefully, the Steelers� TOP advantage over the past two weeks has served to re-charge Joey; it is entirely clear that he left it all on the field against Vick @ Heinz but maybe, (28) days off will be enough recovery time.

 

11. �Here is the Steelers� record against opponents, with their W/L mark, through 12 games:

 

Opponents� record	Steelers� win	Steelers� loss	Steelers� tie	Identify
8-3-1			1	Falcon
8-4	1	1		Saints Colts
7-4		1		Raiders
7-5		2		Patriots Titans
6-6	3			Browns Ravens
5-7	1			Jaguars
1-10	2			Bengals

�

Off that, you�ve got to conclude that the Steelers� finest effort this year came against the Falcons in quarters 1, 2, 3 and 5.

 

Next Opponent:

 

The Texans are appallingly awful on offense and that is almost entirely due to their O-line.� Houston made Tony Boselli their first pick in the expansion draft but Tony hasn�t played a down this season.� Their line is made up of rookies and cast-offs and, as a consequence, their skill position guys have struggled.� Here are some numbers:

 

QB David Carr has been sacked (64) times; that�s 5.33 per game.� Anything less on Sunday will be unacceptable.

 

RB Jonathan Wells is their top rusher; Wells has a 3.0 YPC; anything more on Sunday will be unacceptable.

 

WR Corey Bradford was scored (6) of the Texans� (16) TD; Bradford is a deep threat; he has averaged 17.4 YPC on (35) grabs.� It is unlikely that the Steelers can man-up on Bradford; then again, if the rush gets to Carr, that won�t matter.

 

The Texans run a 3-4 and have played pretty well on the D-side.� Man for man, their secondary is superior to the Steelers; D-linemen Gary Walker and Seth Payne gave the B&G problems when they were wearing Jax-teal and, probably, will do so again.� ILB Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman are the Texans leading tacklers; we are all familiar with Sharper if not ex-Bill Foreman.�

 

Possibly, the most entertaining aspect, personnel-wise, will be in comparing the play of the Texan OLB to that of Jason Gildon.� You may remember that, during the FA period last winter, Steeler HQ was, reportedly, all atwitter at the prospect that Capers would strip them of #92.� That so, the B&G brain trust moved to pre-empt Dom by applying their franchise tag to Jas and, shortly, followed that with a meaty offer, binding their LOLB here through his 35^th birthday.� So thwarted, the Texans were forced to look towards ex-Vike Kailee Wong and ex-Jag Jeff Posey to staff the position.� Here are the numbers, to date: �

 

Player	Tackles	Sacks	Stuffs	FF	INT	PD
Jeff Posey	40	7.5	1.0	2	1	5
K. Wong	36	4.5	1.5	1	0	5
Jason Gildon	47	3.0	0.5	0	0	4

 

On the face of it, Posey is the impact player.� Posey is certainly the best bargain; he is making the vet minimum, 525K.

 

Judgment:

 

Expect the Steeler defense to inflate their season sack, stuff and PPG numbers.� It is highly unlikely that the Texans will spread the field because, if they do, it is highly unlikely that they will protect their QB.� However, if they spread it anyway, and the Steelers go dime (or worse) and eschew pressure, all bets are off.

 

The most intriguing story this week focuses on the Steeler QB situation.� Mainstream guys like Wexall, Smizik and Prisuta all have called for the return of Tommy and I don�t disagree.� I do think Coach Cowher was properly conservative in letting Maddox sit last week; it was Dr. Maroon�s professionally honed instinct to give T-Max more time and, were I in Cowher�s position, I too would have deferred to that judgment.� Presumably now, Maddox is ready to go and, if so, he should be returned to the line-up.

 

Kordell played well; as always, Kordell gave us all he has to give.� However, Kordell�s best value now is in trade, not in the line-up.� IMO, there is absolutely no way Stewart would do a new deal in Pittsburgh; his relationship with Cowher, and with most fans here, is not good.� That so, following 2003 Stew will be gone with no return; better he be dealt this winter, hopefully for a package of picks in the Trent Green/Drew Bledsoe range.

 

Speaking of winter, the Steelers have to discover whether T-Max can play in that season.� Maddox made his bones in-doors in the Arena League and, later, with LA in McMahon�s summer league.� I like Tommy, I called for Tommy to replace Kordell pre-Saints but he has yet to show the kind of tight-spiral rifle that, traditionally, has worked in bad weather.� Tommy throws to spots, he throws on time (usually), he uses all his weapons but, usually, he throws balls with some flutter.� We�ll see whether that translates in December. �Certainly, Houston�s secondary and Carolina�s D-line would give him a test up here; the Buccaneer unit will too but, of course, weather will not be a factor as winter does not exist in the Sunshine State.� ����