2004 Game 6 Preview: Steelers @ Dallas
The 4-1 Steelers go on the road for the third time this season, last before their bye week.� A win would put them (at least) two up in division while, even if a loss didn�t linger over the break, it certainly might disrupt the momentum this edition is establishing.� The 2-2� �Boys, who are in danger of losing all touch with the leaders in their NFC East, (the 4-0 Eagles and 4-1 NYG), have to be approaching desperation.�
If you believe Bill Parcells, then, when the Steelers have the ball, his (no doubt hapless) defense will face, in Ben Roethlisberger, a sure fire HOF QB.� This week, Parcells compared Ben to the immortal Dan Marino, saying he�s seen no better rook at the position since 1983, Marino�s maiden.� Well I guess, although it�s worth noting that Marino tossed 20 TD that season against just 6 INT while Ben, 5 games in, has thrown 5 TD vs. 4 picks.� Then too, while Roethlisberger�s passer rating (91.3) is impressive, it�s just a bit south of that Tommy Maddox accomplished in a similar period when, through 3 starts and 1 relief appearance in 2002, Maddox rated at 91.9.�
It could be said that defenses caught up to Tommy but just as likely the difference is purely physical.� Like few QB in the league (Culpepper, McNair and McNabb come to mind), Roethlisberger has shown the capacity to create something out of broken plays.� In contrast, when his protection broke down, Maddox became (quickly) just part of the debris.�
Of course, scheme does factor; if that weren�t so, then there would be little reason to compensate D-coordinators.� This week, the Steelers face Parcells (and Dave Campo); after the bye, they�ll get Bill Bellichick, who made his bones with Parcells, and then Jim Johnson, architect of the Eagles� full-on blitz packages.� For smarts, there�s little to choose among those three, all are at the top of the heap; as for personnel, well, as we�ll see, Dallas is up the track.��
Roethlisberger has shown the ability to make game-changing plays on the move.� Maybe, he can win in a pure dropback mode (ala Marino), but that�s not yet proven.� This has been: out of the pocket, Ben can win.� Reacting to that, expect opposing defenses will try to keep him in the pocket.�
This week, Dallas may come with a two-phase rush, their D-line pressuring to contain rather than sack Ben, while some set of back 7 rushers delay, then come on to close the deal. In that case, consider the D-side personnel down in Big D:
- The onus would be on the Dallas DE to contain Ben.� If, like most right-handers, Roethlisberger prefers to roll right; the match-up will be Oliver Ross on LDE Marcellus Wiley.�� The Dallas right has notched 7 of the �Boys 11 sacks; RDE Greg Ellis leads with 5, RDT LeRoi Glover has 2.�� If Ben can�t get out, those guys can cave his blindside.
- Dallas does have the capacity to win off delays.� Their LB corps, including MLB Dat Nguyen and (Tampa refugee) WOLB Al Singleton, is built on speed.� Dexter Coakley and Bradie James are rotating at SOLB; both can run some, even if Coakley is well past his peak.��
- Like most of Parcells� D-sets, the Dallas safeties do blitz: FS Tony Dixon is 2nd on the team with 3 sacks, back-up Keith Davis has 1.� Oddly, all-world SS Roy Williams has none, to date.�
To my understanding, Dallas plays the NT/UT variety of the 4-3 with Glover as a 3-tech and Leonardo Carson or Chad Eaton (a better stuffer) on the nose.� In some pass situations, Hartings figures to be engaged with a NT, Keydrick Vincent uncovered.� If Wiley can widen Oliver Ross, it will be on Vincent to pick up the �Boys 2nd wave blitzers, their LB or S.� In the same way that the PS upgraded at QB through injury, Vincent is a superior player to Kendall Simmons.� That said, he has had some problems in blitz pick-up and, while a powerful player, is not especially agile laterally.� Sunday, Vincent�s performance in this role figures as key.�
That 2nd wave notion founders against any team with a quality receiving TE; however, the Steelers are not among the numbered.� Circle routes work too but to date, neither Staley nor Haynes has been featured in a receiving role.� Upfront, Dallas returns most starters from their 2003 set, which was ranked #1 in the league.� They return their two top DB too, CB Terrence Newman and SS Roy Williams, which could spell trouble for the PS.� Against that, the fact that this �Boys secondary is half beaten down; as:
- In FA off-season, Dallas lost their prior starting RCB, Mario Edwards.� Pete Hunter was to be the starter; drafted in 2002 as a quality size/speed small school 2nd day prospect (in the mode of Ike Taylor), Hunter began okay this season but ripped up a knee in Week 2.� Now, it�s Jacques Reeves, a R7 rookie.��
- When Hunter went down, Reeves moved up from NCB, Nate Jones moved into NCB and Bruce Thornton to DCB.� All are 2nd day rookies; like Reeves, Jones is a R7, Thornton R4.� Last week, in his first action, Thornton blew a knee; to compensate, the Boys picked up vet Tyrone Williams who once was a (highly combustible) starter in GB.���
Now, of 4 healthy CB in Big D, two are R7 rookies, a third is a vet who hasn�t played in sometime.� All figure to be exploitable.� Then too, Dallas is thin at safety with long-term fixture Darren Woodson out.� His replacement, Tony Dixon, is just a guy.� In blitz mode or out, this group does not figure to match-up.� One stat showing this is passer rating against, where the Boys are #19, allowing a losing 87.1.���
As a group, their DB don�t match-up but if that 2nd wave does break, then Ben is gonna have to identify those underneath defenders who are dropping in coverage, rather than coming to pressure.� Of course, that�s just one aspect; (even the lesser) since these 2004 Steelers are a run first team, So far, the PS has rushed 179 times against 120 passes called, a rate just under 60% run.� Featured in that:
- After a slow start, Duce Staley has 3 consecutive 100-yard games.� In those, 341 yards on 66 trips.
- That�s the top streak here since 2001 when the Bus rolled over 100 four straight, in Weeks 3 through 6.�
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- Four times in 2002, a Steeler RB rushed for 100 (Zereoue 3, Bettis 1), twice in 2003 (Bettis, both times).�� That is, over just 5 games, Staley has had as many 100-yard games as any single Steeler RB managed over the past 32, (two seasons).
A productive run game helps any QB.� For the most part, Dallas hasn�t had that.� Through the first 3 weeks, the �Boys ran just 70 times, passing 117.� That�s 37% run, which isn�t gonna get it.� However, over their Week 4 bye, the Boys must have worked to resurrect the run as, last week against the NYG, they ran 30 times, passing just 24.� They ran well too, as Dallas got 166 yards on the ground against NY, a 5.5 YPC; previously, they�d run at just 3.5.� So, when Dallas has the ball, will they run, or will they throw?�
IMO, so long as the game is close, the Boys figure to run.� To date, the PS run D has had mixed success.� Falling back early, both Oakland and Cleveland abandoned their run game; the Steelers crushed the hapless Fin rush but didn�t do enough against either the Ravens or Bengals.�� A couple notes:
- In LT Flozell Adams and LG Larry Allen, Dallas has one of the better left-side tandems in the league; certainly, this is the best duo the PS has faced since Week 2.� Like the Steelers, the �Boys figure to run left more often than not.
- That quality doesn�t carry through: OC Al Johnson gets thrown around, RG Andre Guorde is just a guy and RT Torrin Tucker (best known for allowing Zo two sacks in a 2003 x-hib session) is starting mainly because R2 rook Jacob Rogers has yet to step up.�
- Eddie George is the starter at RB but rook RaShard Lee is the Boys best pure runner.� Presumably, Lee has issues with pass protection so, if he�s in, that figures to tip run.� At this point, George can do it all, except job #1 for any RB, advance the ball.�
Dallas is just #20 on the ground but it is worth noting that they�ve faced two top 10 run-D, Minnesota and Washington.� Their 2nd opponent, Cleveland, was in that category too, until the PS ran them down last week.� YPC-wise: Washington has allowed 2.8, Cleveland 3.7, Minnesota 4.3 and NYG 4.9.� The Steelers are tied with Cleveland at 3.7; Dallas didn�t run much against the Browns, but may shift tactics this Sunday.
Trickeration figures too: Week 2, do-it-all RB/FB/receiver Richie Anderson turned QB-for-a-play, launching a 26-yard TD toss that, as it turned out, was the difference vs. Cleveland.� Finally, Vinnie:
- Testaverde has been sacked only 5 times while getting off 141 passes.� That�s 3.4%, about half the league average.� However, that�s less about quality protection than the fact that Vinnie gets it out.� To date, he�s thrown just 4 INT but his completion rate, 58.7%, is below today�s standard.� IMO, that�s not accuracy issue, it�s that, under pressure, Vinnie gets rid of the ball quick.��
- Dallas features good balance in their receiving corps with their top four receivers (Witten, Johnson, Bryant and Glenn) having 17,16,15 and 15 receptions.�� Straight up, they have the personnel to spread the PS; however, as job #1 has to be protect Vinnie, the �Boys may not do that.� Their right side figures to be susceptible to Coach LeBeau�s pressure packages, especially the OLB stack he flashed Week 1.�
That dichotomy is a key aspect in this game.� Dallas has a spread matchup advantage, especially with #3 WR Antonio Bryant, whose 16.3 YPC leads the �Boys, against the Steelers� down-chart DB and their #1 TE Jason Witten, whose 17 receptions lead the team, against any Steeler LB this side of Joey Porter.� However, if Coach Parcells doesn�t feel his O-line can hold up against the LeBeau pressure packs, then that spread, and those mismatches, may not eventuate.�
If Dallas can rattle Roethlisberger, getting up early on TO, they figure to run all day.� If not, and if the Boys don�t get up else-wise, then BP may risk his season exposing Testaverde, especially as QB Drew Henson, a physical specimen on Ben�s level, is in the wings.� In that case, full circle for the Tuna; face a phenom rook QB now, feature one later.�
Notes:�
The Steelers have been penalized 36 times for 353 yards.� That�s tied for worst in that category; Dallas shares that dubious distinction.� The difference?� Dallas has played 4 games, the PS 5.
Both Dallas and Pittsburgh have 8 turnovers.� The difference?� Dallas has just 4 takeaways, for a �4.�� With 12 takes, the Steelers are +4; on the downside, just +1 over the past two games.�
Unjustly maligned for a couple weeks, Joey Porter leads the team in QB pressures with 11; in rush influence, (the sum of pressure and sacks), his (11+1=12) leads Aaron Smith (8+3=11).� Porter also leads the team with 8 PD.� Deshea Townsend is 2nd in that area with 7; hands-on-a-pass, (INT plus PD), DT leads with 9; Porter is #2.� Troy Polamalu is #3 with 7, (2+5), while leading the team in tackles.