Week 11 in Review

November 18, 2002 by Steel Phantom

Week 1

Week 11 in Review:

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	89-41-3	13-2	102-43-3	San Francisco Buffalo
TOP	91-41-1	12-3	103-44-1	San Francisco Houston Buffalo
100 yard rushers	47-19	7-1	54-20	Buffalo
>/= +2 Takeaways	61-6	3-0	64-6
YPA	100-28-5	12-3	112-31-5	San Francisco New Orleans Cincinnati

Futility Index:

There were some huge TOP margins Sunday and, in that category, size does matter.� Check this:

�� Colts: �� 40:03

�� Jets: �� 38:44

�� Giants:�� 36:42

�� Raiders:�� 36:37

�� Titans:�� 36:33

�� Browns:�� 36:22

�� Bucs:�� 35:53

�� Fins:�� 34:07

San Francisco won every category and took care of the ball too but still lost.

Buffalo won every category except YPA but lost by (1).

Atlanta and Cleveland won every category but YPA; each team won by (7).� New Orleans� porous pass defense held Atlanta to 137 yards net passing, roughly half what the Falcons had at Heinz.

Steelers Index:�

This week, the only statistics of significance are those dealing with the recovery rate for persons who have suffered the kind of spinal injury that put down T-Max.� This year, the Steelers� biggest win will occur when 31-year old Tommy Maddox, devoted husband and father of two, is able to walk into his home, lift up his children and kiss his wife.

Kordell Stewart performed effectively under difficult circumstances.� Kordell was 13/17 for 124 yards and (2) TD in the final quarter.� Some may compare Stew�s performance in the Music City to T-Max�s work in Cleveland 1 though, obviously, the game was then on the line, and, yesterday, the outcome was already decided. That so, Kordell-bashers might compare his work yesterday to that in New England when the B&G moved effectively on their last drive for an entirely meaningless score.�

Whatever.� Any such comparison is odious; what is, is and while no one, least of all Kordell Stewart, would want it like this, Kordell is the guy again and, again, the Steelers� season is on the brink.

So long as the Steeler D-side performs as it has, it doesn�t matter who plays QB.� The Steelers have allowed (30) points or more to (5) of (6) extra-division opponents.� They are, unsurprisingly, 0-4-1 in those contests.

Not that it matters but Mark Madden�s column Saturday suggesting that the Steelers go to a nickel pack featuring Porter and Bell as twin backers came just about (15) months after that was prescribed by this writer.�� Great minds think alike, though some a bit more slowly; what matters more is what the Steeler D-brain trust intends.

The Steeler D-side has struggled on third down all season.� After two weeks, facing a steady diet of the no-huddle spread, the Steelers had allowed 3^rd down conversions at 17/33.� That was 30th in the League, just ahead of the Jets and 49ers.� Ten games gone now, the Steelers are ranked 31^st having allowed 74/152.� That is a percentage of 48.7, just ahead of the Niners� 49.6.� Post-bye, the Steelers have allowed 57/119; that (8) game percentage is 47.9, slightly better than their season mark but, projected year-long, still in at 31 overall.��

Tennessee came in with a 40% success rate for 3^rd down conversions.� Against the Steelers, they were 12/19; if the Steelers were even mediocre on 3^rd down, 8/19 would have been more like it.

On the game, the Titans were 40/121 running the ball, factor out (3) McNair kneel-downs at the end and they were 37/124 or 3.35 YPC.� On third down, against the Steeler dime line, the Titans rushed 10/55 or 5.5 YPC including (1) TD and (6) conversions.� Eddie George was 5/28 on 3^rd down and 24/51 for the rest of the game.�

Why?� Well, maybe because Casey Hampton is typically in the game on the early downs but rarely in the 3^rd down pack.� The nut-cutting play in this game came early in the 2^nd quarter when, facing 3^rd and 10 from their own 9, the Titans sent George up the gut for (11) and a 1^st down.� That play initiated their 91-yard TD drive; that drive was completed when, on a 3^rd and goal, the Titans sent George up the gut for a 4-yard TD.� Again, Hampton was not in the game; rather, the Steelers had 6DB on to defend (14) yards (4 on the field and a 10-yard EZ). Absolute idiocy.

The dime blows (and not in a good way) against the run and apparently is less effective against the pass than is the Steeler base.� On the game, McNair was 18/33 for 257 or 7.8YPA.� On third down, McNair was 7/9 for 113 or 12.55 YPA; on other downs he was 11/24 for 144 or 6.0 YPA.� That�s about 46% completion on 1^st and 2^nd vs. 77% on 3^rd.� Worse, the big pass for 55 over Scott came on 3^rd down too.�

Derrick Mason is the #1 WR in Tennessee.� Explain then why Mason was singled up on Flowers, Gildon and Porter on successive receptions in the 2^nd quarter?� I would think that, if you have (6) DB on the field, you could get the match-ups you wanted, not those favoring the offense.

In his previous (2) games, Steve McNair had thrown for 191 yards net; yesterday, he had 257.� As mentioned previously, the Saints held Vick to about half the total he put up in Pittsburgh.

�Todd Petersen missed (2) FG, of 31 and 37 yards, yesterday.� That puts him at 9/14 on the season from 40 yards in.� Reportedly, Coach Cowher has seen enough (finally) though it is worth noting that, if Pete had made those kicks, his 11/14 would have been no better than Kris Brown�s 22/27 2001 mark in-close.� Pete�s problems have been a year-long deal; it was entirely predictable that he wouldn�t improve as the weather worsened.

The Steelers have won when they�ve been even or better in takeaways; tie-day, they were just (-1); (-2) or worse, they lose, just like any other team.

Next Opponent:

Cincinnati had just 23:38 TOP against the Browns.

Rookie RB William Green, starting for Cleveland in place of Jamal White, rushed 25 times for 96 yards; previously, Green had been averaging less than 3.0YPC.

Erstwhile starting WR Peter Warrick and Michael Westbrook combined for (2) catches for (35) yards.� However, Chad Johnson had (4) for (103) and TJ Houshmandzedah had (3) for (59).� Johnson caught a 72 TD pass from Kitna at 14:13 in the 1^st quarter; the Bengals had just 176 passing in the next 59:12.� This parallels the Steelers� non-performance in Nashville where, after a 72-yard hook-up, T-Max to Ward at 14:45 in the 1^st, Pittsburgh threw for all of 185 in the next 59:44.

The Bengals are 1-9, the Steelers 5-4-1.� It is mathematically possible that the Steelers will finish behind Cincinnati; it is mathematically possible that the B&G will end at 11-4-1.� Which do you think is more likely?

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