State of the
Steelers:
The time is now, the Steelers have (3) games remaining; should they win all (3), they will enter the playoffs on something of a roll; should they win all (3), they, more than likely, will have a 1st round bye and, conceivably, could have home field advantage throughout; should they win all (3), they will have redefined themselves as contenders, so burying their prior identity as poseur or ass clown, that, far too often, has been a more apt description this season.�
On the flip side, (1) more loss, say in Tampa next week, and they�ll limp in at best 9-6-1, pretty close to 50/50 in the second half; this describes a team that is first round fodder.� Lose (2), either this next or in the finale with the Poe-birds and the playoffs are, by no means assured.�� This then, is the state of the Steelers; they are only a 6-game roll from being crowned champion of the world; alternatively, they are 60-minutes-this-Sunday from being all but done.
In the aftermath of the Houston disaster, it may be absurd to associate �champion� and this edition of the Steelers.� Certainly last summer, when this team was anointed as the AFC SB rep, the Houston game was securely in the win column.� That was then but this isn�t; now, the Steelers� collective psyche must be teetering on the brink; between now and Sunday, they may either collapse into despair or collect themselves and play, as from here on in, in a state of cold, focused rage.�
Those who live in the past essentially perish but those who forget their history repeat that endlessly, as if on a treadmill in a room paneled in mirrors or, as is said more commonly, on the road to oblivion.�� Better to examine the record, take what you will and move on.� To that end, consider this interpretation:�
- In the last loss, the obvious cause was the Steelers (5) turnovers.� You can win turning it over (5) times but, to do so, you�d better have at least (4) takeaways.� (-2) is death at 92% while (-1) is not statistically significant.
- Coach Capers turtled his O-side exactly for this reason; the PS needed some takeaways to get back in the game but, obviously, it is nearly impossible to get those when your opponent goes 3 and out in repetitive fashion.� It could be said that the Steelers� D-side dominance was due mainly to this Texan mode but I don�t think that is so. Carr was sacked (4) times while getting (10) passes off; this is an exceptional 28.6% sack rate.� It is far more likely that the Steelers� would have gotten back in the game via a Front 7 trifecta (sack, strip, score) than that Houston would have gotten a fluke TD.
- If your D-side can�t get a takeaway, then someone in some other unit had better make a play.� On possession 11, when the Steelers� had the ball at H-25, Spike dropped a certain TD; had he held on, the Steelers would closed to 13-14, though then down (-3) in the takeaway department.� The Steelers stalled on possession 12 but got new life on Gaffney�s PR blunder.� However, (2) holding penalties sealed that deal, one occurred during AZ�s run to H-1.� Presuming that hold isn�t called, the Steelers are, likely, up 20-14 though, at this imaginary point, they are still (-2) in the takeaway category.
Well sure, cornflakes could turn to gold chips but they probably won�t.� Still, the Steelers final (2) turnovers obscured the fact that, at the 56-minute mark or so, they had been just two plays away from the lead.� That so, even Randle-El�s punt fumble simply would have cut their margin to (3).� After that, well, probably we�d have seen the Texan D pawing ineffectually at a drawn-down Steelers� O-side, like a terrier attacking a terrapin.� We would not have seen Aaron Glenn jump yet another hot read and, probably then, we�d all be grousing now about yet another unconvincing Steeler victory.
It is what it is; T-Max had the arithmetic right when he said that his (3) TO were the difference between 6-24 and 6-3.� 6-3 isn�t pretty but it is a win.� It is worth noting though that while Maddox was wretched on the opening possessions and not better than shaky thereafter, the Steelers still had victory in their grasp, per the items above.� Whatever else you might say of Maddox, he is persistent; the Steeler O-side did keep coming.� That fact, combined with the cap math of 2003, is a compelling argument for Tommy to stay at QB, for good or ill, from here to the close.� The bottom line is this: Maddox may not be the future at the position but Kordell definitely is not.
Though in defeat, Maddox rose to the occasion.� When he cited his (3) plays as the root of Sunday�s evil, he took the weight from his teammates for:
- Two additional turnovers.
- Four procedural calls.
- Six sacks.
- Ten dropped passes.
We are talking 25 plays here, far too many blows to absorb.� Maddox made himself a scapegoat; his teammates, including Kordell, quickly absolved him; however, the economy of considering just (3) plays as the difference vs. (6), as was proposed by Coach Cowher or (25), which is closer to the mark, is important.� The Steelers have just so many days to heal, to get ready and then to make their remaining opponents pay heavily for their own preceding sin.�� In fact, the Steelers have many deficiencies but are at the point in the season where they�ve just got to ride with what they�ve got.� School�s out, the time for teaching is done.� It�s winning time now and in the parity-bound NFL that seems to be more about commitment or belief than anything else.
The offense has found their leaders through, variously, Gandy playing hurt over the years or Ward�s consuming excellence and hard-nosed style or the reciprocating and generous support Stewart and Maddox have shown one another.� The defense is a different case; commencing with the opening debacles and following through the weeks where the dime continuously failed on third down and generally failed to put down beaten opponents, the D-side has floundered.� Finally, after watching Eddie George waltz in from the S-4 against the dime line, Coaches Lewis and Cowher added a nickel.� That�s to their credit, though playing Mike Jones in that pack against the Bengals, a couple days after picking him off the scrap heap, is not.� Fortunately, that�s over and increasingly, Bell and Hampton now factor; consequently, the Steelers have limited their past (2) opponents to a 17.4% conversion rate on 3rd down.� Sure, we�re talking Jags and Texans but 17 is below either team�s season mark.� That�s all good though it does remain unclear that the Steelers can stop any substantial attack.
What does seem clear is the that D-side is on their own; leaving the schism that Flowers alluded too a week ago, consider the simple truth that, in Game 9 against the Falcons, Coach Cowher effectively broke faith with this side.� That occurred in his too well-reported OT facedown with Coach Reeves when CC, rather than leaving it to the defense to rise up and stop Vick again, played to tie.� Now, as Steeler-Desi elucidated a bit ago, that could be catastrophic within the division; however, in the bigger picture pertaining to 1st round byes, it wasn�t a poor notion.� The Steelers are at a head-to-head disadvantage with three teams, NE, Oakland and Tennessee.� Of those, two have (5) losses; presuming both teams drop another, the Steelers could sneak in by that narrow tying margin.�
At that moment though, the message CC sent to Porter, Bell and the rest was, in effect, �You�re just not good enough,� the same despairing message delivered to the O-side, whenever turtle mode is installed.� The pure truth is this: after getting savagely beaten in the opening two, this team needed a convincing win over a quality opponent.� Turtle-style against Indy didn�t get it, turtle-style against the Falcons didn�t get it either.� At this point, flogging the Panthers, Bucs and Ravens, successively and without mercy, is the surest course to success in post-season, both with respect to the arithmetic thereof and the psychology therein.
For sure, the post-Texan atmosphere was gloomy here but, conceivably, the storyline may be extended to include some resurrection where the Steelers rise from those ashes to fly straight over Phoenix, site of their last SB appearance, to land in San Diego.� To this point, attitude has been absent in turtle-style but certainly, now is the time.��
In the next (3) weeks, the Steelers will face (3) teams with bottom quartile offenses; (2) of those have top 10 defenses though Baltimore isn�t in that group.� Last week, they moved on a top 10 D-side and dominated a bottom quartile offense.� Three more times and they�re golden for the post-season.
Let it rock, or to paraphrase the great American poet, John Lee Hooker:
Let them boyz boogie-woogie
It�s in �em and it�s got to come out.