State of the Steelers

This will be the most significant off-season for the Steelers in years, for obvious reasons. Cowher leaving after 15 seasons is surreal. It�s hard to even imagine this team without him at this point. For better or for worse, he has been the face of this franchise throughout his tenure. This article, though, isn�t about assessing the coaching situation. There are too many different possibilities there, and it�s just best to wait and see. This article will deal strictly with the players and what roster moves seem likely at this point in time, as well as what the future make-up of the team will be.

It figures Cowher would retire when, for the first time as head coach, the Steelers were solid at the QB position. Roethlisberger�s rookie deal takes him through 2009 (next three seasons). The Steelers will most likely not address his contract until after the 08 season. Behind him sits Batch, who the Steelers locked up just last year. They will have him on board for at least two more seasons. The third spot is currently taken up by St. Pierre, who is also a free agent. If the team chooses to carry three quarterbacks next year, he has a good chance of returning.

I am in the minority, but I feel Roethlisberger made some strides this season. He looked like he was back to normal in the San Diego game to me, although it wasn�t any great performance. Besides the Oakland debacle following concussion, he played fairly well from that point on. I thought he showed an improved ability to read coverages, and looked very good in the no-huddle. He made strides as a passer as he was given more control of the offense, and that will carry over to next year. I�m sure he learned a lot of hard lessons, as well.

The numbers do show this improvement. When he back to form and healthy, Roethlisberger did play well. Against Oakland, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville, Roethlisberger had a QB rating of 46.8. He threw 9 of his 23 INT�s, compared to just 1 TD. In those other games, he had a QB rating of 83.9, but more importantly, a record of 7-4 (counts Atlanta game he didn�t finish). When healthy, Roethlisberger did not play poorly this season. He still had some ups and downs, but nothing that would be beyond normal. The Ravens made him look bad, and his San Diego performance was underwhelming. Throughout the rest of the season, he played solid. Given a calm off-season to work with his young receivers, Roethlisberger will be a far superior player.

Willie Parker made strides this past season, and made the Steelers look very smart for signing him on the cheap this past off-season. Parker will be a Steeler for the next three seasons at a minimum. If there is a problem, it�s that there is nothing behind him. Davenport becomes a FA this off-season. Haynes is signed for one more season, as is Kreider. Neither is likely to see an extension this year, especially Haynes who has been injury prone so far.

I don�t expect much change here. Haynes will return as a third down back, and I expect they will keep Davenport on as the back-up. He has shown the ability to contribute on special teams, and is an effective enough back-up. The team will probably add a RB in the draft somewhere, as they usually do. I don�t expect it will be on day-1, though.

Hines Ward is locked up for the next three seasons still, obviously. The unpopular Cedric Wilson is signed for two more, and will be making about 2.5 mil. Holmes is a Steeler until 2010, and Willie Reid through 08. Nate Washington is an excluse rights free agent, and is an almost certainty to return. Just to note, he surpassed the production of both Cedric Wilson and Antwaan Randle El while playing as the third receiver.

It will be interesting to see what happens this off-season. Wilson could be gone. It would be fairly cheap for the Steelers, and account for a cap hit of 1 mil. The Steelers will be close to the cap, and his production could easily be replaced. Holmes will most likely start next year, and Washington has proven a capable third player. Reid is still on the bench. The only thing that could save Wilson is the fact that it would leave the Steelers with three very young receivers.

I can�t see the Steelers making any investment at this position in the off-season. Some people have complained about a lack of size. Others have even convinced themselves that the team needs to waste a first round pick on the spot if certain players slip. I could see the Steelers making a day-2 grab at someone, but I doubt even that. The team already has 6 receivers on the roster, counting Morey. Few teams dress that many, so one of them will go. The investment of a third rounder probably protects Reid, and Morrey can cling to his special teams captain role. Wilson is gone, and there�s no room for another receiver. Why waste the draft pick?

Heath Miller is a Steeler until after 2009. Tuman through 08. Tuman has a cap hit between 1.5 to 1.7 mil over the next two seasons. Cutting him would result in a cap hit of .6 mil. However, the team is unlikely to cut him outright, unless they are eying a particular free agent. Most likely the team brings in some young competition, and lets them compete. Tuman would be a late cut, if at all. My dream scenario is the team gets rid of Tuman, and replaces him with someone who is:

1. A superior receiving threat

2. A bettter blocker

Solid FA�s could be brought in to replace him at roughly the same cost, while making the offense more versatile. Steelers two TE set offers no more of a passing threat than its two back set with Kreider, which severely limits this offense. There are some free agents who should get some serious consideration from the Steelers. They have tried to involve Kreider more in the offense lately, with limited results, which shows that they are trying to make this offense less predictable.

This unit could end up seeing the most change of any. We�ll start with Jeff Hartings. He has said that he is leaning towards retirement, and that he treated the game against the Bengals as if it were his last. At this point, it seems probable that he will walk away. The team will save just under 4 mil against the cap if he does. The team carried three centers last year. They apparently like Phillips and Okobi, and I would expect Okobi to start next year. The Steelers could renegotiate his contract, and save 1 mil against the cap, as well. Alan Faneca will be hitting the last year of his contract. Most likely the team extends him this off-season, and saves some cash in the short term. Marvel Smith is signed for two more seasons.

Starks is a RFA this year. I do expect him to return. The team will probably tender him with a third rounder, which costs 1.5 mil. Simmons is entering the last year of his contract. I don�t expect him to be cut, especially if Grimm becomes the coach. Both players, though, should expect open competition for their positions. Willie Colon has impressed at RT, but also could end up moving inside to play guard. The team could end up taking either a tackle or a guard in this draft because of his versatility, and he will likely be competing for a starting spot. I expect at least one of their day-1 (1^st or 2^nd rounder) picks to be spent on the OL. Kemoeatu did get to play some this year. He could end up getting some consideration, as well. I think he�s more likely to be lost in the shuffle, and that if the team were very impressed with him, they wouldn�t have thrown Simmons back in. Overall, this team could have three new starting offensive linemen.

Aaron Smith, like Faneca, is entering the final year of his contract with the Steelers, and his cap hit spikes almost 3 mil. I expect the Steelers will extend him, but they could end up cutting him and swallowing a 1 mil cap hit. I see the first option as the most likely. He�s continued to play at a high level and had one of his better seasons last year. Keisel and Hampton are both signed through 09. I expect all three to return and start next year, although the possibility of Smith being gone is very real.

Kirschke is entering the final year of his deal, and will be set to make 2 mil, as he did last year. Hoke, too, is on the final year of his deal, but costs half as much. Rodney Bailey had just a one year deal. What happens here depends on the coaching staff, I believe. If the Steelers hire from within, I don�t see Kirschke going anywhere. If they go outside the organization, he could be gone. It would save the team roughly 1.5 mil this season. However, I think he returns.

The only situation I see that would lead to the team drafting someone early here would be Smith leaving, and the team needing an immediate replacement. I think he returns, though, and I believe the Steelers will probably invest a day-2 pick on a DE. They lost Orien Harris to the Browns. Shaun Nua remains on the Steelers practice squad for the time being. They apparently like him, so maybe he�ll find his way on to the roster next season.

The Steelers have grossly mismanaged this position, which is the heart and soul of the defense. Clark Haggans and Joey Porter are both going to be 30, and both are entering the final years of their contracts. Porter could end up causing trouble as he is seeking an extension and a big payday. Already making 6 mil next season, it�s likely he�s looking for something in the 8 mil range for his next contract. The Steelers will not give him that. There is a possibility he could end up being cut, although it is slim. A hold-out is the only thing I could see pushing management to take such action. If the team extends either, Haggans is more likely. I doubt they would want do that, though, either.

What do I see happening? The team signed James Harrison through 09. He�s a year or two younger, but he�s far cheaper. Interestingly enough, his contract included a bonus of 1 mil if he ever becomes a starter for the team. I believe that he is an insurance policy. The team is going to have to grab a OLB within the first two rounds of this draft. I think they�ll end up grooming the rookie to take over for Porter. I think they may talk to Haggans, but there is a strong possibility Harrison could start in 08.

Inside, Foote is signed for three more seasons. He�ll be making just over 3 mil for those remaining seasons. Cutting him would save 2 mil. Farrior is signed for two more years. He will be 32 next season. While people are clamoring for a LB to replace Foote, I think it�s more likely that Farrior will be replaced before he is. I expect the team to spend a pick on an ILB during or before R4. The team will take 2-3 LB�s in this draft. It�s a position they�ve neglected for too long. Behind them, Kriedwaldt is a guy who could find himself gone next season without Cowher. Of the dead weight on this team, I�m most confident that the Steelers could rid themselves of him. It wouldn�t save much cash (just .5 mil), but it would make room for a younger LB. Still, the small cap hit, the supposed special teams contributions, and the experience will probably save him.

Polamalu will be entering the final year of his deal, and should be extended this off-season. What�s a reasonable expectation? 4-6 years, 25-35 mil, with 10-15 guaranteed. That�s the price range established by Roy Williams and Ed Reed last year. Ike Taylor�s contract takes him through 2010. McFadden has two more seasons to go. Townsend, just re-signed this off-season, is making under 2 mil. Ryan Clark has three more seasons to go, and will be making about 2 mil, as well. Anthony Smith is signed through 08.

Two veterans are up this year. Tyrone Carter and Mike Logan are both FA�s. Both are making the minimum if they return. I think the team keeps Carter, and lets Logan walk. Anthony Madison will probably be battling for a roster spot. I think the team drafts a CB on day-2, and he�ll most likely end up on the practice squad. Colclough will return and get one more shot to show what he can do. He�s entering the final year of his deal. Chidi is a FA, but with Logan gone, could be able to latch on as a special teamer.

Gardocki is signed for two more seasons, and is making 1.3/1.5 mil in that time frame. His cap hit would be .5 mil. Reed has three more years on his deal, and would be a cap hit of almost 1 mil. He�ll be making about 1.7 mil in all three seasons.

Neither had very good seasons. Reed was surprisingly unreliable, but did not have many opportunities. Gardocki is a guy who only made the roster this year because of what he did in the playoffs. I expect both to have competition in camp, like last year. Reed most likely returns, as the team saves little in terms of cap, and he was fairly reliable in the past. Gardocki is most likely gone, and it�s for the best. His punts played a sizable role in the losses to the Ravens, I believe. He cost the team too much field position. His punts almost never go beyond 40 yards, and often times they are around 30. The Steelers were amongst the worst in the league. Gardocki had saved his job last year with a stellar performance in the playoffs, but his poor season has exhausted his chances with this team.