Week 3 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category	Previous	This week	Year to date	Won this stat but lost the game
Total yards rushing	19-11	9-4-1	28-15-1	Houston Chicago Kansas City St. Louis (GB and Detroit tied)
TOP	19-11	10-4	29-15	Dallas Chicago Tennessee St. Louis
100 yard rushers	11-4	2-2	13-6	Kansas City Chicago (Note: SF had 2 @ +90 yards)
>/= +2 Takeaways	9-1	9-1	18-2	Tennessee
YPA	27-3	10-3-1	37-6-1	Arizona Washington Buffalo (St. Louis and TB, push)

 

Remarks:

 

Tennessee won TOP, was +4 in takeaways and even had a defensive TD.� However, the Titans 4.39 YPA sunk them.

At a paltry 5.55, Arizona had a slight YPA edge but not enough to overcome (9) ST and defensive points against.

At a paltry 5.33, Washington had a slight YPA edge but not enough to overcome their horrendous� �195 in rushing yards.�

Buffalo threw for a decent 6.14 YPA keeping it close in Denver but went down by 5 under the weight of a Bronco return TD.

 

 

Week Four Preview, Browns @ Steelers:

 

Neither YPA nor takeaway indicators favor the Steelers.� Cleveland averages 7.36 YPA on offense while yielding 6.28.� That�s +1.08; in contrast, the Steelers average 6.22 on offense while yielding 6.45.� That�s �0.23; �the Browns +1.31 advantage here is worth a solid 6 points on the scoreboard.

 

Cleveland is just 7^th in the AFC on offense but has averaged 30 PPG.�

Key stat(s):� The Browns have (9) aerial TD and have allowed only (5) sacks.

 

Pittsburgh is 15^th in the AFC on defense yielding an average of 26.5 PPG.�

Key Stat: The Steeler D-side has been on the field about 34:50 per game this season, roughly the inverse of 2001.

 

Cleveland is 12^th in conference on defense.

����������� Key Stat: The Browns have only 11 PD in (3) games.

 

Pittsburgh is 15^th in the AFC in offense and has averaged just 15.5 PPG.

Key Stat:� With their early bye, the Steelers have played (1) game less than nearly every team in the AFC. Despite that, their (10) turnovers lead the conference.

 

Game Points:

 

Tim Lewis vs. the spread:� The Browns can field 4 WR.� They are Kevin Johnson, Quincy Morgan, Andre Davis and Dennis Northcutt.� Davis and Northcutt provide some match-up problems:

 

Davis will be the fastest man on the field.� Taken in the 2^nd round last April, he has begun his career with (12) catches and (4) TD through (3) games.�� Also will return kicks but so far he hasn�t done much in that department.

 

Northcutt was a 2^nd round pick a couple years ago.� He has developed slowly but looks to be coming on now.� Through (3) games has just (4) catches but those were worth 16.8 YPC and (2) TD.� Also has a punt return TD.

 

Steelers running game vs. Browns run defense:� The Browns have given 4.6YPC overall; that just stinks.� However, last week they held the Titans to 86 yards on 34 carries or 2.53 YPC; that�s damn good.� Still, the Steelers have got to run the ball if only to keep their defense off the field.�

 

Judgment:

 

Tough call; for the Steelers this is just about a must-win game; only 5/59 teams have made the playoffs after opening 0-3.� Coach Cowher made his bones as a motivator; fine, but facing playoff death should be motivation enough for his team.� X�s and O�s are needed just now but there is nothing in the pronouncements coming out of Steelers HQ to convince me that the B&G are as yet scheme-worthy for the all-but-certain spread to come.�

 

The Steelers should be able to run the ball; if they do and if they hold on for say, 35 minutes TOP, they should win.� The Browns run-D showed growth last week but that is insufficient to presume they can stop the Steeler RB.� However, the Steelers can scheme, or execute, to stop themselves, as they have done for two games now.�

 

The Brown passing game is more troubling.� Leaving the 30 PPG with (9) passing TD, consider the (5) sacks Cleveland has allowed.� That, with their relatively low YPC, suggests a quick pass attack out a (4) WR set.� This will give the B&G problems.� It�ll be all about TOP Sunday and, well, turnovers figure there.

�

For the Browns, this game is a chance to deal an early knockout to their primary opposition.� I think they�ll be ready to play.� The Steelers are giving 6 � Sunday; that�s my birthday and I am accepting all gifts.� I�ll take the points and hope that the Steelers win but don�t cover, certainly a win/win situation here.� More likely, the Steelers won�t win and, at 0-3, the coverage we see will be more of the post-game CYA variety.