Mock Draft v 1.

February 18, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Mock Draft, pre-Combine and pre-free agency:

Mock Draft, pre-Combine and pre-free agency, v1:

Quite obviously, things will change between now and late April when the draft takes place.� At the Indy Combine, high profile prospects will be revealed as too small or too slow while small school types or big school backups will make some nice money on the track or in the rep room.� Then too, teams will use FA to fill some holes; still:

First Round:

Slot	Team	Needs	Player	Remarks
1	Bengals	DT, DE, CB, QB, OC	Terrell Suggs, DE/OLB	If the Bengals go QB first, Marvin Lewis faces a player revolt.� Kennedy is a strong possibility but the drop-off at DE is greater than at DT.
2	Lions	DE, CB, MLB WR, OG	Charles Rogers, WR	Local player and may be the BPA overall.
3	Panthers (From Texans)	CB QB, WR, OT,	Carson Palmer, QB	IMO, there is a considerable drop from Palmer to Leftwich.� Houston is in the drivers seat on any deal involving QB; here, the Texans remain in the top 10 and pick up a mid-2^nd.
4	Bears	DT, DE QB	Jimmy Kennedy, DT	Their defense is predicated on the 2000 Raven mode of dual DT to keep Urlacher clean; both Washington and Traylor are getting old and so the Bears, aced on Palmer, go BPA.
5	Cowboys	CB, DE RB, QB, OT,	Terrence Newman, CB	There is no 5-year plan in Dallas; Cowboys will pay to retain their OT and then draft the CB most likely to be a lockdown type.� With Ross and Newman, Dallas will have an excellent, if smallish, CB tandem.
6	Cardinals	DE, CB, S, QB, WR	Andre Johnson, WR	David Boston is a question mark now; Johnson has big play ability.
7	Vikings	Defense	Dewayne Robertson, DT	Run-stuffer to pair with Hovan.
8	Jaguars	DE, ILB, WR	Byron Leftwich, QB	DE is a need for every team from 5 thru 8 but no DE quite warrants those slots.� Jaxville figures to be a bad team past Mark Brunell�s NFL shelf life; that so, the new regime moves to secure their franchise QB.�
9	Texans (From Panthers)	S, OLB RB, OT, WR	Jordan Gross, OT	Texans get their man.
10	Seahawks	DE, DT, ILB	Jonathan Sullivan, DT	Has enormous upside.
11	Ravens	CB, DE WR, OT, QB	Marcus Trufant, CB	Baltimore has drafted CB in this area previously to include Starks and McAlister.� Figure Baxter to move to safety or figure McAlister to hit the road.
12	Rams	OT, OG	Kwame Harris, OT	Absolute need but not a real reach.
13	Redskins	DE, DT, OG, WR	William Joseph, DT	Could be DE Haynes instead
14	Patriots (From Buffalo)	DT, CB, LB RB, WR	Kevin Williams, DT	Good interior pass rusher although if Sullivan is on the board he may be more highly valued for his run stopping ability.� Pats go D-side first to get pre-empt the Chargers and Saints.
15	Chargers	DB, DT WR, OT	Andre Woolfolk, CB	Speed at DB is said to be priority #1 here; Ryan McNeil to move to FS with Beckett replacing Rodney Harrison at SS.��
16	Chiefs	DE, CB, WR	Michael Haynes, DE	Pass rusher at DE is said to be the highest priority in Barbeque City.
17	Saints	ILB, CB, S TE	Jason Whitten, TE	Best at a position of need.� Note: Saints might take Teyo Johnson here, IMO.
18	Saints (From Miami)		EJ Henderson, ILB	BAP.
19	Patriots		Larry Johnson, RB	Pass catching ability makes this player an ideal fit for the NE offense.�
20	Broncos	DE, QB, OT	Jerome McDougle, DE	Speed rusher to go with their beefy D-line, replaces the entirely replaceable Kavika Pittman.
21	Browns	DB O-line	Eric Steinbach, OG/OT	A godsend.
22	Jets	DT, LB, FB	Boss Bailey, OLB	Jets are getting old at LB; Bailey has the athleticism to stay on in package situations.
23	Falcons	CB, DT WR	Kelly Washington, WR	Great size and speed; injuries and temperament are at issue but this player has game breaking ability.
24	Colts	DT, DB, ILB	Kenny Patterson, DT	Speed DT in the Dungy-mode with some size.� Colts could go DB here but Dungy built the Buc defense front to back and, probably, will repeat that here.
25	Giants	DE, ILB, S, WR	Cory Redding, DE	Kenny Holmes has been a cap-eating bust.
26	49ers	DT, LDE, S	Troy Polamula, SS	SF is old and slow at safety, Polamula figures to make more plays than any of the D-lineman remaining on the board.
27	Bears (From Pittsburgh)		Kyle Boller, QB	Steelers move down to #35 and pick up the Bears 4^th and 5^th round picks, # 100 and #134 overall.� IMO, there is a drop-off from Boller to Simms and Ragone, if not Grossman.� Bears jump over the Bengals to secure the best QB remaining on the board; Steelers gain the opportunity to add multiple speed prospects on the D-side.
28	Titans	WR, RB	Taylor Jacobs, WR	BPA at a position of need.
29	Packers	ILB, DT, QB	Rex Grossman, QB	Widely rumored to be the Pack�s pick to replace Favre.
30	Eagles	ILB, RB, WR	Lee Suggs, RB	Had sufficient resolve to come back from ACL.
31	Raiders	DE, DT, LB, OC	George Foster, OT	Gets some time to learn behind Kennedy and Sims, two OT exposed by the Bucs in the last SB.�
32	Raiders (From Tampa)		Ty Warren, DT	A stuffer to replace Sam Adams.� Coleman moves out of the DT rotation to replace Armstrong at DE.

(17) D-side players to include four DE, seven DT, one ILB, one OLB, three CB and one safety.

(15) O-side players to include four QB, two RB, four WR, one TE, three OT and one OG.

Second round:

In the needs column, boldface is to indicate those addressed in the first round.

Slot	Team	Needs	Player	Remarks
33	Bengals	DT, DE, CB, QB, OC	Rien Long, DT	High motor Outland winner, quick and strong but plays high.�
34	Lions	DE, DB, MLB WR, OG	Nick Eason DE	Porcher isn�t getting any younger; Lions take a power side DE to go with Kalimba Edwards
35	Steelers (From Bears)	DB, DL TE	Sammy Davis, CB 5^th DB worthy?� Well, if <4.45 yes; if not, not.	Steeler FO selects a big school producer ahead of such small school, high upside players as Rashon Mathis and Drayton Florence.� They select Davis over Dennis Weathersby because Davis will tackle and Weathersby will not.� Something of an RFR pick but with Scott or DW moving over to FS, the Steelers can improve at (2) positions.
36	Texans	S, OLB RB, OT, WR	Bryant Johnson, WR	Good value here.
37	Cardinals	DE, CB, S, QB, WR	Chris Kelsay, DE	High try guy.
38	Cowboys	CB, DE RB, QB, OT	Chris Brown, RB	Power RB to pair with Hambrick.
39	Jaguars	DE, ILB, WR	Calvin Pace, DE	Need to replace Tony Brackens.
40	Vikings	Defense	Rashon Mathis, FS	Previously, the Vikes have taken D-side athletes like Orlando Thomas and Raonall Smith in this area.
41	Ravens	CB, DE WR, OT, QB	Tony Pashos, OT	Power side OT to play opposite Jon Ogden.
42	Seahawks	DE, DT, ILB	Terry Pierce, ILB	Active MLB.
43	Rams	OT, OG	Torrin Tucker, OG	O-line needs a lot of help.
44	Redskins	DE, DT, OG, WR	Vince Manuwai, OG	Minor reach at need position.
45	Texans (From Carolina)	S, OLB RB, OT, WR	Musa Smith, RB	RB with franchise ability but injury history to form a tandem with plowback Jonathan Wells.
46	Chargers	DB, DT WR, OT	Brandon Lloyd, WR	Better than DT and OT remaining.
47	Chiefs	DE, CB, WR	Dennis Weathersby, CB	Most polished big CB remaining on the board.
48	Bills	DT, OLB, S	Ken Hamlin, FS	Best big school safety remaining, should start immediately.
49	Dolphins	OLB LOT, WR	Brett Williams, LOT	Polished at the position and the Fins need a LOT desperately.
50	Patriots	DT, CB, LB RB, WR	Drayton Florence, CB	Has a year to learn behind OTIS
51	Broncos	DE, QB, OT	Jon Stinchcomb, OT	Too high but seems like their kind of OT.
52	Browns	DB O-line	Jeff Faines, OC	Godsend II.
53	Jets	DT, LB, FB	Jarrett Johnson, DT	High motor guy but something of a reach here.� Need pick.
54	Saints	ILB, CB, S TE	Julian Battle, S	Saints have many CB on the roster but need speed in the middle of the field.
55	Falcons	CB, DT WR	Anquan Bolden, WR	Another big WR, not as gifted as Washington but solid; will give Vick and the Falcons 4-wide capability.
56	Giants	DE, ILB, S, WR	Mike Doss, SS	Would allow Shaun Williams to move back to FS.
57	49ers	DT, LDE, S	Kevin Garrett, CB	SF 3^rd down defense was at the bottom last year; Garrett figures to be an improvement at NCB with Mike Rumph moving to FS, with Polamula could form a safety combo superior to Bronson and Parrish.
58	Colts	DT, DB, ILB	Nick Barnett, SS	Could develop as an ideal Cover 2 SS with the speed of a WR and size of a LB.
59	Steelers	DB, DL TE, RB	Teyo Johnson, TE/WR	Provides overmatch capabilities in passing game, run blocking is a question mark.
60	Titans	WR, RB	Dallas Clark, TE	Wychek is getting older and Kinney hasn�t really developed.�
61	Eagles	ILB, RB, WR	Gerald Hayes, ILB	Would be fortunate to get this player at this spot; will end the Kirkland/Gardner rotation.
62	Packers	ILB, DT, QB	Jeremy Bridges, OT	Would have preferred a D-side Front 7 player but settle for OT.��
63	Raiders	DE, DT, LB, OC	Al Johnson, OC	Groom to replace Robbins.
64	Bucs	Speed WR, O-line	Talman Gardner, WR	4.3 40, or so it is said. �Buc WR corps needs speed.

(16) D-side players to include three DE, two DT, two ILB, no OLB, four CB and five safeties.

(16) O-side players to include no QB, two RB, four WR, two TE, four OT, two OG and two OC.

Third Round:

65. Bengals:� �� Chris Simms, QB.

66. Lions:� �� Eugene Wilson, CB.

67. Texans:�� Todd Johnson, FS.

68. Bears:�� Onterrio Smith, RB

69. Cowboys:�� Dewayne White, DE.

70. Cardinals:�� La Marcus McDonald, LB.

71.� Vikings:�� Tyler Brayton, DE.

72.� Jaguars:�� Sam Aiken, WR.

�Seahawks:�� Kenny King, DE.
�Rams:�� Shurron Pierson, OLB.
�Redskins:�� Justin Fargas, RB.
�Panthers:�� Ben Johnson, OT.
�Ravens:�� Doug Gabriel, WR.
�Saints:�� Darnell Docket, DT
�Bills:�� Rashad Moore, DT.
�Chargers:�� Steve Sciullo, OT.
�Patriots:�� Chris Clemons, OLB.

�Broncos:�� Dave Ragone, QB.
�Texans:�� Derrick Dockery, OG
�Browns:�� Terrence Holt, S.
�Jets:� �� Ovie Mughelli, FB.
�Saints:�� Montae Holland, OG.
�Dolphins:�� Tyrone Calico, WR.
�Texans:�� Antwan Peek, OLB.��
�49ers:�� Antonio Garay, DE
�Colts:�� Ivan Taylor, CB.
�Giants:�� Rod Babers, CB
�Steelers:�� Cecil Sapp, RB is an inside runner to pair with Zereoue.
�Titans:�� Willis McGahee, RB will red-shirt for a year behind Eddie George.
�Packers:�� Clifton Smith, ILB.
�Eagles:�� Justin Gage, WR.
�Raiders:�� Aaron Hunt, DE
�Bucs:�� Artose Pinner, RB.

Steeler-centric wrap-up:

�

The Steelers project to enter 2003 with new starters at LOT, TE and SS.� Of those, it is expected that the LOT position will be filled from within, with some combination of Smith, Ross and Nkwenti manning the dual OT spots.� A similar case applies to SS where Logan and Hope project to battle it out for the starting spot.� However, the need remains for an additional Cover 3 D-back whether at FS or CB; the need remains for a difference maker on the O-side too (whether at TE or RB) but given the dearth of TE here, that position will probably get the emphasis.� Therefore, the most pressing needs are at D-back and TE.� Additionally, the team has replacement issues circa 2004 at RDE and RB and, as always, ST coverage is at issue.��

It should be noted that the preceding projection was intended to predict the Steeler FO�s method and opportunities.� The trade proposed mimics that in 2001 when the Steelers received a 4^th and 6^th to move down three spots in the 1^st round; here they get a 5^th, rather than a 6^th, as a reward for moving eight places rather than three.� The Steeler method suggests big school players shall be drafted early; their selection of Chris Hope in 2003suggests this man as Flower�s replacement at SS.� Personally, I like the haul projected to the Dungy-led Colts bringing Kenny Patterson, Nick Barnett and future value CB Ivan Taylor (or his college teammate Charles Tillman).� However, the Steeler FO seems to have a different philosophy; that, together with some points raised in the Overviews, yields these �rules of projection�:

� Stewart, Breuner and the Bus are eliminated for cap purposes; Stewart for the immediate opportunity to get into the 2003 FA market while the antique B-brothers are eliminated now so to clear 2004 space to deal with Bell and Burress.

� The FO can expect, at most, two rookies to move in as starters in 2003; those players are the prospects selected in the top 60.� The primary positions of need are D-back and TE.� The D-back may be either a Cover 3 type or TE-covering SS; however, the FO�s preceding Hope-pick prioritizes the former.� Regardless, the TE should be an offensive weapon as, presumably, Tuman will be retained to fulfill the tackle-eligible function.

� The primary role spots are: power RB and dime DE and D-backs for the packages.

� While the FO�s method emphasizing college productivity is accepted for the early rounds, this is overturned on the second day.� In this projection, measurables increasingly dominate; the argument for this was given previously, in the �Brief History��

� Second day prospects shall be selected to contribute on ST and to challenge bottom-feeders on the existing roster especially at QB, D-back, OLB and D-line.

Day One:

2.35:� The 3-4 DE are off the board, the DB available all are reaches and therefore the Steelers move down.� Presuming he runs in the 4.45 range, Sammy Davis is, IMO, the best of the big school, big CB.� In this projection, Davis moves in as a starter at CB and either Scott or DW move to FS.� At minimum, the Steelers get better in the latter spot; possibly, they will improve at two positions.

2.59:� Teyo Johnson may not be on the board here in April but he currently does project as a low-2^nd type.� If he were available, I�d take him over a more conventional TE such as Dallas Clark.� Following the 2004 season, the PS face extending both Bell and Burress.� Long term, Johnson is hedge against losing Spike; in the shorter run, the Steeler pass offense figures to improve dramatically.

3.92:� McGahee is a future value type; if both the Bus and Fu were to be retained thru 2003, McGahee would be ideal as neither incumbent figures to be here in 2004.� Here, the Bus is considered gone and Fu unreliable; that so, Cecil Sapp might bring more immediate (Bam Morris-like) advantages.

Day Two, early:� the rule is, a prospect must be taken within +/-(10) spots of that shown in the Huddle Report projections.� With (4) picks in the next two rounds, the opportunity is to upgrade ST and packages.

4^th round, 100 overall (from Bears):� Dime DE Alonzo Jackson, 6-4, 256#, 4.7 40, Florida State.� �

Dime DE remaining thru 97 in this projection include Andrew Williams, Alonzo Jackson, Nick Burley, Tully Banta-Cain and Jamal Green.�

4^th round, 125 overall:� FS/CB Charles Tillman, 6-1, 194#, <4.5 40, La.-Lafayette.�

Highly productive, good measurables, high character player who should help immediately on ST.

5^th round, 134 overall (from Bears):� DE Osi Umenyiora, 6-3, 280#, 4.78 40, Troy State.

Dime DE or DT immediately, could be 4-3 LDE or bulk up to 3-4 RDE in the Seals-mode.

5^th round, 158 overall:� QB Brian St. Pierre, Boston College.

�

Best of the 3^rd tier.

�

Day Two, late:� Best of the rest?

6^th round, 190 overall:

Antonio Garay is a DT who projects as a 3-4 DE.� Garay has first round measurables but injuries limited his career at Boston College to just (14) games.��

7^th round, 224 overall:� DB Jesse Sowells, 6-0, 205#, <4.5 40. Houston.

Appears on few prospect lists at present; if available here, would round out D-back roster and help on ST.

�

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Mock Draft v 1.

February 18, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Terrell Suggs, DE/OLB

Defense

Vince Manuwai, OG

O-line

WR

QB

Talman Gardner, WR

Day Two, late:� Best of the rest?