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Stillers vs. Colts Pregame Analysis (Game #6)

October 20, 2002 by Still Mill

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Stillers vs. Colts Pregame Analysis (Game #6, vs. Indy)

The 2-3 Stillers face the 4-1 Colts on MNF in a battle that should be pretty eventful for the primetime audience.The Colts sit atop of the AFC South, while the Stillers are tied for first in the North.With a win, the Stillers can finally reach .500 and roll into what appears to be a fairly flabby part of their schedule.

 * When the Colts have the ball, they�ll bring one of the more frightening offenses in the NFL.Manning hasn't been great this season, but has been pretty good.9 TDs is a bit low for a man of his stature, and 5 INTs aren't too good.Still, he runs an offense that produces an average of 244 yards/game, which ain't shabby.Manning, in this writer's opinion, is the best QB the Stillers have faced this season, and if Gannon and Brady were able to carve up the Stiller defense with all the ease of taking candy from a baby, I shudder to think what Manning is capable of doing.�� The Colts' O-line is certainly nothing to brag about -- in fact, they are the Colt's weakest link on offense -- but they have protected Manning decently in allowing just 9 sacks so far.What has really bogged down the Colts has been the running game, despite all-world Edge James at RB.The line simply hasn't been too productive, and the Colts rank a mediocre 20th in the league. James has garnered over 400 yards, but in 5 games, that's chickenfeed, and his yards per carry is a mere 3.6.Losing starting linemen McKinney and Moore -- although hardly world beaters -- to free agency has been troubling for the Dolts.Guard Rick DeMulling has been hobbled, and replacement Ryan Diem has failed to seize the day.RT Adam Meadows -- a mediocre 2nd rounder who has never come close to expectations -- is hobbled by a hip.The Stillers should be able to take full advantage of Meadows and Diem, both in the stuffing the run as well as putting heat on the QB.TE has been another problem area for this Indy team.I was always very impressed with TE Ken Dilger, a solid blocker who quietly gave Manning a superb passing target.Dilger (who would have looked tremendous wearing a Stiller uni) has not been adequately replaced at all this season, as the Colts have used Marcus Pollard with very little productivity.The Colts aren't overly deep at WR, but they posses enough flammability in their starting lineup to cause concern to any fire marshal or fire inspector.All-World Marv Harrison mans the one starting spot, and he's off to yet another sterling season with 44 grabs and 3 TDs.Oddly enough, as much sleep as I'm losing just thinking of Harrison dashing untouched thru our porous secondary, the man opposite him is doing an equal job of robbing me of sleep.That would, of course, be Stiller-killer Quadry Ismail, who has personally scorched and abused the Stillers on numerous occasions.FANTASY ALERT -- if your FFL team is hampered by low productivity or injury at WR, consider starting Ismail versus the Stillers.Ismail has 3 TDs this season, and combined with Manning's outstanding play fakes (perhaps the best in the NFL), the Colts are likely to take some downfield stabs with their "other" receiver, aka The Missile.Reggie Wayne will see a good bit of PT, and he's a decent possession-type receiver.

Defensively, the Stillers will gladly welcome the return of ILB Kendrell Bell.Of course, despite the fact that a hobbled Bell is 3 times better than Foote or John Feel-all-a, I have some concerns with Bell's return.What kind of game-shape will Bell be in?What mobility and quickness will he have, especially if tasked to cover the likes of Edge James in the passing game?And, most critically, will his appearance cause the rest of the defense to go limp, thinking that, "Well, Kendrell is back, and he can do it all, so I can take it a little easy tonite�."?The starting CBs, Scott and DW, will have their hands full, and then some.Each has received a fair amount of abuse thus far, and each knows that a prime-time audience will be watching them against a very dangerous passing attack.

The key matchup will be Stiller front 7 against the Colt O-line.The Colts would like to get James untracked and chew some clock, knowing that their defense is fairly soft.James hasn't been outstanding yet this season, but that's not to say that he'll be easy to bottle.Additionally, the Stillers front 7 has got to disrupt and harass Manning back in the pocket.If allowed to stand back and peruse the field in a casual and unfettered manner, Manning will slice & dice this defense like a Ginzu gone berserk.Note that I am not talking about "sacks".The concern is harassment, disruption, and some punishing hits on Manning, something that clearly didn't happen to Brady and Gannon as they easily carved up the Stiller defense.

* When the Stillers have the ball, they'll have the luxury of facing one of the softer defenses around.The Colts "D" looks ok on paper, but much of that is misleading.The Colts offense allows the defense to play with a lead a good bit of the time.Furthermore, because the Colts run defense has been so soft, teams have been content to jam the ball down their throat.The front 4 of Scioli, Williams, Cannida, and Bratzke is about as lukewarm and mediocre a crew as you can assemble in the NFL. The leaders are at LB, where Morris and Peterson both are far superior than the Steelers' supposed "pro bowl" LB.Although the Colts did a solid job of limiting J. Lewis last week versus Balt, this front 7 is ripe for the mauling by a smashmouth running team.The secondary is also fairly average, although they've been able to play a good deal with the luxury of a lead.Maddox gets his third start of the season, and hopefully he'll continue his above-average -- albeit not great -- play.Burress has been hot lately, and when thrown to, often plays at his best on prime-time TV.The key matchup will be the Stiller ground game against the softee Colt defense.Bettis isn't "back", as some proclaim, even after the big production against a Cinci team that rolled over and played dead.Upon review of the game tape, I noticed that Bettis' big yardage came on plays in which he had ample room and no penetration.There were several plays in which the Bungals got some penetration and at least semi-clogged up the running lanes, and on those plays The Tubby Tailback did jack squat.Nevertheless, Bettis, Fu, and Amoz should see some daylight behind the rugged Stiller O-line, because the Indy front 7 has low odds of stopping the run with any consistency.Pounding the ball on the ground will enable the Stillers to own the clock, thereby keeping Manning and his dangerous weapons planted on their own bench.

* Special Teams: The Colts have nothing special on special teams, other than PK Mike VanderJ, who is having a nice season.Troy Walters handles most of the chores on PR and KR, and although he's not done much this season, the guy has absolutely got to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing Peterson's shallow kickoffs and the Stillers' inept, clumsy coverage.El gave the Stillers a big boost with his KR last week, and hopefully he can work more magic on both PR and KR.���

* An "X" Factor?FS Brent Alex has played virtually every snap through 5 games, and -- unbelievably -- has yet to record a single "pass defensed".I hate to ask for too much, but Monday nite might be high time that Brent does something -- anything -- to break up a pass.���

* Synopsis: Cowhead has never lost at home on MNF, and that, triggered with a rabid homefield crowd, could be enough to boost the Stillers.On the other hand, Cowher has rarely had his team handle prosperity with any sort of adequacy.Whipping ass on the hapless Bungals last could give this team a false sense of overconfidence.The major unknown is whether or not Billy Cowshit has gotten his defense into a level of prime readiness, or if the defense will still be flat-footed and befuddled when facing a QB markedly better than a Tim Couch or a John Kitna.I'm not one to expect that the dim-bulbed Cowher has done much to rectify the defensive problems, but spurred on by the home-field crowd, the Stillers will win an exciting, nip-and-tuck game, 31-27.

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