Mock Draft, version 2.1

March 17, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Mock Draft, pre-Combine and pre-free agency:

Mock Draft, version 2:

Quite obviously, things will change between now and late April when the draft takes place; however, with the FA season in full swing, some things are coming into focus.� Several trades are proposed in this version; these will be indicated by (PD), which represents �phantom deal.�� As always, the purpose of this effort is to represent what opportunities may avail to the Steeler FO.� As was true in V1.0, this mock will accept the �big school producer� mode early, as that has been successful in the Colbert Era but will freely diddle that paradigm from the mid-rounds forward as 1) the Steelers have gotten little 2^nd day help in the Colbert Era and 2) as per the Summary section of� �A Brief History�� which was published on-site in late January 2003, considerable upside in measurables should trump miniscule productivity differences when drafting ST players and roster replacements.�

First Round:

Slot	Team	Needs	Player	Remarks
1	Cowboys (PD) from Bengals	DE, CB. RB, QB.	Terrell Suggs, DE	Dallas had no pass rush last year and, IMO, Suggs is far and away the BPA at DE.� Dallas gives a 2003 3^rd and a 2004 conditional to move ahead of in state rival Houston.� As predicted in V 1.0, the Cowboys have indeed retained OT Hotel Adams and, for all we know, will pry Curtis Martin free from the Jets.� What we do know for sure is that there is no tomorrow in Big D, either for Jimmy Jones or his new Head, Bill Parcells.
2	Lions	DE, CB, MLB. WR, OG.	Charles Rogers, WR	Local player and may be the BPA overall.
3	Texans	S, OLB. RB, WR, OT,	Andre Johnson, WR	Houston has picked up a couple vet O-linemen; that fact, along with the youth they laid in last year in that unit, suggests they�ll move on Johnson, a prime time weapon rather than, say, Jordan Gross.
4	Bears	DT, DE, LB QB	Jimmy Kennedy, DT	Their defense is predicated on the 2000 Raven mode of dual DT to keep Urlacher clean; both Washington and Traylor are getting old and so, with Kordell in the corral, the Bears pass on Palmer.
5	Bengals (PD) from Cowboys	CB. QB, WR, interior OL.	Terrence Newman, CB	The Bengals lost Takeo Spikes but signed Kevin Hardy, as well as John Thornton.� They�ve also picked up CB Tory James but James is a #2.� Newman figures as a lock down corner; now, the Bengals project to field a very solid secondary.��
6	Patriots (PD) from Cardinals	DT, DE, CB. RB, WR.	Dewayne Robertson, DT	Having acquired Roosevelt Colvin, the premiere pass rusher available in FA, the Patriots move up to get an impact run-stuffer to pair with Richard Seymour.� The price is: two 1^st round picks (14 and 19 overall).
7	Vikings	OT. Defense.	Kwame Harris, OT	Can play both sides but worked at ROT at Stanford.� The Vikings led the NFL in rushing last season and, with Mount McKinnie and Harris as bookend OT, project to have developed a young, dominant O-line.� �Size first�, and the fact that Mike Tice once coached the Vike OL unit argues for this pick over, say, Trufant.
8	Jaguars	CB, S, ILB. WR	Carson Palmer, QB	Jaxville has said they�ll go BPA and Palmer certainly fits the description.� The Jags have acquired Hugh Douglas, Mike Peterson and Kevin Mitchell to up grade their D-side.� They need a lockdown CB too but Palmer is just too good to pass up.� This sets the stage for Brunell to depart for cap relief, if not in June than in 2004.��
9	Panthers	CB. QB, OT, WR.	Jordan Gross, OT	Panthers get their man.
10	Ravens	DT. WR, OT, QB.	William Joseph, DT	GM Newsome has indicated a preference for defense first.� This man, or Kevin Williams, will fit the Raven 3-4 perfectly.
11	Seahawks	DE, DT, ILB.	Kevin Williams, DT	Good interior pass rusher although Sullivan may be more highly valued for his run stopping ability.
12	Rams	CB, ILB. OT.	Marcus Trufant, CB	St. Louis lost two of their top four CB; Aeneas Williams is returning but at this stage figures as a nickel back and mentor for Trufant and Travis Fisher.
13	Jets (Compensation for the L. Coles deal).	DT, LB. WR, FB	Boss Bailey, OLB	Jets are getting old at LB; Bailey has the athleticism to stay on in package situations.
14	Cardinals (PD) from Miami via New England	DE, CB. QB, WR.	Kyle Boller, QB	Cardinals get a franchise QB to groom as Blake�s replacement, sooner rather than later.� It is rumored that, for many, Boller has surpassed Leftwich at the QB position.
15	Chargers	DB, DT, DE. WR, OT	Jonathan Sullivan, DT	Run stuffer with big upside who should make Wiley and company more effective.
16	Chiefs	DE, CB, WR	Jerome McDougle, DE	Pass rusher at DE is said to be the highest priority in Barbeque City.
17	Saints	ILB, DT, CB, (S). TE	Terry Pierce, ILB	Having picked up Lawyer Milloy from Pats (PD), Saints address another middle of the field position with this swift Big 12 performer.
18	Patriots (PD) from New Orleans for Lawyer Milloy)	DT, DE, CB. RB, WR.	Larry Johnson, RB	Pass catching ability makes this player an ideal fit for the NE offense.�
19	Cardinals (PD) from New England	DE, CB. QB, WR.	Dennis Weathersby, CB	Polished cover CB who timed fast at Indy.� On the downside, is a somewhat soft player.
20	Broncos	DE, CB. (OT), TE.	Chris Kelsay, DE	Speed rusher to go with their beefy D-line, replaces the entirely replaceable Kavika Pittman.
21	Browns	LB, CB. O-line, TE	Eric Steinbach, OG/OT	A godsend.
22	Jets	DT, LB. WR, FB.	Kelly Washington, WR	Great size and speed; injuries and temperament are at issue but this player has game breaking ability.
23	Bills (From Falcons for Peerless Price)	DT, FS.	Michael Haynes, DE	Assuming the Bills sign Sam Adams, DE remains their position of greatest need.� Haynes had a poor Combine but impressed at the Senior Bowl and had a very sound senior season at PSU.
24	Colts	DT, SS, ILB. WR.	Kenny Patterson, DT	Penetrating DT in the Dungy-mode.� Colts could go DB but Dungy built the Tampa Bay defense from front to back and figures to do likewise here.
25	Giants	DE, ILB, SS. WR	Cory Redding, DE	Figures as an upgrade from Kenny Holmes who has been a cap-eating bust.� Redding fits the big school performer mode favored in NY, as in Pittsburgh.
26	49ers	DT, LDE, S. OT	Nick Eason, DT	Something of a reach but the 49ers have just got to toughen up inside.
27	Bears (From Pittsburgh)	DT, DE, LB QB	Bryon Leftwich, QB	Steelers move down to #35 and pick up the Bears 4^th and 5^th round picks, # 100 and #134 overall.� Bears jump over the Bengals to secure the best QB remaining on the board; Steelers gain the opportunity to add multiple speed prospects on the D-side.
28	Titans	WR, RB	Teyo Johnson, TE	Hybrid WR/TE whose size can effectively stretch the field for the Titans.
29	Packers	LB, DE, DT. QB	Rex Grossman, QB	Widely rumored to be the Pack�s pick to replace Favre.
30	Packers (PD) from Philadelphia for KGB.	LB, DE, DT. QB	E.J. Henderson, MLB	GB is cap-strapped but the Eagles have plenty of room and easily outbid the Pack for DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila.� On the plus side, GB gets good value at the spot with Henderson who replaces Hardy Nickerson.
31	Raiders	DE, DT, LB, OC	Wayne Hunter, OT	Moves up on the strength of a monster Combine; raw but has enormous upside and gets a year to learn behind Kennedy and Sims, two OT exposed by the Bucs in the last SB.�
32	Raiders (From Tampa)		Willis McGahee, RB	Future value type pick, should replace Charlie Garner in 2004.

(18) D-side players to include five DE, seven DT, two ILB, one OLB, three CB and zero safeties.

(14) O-side players to include four QB, two RB, three WR, one TE, three OT and one OG.

Second round:

In the needs column, boldface is to indicate those addressed in the first round.

Slot	Team	Needs	Player	Remarks
33	Bengals	DE, CB. QB, WR, OC.	Bryant Johnson, WR	Good value here.
34	Lions	DE, DB, MLB. WR, OG.	Troy Polamalu, SS	Speed, power and athleticism coupled with character and productivity make it impossible to pass on this player.
35	Steelers (PD) From Bears.	DB, DL. TE.	Sammy Davis, CB	Steeler FO selects a big school producer ahead of such small school, high upside players as Rashean Mathis and Drayton Florence.� They pick Davis ahead of Woolfolk because Davis produced and Woolfolk did not.� May seem to be something of an RFR pick but IMO, Davis is the #3 CB in this draft.� With Scott or DW moving over to FS, the Steelers can improve at (2) positions.
36	Texans	S, OLB. RB, OT, WR.	Jason Witten, TE	Not a primary need but too good to pass up.� BPA believers may feel that the Steelers �should have taken� Witten at 35 but so it goes.
37	Cardinals	DE, CB. QB, WR.	Tyler Brayton, DE	Big workouts at Indy and on Pro Day move this player up; could be a value here although the Cards may be better off with a bigger DE.
38	Cowboys	CB, DE. RB, QB.	Lee Suggs, RB	Hard-nosed, high character player who could develop as a franchise RB.
39	Jaguars	CB, S, ILB. WR.	Taylor Jacobs, WR	Jags desperately need a WR opposite Jimmy Smith and Jacobs is a 1^st round value.
40	Vikings	Defense. OT.	Rashean Mathis, FS	Previously, the Vikes have taken D-side athletes like Orlando Thomas and Raonall Smith in this area.� Mathis should have no difficulty moving in front of Jack Brewer
41	Ravens	DT. WR, OT, QB.	George Foster, OT	Brooks and Orlando Brown figure as stopgaps at ROT; Foster has the ability to bookend with Jon Ogden for years to come.
42	Seahawks	DE, DT, ILB.	Dewayne White, DE	Stumpy but productive rusher, kind of like Hugh Douglas.
43	Rams	CB, ILB. OT.	Chaun Thompson, LB	Listed as an OLB but at 6-1, 240# could play inside in the Ram scheme.� Super fast athlete.
44	Redskins	DE, DT.	Ty Warren, DT	Good value at the spot.
45	Carolina	CB. QB, OT, WR	Chris Simms, QB	Bumps Weinke from roster and Fasani to TE.� NYG connection with John Fox.
46	Saints (PD) from Chargers for Kyle Turley.	ILB, DT, CB, (S). TE	Dallas Clark, TE	Chargers get Kyle Turley in exchange for their 2003 2^nd round pick and a conditional pick in 2004.
47	Chiefs	DE, CB, WR	Andre Woolfolk, CB	High upside player who produced little at Oklahoma.� However, does have size, speed, agility and intelligence.
48	Bills	DT, S.	Ken Hamlin, FS	Big school safety who has the size to match with TE, should start immediately over Preston Prioleau.
49	Dolphins	OLB LOT, WR	Jon Stinchcomb, OT	Finesse OT who demonstrated great strength and agility at Combine.
50	Patriots	DT, CB. RB, WR	Drayton Florence, CB	Has a year to learn behind OTIS
51	Broncos	DE, CB. OT, TE.	Brett Williams, OT	Polished at the position, Denver needs an upgrade at LOT.
52	Browns	LB, CB. O-line, TE.	Vince Manuwai, OG	Power guard.
53	Jets	DT, LB. WR, FB.	Rien Long, DT	High motor guy but not a bulky run stuffer.� Need pick but decent to good value.
54	Saints	ILB, DT, CB, (S). TE	Julian Battle, FS	Will pair with Lawyer Milloy to upgrade the safety position over the pair fielded a season ago, Knight and Bellamy.
55	Falcons	CB, DT WR	Sam Aiken, WR	A big WR to give Vick and the Falcons 4-wide capability.
56	Giants	DE, ILB, S, WR	Mike Doss, SS	Would allow Shaun Williams to move back to safety
57	49ers	DT, LDE, S. OT.	Kevin Garrett, CB	SF 3^rd down defense was at the bottom last year; Garrett figures to be an improvement at NCB with Mike Rumph moving to FS
58	Colts	DT, DB, LB. WR.	Nick Barnett, LB	Very strong sideline-to-sideline defender who will replace Mike Peterson; is another speed player for that Dungy defense.
59	Steelers	DB, DL, OLB. TE, RB	Tully Banta-Cain, OLB	Highly productive player at Cal, Combine and Pro Day measurables were Porter-like.�
60	Titans	WR, RB	Justin Fargas, RB	Size, speed and strength but durability has been a problem
61	Eagles	ILB. RB, WR.	Tyrone Calico, WR	Huge and fast, runs bad routes now but has #1 WR type upside.
62	Eagles (From GB for Al Harris)	ILB. RB, WR.	Musa Smith, RB	Has franchise ability but durability is at issue with this RB too.
63	Raiders	DE, DT, LB, OC	Jeff Faines, OC	Groom to replace Robbins.
64	Bucs	Speed WR, O-line	Dave Ragone, QB	Coach Gruden gets a QB to groom for the future.

(16) D-side players to include two DE, two DT, three LB, four CB and five safeties.

(16) O-side players to include two QB, three RB, four WR, two TE, three OT, one OG and one OC.

Third Round:

Slot	Team	Needs	Player	Remarks
65	Bengals	CB. QB, WR, interior OL	Al Johnson, OC	Groom to replace Gutierrez
66	Lions	DE, DB, MLB. WR, OG.	Montrae Holland, OG	Road-grader
67	Texans	S, OLB. RB, OT, WR.	Antwan Peek, OLB	3-4 prototype.
68	Bears	DT, DE, LB QB, OT	Tony Pashos, OT	Tremendous value at the spot, replaces Big Cat.
69	Bengals (PD) from Cowboys	CB. QB, WR, interior OL	Ovie Mughelli, FB	Tops at position of need.
70	Cardinals	DE, CB. QB, WR.	Walter Young, WR
71	Vikings	Defense. OT.	Rod Babers, CB	Very small but strong and fast; in the worst case, should be a solid nickel.
72	Jags	CB, S, ILB. WR.	Charles Tillman, CB	Big CB/FS who is a high character small school player and ran 4.43-4.48 at Combine.�
73	Seahawks	DE, DT, ILB.	Gerald Hayes, ILB	Best at position of need, assuming Claiborne isn�t re-signed
74	Rams	CB, ILB. OT.	DeJuan Groce, CB/KR	Will be 4^th CB but best value is as a return man.
75	Redskins	DE, DT.	Calvin Pace, DE	Highest ranked DE still on the board; very good value for a team whose owner has little concept of that quality.
76	Panthers	CB. QB, OT, WR	Eugene Wilson, CB	Similar to Derek Ross or William Petersen in that attitude issues cause this highly ranked CB to slide into the 3^rd.
77	Ravens	DT. WR, OT, QB	Kevin Curtis, WR	Very fast, highly intelligent player.
78	Saints	ILB, DT, CB, (S). TE	Jarrett Johnson, DT	Good value at the spot.
79	Bills	DE, S.	Robert Johnson, TE	May be the best blocking TE in the draft.
80	Chargers	DB, DT, DE. WR, (OT)	Kareem Kelly, WR	Tremendous speed at the position.
81	Patriots	DT, CB. RB, WR	Colin Branch, S	Superior Combine and Stanford smarts; will bring some youth to the safety position here.
82	Broncos	DE, CB. OT, TE	LJ Smith, TE	May be the best receiving TE in the class.
83	Texans	S, OLB. RB, OT, WR	Terence Holt, S	High character guy and great ST performer.
84	Browns	LB, CB. O-line, TE	Andrew Williams, DE	Undersized speed rusher out of Miami, to be groomed in a Jamir Miller role.
85	Jets	DT, LB. WR, FB.	Justin Griffith, FB	Athleticism to replace Ritchie Anderson.
86	Saints	ILB, DT, CB, (S). TE	Torrin Tucker, OG
87	Dolphins	OLB LOT, WR	Doug Gabriel, WR	BAP.
88	Texans	S, OLB. RB, OT, WR	Aaron Hunt, OLB	Depth pick, in-state product.
89	49ers	DT, LDE, S. OT	Wade Smith, OG
90	Colts	DT, DB, LB. WR.	Justin Gage, WR	Possession type.
91	Giants	DE, ILB, S, WR	Ricky Manning. CB	Nickel corner.
92	Steelers	DB, DL, OLB. TE, RB.	Bennie Joppru, TE	Better receiver than blocker now but has frame to develop as an all-around performer at the position.
93	Titans	WR, RB	Rashad Moore, DT
94	Packers	LB, DE, DT. QB	Kenny King, DE
95	Eagles	ILB. RB, WR.	George Wrighster, TE	Excellent seam receiver converted FB.
96	Raiders	DE, DT, LB, OC	James Lee, DT	Big move off outstanding Combine.
97	Bucs	Speed WR, O-line	Onterrio Smith, RB	Breakaway speed but character issues caused him to drop.� However, Gruden�s reign in Oakland provided him experience with character types.

(16) D-side players to include three DE, three DT, three LB, five CB and two safeties.

(17) O-side players to include zero QB, one RB, two FB, five WR, four TE, one OT, three OG and one OC.

Overall:

(50) D-side players to include ten DE, twelve DT, nine LB, twelve CB and seven safeties.

(47) O-side players to include six QB, six RB, two FB, twelve WR, seven TE, seven OT, five OG and two OC.

Steeler-centric wrap-up:

It should be noted that the preceding projection was intended to predict the Steeler FO�s method and opportunities.� The trade proposed mimics that in 2001 when the Steelers received a 4^th and 6^th to move down three spots in the 1^st round; here they get a 5^th, rather than a 6^th, as a reward for moving eight places rather than three.� The Steeler method suggests big school players shall be drafted early; their selection of Chris Hope in 2003 suggests this man as Flower�s replacement at SS.� LOT is at issue; however, the problem there cannot be addressed in the draft.� Marvel Smith has made 41 starts at OT, Oliver Ross 1 and Mathias Nkwenti none.� The problem is inexperience, not talent; that so, the Steelers would be far better served bringing in a veteran OT than reaching for a prospect who, like Nkwenti, has made no NFL starts.� (Note: this article was first posted about 9 hours before the Steeler FO signed Todd Fordham).� �

Rules of projection:

� Stewart is gone and both Breuner and the Bus are to be eliminated pre-June for cap purposes.� The Stewart dismissal allowed the Steeler FO to tender their FA and, indirectly, to get into the 2003 FA market on a limited basis.� The antique B-brothers ought be eliminated now so to clear 2004 space to deal with Bell and Burress.

� The FO can expect, at most, two rookies to move in as starters in 2003; those players are the prospects selected in the top 60.� The primary positions of need are D-back, TE and LOT.� The D-back may be either a Cover 3 type or TE-covering SS; however, the FO�s preceding Hope-pick prioritizes the former.�� Previous analysis suggests that the Steelers have two shots at a starting CB, those being at 27 and 59 only.� Additionally, the team�s failures in 2002 to pressure passers out of their package sets puts something of a premium on dime DE, or as we say here, OLB.

� The primary role spots are: power RB and D-backs for the packages.� Quality depth is required at OLB and on the D-line.� That may be true at safety too as there is no particular reason to believe that Mike Logan will be ready to roll within 9 months of his season-ending knee surgery.

� While the FO�s method emphasizing college productivity is accepted for the early rounds, this is overturned on the second day.� In this projection, measurables increasingly dominate; the argument for this was given previously, in the �Brief History��

� Second day prospects shall be selected to contribute on ST and/or to challenge bottom-feeders on the existing roster especially at QB, D-back, OLB and D-line.

Day One:

2.35:� The 3-4 DE are off the board, the DB available all are reaches and therefore the Steelers move down.� Sammy Davis had a fine Combine effectively confirming his collegiate productivity.� This player is, IMO, the best of the big school, big CB; as a pro, he will be (again, IMO) no worse than #3 at the position.� In this projection, Davis moves in as a starter at CB and either Scott or DW (probably Washington) move to FS.� The latter move puts a vet in the middle of the field (as drafting a safety would not) and, at minimum, the Steelers get better in the latter spot.� More likely, they will improve at both positions.

2.59:� Tully Banta-Cain is another player whose collegiate excellence was confirmed by Combine and Pro Day workouts.� TBC tested in the Joey Porter range; he should be considered the designated heir to Jason Gildon.� In the interim, this player projects to make more impact as a package rusher than did Clark Haggans

3.92:� Benny Joppru is an upside type TE prospect; currently much better as a receiver than a blocker, Joppru does have the frame to gain strength and bulk.� It is reasonable to project that he would move ahead of Tuman by 2005, if not sooner.

Day Two, early:� Except as noted, a prospect must be �taken� within +/-(10) spots of that shown in the Huddle Report projections.�

4^th round, 100 overall (from Bears):� Chris Brown, RB.�� Every year, some 1^st day prospect drops into the 4^th round, or beyond.� Brown may be the guy; he is a power back who lacks quickness and hasn�t shown the ability to catch the ball; as such, he does not figure as a franchise type.� However, he can grind the rock and, as we saw last season, that attribute was MIA here.� Brown is a Bam Morris type projection, here taken just a few spots after the Steelers swiped Morris in �94.

4.125:� Nnmadi Asomugha, S:� 6-2, 208# from Cal.� There is a concentration of safety prospects in the (overall) 120-130 range to include Todd Johnson, Anthony Floyd, Bryan Scott and Asomugha.� You might add Jesse Sowells who, possibly, will be drafted in this area.� Of those five, Asomugha would be my preference; he ran sub 4.5, his Pac 10 production was equal to or better than that of Dennis Weathersby and the fact that he is listed as a safety but worked out with the CB suggests a considerable degree of cover skills.� Unlike the others, he has the frame length to cover TE.

5a, 133 overall from the Texans in compensation for Clark Haggans:� DE Osi Umenyiora, 6-3, 280#, 4.78 40 from Troy State.� Highly productive in a small school environment; at 21, has time to develop either as a near-term dime DE or, later, as a solid 4-3 LDE.� It is doubtful that the Texans will actually move on Haggans but, if they do, this is a guy with a much brighter future.

5b, 134 overall as part of the Bears trade proposed:� NT Colin Cole, 6-1, 309# from Iowa.� Big Ten hard-nose to back up Casey.

5.158:� QB Brian St. Pierre, 6-3, 218# from Boston College.� Best of the 3^rd tier QB.

6.190:�� OLB Khalid Abdullah, 6-2, 227# from Mars Hill.� As good an athlete as, say, Shurron Pierson; obviously, will require considerable coaching.� (Note: Brantley here originally but the Fordham signing has reduced the OT need.)

7.224:� OT Derrick Brantley, 6-4, 305# from Clemson.� Blew out a knee early in 2002; would be a medical red-shirt in 2003 but eventually could develop into a functional starter at OT.�� DE Antonio Garay may also fit as a 1^st day value marked down by injury.� IF both are off the board, then a player such as FS Anthony Floyd (who made plays in college but ran slow at the Combine) could fit the Sammy Knight/Marlon McCree mode.

In the likely event that the Steelers don�t deal down, then Colin Cole would be my 5^th round pick with, hopefully Umenyiora in the 6^th.� Alternatively, the Steelers could move on St. Pierre and perhaps pick up Matt Leonard later.� Regardless, Davis, Banta-Cain, Joppru, Asomugha and Abdullah would, IMO, constitute value at 27, 59, 92, 125 and 190 respectively.

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Mock Draft, version 2.1

March 17, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Terrell Suggs, DE

QB

Defense.

Ty Warren, DT

O-line, TE.

TE

WR

RB, WR.

Dave Ragone, QB

QB, OT

Defense.

TE

TE

QB