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At the Quarter

October 03, 2003 by Steel Phantom

At the quarter pole:

At the quarter:

 

The Steelers are #2 in total offense and #2 in total defense too.� Sounds like a 4-0 team but, as we�ve seen, that is not so.� Two is the number in this the season two-double-o-trey; the PS stands 2-2, having whipped two below average teams and taken twin thrashings from two legit contenders.

 

The problem on offense is apparent.� The Steelers can move between the 20s but they can�t get it done in the Red Zone.� Why?� Well, except as they can execute boss pitch left, they can�t run the ball at all.� The Steelers are #1 in pass offense but they are #20 in rush offense and their 3.1 YPC rate is a pitiful T-27.�

 

In the bad old days, the Steelers couldn�t score in the RZ because they couldn�t throw effectively.� Now, they can�t score in deep because they can�t run the ball.� That�s not on the RB, IMO; that is mainly on the O-line, especially the interior.� To range the field, let�s look at some RZ stats:

 

Per Stats, Inc., through Week 3 all teams had made 265 RZ trips.� Those resulted in 134 TD, just over 50%.� There were 102 FG too so 236 scores in those 265; that�s some kind of score on 89% of all trips.� Presuming all extra points were converted, that�s 1244 points or 4.69 points per trip.� Remember, that�s average; good teams do more.

 

Through four games, the Steelers have made 15 trips, scored 5 TD and 6 FG; they�ve been zipped 4 times.� So, you�re looking at 53 points, or 3.53 points per trip and a scoring percentage of 73%.� That just stinks though, on the plus side, the Steelers are getting into the RZ 3.75/game which does exceed the league average of 2.76.

 

So, what you�ve got is a team that is #2 in yards and #21 in PPG.� Various theories have been advanced, say, too few EZ tosses, bad personnel sets, whatever.� A couple days ago, Alan Faneca had it that teams were blitzing inside because Tommy Maddox, unlike Kordell Stewart, is no threat to roll away from that pressure.� That�s all true but you know, Maddox was the QB last year and, especially early on in the T-Max regime, the PS was highly effective in the RZ.� I�m pretty sure that Maddox didn�t have more escape ability last year than this so IMO, Faneca�s observation can be described as true, but irrelevant.� Let�s take a look back:

 

In 2002: with T-Max at the helm, the Steelers were 19/41 in the RZ.� That�s not great; in fact, it�s a little below the league standard noted above.� However, it breaks out like this:

 

  • Weeks 4-7:� The Steelers were 10/15 in the RZ with Maddox in control.� This stretch included Cleveland 1 (where Maddox relieved Stewart), New Orleans, Cincinnati and Indianapolis.� You know they were even more effective considering that one �failure� was that foray intended to set up Peterson�s winning FG against Cleveland.�

 

  • Weeks 8-17:� The Steelers were 9/26; more or less, this is where they are now.� Toss out 5/8 cumulative in Weeks 8 and 17 (both against Baltimore where AZ scored all of his 4 regular season TD) and that�s 4/18, which is truly awful.

 

So, what happened in Week 7, 2002?� Well, that was the Indy game, when both Bettis and Hartings went down.� Bettis had scored 5TD over weeks 5, 6, and 7; after that, he scored in just two more games in 2002 and this year, well, he�s done what he�s done.� Chukky Okobi had all of his 5 career starts over that 4/18 period cited above so, more than likely, he�s not the guy.���

 

Last season, the Steelers had great RZ success running 4-wide with Spike solo and trips opposite.� Now, if they could, they�d do that this year too; I mean, it�s not like Mike Mularkey got stupid last winter.� The thing is, they can�t spread it out now because their O-line just can�t hold up.� Balance counts, especially down deep but the PS now is so weak inside that all their strength on the edges just doesn�t matter.� There is absolutely no reason for any opponent to give any respect at any time to the Steelers inside run game.� In contrast, there are two good reasons for every opponent to blitz up inside; one, that is the shortest route to the QB and, two, it works great.�

 

That�s the problem and there may be no solution.� For what it�s worth, I�d pull Kendall Simmons since IMO this player has been so awful that it is just impossible properly to evaluate either Fordham or Hartings.� Hartings may be a shadow of what he was in 2001; Fordham probably is a journeyman, at best.� What we know for sure is that Simmons, under strength last season, has lost whatever he may have built over the winter.� Players train to compete; that�s preparation and as we all know, Simmons� prep got undermined last summer.� Now, you cannot train up during the competitive season; you might maintain but it is past probable to gain.� Therefore, what we�ve seen with Simmons is what we�ll see throughout 2003 and, until he has time to re-build, that will not be enough.

 

Statistically, the situation on defense parallels that on the other side.� As noted, the PS are #2 in total yards but, as to scoring against, they are #23, at 24PPG.� That last is misleading to some degree as 21 of 96 points allowed have come from 3 return scores; additionally, 3 RZ drives by opponents have been setup by TO or poor ST play (that�s Haynes� fumble Week 1, Hall�s PR Week 2 and Rolle�s INT comeback Week 4). Pull out those 42 points (on, say, 10 yards allowed), toss in that safety and the PS defense is giving just 13.25 PPG, a figure approaching their 2001 golden standard.

 

Are they that good?� Well, it�s too soon to say but I doubt it.� I may do a more detailed breakdown at the mid-point or so but for now just consider:

 

  • The Steeler safety tandem could not start for any of their opponents.� Reed and Baxter in Baltimore, Wesley and Woods in KC, certainly Schulters and Williams in Tennessee out class Alex and Logan.� IMO, Rogers Beckett was the best safety on the field in the Cincinnati game.�� Through 4 tilts, Alex has 0 PD, and 0 INT; Logan started well but has done little in the past two weeks.� As was true last season, the Steelers are overmatched in the middle of the field.

 

  • The Steeler pass defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed; however, their QB rating against (83.6) puts them at #19.� The #1 pass-d team in terms of yards, Tampa Bay, has a QB rating against of 23.9; that�s #1 too.� The Bucs have allowed 0 TD while hauling in 7 INT; the Steeler numbers are 6 TD and 4 picks. �IMO, those returns against tallied by KC and the Titans may have given the Steeler pass-d some sort of reprieve as, for sure, turtle-mode is not unique to Pittsburgh in the league that is no fun.

 

  • The Steelers have 8 sacks this season.� Of those, Bengal LOT Levi Jones has allowed 4; Jones was serially abused by Kendrell Bell, KVO, Bell again and finally Joey Porter.� Unfortunately, Levi Jones plays LOT for just one NFL team, not 31.

 

  • Dewayne Washington is 2nd on the team in tackles.� That�s not good; a CB ranking in T is like a LB leading in INT.� That is exactly what�s happening; the LB corps has 3 picks this season, the DB group 1.� In the early going, Coach Lewis� new schemes have put his playmakers, the LB, in position to make plays.� That�s all good; however, those schemes cannot rejuvenate the secondary, they can only (partially) conceal that unit�s group deficiencies.

 

  • The Steelers are #10 in run-d allowing 86 YPG; since week 2, they�ve reduced opponent YPC to 3.6 which is in the same range.� However, Eddie George is all done and Corey Dillon went out early; the Steelers failed to stop either Jamal Lewis or Priest Holmes and they�ll get another stiff test in Denver, two weeks from now.� It�s noteworthy that both the Ravens and Chiefs had considerable success running out of 2 TE sets against that Steeler OKIE.� Maybe, Porter is the answer, maybe not; one thing for sure, Clark Haggans wasn�t.� In the Chief game, KC ran stretch right (to Gildon�s side) 10 times and came away with less than 40 yards.� KC ran stretch left at Haggans 5 times and came away with 50 yards and a TD.�� In fairness to Haggans, the Chiefs did exploit Bailey and Clancy in that contest; with those two in, KC averaged damn near 7YPC.� To this date, Kendrick Clancy has 0T, 0A; as posited earlier here, the Steelers are, as they were last season, just about one injury from catastrophe on the D-line.

 

What�s one difference between the Titans and Steelers?� Well, consider this table of 3rd round and beyond picks since 2000; we�re looking at starters and contributors in the game last Sunday.

 

 

Starters taken 3rd or later

Contributors

Titans

TE Erron Kinney, 3rd/00

DT Robaire Smith, 6th/00

OLB Peter Sirmon, 4th/01

WR Drew Bennett, UFDA/01

OC Justin Hartwig, 6th/02

TE Shad Meier. 3rd/01

WR Justin McCareins, 4th/01

DE Juqua Thomas, UFDA/01

OLB Rocky Boiman, 4th/02

DB Tony Beckham, 4th/02

DE Carlos Hall, 7th/02

Steelers

None

OLB Clark Haggans, 5th/00

DE Rodney Bailey, 6th/01

 

Not to say that all those Titans should be starting but, quite obviously, the depth advantage is all with Tennessee.� Here�s proof positive (or negative) of the 2nd day effect on the Steeler roster over the Colbert Era.�

 

Here�s another factor; in 2001 the Titan starting safeties were Blaine Bishop and Perry Phenix.� Both were let go, for different reasons, following that campaign.� The Titans picked up two new guys early in calendar 2002; they were FA Lance Schulters and 2nd round pick Tank Williams.� Last winter, facing a similar deficiency at the safety position, the Steelers took a different course.� We�ll see how that goes, so far though, advantage Tennessee.

 

Bad Stupidity:

 

Coming into this season, the Steeler staff sought to reduce Maddox�s INT rate by installing some number of checkdown, safety routes.� Well, of 6 picks to date, 2 have been on slants or curl-ins, 2 more on little middle tosses; only 2 INT went 10 yards or more in the air.� In Cincy, Maddox threw a skinny post while Doering turned out; that�s a miscommunication.� Only the third pick in KC, when T-Max fired into triple coverage, could be described as �forcing the ball downfield.�� These facts stand in contrast to certain pronouncements at Coach Cowher�s latest exercise in press control.

 

The Steelers are facing a steady diet of Cover 2.� That set is designed to take away the deep ball.� There are at least two counters to that, neither involving throwing short in the middle.� Instead, the PS ought to consider routes at the hashes but over the MLB, presumably to their pass catching TE.� Additionally, while that scheme can�t be stretched vertically, it can be deformed horizontally, especially with flares to RB on the move.� The last was suggested by Desi several weeks ago, and makes all the sense in the world.� To win, the PS must re-establish their vertical game; to accomplish that, they first have got to widen their area of attack.

 

Next Opponent:

 

Three key factors against Cleveland:

 

  • The Steelers are running it at 3.1 YPC; the Browns are giving ground at 5.3.� This looks like the resistible force approaching the moveable object but that may not be so.� We all know that Jamal Lewis blew up in Week 2 against Cleveland; however, of J-Lew�s 295 rushing yards, more than 200 came on just 5 trips.� The Browns have been bad defending, but they haven�t been consistently bad.� In fact, in two games (Colts Week 1 and SF Week 3), that maligned group has yielded zero TD.� In contrast, the Steeler ground game has, Cincy aside, been consistently awful.

 

  • Thru 3 weeks, Cleveland opponents had made 8 RZ trips; they came away with 0 TD.� On the plus side, the Bengals were 2/2 in the Brown RZ last week; so, coming into Week 5, the Browns have allowed 2 TD in 10 trips, or 3 fewer than the norm, 50%.� The Steelers problems in the RZ have been discussed.

 

  • The Cleveland 4-wide against what, presumably, will be Coach Lewis� dime.� Neither Baltimore nor Cincinnati had any WR depth; what with those TO and return bonanzas, both KC and the Titans could throttle down early on the O-side.� This week could be a more comprehensive test.�

 

Summary:

 

To date, the PS has the look of a team that does have some salient strength, but one with deep structural problems too.� In the aggregate, they�re middle of the pack just now.� To rise above that state, they�re going to have to beat some really good team; alternatively, they could drop a few they �should� win, so sinking back.�� Which do you think is going too happen first?

 

This edition�s fate depends almost entirely on their O-line; just now, that group is under-performing at 3 spots and, off an earlier Phorecast here, something south of the standard 10-6 looks like a real possibility.

 

 

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