Coughin’ Carson Palmer Returns for the Rematch

It�s Choke Time at the Apollo

Coughin� Carson Palmer Returns for the Rematch�� ������By PalmerSucks

 

 

As the original debunker of the Carson Palmer myth, I�ve caught more than my share of crap for my view of the Golden Boy as an overrated choker.

 

I could understand the ridicule a few years ago, back when the Bengals looked like the NFL�s young up-and-comers. Since then, however, they�ve steadily declined, until the only thing they�re in danger of clinching is a spot in the AFC North cellar.

 

You�d think this would put an end to all the Palmer jock riding � but no. No matter how many games the Bengals lose, Teflon Carson escapes the blame. Granted, a team like Cincy has a lot of it to go around � but should Palmer get off scot free the way he has?

 

Rather than catch heat, the Cornhole King�s actually scored pity for the team�s flops. Seriously, O.J. must go to bed jealous of what this guy�s managed to pull off in Cincy.

 

To hear the whiners there, poor Palmer would be granted early entry into the Hall of Fame if he had a defense anything like the Steelers. But for all their crying about what he doesn�t have, maybe these apologists ought to look at the gifts that Pampered Palmer�s enjoyed since the day he stepped on Bengal turf � things most QBs can only dream of.

 

1. A top offensive line
2. 1500-yard run support
3. An elite WR corps

 

Again, it�s not just the benefits � it�s their CONSISTENCY that matters most. With the exception of Peyton Manning, no other NFL QB has enjoyed the chance to work with the same group of top WRs, year in, year out. The QB can develop rapport, an advantage whose value can�t begin to be expressed here.

 

For example: the longer a QB and receiver play together, the better the QB knows him, and can count on him to be where he�s going to go with the ball. (And that�s just for starters!) Now multiply that advantage by 3, and you�ll have an idea of the ridiculous luxury Palmer�s enjoyed for most of his playing career.

 

3 top WRs, and the chance to play with them year in and year out � how can a QB not put up impressive stats? Now imagine if Roethlisberger had gotten to play with Burress, Ward and Randle-El each season. Think his numbers wouldn�t be up just a little?

 

Palmer also enjoyed the same advantages during his college years -- which is why I have the nerve to suggest he�s simply a decent system QB surrounded by superior athletes. A pampered quarterback who built a reputation beating up on inferior competition.

 

So then, have I brought all this up just to rip the guy? Yes, and believe me I�m having fun doing it. But there is also a point to be made.

 

To me, Carson Palmer is a textbook choker � and it�s precisely his pampering that�s led to his gagging tendencies. Quite simply, when you�ve always had it easy you generally don�t build up the mental toughness it takes to succeed under adverse conditions. Kind of like a kid from the cushy suburbs stumbling down a bad inner-city block; you know it�s not going to go well for him.

 

Palmer�s built nice stats against lame competition, but against playoff-caliber teams he�s tended to fade, particularly in the second half. Last year�s loss to San Diego was a fine example: a 49-41 shootout in which the high-powered Bengal O managed only a measly field goal the entire fourth quarter.

 

But hey, Palmer racked up 400+ plus yards passing and 3 TDs � not his fault, right? So what if he did about all his damage in the first half � it�s up to the D to hold!� And so the off-scot-freeness continues, especially in the Queen City. (No doubt when Palmer sat down to dinner last Thursday, he gave thanks for the crappy Cincy defense, and the cover for blame they provide him.)

 

I�ve seen this same pattern in games Palmer�s played against teams like Indy and New England. First half, stay competitive. Second half, melt like a little plastic soldier stuck inside a microwave.

 

Now before you accuse me of cherry-picking games, let�s look at Palmer�s season as a whole. Here I�ve broken down his situation stats to give a look at how he performs as the games progress:

 

 

Attempts	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
Attempts 1--10	110	80	72.7	994	9.0	56	7	4	52	47.3	11	0	106.4
Attempts 11-20	110	81	73.6	868	7.9	50	3	3	41	37.3	11	0	94.1
Attempts 21-30	101	65	64.4	601	6.0	28	6	2	32	31.7	6	0	92.1
Attempts 31+	97	56	57.7	613	6.3	37	5	6	36	37.1	10	0	67.9

 

 

As you can see, Palmer works like an old air conditioner: starts out hot, then cools down gradually. The classic fading pattern!

 

And the pattern continues, no matter how you break it down:

 

 

Half	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
1st Half	188	140	74.5	1,657	8.8	56	10	7	84	44.7	20	9	103.1
2nd Half	230	142	61.7	1,419	6.2	37	11	8	77	33.5	18	6	80.7
Last 2 Minutes of Half	46	27	58.7	280	6.1	30	0	4	16	34.8	4	0	40.1

 

Great in the first half, mediocre in the second. The god of gag strikes again!

 

And the last two minutes of each half, otherwise known as �crunch time�? Ouch � we�re not even in Kordell territory here! (Well, maybe that 0-4 TD-to-Int ratio.)

 

 

Quarters	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
1st Quarter	86	58	67.4	769	8.9	56	6	2	40	46.5	9	6	109.1
2nd Quarter	102	82	80.4	888	8.7	50	4	5	44	43.1	11	3	95.6
3rd Quarter	106	73	68.9	708	6.7	37	6	3	36	34.0	9	4	94.4
4th Quarter	124	69	55.6	711	5.7	32	5	5	41	33.1	9	2	69.0
4th Quarter within 7	115	64	55.7	681	5.9	32	4	5	38	33.0	9	0	66.6

 

Same thing by quarters � Palmer fades like a new black shirt tossed into a washing machine full of bleach. And the �4^th quarter within 7� numbers drive home the point: he�s gagging it up even while the Bengals can still run and use play-action.

 

Oooh � I�m sooo crazy for even suggesting Palmer may not be quite the elite QB the TV droolers make him out to be!

 

Attempts	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
�1-Through-10	110	80	72.7	994	9.0	56	7	4	52	47.3	11	0	106.4
�11-Through-20	110	81	73.6	868	7.9	50	3	3	41	37.3	11	0	94.1
�21-Through-30	101	65	64.4	601	6.0	28	6	2	32	31.7	6	0	92.1
31+	97	56	57.7	613	6.3	37	5	6	36	37.1	10	0	67.9

 

Finally, we look at raw attempts � why clearly the Cincinnati Bengals cannot win games when Carson Palmer has to throw it more than 30 times!

 

Now for a little perspective, let�s compare those numbers with Roethlisberger�s:

 

 

Half	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
1st Half	172	109	63.4	1,264	7.3	43	14	6	66	38.4	18	18	98.1
2nd Half	116	84	72.4	1,116	9.6	45	9	3	61	52.6	15	16	117.6
Last Two Minutes of Half	41	20	48.8	235	5.7	31	5	1	16	39.0	2	6	96.0

 

Looks like Ben gets stronger as the game goes on � good thing he didn�t play QB at USC!

 

Attempts	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Int	1st	1st%	20+	Sck	Rate
Attempts 1-10	110	76	69.1	868	7.9	43	9	4	41	37.3	15	0	104.7
Attempts 11-20	106	67	63.2	840	7.9	45	6	3	47	44.3	9	0	94.9
Attempts 21-30	57	37	64.9	512	9.0	31	5	1	28	49.1	6	0	115.5
Attempts 31+	15	13	86.7	160	10.7	29	3	1	11	73.3	3	0	122.9

 

Here the numbers IMPROVE moving into the later-game attempts. So much for the �Steelers can�t win if Ben has to throw it more than __ times a game� crowd (but that�s a discussion for a different day).

 

Is the world finally waking up to the truth?

 

I came across this post from a fan on a Cincy board by a guy awake enough to begin facing reality. He�s also done a nice job of making my point for me. (Thanks, Mr. Non-Braindead Bengals fan!)

 

Below are his observations, spelling errors and all:

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I went back 2 years to look at what the Bengals record was if they were down by a 1 possession score with the ball inside of 3:30 in the 4th. Basically, the Bengals have a chance the last possession in the game with a chance to win or tie.

 

From what I could find, they are 0-9 in the past 2 years (they have won games where the defense held the opponents from game winning drives). This is specifically for the Bengals offense to win a game with their last possession.

 

0 and freaking 9!!!�

 

2005:

Jacksonville � down 23-20 with 2:42 left starting on CIN 22. Bengals fumble to lose game

 

Indianapolis � down 45-37 with 1:23 left starting at CIN 44. Bengals turn it over on downs

 

2006:

Tampa Bay � down 14-13 with 0:35 left starting at CIN 28. Bengals miss FG and lose game.

 

Atlanta � down 29-27 with 0:19 left starting on CIN 17. Bengals fumble to lose game (can�t really blame them for this one.)

 

San Diego � down 49-41 with 2:29 left starting on CIN 40. Bengals turn it over on downs.

 

Denver � down 24-17 with 3:11 left starting on CIN 10. Bengals score a TD but miss extra point. Lose 24-23.

 

Pittsburgh � tied 17-17 with 1:03 left starting on CIN 33. Bengals miss a FG and lose in OT.

 

2007:

Cleveland � down 51-45 with 1:09 left starting on CIN 9. Carson throws an INT and game over.

 

Seattle � down 24-21 with 1:00 left. Bengals fumble kick-off return. Game over.

 

 

 

In case you didn�t get that: the Bengals are 0-for-the-last-couple-seasons in games they�ve had a chance to win on their last possession. �But how can this be when they have a truly elite QB like Carson Palmer to lead them? I � cough cough � have no � hack � idea!

 

Of course, like a good Bengals fan, the poster goes to the edge of the diving board, but won�t jump off; quickly he makes sure he points out all Carson has done despite the crunch-time collapses. But the mere fact that a homer is beginning to open his eyes speaks encyclopedias. Slowly but surely, the world is catching up to the wisdom of PalmerSucks. It�s about time!

 

Yes, as you scream �Jergens!� to commemorate Rosy Palmer�s return to Heinz Swamp this Sunday, keep this in mind: the quarterback position is about more than just having a strong arm. It�s about having a strong heart and stomach too.

 

There�s a difference between being a great passer and being a great quarterback. Palmer may be the better passer, but he�ll never be the total-package quarterback that guys like Roethlisberger are. One day they may even learn that in Cincinnati. That is, when they�ve run out of excuses for the Teflon Boy.

 

The Steelers may be struggling lately, but that�s nothing that a visit from Chokin� Carson can�t cure. Thing is though, he�s actually fared better in Pittsburgh lately than he has at home. So here�s hoping he brings his A (as in �Arrest Breathing�) game to Heinz this weekend. That, and a dose of the Bengals ghost of a run D, should be just what the (ahem) doctor ordered.

 

Like an NFL receiver once said: �getcha popcorn ready!� Just be sure to chew it carefully � you wouldn�t want to choke or anything.