Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Playoff Round 1

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Playoff Round 1:

 

It�s a new year and, as it is said, it�s a new season too, now that the playoff rounds have begun.� Oddly though, the Steelers are opening against the very team that dogged them throughout the past year.� In the same way that, for most of us, trivaling vice passes easily through the barrier of our resolution on the brink of any new year, so too are the Browns coming to town intent on scrumming a Steeler season once certain to end in the earthly paradise that is San Diego but now in jeopardy on the far less than sublime North Shore.

 

Yeah, the Browns are like a bad habit that you just can�t break.� To err is human; that�s long been said anyway and, certainly, there is little evidence to the contrary.� The trouble is that sin is ultimately boring; the great are separated from the not-so not so much on the absence of trailing habit but on the scope of such failing.� Our resolutions to do better stem less from any impulse towards self-improvement than from the sneaking suspicion that our vices demean us, not by their malevolency but by their mundane nature.� In the same way that most would exchange habits, say, a carton-a-week cigarette Jones for sex addiction and an imaginatively compliant Lolita, so too would 9-7 Miami or 9-7 Denver or even the 9-7 Pats be a more interesting foe for this opener than 9-7 Cleveland but, then, so it goes.

 

The preponderance of 9-7, 8-8 teams in the AFC suggests that most of those squads were pretty average aggregates.� Given that, we�ve got to acknowledge that the Law of Averages does not favor the Steelers in this match-up.� Pittsburgh was 6-0 in division on the way to 10-5-1 overall; last year, they were 7-3 in-board on their way to 13-3 overall.� The Steelers are 6-2 against the new Browns including five straight wins stretched over three seasons.� Of those five, two were blowouts but a FG settled three and, of those, two went into OT.� Win and the Steelers would elongate several outlandish skeins; lose and this B&G edition, just slightly above average from all indications, would regress back towards the mean.

 

Of course football games are decided on the field, not by odds or abacus.� Turning to the games these teams played in the regular season:

 

On the face of it, the Steeler D-side effectively choked down the Browns.� In two games, Cleveland had just (438) yards total offense; this includes (159) on the ground and (279) through the air.� The Brown O-side scored only (3) TD and (2) FG.� While this looks very promising, in fact, the Cleve-O match-up with the Steeler defense, then dime-dependent, looked more like Dumb and Dumber than any thoroughgoing beat-down.� Consider this, from the Browns Notes attached as a preview to the Steelers� Game 8 in my Week 8 in Review:

 

�In the first two games of the season, the Steelers had all kinds of problems stopping 5-wide attacks.� In neither game, did they stop the pass; in the Raider game, they failed to stop the run either.� Despite that, opponents have, pretty much, abjured that mode since.�

 

The Browns� run game is horrendous; they average just 3.5 YPC and are at, or near, the bottom in YPG.� Their O-line is beat-up and, even when healthy, none too powerful.� The Steeler Front 7 overmatches this group; consequently, we can expect to see the Browns scheme to even the odds.

 

Couch ran a spread at UK and the Browns have (4) talented WR to go with Jamel White, a RB in the Garner mode who can catch it out of the backfield.� Given that, I�ve got to believe that the Browns will spread it out and, at some point, we�ll see whether the dime line can stop the run out of a single back set�

 

Presuming Cleveland spreads the field, I think they�ll score and score often���

 

Well, as it turned out, Cleveland did not the spread the field.� Instead, they tried to pound the ball and, given their reject O-line and absent a lead FB, didn�t do much.� The Browns ran for just (36) yards in Game 8; in fact, pull out Jamel White�s 54-yard run in Game 3 and the Browns gained just 105 yards on 37 trips over two games.� That�s not going to get it; that Brownie ineptitude in running the ball was contributory to Pittsburgh�s considerable TOP margin in both games.

 

Of course, some things have changed:

 

• William Green is the Browns lead back now; in the past (7) games, this man has rushed for 726 yards on 172 carries.� That�s 4.2 YPC, on average 104 yards on 24.5 trips per game.� Green was stuffed by Baltimore and slowed by, of all teams, Indianapolis but otherwise had at least 94 yards (and up to 178) in five of seven games.� Green�s performance is a large reason why the Browns� team YPC has risen from 3.5 at the halfway mark to 4.0 at the season close.

 

• Kelly Holcombe will be at QB; Holcombe was a miserable 7/14 for 86 yards with (1) TD against (2) picks in Cleveland�s finale with Atlanta.� This performance dropped his season QB rating from +100 to 92.9; Holcombe had built that enviable mark on the strength of two early season starts where he accomplished 44/69 for 524 yards with (5) TD against (0) picks.� That�s fine work though it is true that his opposition, KC and Cincinnati, was two of the poorer pass-d teams in football.� Then again, the Steeler secondary has a knack for making ordinary QB look like Marino or Montana incarnate.� We can be certain that Holcombe will be sharper this week than last; we can hope that the Steeler D-backs will be more effective than those in either Barbeque City or Bungle-Land.

 

Some things have stayed the same:

 

• Cleveland has some quality WR:� Kevin Johnson led the team with (67) catches; Quincy Morgan averaged 17.2 yards per catch (that�s a bit ahead of Plax at 17.0); Dennis Northcutt led the team with (8) TD including (5) receiving, (2) return and (1) rushing; Andre Davis was second with (7) TD to include (6) receiving and (1) return.� Northcutt averaged a healthy 15.8 yards per catch on (38) receptions; oddly, the blindingly swift Davis worked underneath for 11.4 yards per each of (37) grabs.

 

• Cleveland is the only team this side of Carolina fielding an O-line without a single player drafted by the franchise.� Every Brown starter on that unit was a FA; excluding LOT Ross Verba, none are much more than journeymen.� Be that as it may, the Browns allowed just (35) sacks this year, (1) more than the Steelers� 1^st round studded O-line aggregate.

 

Fun Facts?

 

• Cleveland threw (1) more pass than did the Steelers this year; the Browns had a 1-TD edge in passing (27 to 26); both teams had (22) INT against; as mentioned, the Browns had (1) more sack against.� The great discrepancy was in YPA; Cleveland had just 6.64, Pittsburgh, an impressive 7.32.

 

Keys:

 

1. Tim Lewis vs. the spread:� Coach Lewis has claimed that his group has learned to defend that package.� Well, maybe, though since early on I�ve seen few opponents actually use it.� The theory is simple enough: don�t allow receivers to get a clean release and get on the QB; however, the Steelers preferred lay-off zone is not well-suited to deliver the first part; that so, it doesn�t much matter whom they�ve got rushing.� Beyond that, with Bell out, the B&G may dime-up again and we�ve seen what that�s worth; in general, the dime has been weak against the pass and helpless against the run.� In sum, I�ve got to doubt the DC on this spread-prevent; instead, I�m hoping that either the weather or Butch Davis�s Cowher-esque opacity will roll-up that mode.

 

2. The D-line:� With Bell sure to be out and Farrior hurting, it�ll be up to Hampton, Smith and KVO to dominate in the trenches.� They�ve done that in both games this year; Smith generally has had his best output against the Browns and Hampton had a season high (6) T in Game 3.� In fact, it is worth noting that Bell has been a non-factor against the Browns this year; he was inactive for Game 3 and had just (1) T in Game 8.� Given that the starting ILB are banged up, that the back-ups are far from stout at the POA and that the safeties can�t support the run, this game is entirely in the D-line�s hands.

 

3. Pressure:� In (2) games, the Steelers had (7) sacks while Couch got off (53) passes.� That 11.66% sack rate far exceeds the Steeler season average.� Haggans and Flowers had (2) each; Smith and Bailey had (1) each; KVO and Gildon got a baggie apiece.� Of (4) INT collected by the Steelers, (3) directly resulted from pressure.

 

At full strength, the Steeler Front 7 far outmatches the Browns� O-line; therefore, I�d expect that Cleveland wouldn�t get much done against the Steeler base, whether White or Green are at RB.� However, the Steeler Front 7 is not at full strength; Bell is out and while Pittsburgh survived Game 3 with Foote paired with Farrior, Farrior is far from a certainty Sunday.� If Farrior can�t go, or can�t stay on, Jones will play and an interior pair of Foote and Jones is a big drop-off.�

 

If the Browns spread the field, they will have match-up advantages with their quartet of WR against the Steeler D-backs.� However, the Browns haven�t been able to protect their QB in two games previous and, should Holcombe go down Sunday, Cleveland�s season would be in Josh Booty�s entirely untested grip.� That�s a large gamble; it follows that Cleveland will come in their base and probe for advantage early, much as the Pats did in Game 1.� If they can�t get it done and so go to the spread, DC Lewis must make them pay the cost.� The Steeler D-line is their healthiest unit; the Steeler D-line outmatches their opponents.� It may be reasonable to emphasize that advantage, playing some 4-man fronts rather than employing the #6 and #8 LB in the middle on the base or going dime where the weakest unit (the safeties) are so prominently featured.� This suggests something more than the usual (5) D-linemen active; we�ll know early enough what Coach Cowher has planned.

 

While the Steeler D-side faces a �base or spread� quandary, the Browns� dilemma has different features.� In Game 3, Cleveland came with a 5-man front so to stop the Bus.� Given Pittsburgh�s then-present problems throwing downfield, this was an effective strategy; the Steelers didn�t move the ball until Maddox came on late.�

 

In Game 8, the Browns played C2 honoring the Maddox to Burress connection; this had some viability, especially considering that, in that game, the Steelers had just one healthy RB, Amoz.� Now, the all three RB are said to be ready, Burress is healthy; Ward and Maddox are about healthy as we can expect, as is true for the O-linemen.�

 

In two games, the Steelers put up (749) total yards including (520) in the air and (229) on the ground.� That�s switching QB, that�s with (1) RB, that�s with scrubs starting on the O-line.� Presumably, the varsity will do considerably better.� Consider this:

 

• The Browns had just (2) sacks in two games.� Courtney Brown had both; those were his only sacks on the season but Brown is out now.� Cleveland had only (28) on the year; of those, DE Mark Word had (9).

 

• Cleveland has regained service from their starting CB, Daylon McCutcheon and Corey Fuller.� Their absence, it was said, greased the way for Tommy and the 4-wide in Game 3.� That�s bull; McCutcheon is a dwarf and Fuller talks better but plays worse than announcer-boy Deion Sanders would, at 37 years of age and two years out of football.� Anything that gets Anthony Henry off the field is to the Steelers� advantage.�

 

Keys:

 

1. Take care of the ball:� The Steelers had (36) turnovers this year.� Of those, (19) occurred in (4) losses including @ NE, vs. Oakland, @ Tennessee and vs. Houston.�

 

2. Take care of the clock:� In Game 8, the Browns� C2 forced Maddox underneath and, while the Steelers got (255) net in the air, they averaged just 5.5YPA.� Similarly, they�ve gotten yards on the ground but those haven�t come easily.� In game 3, the B&G averaged just 2.7 YPC; in game 8, 3.5.� Considering that Cleveland was at the bottom of the league in YPC allowed, we�ve got to conclude that, here, the Law of Averages favors Pittsburgh.

 

3. Pick the right RB:� In Game 8, Amoz got the start and averaged 3.8 YPC.� In Game 3, Bettis got the start and averaged 1.7 YPC.� In game 16 2001, Fu got the start and averaged about 6.0 YPC.

 

Summary:

 

Butch Davis is a coach in the Cowher mode.� Both are player-friendly motivational types, neither could be described as either genius strategists or gifted game-day tacticians.� Both want to be smash-mouth tough guys regardless of their teams� actual strengths.� Neither will get out-coached this weekend.

 

In both games this year, TOP has been all.� The Steelers had the ball for 80:23 and scored (39) points; the Browns had the ball for 47:07 and scored (33) points.� That is, the Steelers wielded an average 16:38 TOP advantage to take two 3-point decisions.� Considering their injuries at ILB and CB, the Steelers� best defense will probably be a clock chewing O-side. �If Pittsburgh gets out early, we�ll see something along the lines of the T-Bay affair.� If Cleveland gets a lead, as they did in both regular season games, and can take that to the half, as they never managed to do, then we�ll all see whether or not the Browns have found their franchise in William Green.��

 

The over/under is 38:19; if the Steelers have that TOP in (60) minutes, they will match their average advantage in (2) games this year against the Browns.� �If that happens, the B&G should win; if not, pick.