2005 Game 5 Preview

 

The 3-1 Steelers need a win to stay with the AFC North leading 4-1 Bengals.� The Jags, 3-2 after handing Cincinnati their first loss last week, need a win to keep the AFC South leading 5-0 Indy Colts in sight.� More realistically, they need it to keep pace in the wildcard sweeps.�

 

Last week, the Steeler O did much of what they had to do to win.�� Foremost, they took care of the ball.� Second, they did use TE Heath Miller, and their RB corps, in the pass game.� Miller and 3 PS RB had 7 of 17 PS receptions; that is 41%, which is in line with the 41-48% rate we found (last time) for those teams atop the League�s 3^rd down conversion charts.� Finally, the PSO won TOP: 33:23 overall, although it is worth noting 19:05 came in H1.�

 

On the downside, the run game got just 104 yards on 32 trips.� At this point, the PSO is #7 in yards per game.� That�s not great but ok, except as we realize that they are as close to #17 as to #2.� It�s not for lack of attempts; the Steelers have averaged 32 rushes per game, #3 in the League, (even if 41 in Game 1 skews that a bit).�

 

Sunday, they will a face a defense that is constructed to stop the run.� Back in 2002, the last year of the Coughlin Regime, the Jags had fallen to 25^th in run-D; this despite the presence of their twin towering DT, Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, then in year 2 and year 1 respectively.� You may recall that the 2002 Steelers had considerable success in Jacksonville, running it wide.� That PS edition, no ground juggernaut, had 219 yards on 41 carries (Stewart 12/84).�

 

Following the 2002 season, Jacksonville brought in MLB Mike Peterson.� Doing so, they fashioned their D after the Baltimore Ravens of 2000: a quick MLB behind two jumbo DTs.� There is one important difference: Goose and Big Sam Adams were mainly run down stuffers but both Stroud and Henderson have the movement skills to play both run and pass effectively.� Anyway, with Peterson in the fold and their big DT developing, Jacksonville jumped to #2 in 2003 run D before falling back slightly, to 11^th in 2004.� This year, through 5 games, they are 29^th.� The question is whether that last is a trend or a blip.� Well:

 

2005 Jag D v. run:�

 

Opponent	Run results carries/yards	Feature RB results	Remarks	Other
Seahawks	19/97	Alexander: 14/73	Alexander broke one off RT (v. Spicer) for 36; otherwise not much	Jags were +5 in takeaways and had 34:11in TOP.
Colts	38/146	Edge: 27/138	LG 14; Colts typically run at the edges.�	In 10 Colt possessions, Jag D forced 7 punts and had an INT.
Jets	25/89	Martin: 18/67	LG, 16.	Jags had 36:05 in TOP.� Jet O had 8 possessions of 4 plays or fewer.�
Broncos	44/188	Anderson: 23/115 Bell: 15/60	Screens and Plummer�s boots set the stage.� LG, 23, off Spicer�s side.	In Jacksonville, Denver dominated with 38:05 in TOP and +4 in takeaways.�
Bengals	26/132	Johnson: 18/76 Perry: 7/55	�Johnson did work the middle.� Perry had his best day as a pro.	Even game statistically.� Jags got out early and then held on.

 

Neither the Seahawks nor Colts got much done up the middle but at that time, SS Donavin Darius was active.� Darius blew out a knee in Indy and will be out for the season.� Things didn�t change immediately: the Jets didn�t do much inside or out on the ground Week 3 but the Broncos did Week 4, utilizing their patented one-cut and go both off tackle and up the middle.� Last week, the Bengal RB worked the middle successfully, even though rookie OC Elvis Ghiaciuc was making his first start.�

 

Darius� absence may account for the Jags weakening center.� Outside, well, while Jacksonville used the 2004 draft to upgrade their speed at LB, the results have been mixed.� WOLB Daryl Smith has been a starter, but something of a disappointment and R3 OLB Jorge Cordova hasn�t played at all, having blown a knee in camp in 2004.� The short form is:

 

�         Upfront, the Jags� strength remains with their middle trio.� Both Stroud and Henderson are strong at the POA; by DT standards, both get all over the field.� Peterson is a sure tackler with as much range as any MLB in the League; however, this player does lack bulk to defeat blocks consistently.�

 

�         The Jags� Front 7 edge guys are good athletes and competitive players.� This includes SOLB Akin Ayodele, and both DE, LDE Reggie Hayward and RDE Paul Spicer.� As draft prospects, all may have been characterized as high KEI prospects with bad speed.� That�s proven out; generally, this certainly is a physical group but limited range is a factor on the Jag edge.�� There is one exception, OLB Daryl Smith, who does have good speed but seems to lack the frame/bulk to hold up.�

 

�         Worth noting: Shaun Alexander is #1 rushing; Edge James is #2 and Rudi Johnson #5.� The Jag run-D, widely regarded as shoddy, did hold both Alexander and Johnson under their per game average(s).

 

The Jag secondary is comprised of one stud, 2003 R2 LCB Rashean Mathis, along with a collection of culls and castoffs.� RCB Kenny Wright began his career with the Vikes.� By 2001, his 3^rd season, he�d moved in as a starter, but lost the gig midway through that campaign.� Wright spent several seasons in Houston, generally #4 at the spot.� With Darius down, ST ace Deke Cooper, formerly of Carolina, is starting; Cooper has made some plays on the ball but in the box, well, he�s no Donavin Darius.� Finally, FS Deon Grant, also a former Panther; the anti-Chris Hope, Grant plays the ball but turns down tackles at a Philip Buchanon-like rate.� The Jags NCB is Terry Cousins, a long time knockabout; Cousins is tough to fool but can be had anyway.���

 

The 2005 Jags presently rank high in pass D stats but that is not because their secondary has dominated.� It is because prize FA Reggie Hayward has improved their pass pressure dramatically.� Hayward has 3.5 of the Jags 12 sacks; running mate Paul Spicer, a jumbo RDE at 295#, also has 3.5.� In pass situations, the Jags are a rush 4, Cover Two team; as always, the beauty part is to throw it on run downs.� In fact, the 2005 Steelers have done so, as tabulated below:

 

Roethlisberger pass stats by down, thru 4 games (nfl.com):

 

Down	PA	Comp	%	YPA	TD	INT	Sacks	Remarks
First	29	21	72.4	15.34	5	0	5	(14) first downs in 29 PA
Second	33	21	63.6	� 9.82	2	0	0	(16) first downs in 33 PA
Third	24	10	41.7	� 6.00	0	0	3	� (7) first downs in 24 PA

 

What to expect:

 

With Darius at SS for the first two games, the Jags allowed 24 points, total.� Without Darius, they�ve allowed 20 in each of the past 3.� In the past two, they�ve been gouged on the ground.� This suggests that the PS should go run heavy early and throughout but that may be a mistake.�

 

The Jags are down-chart statistically against the run but some of that has been tactical, and some situational.�� Tactically: against both the Colts and Bengals, they traded some ground damage to control the air game.� Yes, they gave Edge 138 but doing so, limited Manning to 122. The Bengal RB got 132 rushing but the Jags generally controlled Palmer and the Bengal 3-wide; in H1, when the game was in doubt, Carson Palmer had just 69 yards passing.� Situational: well, the Broncos used misdirection, screens and boots to get out early and then, in classic PS form, ground it out.�

 

Last time, Game 12 2004, the Steelers tried to re-establish Staley but that went nowhere.� The Jag DT held up, Duce did not get off and the Steelers had their worst TOP game of that campaign, 25:23, with just 45 O-snaps.� Roethlisberger was the difference in that contest, running 3/40 and scoring a near perfect 158 QB rating.� However, Roethlisberger began this week on crutches and, at this writing, is doubtful for Sunday.� Except as he can move well enough to protect himself, he should not go, IMO.�

 

To date, Steeler opponents have sold out to stop the run, but been gouged by the vertical air game.� The PSO is #3 in scoring largely because they are #1 in YPA.� On the downside, they�ve done poorly sustaining drives; after a mediocre outing in SD (4/10), they�ve moved to #20 in 3^rd down conversions, at 36.4%.��� With just 183 yards rushing in the past two games, the PSO ground game has to be considered suspect; that is, their #7 ranking looks to be a soft 7.�

 

Sooner or later, Steeler opponents will change tactics, dropping into Cover 2 and playing the run straight up.� This could be the week: Jacksonville has configured to stop the inside run game; they have spent big FA money for Hayward, towards developing the rush 4 in Cover 2.� On the downside, they have one but only one quality cover LB, Peterson; they are slow on the edges and they don�t have 4 starting quality DB, let alone a quality nickel/dime package.� All that suggests: whether with Ben, Maddox, or Batch, the PSO must� utilize their shiny new toys: Parker, Miller and the multi-wide, rather than pounding the gut in repetitive, futile fashion.� They�ll be time for that old standard (v. Cincinnati for example) but this is not that time.�

 

Keys:

 

�         Locate Mike Peterson:� For two games running, key one is not an opponent�s (mediocre) SS; it is a Pro Bowl quality MLB.� Donnie Edwards came near to picking Ben last week; Peterson has better speed and, maybe, better range.�

 

�         Get Parker on the edge:� The PS should have success with counter pitches, especially towards the Jags right where Spicer is slower than his counterpart Hayward, Smith can be swamped and Wright is not the equal of Mathis in run force.� Faneca can be effective on short side pulls; Smith cannot but can seal the DT.� In the best case, the Steelers will run Peterson off, presumably with Miller to the intermediate center seam.� Get Parker on the edge, 2: �see the sideline wide swing routes LT ran, as the primary receiver, against the PSD last Monday; imitate those.

 

�         John Henderson v. Kendall Simmons:� Henderson is long and powerful.� Henderson has 4 TFL and 4 PD this season.� Last year, he was among the League leaders in sacks per interior D-linemen.� This is an overmatch and, in tandem:

 

�         Reggie Hayward v. Max Starks:� Last week, the Bolts got pressure several times by bracketing Starks with two LB, one under and one over.� Typically, Starks took the under, typically, the over got to Roethlisberger.� The Steeler braintrust needs to find a fix as, evidently, Jerame Tuman is no longer capable in a tackle-eligible role.���

 

�         Let Parker settle into the power-I:� Generally, the PSO has opened in twin tight.� However, Tuman has done nothing to retain a starting role.� Parker has, and his speed is the Steelers� best bet against the Jags.� While it is true that Parker is a liability in pass pro, it�s a good guess Kreider can handle that.� It�s a better guess that the PS will need Kreider to handle Peterson in the run game.� The implication is clear: sit Tuman, start Kreider, get Parker in patterns on early downs.�

 

�         Remember, Heath Miller is a receiver:� Too often, when the PSO (inevitably) has gone SG on 3^rd down, Miller has been a boxcar, rather than a receiver.� That is a waste of talent.� Miller did get some balls Monday; he should factor against the Jags too, whether making Mike Peterson cover, or exploiting the Jags very questionable S tandem.�

 

On the other side of the ball:

 

Since their inception, the Jags have swapped out QB, entirely recast their O-line and brought a new wave of big WR in an effort to replace the tiny but mighty Keenan McCardell.� However, the show remains the same, it�s all about Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith.��

 

Smith is not ageless, he�s 36, but he does remain effective.� The Jags have drafted WR R1 in each of the past two seasons (Reggie Williams and Matt Jones).� However, Smith continues to lead the way in receptions, 20; YPC, 18.6 and TD, 4.� One day, Jones may be the guy, but that time hasn�t come.� To date, Jones has just 10 grabs at 8.9 per; questions have been raised regarding his toughness.� Williams, year 2 as an emerging bust, has 18 receptions at 10.9, no TD but 2 fumbles.� Ernest Wilford is perhaps the Jags most dangerous auxiliary receiver : 7 catches, 2 scores;� Wilford is listed as a WR though he has TE height but, unfortunately for the Jags,� TE speed too, barely.� Smith, Wilford and TE George Wrighster have the Jags only air scores; Wrighster is a great leaper, who leads that TE corps with 4 receptions, at 18.3 with 1 score.

 

The Jags rarely use TE in the air game.� Their starter, the immense Kyle Brady, is a PS classic tackle-eligible, but a good one.� Expect to see Brady help rook LT Khalid Barnes, who is making his second start.� The other Jag starters are vets, characteristically good athletes and competitive players: Vince Manuwai, Brad Meester, Chris Naeole and Maurice Williams.� The first three form a capable IOL trio (recall that last season, the PS cross fire ILB blitz got nothing against this trio); Williams too is solid.��

 

Byron Leftwich is a tough guy; this attribute makes him the unquestioned leader on the Jags O-side.� However, Lefty has issues: a long delivery, an occasional Favre-esque throw into coverage and questionable touch in the short game.� In the past, the Jags have protected Leftwich.� In his first two seasons, he was sacked just 44 times while getting off 859 balls, a rate of 4.8%.� In 2005, 13 and 141, a rate of 8.4%;� this week, the presumably dominant PS pass rush can measure themselves v. the Colts, who put Leftwich down 6 times in 35 dropbacks.�

 

Leftwich can win a game but he cannot win a shoot out.� That is because the Jags do not have enough weapons on the receiving end.� Therefore, the job #1, as always,� is to� limit Fred Taylor.� Taylor had a big game against Cincinnati last week, 132 yards on 24 carries but level of competition is a consideration.� The Bengal LB corps is young; they do over-pursue and, as we�ve seen, that�s a problem against a cutback runner of Taylor�s ability.� Then too, the Bengals long have been all-around awful against the run.� Taylor had another good game (statistically) against the lightweight Colts, 16/81, but made no real difference.� Otherwise his per game YPC have been going down: 3.8. 2.6, and 1.8.�

 

Ten months ago, Taylor ripped up two ligaments his left knee.� It�s not likely he�s all the way back.� One indicator may be that he�s been little used as a receiver.� In his prime a 3 catch per game guy, this season, Taylor has 6 in 5 games.� Still, Taylor is their guy; he has 105 carries this season (all other Jag RB 24).� However, it�s doubtful that he is what he once was.� More likely, he�s tracing the arc of an Eddie George; if so, the Jags will ride him down, as did the Titans George.

 

Keys:�

 

�         At his best, Taylor is a RB similar to LT: The Steelers limited Tomlinson last week.� In that aspect, more of the same; the difference is: Taylor is not at his best.

 

�         The Jags do not have a WR who can run anyway from anyone:� Taylor and McFadden, if he plays, have makeup speed.� Excluding Week 3 against the Pats, the Steeler CBs have played fairly aggressively at the LOS.� No reason to change this week.� Any Steeler CB will need help with Smith; however, that leaves one PS starting SS type, Polamalu or Hope, free to do some damage.�

 

�         Test the rook:� Barnes is making his second start at the all-important LT spot.� To date, Porter has dropped in coverage more than he�s rushed.� As the Jags don�t have a receiving TE, no reason that Joe shouldn�t play pass going forward this week.� Best bet: for 30 plays this week, KVO will dominate Barnes.� ��

 

Other:

 

�         The Jag ST are exceptional, especially their coverage units; to date, the PS ST are near the bottom in all aspects.

 

Back of the book:

 

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

 

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

 

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	� 7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22

 

Note:

 

�         Kneeldowns, considered non-plays here, are deleted from run totals.

�         Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�