Steelers by the Numbers

State of the Steelers Offense -- By the Numbers

 

Hindsight is such a great thing isn�t it.� One week its Big Ben�s back and we�re an elite team followed next by it�s time to cut Arians and make wholesale changes on the o-line.� There�s usually no middle ground here.� One thing for sure it�s been an emotional roller coaster ride if you�re a Steelers fan and we still have six weeks to go.

 

Of course, true die-hard fans know the deal.� We�ve seen enough to realize that the 2007 rendition of the Pittsburgh Steelers are a flawed team but certainly with the talent to beat any team in football.� We�ve formed our opinions but can we validate them by looking strictly at the numbers.

 

Well, let�s find out.� To do that I�ll reference the data provided by the stat geeks at Football Outsiders and Stats Inc. to initially review the Offense.

 

Offense:

 

The Running Game

Since the days of Chuck Knoll the Steelers have been known as a run first team.� Establish the run and play smash mouth football.� This year the Steelers rank second in rushing yards but that number is largely inflated by the sheer number of attempts (341) which leads the league.� According to Football Outsiders (FO�s) DVOA rankings, which measure stats on a per-play basis, the Steelers only feature a league average rushing attack. ��This is due primarily to Willie Parks slip in production.�

 

 

While at first glance Willie�s numbers look impressive, you have to look past total yards.� Willie�s numbers have slipped since the bye week with an aggregate of 408 yards at 3.73 yds/carry over the last five. (Note: both Cle and NYJ rank in the bottom five with rushing yards allowed).� Willie has also been stuffed 26 times for a league leading 69 yards lost and his yards per carry have gone down every year since 2004.�

 

Examining Football Outsiders Running Backs statistics Willie ranks 33^rd in total value (DPAR) and slightly worse than that in value per play (DVOA).� He also ranks 35^th in success rate, which measures consistency.� While 2^nd in the league with runs >10yards (24 times) these have not made up for the number of stuffs and 1-2 yard gains.�

 

Najaeh Davenport on the other hand is averaging 5.2yds/carry and ranks third among running backs in DVOA.� That�s a big reversal from a year ago, when Parker was the much more successful back even on a per-play basis.

 

Part of the problem is that the Steelers offensive line has declined from adequate to poor.

 

 

According to FO�s, Adjusted Line yards, (uses mathematic formulas to take all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line) have decreased every year since 2004.�

 

The holes that once sprung Parker are nonexistent this year.� He understandably seems frustrated and appears tentative and is not seeing his holes.� Keep in mind Willie has never been known as a very instinctive back.� Add in the fact that the 2 Tight End/Jumbo sets that Arians so loves have largely failed in generating any push and the blocking fullback on this team has gone the way of the dinosaur in the run game.

 

Davenport, meanwhile, is a bigger back possessing enough quickness to get to the corner.�� Clearly Parker is a better running back than Davenport, but in this case, the backup may be better suited for this offensive line.� Davenport certainly warrants more carries if for nothing else than to keep the �Wheels from falling off Willie� as Tomlin stated earlier in the year.� Parker at his current pace will exceed the magical curse of 370.

 

 

The Passing Game

Let�s set this straight right now, Ben Roethlisberger is playing at an elite level and certainly merits his name mentioned with the likes of Manning and Brady.� No one gets more done with fewer opportunities.�

 

At this point, a large part of the Steelers success appears to consist mostly of Ben nearly getting sacked, then utilizing his �Houdini� like ability to escape the rush and make plays to his downfield receivers.� The Steelers O-Line ranks last in adjusted sack rate according to FO�s.

 

But that�s only part of the story.� If you examine his key stats you�ll see that he�s really matured as a passer and field general in this, his fourth season.� Big Ben is also among the league leaders according to FO�s Quarterback Rankings.

 

It�s truly amazing that Ben ranks in the top 5 in most statistical categories considering he only ranks 18^th in passing attempts. �Note the one area where Ben can improve is his redzone efficiency where he ranks 15^th.� This is due primarily to his lower completion % and two redzone picks he�s thrown. �This along with his tendency to hold onto the ball too long taking needless sacks are the primary areas where he needs to show improvement.���

 

It�s clear that Ben is �The Franchise� and the Steelers Most Valuable Player.�

 

At wide receiver, Santonio Holmes has become a top deep-threat and should be considered the Steelers #1 WR.� After Roethlisberger he is the most important player on offense providing them with the ability to stretch the field and make the yards after catch.� According to FO�s WR Rankings, Holmes ranks 4^th in DPAR and 2^nd in DVOA on a per-play basis.� Holmes also ranks in the top 10 in the following categories:

 

Again what makes this more amazing is Santonio only ranks 46^th in number of receiver targets.� Clearly Arians needs to get the ball to his top playmaker more often.

 

Hines Ward on the other hand is starting to show signs of slowing down.� His completion % and yards per catch have dropped over the last 3 years and he�s missing more games due to injury.� Hines remains a very good player and you cannot measure his impact on the running game with the hellacious blocks he lays on people, but Hines has been supplanted as the Steelers primary receiver.� Hines should remain a very good possession receiver for a few years but clearly Pittsburgh will need to provide Ben with another playmaker on offense.

 

The jury is still out if Nate Washington will be anything more than a 3^rd WR for this team.� According to FO�s Washington has a respectable DVOA but his completion percentage of 50% is horrendous for a wide receiver.� This is nothing new here.� For every acrobatic catch he makes there is the commensurate drop that absolutely kills drives.

 

 

Summary

The Steelers have become way too reliant on Roethlisberger�s immense physical ability.� Typically, under Arians play calling, they all too often run on 1^st and 2^nd down against stacked defenses requiring Roethlisberger to make miracles on third and long.�

 

Entering the game against the New York Jets, the Steelers were a below-average offense on first and second down according to FO�s, but were by far the league�s best offense on third down.� This efficiency was due to putting the ball in Ben�s hands, the Steelers best player. (Ben leads the league in % first downs on 3^rd down attempts at 55%.)���

 

Obviously to expect the Steelers to sustain this kind of 3^rd down efficiency would not be realistic and this eventually caught up to them in the Jets game where they were only 5 for 16 on 3^rd down.

 

Once again the reason for the failed third downs was largely the opponent�s pass rush and an inability to rush the ball putting Ben into 3^rd and long situations.

 

It�s time for fans and Arians to realize that the Steelers are a finesse team.� Sending Willie up the middle for no gain is a recipe for disaster.� The jumbo formations have been ineffective and they don�t maximize the talent on this team.� Where�s the shotgun and spread offense we�ve heard so much about.� How about a flare pass to Willie or a slant to the receivers to alleviate the opponents pass rush.�

 

When you establish the pass first you will set up the run game for success.� Look at the play calling for other successful teams like New England, Dallas and Indianapolis.

 

Interestingly I found an article written by John Clayton titled, �Seattle's pass-first approach likely a sign of things to come� that summarizes this trend.� You can go to the link for details but since committing to the passing game two weeks ago the Seahawks have become a much more consistent running team and much more balanced on offense.�� Look for them to be a major factor in the NFC race coming down the stretch.