So you want to draft a QB?

 

Some draft gurus are projecting that the Steelers will have the opportunity to draft Cal QB Kyle Boller this spring at 1.27.� It goes without saying that this would be a future value type projection as QB rookies rarely make an immediate contribution to any team and, still less, to any contending team.�� That�s not all bad; top prospects at any number of positions may take some time to develop; even a primetime defender like Rod Woodson took a year or two to hit full-stride.� Still, for a team like the PS that has extended a number of 30-pushing vets so to �keep the window open�, spending a 1^st round pick on a two-year non-contributor is not an obvious choice.� If last season the Steelers were a couple of DB from advancing then you�d figure the FO to fill their board with D-backs.� While you could argue that in doing so, they may mortgage the future (selecting, say, an RFR CB in place of their O-side leader, circa 2005), the facts suggest otherwise.

 

The table below displays about fifty active QB by round selected.� Nearly all had more than a couple starts last season; most were considered �the guy� at some point or other.� The bold face type indicates those active QB who have had a Super Bowl appearance; after all, that is the point.� It is notable that five QB drafted in the first two rounds have gone on to the big dance; six drafted thereafter went too.� Give or take, the distribution is similarly even for both Pro Bowl QB and passing leaders.� In this table, (players in parentheses) finished the year as backups.�

 

 

Slot selected or round	Player	Total number
1st overall	(Vinnie Testaverde) (Jeff George) Drew Bledsoe Kerry Collins Peyton Manning (Tim Couch) Michael Vick David Carr	8           Within the last decade, John Elway and Troy Aikman had some success too.
2nd thru 5th overall	Steve McNair Donovan McNabb (Akili Smith) Joey Harrington	4   Notable busts include Heath Shuler, Rich Meier, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith
Remainder of 1st round	Tommy Maddox, mid-20�s. (Trent Dilfer), top 10 Dauntae Culpepper, 1.11 Chad Pennington, 1.18 Patrick Ramsey, deep 20�s	5   In living memory, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino and Steve Young had some success too; among others, Cabe McNown busted.
2nd round	Brett Favre (Kordell Stewart) (Charlie Batch) (Shaun King) (Quincy Carter) Drew Brees	6
3rd round	Chris Chandler (Neil O�Donnell) Jake Plummer Brian Griese (Chris Redmon)	5       A few years previous, Joe Montana won a few.
4th round	Steve Beuerlein Rich Gannon (Danny Wuerffel) Aaron Brooks (Chris Weinke)	5
5th round	Mark Brunell Mike McMahon	2
6th round	Rodney Peete Jeff Blake Jim Miller Matt Hasselbeck Mark Bulger Tom Brady	6         Mark Rypien
7th round	(Gus Frerotte)	1
8th thru Rookie Free Agent	Brad Johnson (Shane Matthews) Trent Green Jay Fiedler Kelly Holcombe Jon Kitna (Kurt Warner) Jeff Garcia Chad Hutchinson	9               Jeff Hostatler

 

Six to twenty years ago, this list would have looked different.� The first round of the QB-deep class of 1983 provided four Super Bowl QB to be; those included Elway, Kelly, Tony Eason and Marino.� Inarguably, Elway, Kelly and Marino were primarily responsible for much of the success their teams enjoyed; considering other QB now retired, you could make that case for Aikman, Young and Montana too.�� Of those six franchise type QB, five were 1^st round picks, including two at 1.1.� Phil Simms and Doug Williams also were former 1^st round picks that won SB in the 80�s but, then again, late-round selections Jeff Hostatler and Mark Rypien did the same with nearly identical editions of those NYG and WashSkins.�

 

The 80�s and 90�s were top end heavy QB-wise but that is not true today.� Now, the franchise types are pretty evenly distributed; for every Manning, there is a Warner, for every McNair a Gannon and for every McNabb a Brooks or Garcia.� Hell, for every Couch there is a Holcombe and for every Bledsoe a Brady.� The point is that you can get a quality QB anywhere though, generally, the learning curve integral to the position does seem to require some apprenticeship, whether with the team of origin (as Pennington), Canadian ball (as Garcia) or the Arena League (as Warner and Maddox).� Then there are those clipboard holders who subsequently proved out after moving on including Brunell, Brooks, Favre, Green, Hasselback and Holcombe.�����

 

Possibly, Boller will be the BPA at 1.27, possibly not; regardless, the Steelers must hope to finish draft day two with the best roster possible.� With their issues in the secondary, we can presume that they�ll be looking at D-backs sooner rather than later, whether on a BPA, BAP or RFR basis.� Given that:

 

The following table displays those D-backs listed as starters on Ourlads depth charts.� The players in boldface are those who may be regarded as lockdown CB or established as playmaking safeties.� Typically, the modifier �established� causes the boldface to skew old; younger players may yet establish but, generally, those men are not highlighted here.

 

Round	Corners	Safeties
1st, top 10,         7 CB, 2 Safeties	Champ Bailey Quentin Jammer Chris McAlister Shawn Springs Duane Starks Troy Vincent Charles Woodson	Roy Williams Rod Woodson (as CB)
1st, remaining                       15 CB, 7 Safeties	Will Allen Fernando Bryant Philip Buchanon Jeff Burris Dale Carter Nate Clements Aaron Glenn Walt Harris Ty Law RJ McQuarters Delthea O�Neal Ahmed Plummer Chad Scott Dewayne Washington Antoine Winfield	Adam Archuleta Donovin Darius Derrick Gibson Tebucky Jones Ed Reed Shaun Williams Jerome Woods
2nd                           17 CB, 17 safeties	Ashley Ambrose William Bartee Gary Baxter Andre Dyson Travis Fisher Corey Fuller Artrell Hawkins Brian Kelly Ken Lucas Sam Madison Ryan McNeil Samari Rolle Fred Smoot Patrick Surtain Bobby Taylor Fred Thomas Jason Webster	Idrees Bashir Rogers Beckett Eric Brown Mike Brown Corey Chavous Brian Dawkins Deon Grant Kim Herring Kenoy Kennedy Lawyer Milloy Mike Minter Mark Roman Tony Parrish Darren Sharper Reggie Tongue Tank Williams Darren Woodson
3rd                     14 CB, 8 safeties	Donny Abraham Ronde Barber Aaron Beasley Ray Buchanon Andre Goodman Eric Kelly David Macklin Daylon McCutcheon Mike McKenzie Will Peterson Derek Ross Denard Walker Aeneas Williams Tyrone Williams	Marques Anderson Cory Bird Corey Harris John Lynch Matt Stevens Greg Wesley Adrian Wilson Coy Wire
4th     4 CB, 5 safeties	David Barrett Ken Irvin Brian Williams	Dexter Jackson Pierson Prioleau Damien Robinson Marcus Robinson Lance Schulters
5th     3 CB, 5 safeties	Jerry Azumah Marco Coleman Jason Craft	Lee Flowers Arturo Freeman Sam Garnes Rodney Harrison Sam Shade
6th   2 CB, 3 safeties	Chris Cash Mario Edwards	Brent Alexander Marquand Manual Izell Reese
7th   1 CB, 4 safeties	Eric Warfield	Mike Green Brock Marion Gerald McBurrows Marlon McCree
FA or 8th and beyond                     3 CB, 13 safeties.	Terry Cousin Reggie Howard Otis Smith	Jay Bellamy Blaine Bishop Jack Brewer Zach Bronson Keion Carpenter Robert Griffith Sammy Knight Kwame Lassiter Earl Little Anthony Mitchell Omar Stoutmire David Terrell Brian Walker

 

 

Observations:

 

• QB can be found anywhere in the draft, or via various FA routes.

 

• Broadly, CB can be found in the first three rounds only, after that, not at all.� Given that the Steelers are drafting at the bottom of each frame, the CB the FO will be looking at are in the range of those found in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds above.� The quality in the 2^nd (Steeler 1^st) is roughly split between smaller, swift CB and CB/FS types (as Gary Baxter) but the quality in the 3^rd (Steeler 2^nd) is with smaller, quick CB.� It is worth noting that there are about as many lockdown types shown above in the 2^nd frame as in the (true) first.

 

• (34) starting safeties were taken from the 1^st through the 3^rd; (30) starting safeties were picked up thereafter. On balance, the distribution at the safety position is similar to that at QB.� Generally, the second day players are in-the-box type; exceptions to that include Schulters, Lassiter, Knight and McCree, FS who have shown the ability to make plays on the ball despite an absence of any draft-worthy measurables.�

 

In the � Brief History�� we looked closely at the 2000 draft.� Coincidentally, that was the last year in which the Steelers drafted both a QB and a CB.� Those players were Tee Martin and Hank Poteat; unfortunately, both have busted.� Now, this seems to put the lie to the notion of drafting a small CB in the 3^rd and a developmental QB later but, dividing that class by the (4) QB who have developed as starters, consider:

 

Chad Pennington was drafted 1.18.� Arguably, Pennington has shown as the BPA at that point in the draft, though Keith Bullock (1.30) must have his backers.� Regardless, the Steelers would have had to pass on Plax to take Pennington and few here now would make that deal.� For what it�s worth, only (1) DB was drafted between Spike and Pennington; that man was Delthea O�Neal (1.15).

 

Twelve D-backs were drafted between Pennington and Chris Redman @ 3.75; of those, eight have developed as starters.� Redman was the 3^rd QB taken; the 2^nd, Giovanni Carmazzi busted miserably.

 

Eighteen D-backs were drafted between Redman and Mark Bulger @ 6.168; of those, five have developed as starters.� Poteat was in that range and, obviously, Poteat has not beaten the odds; however, David Macklin and David Barrett, both smallish CB drafted after Poteat, have.� Bulger was the 5^th QB taken; unfortunately, the Steelers drafted the 4^th QB, Tee Martin, five spots forward at 5.163.

 

Tom Brady was drafted @ 6.199; of six D-backs were taken in the range between Bugler and Brady, one (Mario Edwards) has developed as a starter.� Brady was the 7^th QB drafted, after Spergon Wynn and just before Todd Husak.� After Brady, (3) QB and (5) D-backs were selected; none have developed as starters although one, Tim Rattay, quickly surpassed Carmazzi on the 49er�s depth chart.

 

�        The period between Pennington and Redman describes the range in which the Steelers will make their first two picks; in 2000, 8/12 D-backs drafted there developed as starters.� In the same period, (1) of (2) QB did so.

 

• The period between Redman and Brady describes the range in which the Steelers will make their next four picks; in 2000, 6/24 D-backs drafted there developed as starters.� In the same period, 2/4 QB did so.�

 

• Broadly, analysis of the class of 2000 confirms the observation section above.� Starting QB were found in the 1st, 3^rd and 6^th rounds in 2000; this approaches the distribution in the opening table.� 8/12 D-backs taken from the late 1^st to mid-3^rd developed as starters; of the remaining 29 drafted, at the position, only 6 developed.

 

Summary:

 

• The D-back table (second above) says �go early at CB or don�t go at all.�

 

• The uncertainty factors in projecting performance from prospects (as shown in the 8/12 2000 rate above) suggests doubling up; an FO may miss with any given D-back but is unlikely to miss twice, at least not in the 27-59 range.���