On the Wire:
The Philadelphia Eagle FO continues to demonstrate their mastery of cap realities in the league today.� Consistently, the Eagles have entered the off-season 8-12M under; as of 28 February, they were 15.2M below the 2003 ceiling.� They have accomplished this by making the moves required to keep in front of those limiting curves pinching performance against advancing age for every player on their roster, from the least to most high profile.
Friday night, Philly moved CB Al Harris and their own 4th round pick to the Pack in exchange for that team�s 2nd round selection this April.� Harris has been one of the better nickels in the league; he is a starting caliber player, a fact that drove this deal.� Harris is 28, he may be able to look ahead to two to four years as a starter but, stuck behind Vincent and Taylor in Philly, he had no real prospect there.�� The Pack was screwed blue and tattooed on the corners; starter Ty Williams opted out and Todd McBride, their 3rd corner last season but no kind of player, had hit the bricks too.� Their remaining backups, Jue and Bryan Westbrook are, variously, unproven or damaged.� Al Harris is a big CB who will be an upgrade from Williams as a starter; he will give GB some kind of chance to defend Randy Moss and, as such, constitutes a valuable addition to the pride of Wisconsin.�
With or without Big Al, Philly is good to go; last spring, they drafted two CB (Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown) as well as SS Michael Lewis.� Sheppard was their 1st round pick; Lewis and Brown went back-to-back in round two, just ahead of the Steelers� second selection, ARE.� As is well known, the Eagle secondary long has been as strong as any in the league; however, aside from Harris, Troy Vincent is getting along too.� If not now, then soon, Vincent will be let go and the Eagles will move on under the expectation that, while the odds do not favor all three of their 2002 DB class emerging as starters, those do project that two will make that grade.
Moving Harris now, the Eagles shed some immediate cap obligation and, simultaneously, put themselves in an identical position draft-wise to 2002; that is, one late 1st, two late 2nd.� Another recurring theme is the way that the Eagles handle their big dollar FA.� Last year, Philly franchised MLB Jeremiah Trotter then withdrew that designation and saw JT trot off to Washington.� Nonplussed, the Eagles reached into the deep (and deepening) pool of FA LB to cobble together a rotation consisting of Levon Kirkland and their own Barry Gardner.� Now, Hugh Douglas seems to be on the way out even though, as was true of Trotter, Douglas has been, and may remain for a time, a Pro Bowl level player.� However, the decision with Douglas is much easier; that man is a +30, Contract 3 player; if not now then soon, his cap cost will far outstrip his performance.� Douglas was, but is not now, a player around whom one might build; if Philly let Trotter go and contended anyway, we can presume that, unless he�s willing to return at a below market rate, the Eagles will let Douglas ride on too.
From this, we may take up to five points:
- Draft ahead of need:� Last year, the Eagles needed a MLB, a RB (what with Staley�s 2001 injury) and a WR (what with Freddy Mitchell�s flop).� However, looking ahead, Philly picked the three DB listed previously since, down the road, age surely would end the reign of Vincent, Harris and the rest.
- Feed the hungry bee:� The Eagles took three shots to land two DB.� Maybe, all three make it; in that case, Philly will be way ahead of the game.� The odds say not, typically, we will see about 25% busts, or sub-par contributors, over the first couple rounds.� If engaged in unit fixing, teams are well advised to pick one more prospect than is their immediate need.�
- Fill
in with FA:� Kirkland and SS
Blaine Bishop for example; a few years previous, ROT Jon Runyan.� It is worth noting that the FA pool is
deep at some positions (this year and last, LB and, this year, FB too)
while quality vets are absent at other spots (this year, CB and, now, OT).
- Do not
overspend, especially on Contract 3 types: Dead money, that obligation
to players who are no longer on the roster, hobbles most teams.� The likelihood that dead money shall
accrue rises sharply with any player�s age.� The Eagles are dead cash light for a reason; typically, the
Steelers are not, and we all know why.
- Pay
now and save:� The Eagles
extended Trotter before his Contract 1 UFA season; as a result, they got a
Pro Bowl MLB, circa 2000-01, for short money.� The Steelers have had some success in this area too; years
ago they extended Earl Holmes early and got a stalwart, if not PB, stuffer
on the cheap.� In 2001, they
extended Hines Ward at the dawn of his C$1 UFA season and, well, we know
the result.� Contrasting with that,
in 1996, the old regime passed on extending Chad Brown early; instead,
Greg Lloyd got Contract 3 and, unsurprisingly, took the pipe.
Applied to the Steelers� current state:
- Future need may be identified simply by reviewing the cap cost lists furnished in the twin Overviews.� On the D-side, the three players at the top are Washington, Scott and Gildon; with Stewart gone, Hartings, Bettis, Faneca and Breuner lead the offensive parade.� If we consider Simmons as Hartings� true heir, then the FO did get ahead of that need in 2002. �Therefore, the prime replacement items remaining are: DB, OLB (4-3 rush DE), RB and TE.�
- Since two DB are on that list, the secondary must be the unit of emphasis.� �This is dead easy; Occam�s Razor denotes the logical postulate claiming that entities should not be multiplied needlessly.� Generally, that is applied to mean that the simplest of two or more competing theories is preferable and that an explanation for unknown phenomena should be attempted from what is already known.�� We know that the Steeler offense, with their back-up TE and RB, scored 30 or more points in 4 of their final 5 games; we know that the Steeler defense allowed 30 points or more in their final 3 games because their pass defense surrendered over 300 yards in each of those.� It follows that the solution to the unknown (how might the Steelers reach the SB?) may begin in the defensive backfield.���
- Bound to their multiple Contract 3 burdens, the Steelers� are cap-strapped; that so, they�ll be dumpster diving back in the alley behind the FA buffet this year.� Around the league, the lowest paid positions are TE on the O-side, and safety, among all defenders.� Unsurprisingly, the Steelers have extended their own Jerame Tuman and are hosting several vet safeties from elsewhere around the league.� That�s the right approach and, contrary to many, I believe the Steelers did a reasonably prudent deal with Tuman.� That contract is backend loaded; next year, his salary will be just 530K and with a 200K bonus pro-ration his cap cost will be only 730K.� That is less than 1% of the total cap, a figure that could hardly be described as lavish.� As should be true, Tuman will be the lowest paid starter on the O-side and he, or Kendrell Bell, will be the lowest paid starter on the team.� Also, the Steelers have re-upped Matt Cushing for 2003 only, at about 450K or little above the rookie minimum.�� As for the safeties:
|
Player |
Age |
Height |
Weight |
Remarks |
|
Eric Brown |
28 |
6-1 |
210 |
67 starts in 5 seasons with
Denver and Houston. Career: 8 INT, 31 PD and 340 T.� More of a SS type. |
|
Anthony Dorsett |
29 |
5-11 |
205 |
40 starts in 7 seasons for
the Titans and Raiders. Career: 3 INT, 21 PD; is by no means a quality
starter. |
|
Arturo Freeman |
27 |
6-0 |
198 |
20 starts in 3 seasons for
the Dolphins.� Career:� 1 INT, 11 PD.� RFA who would cost a 5th round pick; dubious value. |
|
Cory Hall |
26 |
6-0 |
213 |
47 starts in 4 seasons;
played both FS and SS for Cincinnati.�
Probably expendable with Lamont Thompson and Marquand Manual in Bengal
land.� Hall is a good athlete; his
Combine in �99 was similar to Hope�s of 2002 and, say, that of Colin Branch
this year. However, he is no ballhawk, having just 3 INT and 9 PD in his
career |
|
Dexter Jackson |
25 |
6-1 |
203 |
31 starts in 4 years with
the Bucs though with just 7 INT and 14 PD.�
Made a mint in the Super Bowl reminding many of Larry Brown who made big
money but little subsequent impact from two SB picks on passes to his numbers.
In contrast, Jackson actually broke on the ball to convert his two (soon to
be) high digit picks. |
|
Greg Wesley |
26 |
6-2 |
203 |
45 starts in 3 years with
the Chiefs.� Career: 10 INT, 22 PD and
232T.� An RFA who would cost the
Steelers� their # 3, at minimum. |
- The Steelers� are against the 2003 cap because their roster is overloaded with under-performing Contract 3 types.� That includes Bettis, Breuner, Gildon and Washington; those are 4 of the 7 highest paid players on the team and, without exception, those men played below expectation last season.� Brent Alexander is another C$3 type and while he cost little in 2002, he was worth less, or if you prefer, worthless.
- The pay now and save postulate should come into effect following the 2003 season but to accomplish this, the FO has work to do now.� As noted in the O-side Overview, both Spike and Contact have contracts due to expire following the 2004 season.� At least one of those players should be extended pre-2004, preferably both since that would be the long-term savings though it is possible to franchise one for 2005.� Regardless, while the Steelers can�t get into Philly-type cap shape now, they can begin to get there for 2004 simply by cutting both Breuner and Bettis before June 1, 2003.� While that would net only a microscopic savings of 500K to the 2003 cap, it would open 7.75M for 2004.� Figure 2003 as Washington�s last in B&G and now you�re headed to the Eagle�s Lair. For the past two seasons, the PS has won consistently without the Bus and without Breuner either; it is not likely they could do so shorn of Contact and/or Spike.� In fact, we saw the effects of Bell�s absence last year; lacking Contact, the Steelers were 2-3 in the regular season and (effectively) 0-1 in the playoffs. You may recall that over the past two regular seasons, the PS has gone 7-1 absent Breuner and 7-1-1 absent Bettis.� Contract 2 vs. Contract 3; that�s Bell, Burress and (likely) both 2003 starting OT for the long-term or the Bus and Breuner for a season more.� It is not a difficult choice.
Elsewhere on the wire:
- The Redskins are loading up in FA on the interior O-line.� Additionally, they dealt for RB Trung Candidate making it highly unlikely that Larry Johnson will be rejoining Arrington in Snydertown.� Closer to home, this tends to push stud OG/OT Eric Steinbach towards the Browns.
- �Desperate to rebuild their O-line, the Rams have picked up OC Dave Wohlbaugh and OG Dave Loverne.� Wohly centered Cleveland�s line, one of the worst in football.� Loverne is one of 14 players whom the Skins have started at one guard spot or the other over the past two years; in that term, the Skin interior has been abysmal.� Off that, the Ram O-line doesn�t figure to improve much; however, these moves, combined with their loss of Dre Bly (with Dexter McCleon to follow), strongly suggest that St. Louis will be looking at CB in either round 1 or 2.��
- With Orlando Pace and Walter Jones getting franchise tags, with Hotel Adams and Luke Pettigout getting big deals to stay at home in Dallas and NY respectively, it is unsurprising that some team has over paid for Wayne Gandy.� However, that New Orleans (with Kyle Turley on-board) was the culprit is something of a surprise.� Miami was said to be the front-runner but the Dolphins came up about an M/year short and now, I guess, it�s Brockmeyer or bust in Florida.� As for Gandy, well, he did a solid job here both on the field and off; in the inflated currency endemic to sport today, he did earn his millions.� However, I doubt he�ll return the Saints� investment, at least not past 2004.
- OLB Jeff Posey left Houston to sign a 4-year deal with Buffalo at around 6M.� Posey got in the mix in Houston after the Texans were unable to acquire Jason Gildon whom, it was said, they so highly coveted.� Then a lightly regarded 4-year vet, Posey picked up 8.5 sacks in 9 starts in Houston while playing for the vet minimum.� Simultaneously, Gildon delivered 9 sacks in 16 starts in the first year of his new monster C$3 deal.���