2005 Game 8 Preview
In the Reign of Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 18-1 in the regular season, with the Franchise starting, but just 2-2 otherwise. On the chalk, they are fortunate in drawing the 1-6 Packers Sunday but in League Parity, where matchups mandate, not so much. As we�ll see, these teams fit weakness on weakness and strength to strength.
1-6 isn�t good but it is worth noting that Green Bay has been in most tilts, having lost those six by: 14, 2, 1, 3, 3 and 7 points. In their solo win, they dismantled the Saints, 52-3. Cumulatively, the Packers have out-scored and out-gained their opposition. However, they�ve generally found a way to lose.
Well, mainly, they�ve found one way to lose and stuck with that. On the season, Green Bay is on the wrong side in takeways, 7 down thru 7 games. One per game isn�t awful but that�s not the real story. Toss out two tilts against the homeless Saints (Pack +5 in takes) and Crew Love Boat (Pack +1) and Green Bay falls to (-13) over 5 games. That�s a losing margin. In sum:
� Green Bay has plumbed the Valley of Death, (-2) in takes, 4 times in 7 games. That includes 3, 2, 3, and 4 down v. Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.
There are other aspects: Mike Sherman is one of the genuinely awful in-game managers in all of football history. Then too, the Green Bay defense draws inopportune penalties in a clockwork fashion. Even in a couple even games, turnover-wise, the Pack has created other ways to lose. The short form is: the Steelers don�t have to win this game; with their caretaker QB, Charlie Batch, they just to avoid losing it. Commencing with that unit to be opposing Chuck from Homestead.
D-side comparison, Green Bay and Pittsburgh:
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
v. TOP |
Rush YPC |
Pass YPA |
v. QB Rating |
Sacks |
Takes |
3rd down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
16.3 (5th) |
299.2 (8th) |
30:17 |
3.4 |
6.69 (13th) |
72.7 (11th) |
22 |
16 |
43.4% (29th) |
504 |
Pack |
19.9 (T-16th) |
308.3 (12th) |
30:05 |
3.4 |
7.34 (T-22) |
96.2 (27th) |
17 |
9 |
41.3% |
442 |
Notes:
- The margin is slight; 3.6 points per game, a FG plus, is the difference between 5th and 16th.
- In many areas, the teams are similar. The run game numbers are identical. However, the Pack is well down in defending the pass.
Packer D-personnel:
Jim Bates, long time D-coordinator in Miami, is in his first year in Green Bay. Bates� Fin teams featured some stout stuffing tandem of DT, quality rushers at DE, a MLB with some range, a pair of press CB, all operating under the umbrella provided by the safeties in Cover 2. In Green Bay, some of those pieces are in place, but a couple key ingredients are missing.
The Pack DTs are mainly UDFA or Day 2 picks but most can play the run. Grady Jackson is a stout NT, although at this point he�s good for (maybe) 35 snaps per game. Colin Cole backs up; Cole is a prospect I�d liked late in the 2003 draft but one who fell out when he (reportedly) pissed hot. Cullen Jenkins starts at UT; brother of Kris, this Jenkins is smaller (290#) but athletic and active. His backup, Corey Williams, R6 2004, can press the pocket. Williams will line up at DE too.
LDE Aaron Kampman is a solid pro. Per Football Outsiders, the Green Bay D is #1 v. runs right; Kampman, and SOLB (to date) Paris Lenon, are largely responsible. RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is perennially among the League�s sack leaders but is worthless in the run game; Football Outsiders has the Pack #27 v. runs to this side.
KGB�s one-dimensional game puts the onus on the Pack LB corps, who are chase players, rather than stout at the POA. ROLB Robert Thomas washed out in St. Louis; he�s questionable with a shoulder Sunday. Paris Lenon (UDFA) may start there; if so, the Pack�s run D to that side figures to improve. SOLB Nail Diggs may return, this from his second meniscus tear of this 2005 season. Diggs will be spotted, if he plays at all, so Brady Poppinga, a 26 year-old rookie out of BYU, could get a go. BYU runs a 3-3-5; there, OLB play a role similar to that in the PS 3-4, which is to say Poppinga can rush the passer.
All those players are on the small side, relatively, and the same is true for MLB Nick Barnett. A contender for D-side ROY in 2003, Barnett is a quality Cover 2 MLB, much in the Mike Peterson mode. Like all the Pack LB, he is effective in run blitz but not straight up. This is not a LB corps that can stack and shed.
Upfront, the Pack defense is good enough. They can pressure the passer and, although somewhat susceptible to the grind game, their speed at LB does limit big plays. With one exception, the Pack�s problems are behind.
LCB Al Harris is a quality player capable of taking any WR out of any game. For example, Harris locked up Chad Johnson last week. However, the rest of the Pack DBs are suspects. RCB Ahmad Carroll is fast, aggressive and athletic; he has good hands to make an interception but he is a PI machine with no rival this side of Quentin Jammer. Additionally, Carroll is a liability in run force as, amazingly, is SS Mark Roman. By way of context, Roman was not good enough in run support to stick with the Bengals. Rookie FS Nick Collins is an exceptional athlete with good size and an aggressive disposition but he does have issues with route recognition.
What to expect:
If Roethlisberger were available, the PS would pass early and often, exploiting a highly suspect Pack secondary. Standard strategy would obtain: pass to score and, throughout H2, run to win. However, Roethlisberger is not available. Instead, Charlie Batch will get his first start since the year Y2K and 1. Batch has seen little action since then; now, like a strumpet cloistered, he (effectively) has regained his (NFL) cherry. The question for Sunday: will we see a virgin sacrifice?
Certainly, that will be Bates� ideal. Expect the Pack to be all-in v. the run. It�s a good guess that their LB will run blitz on (nearly) every down. Alternatively: considering that Green Bay has (9) D-linemen, and all are healthy; against 6 LB, with 2 on the injury report, Coach Bates may run a quantity of 5-man fronts.
Either way, Bates will put the game in Batch�s hands. Facing 11 up tight, the Steelers could go over the top. However, there is a question whether Batch has the arm strength to accomplish that. Then too, from a promising start, the Steeler vertical game has shriveled, even with Roethlisberger on the trigger. By the numbers:
2005 Steelers� #3-5 receivers, thru 7 games:
|
|
First 4 games |
Last 3 games |
|
Randle-El |
10 receptions, 270 yards, 27.0 YPC |
6 receptions, 58 yards, 9.67 YPC |
|
Wilson |
7 receptions, 140 yards, 20.0YPC |
1 reception, 11 yards |
|
Morgan |
1 reception, 9 yards |
4 receptions, 68 yards, 17.0 YPC |
Both Ward and Miller are quality possession receivers but the Steelers do need a vertical threat. It is increasingly evident ARE is not the guy. Cedrick Wilson, playing with a broken wrist, is not the guy either. That leaves, not out of any merit but by process of elimination, Quincy Morgan.
There are other aspects to the pass game: the PS entered the season hoping to diversify their pass O but have failed to do so. The Steelers have 12 passing TD; of those, Ward and Miller have 11 TD receptions. The same pair has 53% of all receptions. In contrast, the 2004 NE Pats, that paradigm of ball distribution, whose top 3 receivers combined for 135 grabs, just 46%. Here, the top 3 receivers (adding in ARE) have 71% of all 2005 PS receptions. NE 2004? Their top 5 receivers didn�t get to 71%.
Previously, the PS pass game was overspecialized, with Burress being the designated (and sole) deep threat. Passing off Plax last winter, the PS planned to interchange a variety of receivers, under and over. To date, that has not panned out. Until it does, the 2005 PS will not have a championship quality pass O, with Roethlisberger, or without.
Of course, all that is irrelevant unless Green Bay can succeed in their job #1, stopping the run. Can they? Well, they have limited (nearly) all comers, so far. However, they�ve played few powerful run aggregates. See:
2005 Green Bay Run D performance:
|
Team |
Rush O rank, YPG |
Feature RB Yards/trips |
Remarks |
|
Detroit |
22nd |
Kevin Jones 87/25 |
Pack disregarded Harrington, focusing on KJ. |
|
Cleveland |
25th |
Reuben Droughns 50/20 |
Excluding 2 catch and run TD, Pack D dominated the Browns. |
|
Tampa Bay |
11th |
Cadillac Williams 158/37 |
Cadillac blew out in that game. In 4 tilts since, 33 yards on 24 trips, with two DNP. |
|
Carolina |
24th |
Stephen Davis 51/19 |
|
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New Orleans |
15th |
Deuce McAlister 31/11 |
Saints TO eliminated their run game. |
|
Minnesota |
27th |
Mwelde Moore 45/13 |
Culpepper had another 41 yards rushing on scrambles. As usual, the Vikes made no attempt to establish run basics. |
|
Cincinnati |
17th |
Rudi Johnson 72/22 |
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Pittsburgh |
5th |
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It is on the PS O-line to win Sunday. So far this season, the results have been mixed. The Steeler run game was successful v. Tennessee, Houston and Cincinnati but stuffed by New England, San Diego and Jacksonville. Baltimore? Well, that�s a draw, I guess. Willie Parker did run effectively in H1 but for reasons most clear to Coach Bill, the PS elected to win that one in the air. Returning to Sunday�s tilt:
Keys v. Green Bay D:
- Run left: KGB is bad against the run; OLB Robert Thomas is a chase player, not at all stout at the POA and Ahmad Carroll turns down tackles. The Pack can be had left. The problem is: the Steelers have been ineffective running to that side this season. Parker has broken his big runs right, where the Pack run D is stout.
- Make Grady Jackson rush the passer: The converse of: make KGB play the run. Of course, that means throw on run downs. For the most part, as Jackson goes, so goes the Pack run D. Late, the PS could have some success if Grady is gassed; early, not so much.
- In the underneath pass game, account for Nick Barnett: Batch hasn�t seen game speed in 4 +seasons. The Pack will pressure to take away the deep game (such as it is here) and to force errors in the underneath. It�s on Batch to recognize; it�s on Batch to manage this game.
On the other side of the ball:
Last winter, Green Bay took some hits in free agency. They�ve taken some on the field too. A partial list:
� For years, the Pack�s strength resided with their IOL: LG Mike Wahle, OC Mike Flanagan and RG Marco Rivera. This season: Wahle is with Carolina; Flanagan is hobbled with a sports hernia and Rivera is in Dallas. The new guys, LG Adrian Klemm, OC Scott Wells and rook RG William Whitticker, have not played to the standard set here.
� # 1 RB Ahmad Green is out for the year. #2 RB Najeh Davenport is out for the year. #3 RB Tony Fisher starts; Fisher is averaging 3.1 YPC. #4 RB ReShard Lee backs up; Lee is averaging 1.4 YPC.
� #1 WR Javon Walker is out for the year. #2 WR Robert Ferguson didn't play last week and is doubtful this. R2 rook, #4 WR and KR Terrence Murphy is out for the year. The Pack has one quality WR remaining, Donald Driver.
O-side Comparison, Green Bay and Pittsburgh
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
TOP |
Rush YPC |
Pass YPA |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
Turnovers |
3rd down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
24.1 (9th) |
310.7 (23rd) |
29:43 |
131.3 (5th) |
8.41 (1st) |
96.3 (5th) |
13 |
10 |
31.6 (29th) |
370 |
Pack |
22.6 (T-15th) |
330.9 (14th) |
29:55 |
72.9 (30th) |
7.09 (14th) |
85.8 (15th) |
9 (2nd) |
16 (T-24th) |
46.0 (3rd) |
407 |
Notes:
- Green Bay has no run game at all.
- The Green Bay pass O is mediocre in most aspects; however, they do an exceptional job protecting their QB. They do not max protect; nor, despite some blather at the Steelers� official site, have many 2005 PS opponents. They haven�t had too as, despite some impressive sack figures, the PS pass rush has been fugitive most of this season.
As noted in the opening section, the match between the PSO and Green Bay D pits weakness on weakness and strength on strength. On this side of the ball, the opposite is so:
- The PSD is strong against the run, but Green Bay does not run the ball.
- The PSD is a miserable #29 in 3rd down conversions allowed; the Green Bay O is a solid #3 in 3rd downs converted.
- The PSD is T-6th in takeaways; the Green Bay O is T-24th in giveaways.
What to expect:
Green Bay will spread the field, operating a dink and dunk pass game similar to that which plagued the PS of 2002. To do so, the Pack, depleted at WR, will flex TE Bubba Franks and Donald Lee; both have some size and Lee has good speed. Antonio Chatham is a slot guy. Donald Driver is the go-to guy. Driver has some similarities with Derrick Mason; more quick than fast, he is a solid vet.
Frank will chip and leak, as will Tony Fisher, when he�s in the game. But max protect? No, there�s no need; the PS OLB have yet to consistently beat solo blocking; KVO is playing with one arm and the backup PS DE haven�t gotten it done on any consistent basis. The Pack figure to win the protection game on the edges; inside, they are vulnerable but the spread eliminates the Steelers� cross-fire ILB blitz simply by taking one ILB out of the game.
Of course, there is a difference between the PS DB of 2002 and those of 2005. This secondary has speed; that one did not. On form, the 2005 PS DB should combat the spread successfully and, for the most part, that has played out. However, there have been a couple exceptions. See:
PSD 3rd down performance, thru 7 games:
|
|
3rd & 1 -3 |
3rd & 4-5 |
3rd & 6 to 9 |
3rd & 10 or more |
Remarks |
First 3 games |
1/12 |
5/6 |
4/10 |
10/11 |
Steelers were excellent on 3rd & long; faced 31% 3rd and short. |
|
v. San Diego |
1/2 |
1/3 |
3/5 |
2/2 |
San Diego converted 5/12 |
|
v. Jacksonville |
3/5 |
2/4 |
5/6 |
2/4 |
Jags converted only 7/19 overall but 2/4 3rd and long; had another by penalty. |
|
v. Cincinnati |
1/3 |
|
5/5 |
2/3 |
Cincinnati converted just 3/11; that is the PSD�s best performance on the season |
|
v. Baltimore |
2/6 |
1/1 |
6/8 |
0/3 |
Ravens converted 50% overall including 100% 3rd and 10 or more |
Total: games 4-7 |
7/16 |
4/8 |
19/24 |
6/12 |
Overall, the Steelers were abysmal on 3rd and long; however, that�s due to poor performances v. the Jags and Ravens. |
|
Acceptable stop rate |
10% |
NF |
67% |
90% |
Acceptable rates per Tim Lewis, circa 2003. |
PSD season totals |
8/28 28.6% |
9/14 64.2% |
23/34 67.6% |
16/23 69.5% |
It is a credit to the early down D that 57 of 99 PSD 3rd downs ops have been 3rd & 6 or greater. |
The Steelers are (-5) in the 3rd and +10 category; all five coming v. Jacksonville and Baltimore. Pull those out and, overall, the PSD would rise from 29th to ~20th. That�s not good, but it is better. Then:
Keys:
� Coverage: Pressure isn�t going to get it. The Pack doesn�t allow pressure and, despite the numbers, the PSD hasn�t generated pressure consistently. The PS CB can win on the edges, on-man; in zone, they cannot. Sunday, the Steelers� scheme of choice ought be single high-man out, with Polamalu roaming. Favre will force it into coverage. He has throughout his career. The difference is, or may be, at this point he seems to have lost about a yard off his fastball. Delthea O'Neal made two picks last week, playing outside technique and jumping under. In years past, Favre would have gotten the ball by him. Not now.
Conclusion:
Turnovers figure to decide it. Charlie Batch hasn�t seen game speed in sometime. It figures Coach Cowher will protect him, matching strength, the PS run, v. strength, the Pack run D. Conversely, Green Bay will pass to get out early, forcing the PS to come back with Charlie winging it. The Packs' pass-heavy strategy will give the PSD early opportunities to get the ball, and to get the game in hand. If they do so, it could be over early. If not, not.
Back of the book:
Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:
2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:
|
|
First Half |
Second Half |
Final | ||||||
|
|
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Score |
|
v. Titans |
16 |
9 |
20-7 |
25 |
2 |
14-0 |
41 |
11 |
34-7 |
|
@ Texans |
15 |
16 |
20-0 |
17 |
6 |
7-7 |
32 |
22 |
27-7 |
|
v. Patriots |
11 |
12 |
10-7 |
10 |
21 |
10-16 |
21 |
33 |
20-23 |
|
@ Chargers |
18 |
16 |
14-7 |
13 |
12 |
10-15 |
31 |
28 |
24-22 |
|
v. Jaguars |
11 |
14 |
14-10 |
14 OT: 3 |
17 OT: 2 |
3-7 0-6 |
28 |
33 |
17-23 |
|
@Bengals |
14 |
9 |
7-6 |
29 |
6 |
20-7 |
43 |
15 |
27-13 |
|
v. Ravens |
13 |
19 |
10-10 |
13 |
15 |
10-9 |
26 |
34 |
20-19 |
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Note:
� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.
� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.