Stillers @ Jags Pregame Analysis (Game #2, @ Jacksonville)

Stillers @ Jags Pregame Analysis (Game #2, @ Jacksonville)

 

The 1-0 Stillers travel to Florida to meet the 1-0 Jaguars in a rugged matchup that could be a preview of a January playoff tilt.� The Stillers knocked off the Dolphs last week, while the Jags disposed of the Dallas Cryboys.� Last season, these teams met in a memorable tilt that ended in OT when Mommy Maddox turned the ball over for the 4th time, which was an INT that was returned for a game-winning TD.� For the second consecutive week, Stiller fans will be subjected to gawdawful shades of blue; aqua last week versus Miami, and teal (teal?!!) this week with the Jagoffs.�

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* When the Jags have the ball, they'll be led by QB Byron Leftwich.�� Byron started off slowly last week, which caused a smattering of boos among the Jagoff fans.� He collected himself and led the Jags to two 2H scores.� Leftwich's mobility is a concern, although the Stillers did a nice job of hemming in Culpepper last week.� Byron has a bizarre throwing motion, in which he drops the ball near his waist before cocking and throwing.� It should be interesting to see if the ballhawking Stiller defense can read and pounce on a few Leftwich passes.� At times, Byron looked tentative going downfield last week, often electing for the safer dumpoff.�

Handling the rushing chores is the ol' reliable vet, Freddie Taylor.�� Freddie ain't fast anymore -- really, he never was -- and the yards he gains nowadays are primarily off his still-effective cutback abilities.� He can't get to the corner and turn it; he's reliant upon cutback lanes and an over pursuing defense.� Mo Jones-Drew, the diminutive rookie from UCLA, chips in as a change of pace back and a scatback in the short passing game.� Burly backup LaBrandon Toefield stubbed his toe a bit last week, rushing for minus-5 yards on 3 carries.� The Jags will often go with a 1-back team set, but at times will use Derrick Wimbush at FB.� Greg Jones would have done the FB chores, but was lost for the season with a preseason knee injury.�

 

Ageless Jimmy Smith has finally retired, but frankly, this WR gang is more dangerous than last year's version.� The Jag WR corps is big, strong, and athletic, perhaps the biggest, strongest, and most athletic corps in the conference.� Leading the way is 2nd-year man Matt Jones, a college QB at Arkansas that has now shown he's far more developed and polished than his rookie campaign.� At 6'-6", Jones is strong and athletic enough to beat virtually any DB on the downfield lob, yet he's deceptively quick and very fast.� Jones is particularly adept on the deep stop and the underthrown lob, both of which he's able to use his size to outmuscle and out-position the smaller DB.� Reggie Williams and Ernie Wilford both are "only" 6'-4", and they possess the size and athleticism that makes smaller DBs stay away at night.� Williams surprisingly had no TD catches last season, but he hit paydirt last week, hauling in a short lob from 6 yards out.� Chad Owens serves as a backup to the "Big 3".�

 

Old greybeard Kyle Brady is still the starting TE, although Geo Wrightster sees a fair amount of PT.� At this point of his career, Brady is a checkdown option in the short passing game and a strong blocker.� Wrightster isn't much more of a dangerous threat, either.� Highly touted rookie TE Mercedes "Benz" Lewis waits in the wings.� Lewis, another 6-foot-sixer, watched in street clothes last week, but could be active if healthy.� Clearly, he is the future at TE for this ballclub and has the size and athleticism to be an Antonio Gates/Tony Gonzo type of dominant TE in the passing game.�

 

The O-line is laden with veterans and is decent, although not dominant.� The interior consists of LG Vinnie Manuwai, center Brad Meester, and RG Chris Naeole.� None are to be confused with, say, Gene Upshaw or Gerry Mullinsm, although Manuwai is the best of the three.� All are short area scrappers, with Naeole being a rotund mound of blubber at about 330 pounds.� LT Khalif Barnes had a solid rookie season and has cemented his place at LT.� Opposite Barnesie is former Wolverine Mo Williams, who is, with Manuwai, the best all-around blocker on this line.� Backing up at tackle is former 1st round bust-extraordinaire, Cockar McDougle.��

 

The Stiller defense was especially strong against the run versus Miami, limiting Ron Brown to peanuts.� The pass defense was soft and flaccid, mostly because of 11-yard cushions at the snap of the ball, combined with a bizarre amount of slipping and sliding and poor tackling technique.� Troy Pola is questionable for this game with a bad shoulder, probably injured during one of the 13 plays that he lined up at nose tackle.� He doesn't use his shoulder much for tackling anyway, and is gritty enough that he'll likely play.� If he doesn't, it changes everything, especially because Jax's offense has the 3 big WRs.� Furthermore, the Stillers are already struggling trying to support, and hide, FS Ryan Clark.�

 

The key matchup will be the Stiller CBs on the Jax trio of WRs.� The Jax "Big 3" will force the Stillers to often go with a nickel package.� The Stiller CBs gave up softee cushions last week, and once Culpepper finally realized this, he began to play pitch-n-catch, particularly with Chambers.� The Jag staff has to have seen this on the film, and can easily use any of their 3 WRs, especially Jones, to seize upon large, softee cushions.� This isn't to say that the Stiller CBs need to play in press coverage every play, but they'd better spend at least a few plays lining up a bit tighter than 11 yards off the LOS.�

 

Other key matchups:� the Stiller front 7 containing Freddie Taylor.�� This actually isn't that tough a task, especially for a defense that shut down Ronnie Brown last week.� Still, I have grim nightmares of the Dec. 2000 game I attended at 3RS, where Taylor shredded the entire defense for 230+ rushing yards.� The only thing that will kill the Stillers in this matchup is if they overpursue Taylor and allow huge cutback lanes.� Given the stout nature of this Stiller front 7, combined with an okay, but hardly dominant O-line of the Jags, I don't see Taylor rushing for more than, say, 75 yards.�

 

- Clark Haggans vs. Mo Williams. �I like this matchup for the Stillers.� I think Hagg can gain a draw in the ground game and can apply some pressure on Byron.�

 

* When the Stillers have the ball, the big question will be whether Charlie Batch continues the QB chores for another week, or if Ben Roth assumes the duties after recovering from the appendectomy.� It sounds as if Big Ben will be back, but Batch handled the chores with aplomb in last week's win.� Based on the reports that I've seen, I fully expect Benji to start.�

 

The Jags run a 4-3 defense, led by a large, rugged, experienced front 4.� It all starts in the interior, where John Henderson and Marcus Stroud form one of the NFL's best DT combos.� Hendu is a bullish load, and Stroud is an athletic hoss of a man that can give any guard or center problems.� The Jags suffered a serious setback at DE last week, when starting DE Reggie Hayward ruptured an Achilles and is out for the season. �Hayward, as you might recall, abused Max Starks several times in last season's Stiller loss.� Replacing Hayward will be Rob Meier, a former 7th round pick who is ox-strong and can bulrush quite capably.� Meier could probably start for at least 15 teams around the league, and shouldn't be viewed as a slouch that is merely plugged into the lineup due to injury.� Opposite Meier is Paul Spicer, who is a very underrated DE and a big, agile body at DE to deal with at 295 pounds.� Spice is questionable, but I fully expect him to be healthy and on the field.� Former phenom Marcellus Wiley backs up at DE, with Tony McDaniel serving as a backup DT.�

 

The LB corps is led by MLB Mike Peterson, an all-around quality LB that can go sideline to sideline and is a very sure-handed tackler.� Former Giant Nick Griesen mans the LOLB, with Daryl Smith manning the ROLB spot.�� Smith, now in his 3rd season out of Ga Tech, is a rising, quality player with good quickness and instincts.� The Greiser is obviously the weak link among this LB crew.�

 

The Jag run defense was nicked here and there last week by the Cowpokes, with both Jones and Barber ripping off some nice chunks of yardage.� The Pokes weren't able, or weren't willing, to keep pounding the rock, and by the 4Q Jax had the type of lead that dictated that the Pokes abandon the ground game.�

 

The Jax secondary is partially led by CB Rashean Mathis, who is one of the better all-around corners in the league.� Mathis, you'll recall, ended last season's Stiller-Jags game by picking Maddox and taking it to the house.� Mathis had some problems dealing with TO last week, but, given TOs size and skill, some of that is to be expected.� Opposite Mathis is former Vike Brian Williams, who is a decent CB.� Willie picked up a DUI about 2 weeks ago and started off the Dallas game very slowly, prompting an angry tirade from HC Jack Del Rio.�

 

The other leader of this secondary is Donovin Darius, one of the premier SS in the league.� Darius went down early last season in the Indy tilt and was lost for the season.� As a consequence, the Jag defense suffered immensely, both in the stopping of passing yardage as well as run stuffing.� Darius was a bit quiet in last week's win over Dallas, but his mere presence alone shored up the Jax secondary and allowed this defense to smother Bledsoe and pick off 3 INTs.�� Serving along with Darius is former Caro Panther Deon Grant.� Terry Cousin gets some work in the nickel defense.�

 

The Stillers offense had some struggles in the 1H on Thur. nite, but came alive in the 2H.� The ground game kept pecking away at the solid front 7 of the Fins, and in the end, the Stiller rushing attack had a successful evening.�

 

The key matchup will be the Stillers' interior line against Henderson and Stroud.� This DT combo sets the table for the Jax defense, allowing Petersen to flow to the football; collapsing the pocket; and forcing dive plays to be strung out wide. �Henderson and Stroud can either blow up, or at least clog up, many a play.� They've got to be neutralized in order for the Stillers to run the ball and protect BenRoth.�� KenDoll Simmons has got to play oh, about 3 times better than he did in that wretched effort last week against Fat Keith Traylor, who isn't even half as good as either of these DTs.�

 

��� Other keys:

 

- Stillers interior O-line and FB vs. ILB Mike Peterson.� Pete only goes around 235 pounds and isn't brawny enough to consistently shed blocks.� Last week, rookie TE Anthony Fasano was able to seal off Peterson, springing Jones on a quick-hitting dive play for a 23-yard TD run.�

 

- Hines Ward vs. Rasheen Mathis.� This is mano-o-mano.�

 

- Be quick or be dead.� The key to running the ball on the Jags is quick-hitting plays that hit the hole with alacrity, as Dallas showed last week when they had their ground success.� The Whaleshit Counter need not be run against this kind of quick front 7.� Influence blocks can be used on occasion to take Stroud out of the play.

 

* Special Teams: �Josh Scobee Doo is a solid PK for the Jags, hitting 23 of 30 last year with a long of 53, although he missed a 49-yard boot last week.� Scobee Doo also has a strong leg on KOs.� Chris Hanson is a decent punter.� Chad Owens handles the PR chores for Jax, while Jones-Drew, Wimbush, and Owens work the KOR tasks.� The Stiller spec teams were an outright disgrace last week, and we can reasonably hope that they cannot get any worse.� We can only pray that rookie WR/kick returner Willie Reid will be permitted to dress and play in order to bolster a pathetic return game, but please, don't bet the mortgage on it.�

 

Key Individual Matchups:

 

* SS Troy Pola vs. CB Rasheen Mathis.�� If they could spar, it would be an epic battle of the 2 most hideous hairstyles in the NFL.� May the loser have his hair chopped off.�

 

Key Intangible: �How hard and tough will the Stillers play with Benji back in the lineup?� It's common for a team to rally and play like demons when a star QB, or start goaltender, is out with injury.� But, it's also common for a team to relax and ease up when that star QB or goalie returns, thinking, "Gee, now that good ol' so-and-so is back in the lineup, this'll be a piece of cake."� The Stillers rallied around Chuck Batch and played some good, tenacious football 10 days ago.� Let's hope they don't ease up, thinking that Benji's presence alone will bring home a "W".�

 

* Synopsis: This is a battle that not only will determine playoff seeding or tiebreakers, but could be a preview of a future playoff meeting.� The Stillers are, quietly enough, riding a 9-game winning streak, dating back to last December.� How long can it go?� The team is bound to stub its toe eventually, and on the road is more likely, NFL average-wise, than at home.� Then again, this Stillers team became road warriors during the 8-game streak last season.� At any rate, you can be assured of a hard fought, enormously physical contest between these 2 teams that have been bitter rivals since the Jaguar inception in 1995.� The Stillers will prevail in this hard-hitting contest with a 3-point win.�