2005 Game 9 Preview
The Steelers won ugly at Lambeau but they did win. No doubt, the team showed grit: entering that contest while the Franchise sprawled on some couch watching Charlie Batch make his first start in nearly 4 full seasons, the PS had to survive some additional blows, in-game. Due to injury, Willie Parker made no contribution past the teams� second possession, and the PSD lost their signal-caller, James Farrior, mid-way through H2.
Good teams win anyway, and the PS did come away with the victory. However, it�s a stretch to say they won it. Rather, as suggested in our last pre-game, Green Bay found a way to lose. The Steelers were beaten in most stat aspects, excepting that most important, turnover margin. They were 2 to the good there, by the numbers, but it is worth noting that only one truly deserved the moniker �takeway�. That was MacFadden�s sack and strip, which Polamalu brought back for a score.
Otherwise, well, ReShard Lee did prove what he could do in a starting role; he spit the bit, fumbling, with no contact, on his second carry. That unforced error led to a Steeler FG. Later, Tyrone Carter picked a ball that had caromed off Pack WR Donald Driver. This, Green Bay�s second unforced error, led to the Steelers� 2nd TD. In sum: Packer largesse provided 10 of the Steelers� 20 points, the winning edge in a 10-point game. Yes, that tilt is tucked in the win column (now and forevermore) but (otherwise) only one true positive emerged; that being Duce Staley, who clearly demonstrated that, healthy, he is the Steelers� lead RB.
Cleveland got their third win in eight goes last time, beating down the Titans along the Erie Shore. For the Browns, an offensive explosion: their 446 yards and 32:24 TOP a bonanza for a team (now) averaging 303.9 and 26:51. RB Reuben Droughns led the way with 189 yards total offense. Dennis Northcutt who, like the Steelers� own Cedrick Wilson, spent much of last week whimpering about his role, made a couple plays, as Ced did not. Northcutt had 3 receptions, including a 58-yard TD to open scoring.
In years past, the Browns were an easy out. Originally lacking both talent and direction, they closed the two-season Chris Palmer Dynasty at 5-27. The worst was yet to come, arriving when this 2nd incarnation collapsed into the chaos and mendacity that capped Butch Davis� (nearly) 4-year tenure.
That�s all over now: last winter, Cleveland upgraded their front office, bringing Phil Savage in from Baltimore. They�ve upgraded on the field too, with Romeo Crennel, formerly DC at New England. Crennel is a long time Belichick compadre, both men graduates of the Parcells Coaching Academy; so too is the Browns� OC, Maurice Carthon. The short form is: we can expect to see a Cleveland team that plays physically, that plays fundamentally sound football, one that, for the first time in Brownie 2, will not implode on the slightest probe. Now, commencing from the side where Coach Crennel made his bones:
D-side comparison, Cleveland and Pittsburgh:
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
v. TOP |
Rush YPC |
Pass YPA |
v. QB Rating |
Sacks |
Takes |
3rd down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
15.5 (5th) |
295.4 (8th) |
30:38 |
3.2 (3rd) |
6.62 (11th) |
71.5 (5th) |
23 (8th) |
19 (5th) |
44% (31st) |
578 (28th) |
Browns |
17.0 (6th) |
339.6 (24th) |
33:09 (29th) |
4.0 |
6.94 |
85.8 (21st) |
11 (31st) |
12 (T-21st) |
41% (26th) |
372 (5th) |
Note:
� Cleveland�s defense has been on the field more than all but 3 teams. Despite that, as evidenced in the sack and take ranks, they haven�t made many plays. They�re bad on 3rd down too, not PSD bad, but bad. However, the bottom line is PPG and there the Browns rank 6th, just one spot behind the Steelers. This is not the most talented defense in the League, but it is a resolute, tough-minded unit. Perhaps the best indicator is penalty yards. The Browns rank 5th here, one mark of a team that does not beat itself.
Browns� D-personnel:
Coach Crennel brought the 3-4 from New England but presently lacks the personnel to run that set. With the exception of LDE Orpheus Roye, the Brown D-line is undersized. Jason Fisk starts at NT, but Fisk, a mere 300# and an antique 33, cannot go all the way. RDE Alvin McKinley does battle, formerly a good 4-3 package pass rusher, he is somewhat undersized for the 3-4. The rotation players, Nick Eason and Ethan Kelly, have contributed 20T; Eason is low and powerful.
ROLB Chaun Thompson is an athlete but has yet to develop as a player. ILB Ben Taylor is light, 240#, and plays lighter. SOLB Kenard Lang has been a solid pro but, having spent his career as a 4-3 DE, Lang has struggled in the new system. None can be considered playmakers but that is not so for ILB Andra Davis. At 250#, Davis can fill; he does not have track speed but his instinct for the ball has made him a force in coverage.
The Browns took a hit in FA last winter when CB Anthony Henry set out for Big D. They did gain Gary Baxter, Savage importing that former Poe-Bird; however, Baxter is done for the year. That injury moved Leigh Bodden, 3rd year UDFA out of Duquesne, into a starting role. It�s a long jump from the Bluff to the Show but Bodden does have the attitude, size and speed to factor. Bodden has 2 INT (as did Baxter), and so does his running mate the diminutive but combative Daylon McCutcheon. The problem is depth; Ray Mickens is past it and Michael Lehan is not the guy at NCB.
The Browns do have considerable talent at safety but that resides with their reserves. Rookie Brodney Poole sees time in packages; he is long and has some speed but the Big 12, where he played at Oklahoma, features a number of dumbed-down pass attacks. Poole needs reps and future SS Sean Jones needs time to recover from a blown knee, suffered in camp 2004. In the interim, Chris Crocker, former CB, is at SS; Crocker plays hard but at 195# is undersized for the spot. FS Brian Russell is strictly a centerfielder.
What to expect:
With Charlie Batch at the helm in Lambeau, the PSO fell from 1st to 3rd in YPA and from 5th to 8th in QB rating. Of course, Roethlisberger does remain the individual leader in both categories. It�s worth noting that, with their vet backups, Maddox and Batch, the PSO has converted just 1 first down in 20 opportunities. That dismal result puts them at 28.7% on the year, 31st overall. Their rate with Roethlisberger is better but not much; 35.8% projected being good for #21.
On the plus side, the Steelers have moved the chains on earlier downs. Those count too. Overall, they have converted 17.9 first downs per game; that�s T-20th in a range with Buffalo and Baltimore. With Roethlisberger, they are better, 19.0 per game projecting to 15th. With Maddox/Batch, 14.5 per game, which about matches the Browns� season-long futility.
Off that last, we can expect a defensive struggle, with field position and ST factoring heavily. Cleveland will be all in against the run. Crennel was co-creator of those schemes that NE used to stump the PS run game. In general, those Pats featured a quantity of 4-down, 4-4, with D-linemen and LB scrumming reads via pre-snap walkabouts. One difference: Crennel had the horses upfront in NE but not now, not so much. A second: Rodney Harrison does not play for Cleveland.
Last week, Batch completed 9 passes. Of those: 5 went to RB (including Kreider), 2 to TE and 2 to WR. It is possible to move the safeties with a horizontal pass game and, to run the ball effectively, move the safeties we must. However, it is not possible to move the safeties with a pass game averaging just over 4.00 YPA. That was the Steelers� gross at Lambeau; factoring sacks, this dwindled to 3.5. That won�t get it. The PS didn�t need a pass game to win last week. That is because, on form, the Packers were sure to beat themselves. On form, these Browns will not.
On the other side of the ball:
O-side Comparison, Cleveland and Pittsburgh
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
TOP |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPA |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
Turnovers |
3rd down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
23.6 (10th) |
298.5 (25th) |
29:22 |
134.1 (5th) |
8.01 |
91.2 |
14 (9th) |
11 (T-8th) |
28.7 (31st) |
423 (9th) |
Browns |
14.3 (30th) |
303.9 (23rd) |
26:51 |
101.8 (21st) |
6.98 (16th) |
76.9 (19th) |
17 (T-12) |
15 (T-17th) |
33.7 (23rd) |
384 (5th) |
Note:
� For the second time in 3 weeks, the PSD draws an offense ranked #30 or worse in PPG. Last time, they gave the Ravens their season-high, 19. That won�t float against Cleveland; the Browns� high is 26, v. Green Bay Week 2. Additionally, they�ve gotten to 20 two times more.
Browns� O-side personnel:
Cleveland returns just 3 of 9 (2-deep) from their hapless 2004 O-line. Returnees include: RT Ryan Tucker, who is a brawler and OC Jeff Faine, a player who moves well but struggles to anchor. Job #1 last winter was to upgrade at OG. The Cleveland FO accomplished that bringing in former Pat LG Joe Andruzzi, a competitive, highly intelligent vet and former T-Bay RG Cosey Coleman, a player who, despite his size, is more about finesse than power. Andruzzi is the key acquisition; with this man sideboard, Faine�s play has improved dramatically.
Cleveland�s re-building process is incomplete. For example, LT LJ Shelton is a stopgap, necessitated when Ross Verba bought out his own contract. Shelton, a former R1 pick at Arizona, does have ability; however, that is only intermittently applied. He is the weak link in pass pro: Colt RDE Dwight Freeney rang up 3 sacks against this player, Raven RDE Terrell Suggs 1 and Houston RDE Gary Walker 2. Freeney and Suggs may be considered elite players, but Walker�s best days are all over now.
On balance, the Brown O-line is better run blocking than in pass pro, where they have allowed sacks at a rate of 7.8% (NFL average, 6.9%). However, it is worth noting that they�ve protected effectively in 5 of 8 games; in 3, no sacks, in 2, two. In 3 others, four each when: Indy got pressure on the edges (Freeney 3, Mathis 1); the Ravens blitzed successfully (WOLB Polley, 1.5; RDE Suggs, 1; SOLB Thomas, 1) and Detroit won in the middle (Wilkerson 2, DeVries 2). Sunday, we�ll see how the PSD rush compares.
Faine can be bulled and Shelton can be beaten on speed. Still, that O-line must be doing something right. We know this because four Brown skill players are on their way to career seasons. Those are WR Antonio Bryant, who has emerged as the #1, TE Steve Heiden, RB Reuben Droughns, and even QB Trent Dilfer. That said: firepower is at issue as, of those four, only Droughns has anything approaching elite numbers.
|
|
Bryant |
Heiden |
Droughns |
Dilfer |
Remarks |
|
Career best |
58 R 812 yards 16.8 YPC (2002) 6 TD (2002) |
28 R 287 yards 10.3 5 TD |
275 carries 1240 yards 32 R, 241 yards 8 TD |
82.8 QB rate (�97) 6.68 YPA (�97) +40 yard = 10 (�98) 2859 yards (�96) |
All 2004, except as noted |
|
2005 pace, projected to 16 games |
66 962 14.6 4 |
50 R 526 10.5 4 |
290 carries 1292 yards 42 R, 368 yards 0 TD |
76.9 6.92 14 3434 |
Dilfer is 2nd in the NLF with (7) +40 yard completions. |
Here�s the deal:
� Cleveland has scored 9 TD in 8 games. Of those, 8 by air and 1 on the ground.
� They scored 3 against Green Bay, 2 against both Tennessee and Chicago, 1 against both Houston and Cincinnati. So, none in games against: Indianapolis, Detroit and Baltimore; in each of those 3 tilts, Dilfer was sacked 4 times.
� Of those 9 TD, 7 came off big plays through the air. Those were: 80, 68, 62, 58, 33, 28 and 27 yards. Most were not long balls but catch and run; DB missing tackles figured in those cases.
� Cleveland has scored just 2 RZ TD this season.
All of that suggests a team that cannot sustain drives. This is confirmed not so much by their 3rd down %, which is 23rd in the League, but by their 1st down per game mark, which is 30th. Then too, Cleveland is bad in the RZ, when they get there, and they don�t get there often. Finally, the sack caveat above, no-TD-when-sacked-4- times, suggests a unit that simply cannot recover from negative plays.
On the season, Dilfer has thrown for 1717 yards in 246 attempts. That is a creditable 6.97 YPA. But, pull out those long TD and the numbers drop to 1361 yards and 239 attempts. That is a YPA of 5.69, which is a losing mark.
Obviously, any set of QB numbers will dwindle if top gains are negated. However, that is exceptionally so for Dilfer. As noted, he is #2 in the League for +40 gains; he is far down the charts in +20. This suggests a feast or famine mode for the Brown pass O. Generally, that set has starved; those seven long TD are the exception and that (adjusted) 5.69 YPA is the rule.
What to expect:
Cleveland will attack Clint Kriewaldt, on the ground and in the air. Jeff Faine cannot handle Hampton one on one so, when the PS base is on the field, he�ll get help from a Brown OG. That�s Cleveland�s game; they are not a drive blocking aggregate; they do zone, down and cut. Reuben Droughns is comfortable with that scheme; it is similar to the lateral one cut and go mode run in Denver, where he excelled last season.
Kriewaldt can play going forward. It is questionable whether he can play laterally or in reverse. The Browns run design will test the former; their pass game will probe the latter. It is noteworthy that Droughns is the Browns� #3 receiver, Heiden #2. On any given play, Kriewaldt may have responsibility for either.
The Browns figure to have another matchup advantage in the pass game. That being: any WR v. Deshea Townsend. Healthy, Townsend is a capable cover CB. However, he is not healthy. As we saw last week, Townsend cannot play press. That is because he cannot turn and run. Maybe, he�s healed now but if not he will need considerable help over the top.
Cleveland has opened 8 straight with FB Terrelle Smith starting. They figure to do so again Sunday seeking to isolate FB on ILB. It�s a good bet the Browns will try to get the Steelers in packages, where the upfront bulk edge swings their way.
Cleveland has shown an unusual twin TE set. With Dilfer under center and Droughns behind, the Browns align Shea and Heiden behind the OT creating a 4-man backfield; a diamond-T, for lack of a better term. This set has been reasonably effective in short yardage situations. In the pass game, it may accomplish two ends: 1) three receiving options in the short pass game forcing the PS LB into coverage or 2) maximum protection for the long ball. (Note: maximum protection is, by definition, 8 blockers not 6 or 7).
Typically, the PS have countered twin tight either in heavy nickel or their quarter package; either way, 3 safeties. The set outlined above tends to pit Cleveland bigs v. Steelers smalls, both in coverage, and pressure. Big v. small is the Browns� best option in the run game. Establishing the run, Cleveland can shorten the game, which is the their best chance to win.
Keys v. Cleveland O:
� Tackle the receiver: As noted, most of the Browns big pass plays have been catch and run. Dilfer does not throw the deep ball accurately.
� Ike on Tony: Antonio Bryant is Dilfer�s go-to guy. That pair has developed some chemistry, especially on intermediate/deep square-ins. Taylor is a force in man; he is average, at best, in zone. It follows Taylor can handle Bryant on-man; however, he will be helpless backed off in Cover 3. We�ve seen this repetitively: in Week 1, when Titan rook Brandon Jones had a couple in front of Ike and in Week 3, when 7 Pat receivers had receptions of +10 yards v. the Steelers zones. The PS can (partially) protect Kriewaldt (and they must) by removing the deep in. In the air game, this is job #1; Ike Taylor is the man for the job. If the PS can take out Bryant, the Browns auxiliary receivers: Braylon Edwards, Dennis Northcutt and Steve Heiden, are not going to win it.
� Limit Reuben Droughns: Droughns leads the Browns in rushing and is #3 in receptions. On the season, he has 830 yards total offense; he accomplished 144 in the 2nd half last week against Tennessee. Reportedly, that effort inspired his teammates. It follows: limit Droughns Sunday and the Browns may deflate accordingly. In the run game, that�s all about gap fundamentals; in the pass, the PS LB and DE must contest Droughns� every release.
� Win inside: Neither Faine nor Andruzzi anchor effectively; Cosey Coleman is questionable and his backup unproven. The PS have an opportunity to get rushers in Dilfer�s face; taking away the inside, takes away Droughns, since he is not an RB effective bouncing it out.
Conclusion:
Cleveland has an opportunity Sunday.
Ben Roethlisberger will miss his 3rd game in this campaign. On paper, the Steelers were prepared for that contingency, but Tommy Maddox was awful in his last start in B&G and Charlie Batch was extremely limited in his first. Those are two veterans, but both have played like rookies.
This week, the Steelers are down a signal caller on the D-side too. Kriewaldt, like Batch a Lion alum, will get the nod. Reportedly, that is because he tests well, on paper; certainly, he�s had few on-field opportunities. Maybe he steps up, maybe not but either way it is worth considering why Joey Porter was not prepared to take the reins. He�s done it before; remember: Porter made his first Pro Bowl in 2002, mainly off his performance in the Steelers� then-all-too-exposed dime defense.
Increasingly, Porter has become the Steeler fans love to hate but that is based on a misapprehension. Many see Joey as an elite pass rusher now in decline but that is not so. In fact, Porter never has been an elite pass rusher. In this league, elite pass rushers are DE. With few Freeney-esque exceptions, those are of a type: ~ 6�-4� to 6�, ~265-280#. That is a type conspicuously absent on the PS roster.
OLB have put up sack numbers in the Cowher 3-4 but for the most part those have been scheme, not talent, related. Then too, when lacking a credible rush threat at ILB, the Cowher PS pass rush typically has floundered. Consider Blitzburgh, with Chad Brown inside or the 2001 PS when Kendrell Bell flashed. Now, consider the identical set in those years following, after Bell winked out.
At DE, Joey Porter is not going to win one on one. That is because he is out of position at DE. Porter is an OLB; like many, he can rush in spot duty but that is the weakest aspect of his game. Porter is now, as he has been, the Steelers� best LB at the POA. He is now, as he has been, among the best LB in the League in on-man pass-D.
Sounds like a dimebacker and Porter does have the pedigree. Admittedly, the PS packages have changed dramatically from Lewis to LeBeau. However, that the PS braintrust (evidently) did not cross-train (or re-train) #55 was a failure of foresight, not some cruel twist of fate.
Presumably, this failure is linked to the Cowher-Steelers draft history. The PS, like most teams, do draft package DB; they do draft package WR, 3rd down RB and package TE too. It�s a mystery why they have not drafted package rushers but, excluding the lamentable Zo Jackson, they have not. Now, well, they are where they are. For far too long, Porter has been yoked into the DE slot because the PS has had no one better able. That�s a deep and persistent flaw, one highly likely to surface, if not now then still too soon.
Back of the book, 3 tables:
Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:
2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:
|
|
First Half |
Second Half |
Final | ||||||
|
|
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Score |
|
v. Titans |
16 |
9 |
20-7 |
25 |
2 |
14-0 |
41 |
11 |
34-7 |
|
@ Texans |
15 |
16 |
20-0 |
17 |
6 |
7-7 |
32 |
22 |
27-7 |
|
v. Patriots |
11 |
12 |
10-7 |
10 |
21 |
10-16 |
21 |
33 |
20-23 |
|
@ Chargers |
18 |
16 |
14-7 |
13 |
12 |
10-15 |
31 |
28 |
24-22 |
|
v. Jaguars |
11 |
14 |
14-10 |
14 OT: 3 |
17 OT: 2 |
3-7 0-6 |
28 |
33 |
17-23 |
|
@Bengals |
14 |
9 |
7-6 |
29 |
6 |
20-7 |
43 |
15 |
27-13 |
|
v. Ravens |
13 |
19 |
10-10 |
13 |
15 |
10-9 |
26 |
34 |
20-19 |
|
@ Green Bay |
9 |
10 |
13-3 |
16 |
11 |
7-7 |
25 |
21 |
20-10 |
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Notes:
� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.
� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.
� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.
PSD 3rd down performance, stops/attempts, thru 8 games:
|
|
3rd & 1 -3 |
3rd & 4-5 |
3rd & 6 to 9 |
3rd & 10 or more |
Remarks |
|
First 7 games |
8/28 28.6% |
9/14 64.2% |
23/34 67.6% |
16/23 69.5% |
Third and short is steadily improving while third and long steadily declines. |
|
v. Green Bay |
2/5 |
3/4 |
3/5 |
1/3 |
PSD credited with a 3rd and 6 stop on an aborted play. Penalties resulted in no-plays on 2 others; 1 stop and 1 conversion |
|
Thru 8 games |
10/33 30% |
12/18 67% |
26/39 67% |
17/26 65.3% |
Good performance on 3rd and short. Unacceptable performance on 3rd and long. |
|
Acceptable stop rate |
20% |
NF |
67% |
90% |
Acceptable rates per Tim Lewis, circa 2003. http://www.stillers.com/articles/914.aspx |
Note:
� Steelers� 3rd and long performance has been unacceptable in 3 of the past 5 and each of the last 2. Amazingly, that unit has been more successful on 3rd and 4-9 than 3rd and 10 plus.
2005 Steelers� #3-5 receivers, thru 8 games:
|
|
First 4 games |
Last 4 games |
|
Randle-El |
10 receptions, 270 yards, 27.0 YPC |
6 receptions, 58 yards, 9.67 YPC |
|
Wilson |
7 receptions, 140 yards, 20.0YPC |
2 reception, 21 yards, 10.5 YPC |
|
Morgan |
1 reception, 9 yards |
4 receptions, 68 yards, 17.0 YPC |
Notes:
� Against Green Bay, this trio combined to haul down one ball, Wilson for 11 yards. In fairness, it should be noted Ward and Miller combined for 3 grabs and 23 yards.
� Charlie Batch didn�t do much but he did get the RB involved. Kreider was the Steelers leading receiver with 2 catches and 13 yards; Staley had 2 for 9; before hobbling off, Willie Parker had a catch too.
Note to readers:
No Game 10 Preview here. The Ravens were covered, so far as I care to do so, pre-Game 7.