Eying the Draft -- Macro-level Immutable Rules of Drafting �. (Apr 22, 2003)

With the draft day beckoning the nation's attention, it's time to pause and consider the time-honored, but all too often forgotten, Immutable Rules of NFL Drafting.��

- It burns various teams every year, and the Stillers have seen their share of problems with this immutable rule of drafting:� Do not reach to fill a need when a far better football player is available.� Yet, sure enough, all too many Steeler fans are clamoring for, and even demanding, a safety, for example, totally regardless of who else is available, entirely to fill a "need" at that certain spot.� This really stems from America's insatiable appetite to scratch an itch and "do it now" mentality without thinking through the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th order effects of a given decision.� Sure, if it's you're turn to draft and 2 available players are at the top of your evaluation criteria, one might reasonably take player B to address a need even though Player A is a smidgen better.�� That's acceptable.� What isn't acceptable is passing on Jevon Kearse to reach for Troy Edwards, which was one of the most hideous reaches in modern NFL history.� An oft-forgotten reach was the selection of FB Carlos King in round 4 of the 1998 draft.� King was well-known to be a total zero as a blocker, while the Stiller offense mandated that the FB be able to plow through a brick wall.� Undeterred by King's total lack of strength, power, and blocking ability, the Stillers pissed away a 4th round pick on him, all because they wanted to fill a void at FB.�� King was cut just about as quickly as cajun cornerback Liffort Hobbley back in the 80's under Chas Noll.� As another prime example, back in the 1995 draft the Stillers reached desperately to fill a need.�� Mark Bruener was the 27th player selected in that draft, and the Stillers frothed over him primarily because Eric Green departed town. �The player taken directly after the bootfooted Bruener was a linebacker by the name of Derrick Brooks.� Had the Stillers taken Brooks, he would have easily been the franchise's career sack leader instead of Jason GilDong, and more importantly, would have given the Stillers some supreme linebacking instead of the fraudulent play of Carlos Emmons, Donte Jones, and/or Jason GilDong.� In '96, the Stillers reached like rabid giraffes to select fatassed OT Jamain Stephens, who was a total bust.� What makes the "reach to fill a need" stupidity all the more stupid, is the fact that, with modern-day free agency combined with inevitable retirement and also the statistical probability of career-damaging injury, your roster is susceptible to 25% annual turnover.� With that in mind, it makes absolutely no sense to reach to fill this year's need, when, inevitably, you'll have other major needs the following season anyway.� If you reach and fill the void with a weak player, you now have TWO needs the following year -- the "original" need that you reached for the prior year, and another major need that has now cropped up due to injury, free agency, or retirement.�

- Select the best football player/best athlete.� I cannot stand the "best athlete available" (BAA) mantra.� If this were the decathlon, or a SuperStars Competition, then BAA might apply.� This is football.� Neither Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, nor Andy Russell could even remotely approach the label of "excellent athlete".� All three, however, were excellent football players.� Don't get me wrong -- athleticism is good to have.� The grave blunder, however, is placing too great a premium on "athleticism" (or "sheer athleticism", as the trite saying goes), and not enough on whether the guy can crack skulls and play with a rugged, tough mentality as a football player in the National Football League.�� The Stillers drafted OLB Steven Conley back in round 3 of the 1996 draft.� Conley was hailed as the "next coming", mostly due to his sheer athleticism as a hoops player and some track skills as well.�� When it came time to put on the pads and crack skulls, Conley was as soft and feeble as a Jason Gildon, and never amounted to squat in the NFL.� 14 picks later, the Pats selected Teddy Bruschi, a far less athletic linebacker but a guy with the heart of a lion and the passion to be an NFL football player.� Later in that same draft, the Dolphins selected an "un-athletic" LB named Zach Thomas in round 5, and the Stillers themselves drafted an un-athletic LB named Earl Holmes.� Of these LBs, the Stillers got the best athlete available in Conley, while the Pats and Dolphs (and even the Stillers with Holmes) got the best football player available in terms of linebacker.� Certainly, the scouting department needs to evaluate a prospect's athleticism in terms of his 40 time, cone drill time, high jump, bench press, and so on.�� Let's face it -- a tough football player who runs a 5.6 "40" probably won't pan out as a safety in the NFL, although a coach like Billy Cowher might very well froth over the guy's "playcalling ability" and his "awareness" and his "ability to get others into the right positions".�� It's got to be a combination of "football player" and "athlete".�� For example, Kendrell Bell is both.� Will Blackwell wasn't anything approaching a football player, and even as an athlete, had dubious merits.� That's why Bell was a steal as a 2nd round pick, while Jackwell was one of the very worst 2nd round selections in the history of the franchise.� Dan Kreider is, according to "measurables", a lousy athlete but one helluva football player.� Same for Hines Ward.� Hall of Fame RB Marcus Allen was deemed "too slow" and was subjected to all sorts of paralysis by analysis on his measurables, and then had one of the greatest RB careers of all time.� (In fact, had he not been selected by the Raidas, the Stillers were still going to select RB Walter Abercroombie.)� I cringe every time I see too much emphasis placed on a guy's "measurables" and "athleticism", and not enough on his ability to simply play football.�

- Do not forget undrafted rookies free agents and SalCap casualties.� The draft isn't the do all and end all.� Undrafted rookies can be signed, and some -- like Dan Kreider -- can and do make an impact.� (Sure, Kreider was ultimately cut at the end of camp in lieu of Jon Witman, but luckily was re-signed a few weeks later when injuries hit the roster.)�� There will be numerous June 1st "salcap cuts", and other unsigned UFAs (like Kwammie Lassiter or last summer's Charlie Batch) remain a reasonable course of action.� Because of the pool of undrafted rookies, salcap casualties, and "neglected UFAs", there shouldn't be any reason to reach for an inferior player just to fill a need.�

- Don�t get too enamored with vanilla adequacy when brilliant, impact playmaking is available in the draft.� Some scouts and some teams get too enamored with polite draft prospects who have shown solid, middle of the road production and potential�.but nothing more.� In the meantime, there are some dazzling flowers just waiting to bloom, but these same scouts will inevitably pull out the microscope and frown over every last miniscule flaw.� This is precisely why the Jerry Rice's, the Brian Urlacher's, and the Kendrell Bell's get passed over in favor of "safer" bets that turn out to be vanilla mediocrity.�

Some caveats:

- QB is a position that can appropriately be passed over on Day 1 -- situation dependent -- even when a QB is clearly the BFPA (best football player avail) and BAA.� The reason is three-fold: �a.)� Unlike nearly every other position outside of the kicking game, you can have only one QB on the field at a time (unless you've got a "slash"), and it's basically impossible to "rotate" or "platoon" the QB position.� For example, every team needs 2 good OLBs to round out their starting lineup, plus depth, plus special teamers...so adding another OLB who is the BFPA/BAA is sensible and do-able, even if you�ve got 2 solid starters.� You can still groom and develop the guy -- and get productivity from him -- in situational spots (ie, pass rushing) and some platoon work, as well as spec teams.� But if you're already fairly set at QB, adding another QB when some other player ranks nearly as high on your evaluation criteria, might be investing too much for a guy to rot the pine.� b.)� QBs taken in the first day of the draft typically command massive signing bonuses and salaries.� This can be a cap killer, and to teams either well stocked at QB, or with too many other gaping holes, it may not be prudent to lavish millions on an unproven greenhorn.� c.)� Because of the nature of the position, QB is the very toughest position in all of pro sports.� Therefore, it takes the longest to master, and the ROI (return on investment) may not pan out, or may pan out far too slowly.� (Having said all of this, the Stillers have eschewed the QB position in the draft for far too long, content to spend nothing more than scrap-heap picks in the 5th, 6th, or most often, the 7th round.)���

- Ignore kickers on Day 1, regardless of their measurables, "productivity" and so on.�

Who do I like, for example, for the Stillers to take in round 1 of this draft?� Again, it goes back to the immutable rules of drafting.� Some names have been bandied about as being available when the Stillers stride up to the podium -- Kenny Peterson, Troy Polamalu, and Larry Johnson.�� Assuming the team has done its homework and has done a good job of evaluating criteria, I can live with any of these 3, as long as the guy is the BFPA/BAA when the Stillers draft.� Peterson -- if as good as advertised -- would give the Stillers a stud DE and the logical successor to Kimo.� Drafting Peterson would allow the Stillers to possibly cut Kimo after June 1st and re-sign him to smaller dollars, or, at the very least, they�d have a nice platoon of Kimo/Peterson to start the season and then give Pete more PT as he progresses in September.� Polamalu would give the Stillers speed, athleticism, and playmaking ability at the safety spot, something this franchise hasn�t seen since Carnell Lake was in his prime.� Johnson would give the Stillers a power-type back who also has agility and quickness, and can also catch the ball in the passing game. �His arrival would obviously hasten the departure of the bloated BellyBack, Jerome Bettis.� Again, the key -- if all 3 were hypothetically available when the Stillers are on the clock -- is to get the BFPA/BAA based on the team�s scouting and evaluation, while not reaching just to fill a need.��

Once again, muchos kudos to my esteemed colleagues here, Phantom and Haven, for their splendid work on the upcoming draft.� Please take the time to read, digest, and assimilate their draft articles.� You won't find anything close to the depth, breadth, and analysis of the draft, as what these two preeminent writers are providing.����

(Still Mill and Stillers.com -- the only nationally read coverage on the Pittsburgh Stillers that has accurately predicted the how's and the why's of the past 3 Stiller playoff losses�.)