2004 Game 5 Preview: Cleveland at Pittsburgh

 

For the third time, these Steelers have the opportunity to put an opponent two down in the division race.� They did so once, dropping the Bengals last week; previously, they�d flopped down in Charm City.� The non-Browns are 1-0 in division, having whipped Baltimore in their opener.� Since then, they�ve played three NFC East also-rans, beating Washington at home but losing on the road at both New York and Dallas.�

 

Win or lose, these un-Browns have played ugly.�� They�ve been good on ST, have defended the run well, and, except when both starting CB were inactive against the NYG, have defended the pass acceptably too.� However, their offense has been abominable; these faux-Browns have yet to put anything together.�� To cite two examples: Week 1, nearly half their total offense came on two pass plays and, Week 4, about 60% of Lee Suggs� rush yardage came on 3 of 22 carries.� Despite considerable playmaking potential at the skill positions, Cleveland has been unable to sustain many drives; generally, they score quickly or they don�t score at all.� Typically, they don�t score; in four games, the Cleve-O has just 5 TD.� Further:

 

• Cleveland is 31^st in total offense; only Miami is worse.

 

• Cleveland is 31^st in 3^rd down conversions having picked up just 13 in 51 tries.� That�s 25.5%, at 26.8%; the feeble Fins are (slightly) ahead of Cleveland; only the Deuce shorn Saints are worse.�

 

• Cleveland has 3TD in 9RZ trips.� That�s a bad conversion rate, the average is about 50%, and a bad trip number too, the average being closer to 3 per game.�

 

Season long, Cleveland�s offensive unit has averaged just 27:44 TOP.� The low point was in Dallas, when the Boys had it for 36:08.� Cleveland has lost 3 of 4 TOP wars; however, they did edge Washington last week, primarily on Lee Suggs� efforts.� Beyond doubt then, job #1 for the PS D is: stop Lee Suggs or, more specifically, stop the big run.�

 

Injuries have limited Suggs to date, he�s had extensive time in just two games over two seasons but in those two his big play ability did make all the difference.� Consider:

 

• Last week against Washington, Suggs had 82 yards on 22 carries.� Of those, 52 came on 3 trips; otherwise, Suggs was 19/30.

 

• In Week 17, 2003 (against the Bengals), Suggs had 186 yards on 26 carries; 103 yards came on 2 (TD) runs so, otherwise, 24/83.

 

It�s worth noting that Washington came into Week 4 with the #1 rush defense in football.� Now, the Skins have allowed 238 yards rushing through 4 games, which is to say 82 for Suggs and 156 for all others.� Compare Suggs� mark (22/82) against all other Skin comers, who have carried 74 times for that aggregate 156 yards, and you get a fairly clear idea of his impact potential.

 

Now, consider the PS run defense:

 

• On the season, the Steelers are 11^th having allowed 422 yards on 119 carries.�

 

• Pull out the Miami game, when the Fins could get just 52 yards on 29 trips and, in the other three, the PS run D has allowed an average 123.3 YPG at 4.1YPC.� Generally, that would be worth about #19, as those figures are closest to the Bears� season mark.

 

Not good enough.� Classically, the Steeler OKIE is built on three 2-gap D-linemen who soak up blocks, allowing the LB, especially the ILB, to run to the ball.� That doctrine has changed this season as, presumably in an effort to pressure with just four rushers, Coach LeBeau has the down three trying to get upfield.� That�s great in pass situations and okay against the run, if but only if the ILB can defeat a block.� However, neither Farrior nor Foote can do that.� With the advent of zone blocking, O-linemen let the D-side go where they want, and then wall them off; too often then, the PS D-linemen have gotten into the backfield only to find themselves entirely out of the play.� Then too, one IOL or another has been getting a free shot at the PS ILB and, as noted, both have gotten wired up repetitively.� We saw that last week where, time after time, Rudi Johnson read Hampton, cut to the offside, generally over his own LG, and then ran free.�

 

The upshot has been that the PS D has gotten a lot of stuffs (TFL) but has been too often gouged.� IMO, this week they must get back to upfront basics.� Cleveland is a zone blocking team, especially on the right side where neither RG Kevin Garmon nor RT Joaquin Gonzales can get it done, man on man.�� LG Paul Zakaukas is similar to Garmon, powerful straight ahead but both laterally challenged and poor in pass protection.� Hampton and one or the other DE must engage both OG on every (run) down.� Since neither OG has any recover ability, this should leave the interior gaps free for Foote/Farrior.� While the PS ILB will have to deal with FB Terrell Smith, who is a player, that�s a better matchup than that they experienced last week with Eric Steinbach.� In sum:

 

• The Browns cannot protect their QB.� As noted, neither OG can pass protect; that is true of RT Gonzales too.� OC Jeff Faine is a quality player but he does have a tendency to set up deep, negating the traditional West Coast 3-step, 5-step, gone game.� LT Ross Verba is pretty good outside, but susceptible underneath.� The PS will be able to exert gut pressure; when Garcia rolls right, it will be on Clark Haggans and Aaron Smith to clean up.

 

• �The Browns figure to pound it using both Suggs and William Green, with Smith as a lead blocker.� If they suck up the PS safeties, they can make a play in the pass game, probably off some considerable YAC.��

 

• This week, the mainstream was roiled over the factoid that SS Troy Polamalu is leading the PS in tackles.� That�s unusual but not unprecedented: to date, 8 teams feature a safety as their T leader.� Oddly 3 (all but Baltimore) are in the AFC North.� The others: Denver (Lynch), Dallas (Williams), AZ (Wilson), NO (Jones) and Philly (Lewis).� LB top the list for 22 teams including all 3-4 teams save the PS.� For the remaining two, CB, and that can�t be good.�

 

When the Steelers have the ball, they will be lined up opposite the stoutest run D they�ve faced in the reign of Roethlisberger.� This suggests that, unlike the prior two tilts, Big Ben is going to have to take a featured role.� Reviewing the Cleve-run D to date:

 

• Week 1: Utilizing a 4-4 front, limited Jamal Lewis to 57 yards on 20 carries.

 

• Week 2:� Playing packages against the no-run �Boys, still limited Eddie George to 62 yards on 18 carries.

 

• Week 3:� Without their starting CB, were forced to packages to defend the NYG pass game and so allowed Tiki Barber 106 yards on 26 carries.

 

• Week 4: Calling out the Skins plays at the LOS, limited Clinton Portis to 58 yards on 20 carries.

 

Barber is the league�s #2 rusher; Lewis #7 and Portis #10.� The Browns have limited some quality runners; however, it is worth noting that Duce Staley, at #8, does belong in that group.� That said, it figures the PS will have to grind it out as, to date, the Cleve run D has allowed no RB anything more than 11 yards.� Inferring from that stat a number of 3^rd and long situations would account for the Cleve-D�s excellent performance on 3^rd down.� Their conversion rate allowed, 28% (14/50), is #4 in the league.

 

Overall, the Brown D is 20^th in yards allowed, that low rank largely off their 26^th rating in passing yards against.� However, it is worth noting that:

 

• The Brown D has been on the field for over 32 minutes per game.�

 

• Failing to run the ball, opponents have been forced to throw.�

 

• Again, that NYG game, in which the Browns started their #3 and #4 CB.

 

Possibly, a better indicator is passer rating against.� The Browns are 7^th in that department, having allowed just 71.2.� The Browns have faced Kurt Warner (#8), Vinnie (#22) and Mark Brunell (#24) in addition to Kyle Boller, (#27).� That�s not a great roster but it does trump the PS opponents to date:� Gannon (#15), Boller, Palmer (#34) and Feeley (#35).

 

The Cleve pass-D may be underrated but by the same token, their proficiency against the run could be overblown. Consider:

 

• Cleveland is a Cover 2 team but their FS, Robert Griffith, leads the team in tackles.� This, along with that 3^rd and long inference above, suggests play action passes on early downs.� That�ll play with Staley or Haynes but if Duce can�t go and, as has been rumored Bettis gets the start, well, play action won�t factor much.

 

• MLB Andra Davis is #2 with 25 tackles.� The MLB position is, of course, integral to any run D; however, Davis�s keen instincts have made him a quality pass defender too.� Big Ben has to account for Davis on every down; the best way to do that is to dictate terms.� Again, that means passing on run downs and running in pass situations.�

 

The Cleve DT are pretty good but past Davis their space defenders are suspect.� No player (other than those noted above) has more than 18 T.� Cleveland has just 6 sacks on the season; 3 came in Game 1 when RDE Kenard Lang overwhelmed career scrub Ethan Brooks.� Lang has 4 on the year; LDE Ebenezer Ekuban has 2; all other Cleve-defenders have combined for zero.� While CB Anthony Henry has size and a nose for the ball, he�s slow.� It�s way past time for the Steelers to take advantage of 5�-8� CB Daylon McCutcheon.�

 

Special Teams/ Adjusted Total Yards:

 

Sunday, the PS may have to put it on Ben to win; more likely though, it�s going to be a punt-a-thon.� To date, Chris Gardocki has booted it 24 times; only 4 teams� punters have more with Cleveland, at 23, just up the track.� Unfortunately, this portion of the game does not favor the PS.� Gardocki is 23^rd in the NFL in net average; Derrick Frost, the man who replaced Gardocki in Cleveland (at far less cost), is #12.� As an aside, Josh Miller, run out of the no-Steel City, is #1.

 

At the other end: Dennis Northcutt is #4 in return average; Randle El is just about invisible on that list.� As the punt game affects field position, the Steelers are at a disadvantage.� There�s also the matter of penalties, where the Steelers have been assessed more penalty yards than all but 2 teams in the league.��

 

Against that, takeaways:� the Steelers lead the AFC with 11, all coming in their 3 wins.� In the opener, a +3 take rate and a quantity of return yards negated the Raiders� pass advantage.� Predictably, the Fins were victimized for another +3.� Just +1 last week but a couple late INT did secure that win.� So far, the PS have won when they�ve gotten the ball and not when they�ve not.� That�s papered over some flaws: a low ranked pass game, an excess of penalties and a poor punt balance.� It figures that both the pass attack and punt (return) aspects will improve; as for the others, well, those are supportable against the league bottomfeeders but, past the bye, where the true creatures lie, not so much.�����

�����

Appendix: previous stat observations

 

	Years��� Observed	Composite Record	WF	Remarks
+2 takeaways	2	214-23	1.81	A killer stat with a WF translating to 14 wins in 16 games.� However, this occurs in only 46% of all games.
RZ trips	1	139-33	1.62	A function of field position, which is to say offense, takeaways and ST returns.� RZ efficiency is more frequently cited but that had a WF of just 1.30 last season
+2 sacks	1	101-28	1.57	A composite of sacks and pressures would be preferable but pressure stats aren�t kept.� Therefore, this is an approximation of the effects of overall pressure.� Occurred in about 50% of all games in 2003.
Rushing attempts	1	193-49-14	1.56	A better indicator than either total yards rushing (WF 1.40) or 100-yard rushers (WF 1.39).�
YPA	2	370-112-16	1.52	A measure of passing efficiency to include protection.�
TOP	2	352-142-2	1.42	Time of possession, misleading in that some bad offenses play slow.
3rd down conversions	1	175-75-6	1.39
Total Offense	1	169-81-6	1.34	Not a great indicator, adjusted total yards (offense yards + return yards- penalty yards) probably is a truer test.

 

Note to new readers:

 

WF represents winning factor; it is an index figure derived by dividing the number of wins by � all games played.� Ties are counted as half a win.�� It�s clear enough then that, say, a 1.50 factor translates to 12 wins in a 16 game season (12/8 = 1.50).� That represents a dead-sure first round bye and, to the extent that SB trips are correlated with first rounds byes, that�s your number.� Or maybe 1.375 as 11/8 =1.375, with 11 wins being about the minimum for bye team