Prolegomenon
to Stacking the Board 2002:
The smart guys
publishing mock drafts are split on the Stillers selections just now with about
half favoring LB, the rest TE.���
Superficially, this makes sense; the 3-4 Stillers have (2) UFA starting LB,
the TE position figures to consume disproportional cap space.� Of course, since the Stillers have only a
single pick in the 1st, the FO will have to settle on just one
player.� Much will change as the FA
phase develops but here are some factors worth considering now.
The Stillers
TE troika amassed 24
receptions for 218 yards and (2) TD.�
Tuman and Cushing both scored; Bruener went 0/2001.� Bruener�s 2002 roster spot can�t be assured;
while this man is a (7) year starter, he has finished (3) campaigns on the
IR.� His cap hit, mainly a consequence
of successive contract re-does, is reportedly now somewhere between
$5-5.6M.� Roughly $2.5M is salary; that
number is well over the franchise mark for the position since, excluding FB, TE
are the worst paid position players on the field.� Last winter, a franchise TE was worth $2.1M in salary; safety,
the next lowest paid position, carried a $3.2M tag.� The Stillers are some $14M below the 2002 cap for now but with
(2) UFA at their featured D-side position plus Porter, A. Smith and Zereoue
open for offers AND with Faneca heading into his last year, that surplus could
disappear in a hurry.�
It is said that
Bruener is essential to the Stillers ball control mode but for the most part,
the team ran the ball fairly effectively without him, even with back-ups at RB
and at one or both OG spots.� True,
Tuman got tooled by Bobby Hamilton in the Pat game but, maybe, that was a
coaching adjustment issue.� The Rams
O-side genius, Mike Martz, showed a counter move when he flipped Orlando Pace
to the strong side beside RT Rod Jones while lining up TE Ernie Conwell as a
faux-LT.��� Gadget in, gadget out; play
moved on.� I�m no great Tuman fan but if
TE means tackle-eligible here, you�ve got to question the wisdom of a cap
charge for a micro-tackle like Bruener when that exceeds, say, Gandy�s
hit.� On the flip side, the Stillers
out-rushed their opponents in 16/18 games last year; with Bruener, they were
11/11 in that category but without him just 5/7.�
TE has been a
low-profile position here.� Maybe,
former TE Mike Mularkey means to reform this; if so, then a 1st
round TE could be in the cards.�
Usually, value at this position resides at the bottom of the 1st
and this year should be no exception.�
The NYG, Seahawks and Broncos may draft a TE (Seattle almost certainly
will) but, given those teams� multiple needs, the Stillers could get the #2 TE
overall.� Those fans with a developed
sense of irony may appreciate that Bruener was the 2nd TE taken in
1995 (after Kyle Brady); upset in the preceding AFC championship game, the
Stillers drafted low in the 1st that year too.� While no TE coming out is a road-grader in
the Bruener mold, the guys at the top (Graham and Shockey) both can get
downfield and for now, both carry a slightly higher grade than does the top OLB
prospect, Napoleon Harris.�
TE summary,
draft-wise:� Big cap numbers should match impact; in
Pittsburgh, that�s at LB, not TE.�
However, if the Stillers were going to move Bruener out they surely
would have made him available to Houston.�
It would be outright stupidity to have protected him from the rapacious
Texans only to cut him later for some partial cap savings.� IMO, Bruener is here to stay and, if history
is our guide, his deal will get re-done, again.� For effective cap relief, this coming re-do would require an
extension well beyond the 2002 season.�
Bruener will be here as long as the Stillers are Bus-dependent; that so,
the FO will not be looking at TE on the 1st day.
Though 3-4
devoted, the Stillers are facing some real trouble at LB.�
Essentially, the FO has to deal with (3) starters since, while Porter
isn�t an UFA, his superior skills and versatility may generate the most
league-wide interest.� Unlike his more
highly decorated running mate at OLB, Porter does have coverage skills.� This suggests he could make a successful
transition to the 4-3.� I doubt that
Gildon is so able; whether at strong-side backer or rush end in the 4-3, this
man would be forced to play the run and, as we all know, that is not his forte.� If it is true that Porter projects as the
superior 4-3 OLB, it must follow that he, sooner or later, will get a better
outside offer than Gildon could attract.�
To match, the Stillers will need to pay Porter more than Gildon.
Maybe not
immediately, but soon; this winter, the FO can stand pat by giving Joey the
highest possible tender.� LB-starved
Oakland may pony up a 1st and a 3rd but I don�t think
many other teams will.� Shortly
thereafter though, Porter will have to get paid or he will be gone.� In the long term, this defense belongs to
K-Bell, Aaron Smith, Hampton and Joey Porter; by dealing with their RFA now,
the FO can secure both the D-side future and, IMO, their finest current FA
Front 7 players.� Porter and Smith
figure to improve over the term of their next contract; past 30, neither Gildon
nor Holmes projects to do the same.�
Of course, off
2001, the time is now.� That so, the UFA
are at issue.� The Stillers had the top
ranked defense in the league last year and, on form, you�ve got expect that
they�ll stick with their system.� OLB
drive that train and so the FO has stated their intention to offer Gildon top
dollar so to pre-empt all other bidders.�
I�ve got to wonder which franchises would bidding on Big Sack.� At most, there will be (3) teams playing the
3-4 next season.� They are Pittsburgh,
Atlanta and Houston.� The Texans are
looking towards younger players; they�ve refused to consider any 30 year old on
the expansion list.� Atlanta can�t be
attractive; they are a bad team playing on a bad surface.� Maybe, a 4-3 team would ante up but how high
would they go for a player who has never performed in that system?� �
�����������������������
The Stillers
system causes them to overvalue Gildon but Earl Holmes is on the flip side of
that coin.� It has been said that Earl,
as a preeminent run-stuffer, is merely a 2-down player.� Maybe so, but isn�t stopping the run
fundamental to any attacking defensive scheme?�
The Stillers #1 overall D-side rank was built on their #1 run
defense.� Holmes was integral to that
but now it seems he will be penalized for his efficiency.� I�d rather see Holmes stuff the run
effectively and get off on third down than watch his replacement flail about
for 8,10,12 plays in succession.
It could be that
the FO is playing some version of chicken; there are a lot of big name MLB on
the FA market including Trotter, Fletcher and Sam Cowart.� Those men may soak up the big money at the
position and Earl may then be back in Pittsburgh at some bargain rate.� I doubt it, IMO, Holmes fits a 4-3 better
than Gildon; that so, the Hit-man will draw broad interest from all over the
league.
LB summary,
draft-wise:� In both years of the Colbert era, the
Stillers have grabbed starters in rounds 1 & 2.� This year, a couple superior pass-rushers project to be available
at #30; they are Napoleon Harris and Dwight Feeney.� Now, you might not wish to depend on a rookie starter at LOLB but
on paper, the talent is there.� That is
not true at MLB; there is not a player at that position worth a 1st
day pick.� While it is true that many
starting MLB are 2nd day guys, the Stillers have gotten little Day
Two help (excluding Rodney Bailey) during the reign of Colbert.� From that history, it seems that the
Stillers are more likely to draft a quality replacement for Gildon on Day One
than for Holmes on Day Two.���
Leaving the
starters aside, it remains absolutely true that the Stillers need to upgrade
their LB reserves.� I have proposed
Haggans and Kurpeikis as run-stuffers but that is not because I think they�ll
dominate inside; it is because I�m certain they don�t have it at OLB.� The Stillers need to get to get some outside
talent whether for ST next year or against the day that Porter moves on and
Gildon breaks down.
The Stillers have drafted exactly (2) defensive backs in the past (3)
seasons.� That�s
too few; hell, they�ve drafted (2) TE in the same period.� Considering that the (2) DB were Shields and
Poteat, the need is apparent.� Shields
disappeared last season; recently, he emerged in Miami where he�s running 4th
team at FS.� Poteat is, evidently, so
deep in Cowher�s kennel that he may appear on TV pumping Alpo before we ever
see him at CB.� Couple that with
Townsend�s likely departure and the Stillers inability to either man-up at
safety or cover a punt and, very obviously, DB is a pressing concern.�
Ideally, a
defensive secondary would feature (2) CB who can press, zone and support the
run and (2) safeties that can play a TE or slot receiver, cover two, blitz and,
of course, deliver in the box.� IMO, the
prototype FS is a big converted CB like Woodson or Merton Hanks; such a player
is, in essence, a nickel back whenever the base defense faces some multi-WR
set.� Alex doesn�t fit that model; nor
did his predecessor, Darrin Perry.� In
Perry�s time, the Stillers had Lake and, while listed as a SS, this man did
have the ability to cover.� Other than
Logan, the Stillers have no one on the current roster that comes close.� Logan has the size and speed I�d like to see
at SS; IMO, he�d make a fine running mate for Alex next year.� This is not to suggest that Logan is any
Lake; however, in the passed-crazed world of the NFL today, he would be an
upgrade at the SS position.
But probably not
so at FS, both Alex and Darrin contributed as DB QB; while limited
athletically, both made the players around them more effective.� Logan seems more like an athlete than a
field general; if he is best fit at SS then the need at FS remains.� Combining the two FS models, CB-like skills
with DB QB, you have a veteran player with CB ability.� With both DW and Scott locked in, the
implication is obvious. Whether in 2002 or the following season, one of these
men should move over to FS.� This argues
for drafting a CB early this year, not a safety.� That move would resonate with the Stillers 2001 efforts when the
FO drafted Hampton to play on the nose and moved KVO outside.� The Hampton pick made them better at two
positions; now, that�s value at the spot. Similarly, the right guy at CB could
shortly upgrade both that position and FS.
DB summary, draft-wise:�
While a surefire
lockdown CB is the way to go, those types are top ten guys.� There should be pretty good CB depth this
spring but, off history, the Stillers probably will be looking at the #3-5
prospect at #30 overall.� That so, the
difference between 1st and 2nd round prospects may be
slight.� There will almost surely be an
athletic safety in the Lake/Milloy mode available at #30; keep the name Lamont
Thompson in mind.� However, drafting at
safety would not give the synergy described above; if that position is a
priority, then the deep 2nd may be the spot.� If ST is the only concern, well, there will
be fast guys available on Day Two.
Interior
OL:� Most years, there are 4-5 OT prospects ranked ahead of any
interior lineman.� That�s not true now;
there are maybe (3) interior guys ranked between the top two OT and the rest at
that position.� However, OT remains the
premium spot; by draft day, the tackles probably will move up and the interior
players slide down.� That so, the
Stillers could get a very solid OG at #30.�
It is generally conceded that the O-line could use an upgrade at RG;
however, it may be that the future is already in place.� In the regular season finale, the Stillers
ran all over the Browns.� Vincent and
Ross were the guards in that game; while the Browns are neither Ravens nor
Bears, they do play in the NFL.�
Keydrick and the big O rolled the Brownies D-line that day; given their
relative youth and Russ Grimm�s outstanding coaching performance, those players
do figure to get better.
OG summary,
draft-wise:� In the best case, Faneca and Vincent are the
future at the position.� If so, the need
here (if any) is 2nd day.�
The Stillers figure to return (9) OL; most years, that�s the full roster
allotment.� Of those (9), (5) will be 2nd
or 3rd players.� That�s a lot
of youth, if the FO was correct in selecting those men, then the top draft
spots this year can go towards speed rather than bulk.���
WR:�
The Stillers have established starters now but with Edwards and Shaw in
doubt, Lenzie Jackson figures as their 3rd WR next year.� That�s not good enough; there will be value
in the top two rounds at this position and the mid-rounds could spit out a slot
man.� With or without Edwards and
Shaw, there is a need for speed here too.�
I doubt a contending team would enter a season with a rookie slot guy;
that so, the Stillers will either re-sign Shaw or find a vet elsewhere.� That said, a speed receiver remains an
option.