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Week 7 in Review

October 22, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Total yards rushing

 

Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 7 in Review:

 

 

Previous Total

This Week

Year to date

WF to date

Teams that won this category but lost their game

3rd down conversions

62-26

11-2-1

73-28-1

1.44

NYG, Packers

TOP

57-31

� 8-6

65-37

1.27

Broncos, NYG, Bears, Browns, Texans, Raiders

Total Yards Offense

54-34

�8-5-1

62-39-1

1.23

Ravens, Panthers, NYG, Texans, Raiders

Rushing Attempts

69-17-2

� 8-3-3

77-20-5

1.56

Broncos, Texans, NYG

YPA

56-31-1

10-4

66-35-1

1.30

Ravens, Packers, NYG, Texans

+2 Sacks

33-11

� 2-1

35-12

1.49

Falcons

Red Zone (Efficiency)

51-23

� 7-4

58-27

1.36

Ravens, Panthers, Packers, Browns

Red Zone (Trips)

57-17

� 6-5

63-22

1.48

Ravens, Broncos, NYG, Browns, Packers

Takeaways (>/=+2)

34-3

� 6-0

40-3

1.86

 

Takeaways (+1 only)

18-11

� 2-1

20-12

1.25

Redskins

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

  • The Ravens won a couple phases but were (-3) in TO.� Of note:� Coming into this season, the Ravens had to choose between two QB, Chris Redmond and Kyle Boller.� Redmond had (6) career starts during which he demonstrated little upside; Boller, a rookie, had no starts at all.� Boller did look awful early this season but, against the Bengals, he hit 15/27 for 302 yards.� Coach Billick made the calculation that Boller would be better at the end of this season than Redmond.� We�ll see but there are some signs suggesting that calculation was correct.

 

  • Despite Kelly Holcombe�s late heroics, the Browns went down against the Bolts.� LT had over 200 yards; that�s the second time this season that the Cleveland run-d has been whipped by an elite RB (Jamal Lewis, 295 yards rushing, Week 2).� Five other Cleveland opponents have rushed for something around 73 YPG.��

 

  • Carolina fell back early and couldn�t catch up through the air.� The Titans clogged the LOS and held the Panthers to 44 yards on just 17 carries; Carolina lost 4 fumbles in all that to go (-4) in takes.

 

  • Both the Texans and NYG beat their opponents in every phase; for instance, the NYG held the low-flying Eagles to just 134 yards total offense.� However, neither team made any big plays while the Eagles got a late PR TD and Jet Santana Moss got off against the Texans.� On the upside for Houston, they may have found a RB; Domanick Davis had +120 yards rushing and 70 receiving.� That was the first 100-yard game in Texan history.

 

  • Denver won a lot of phases but allowed (5) sacks and was (-3) in TO.� Beuerlein got knocked out and now the Broncos are down to #3 QB Danny Kanell.

 

  • The Falcons got a couple more sacks than did the Saints but you know, that Atlanta defense had 38:10 to accomplish that.� The Saints crushed the Falcons in every other phase.

 

  • Sacks are an indicator of pressure but not an exact indicator.� Buffalo was just +1 in their game against the Skins; however, the Bills put Wash-QB on the deck 12 times.

 

  • Cover 2?� The 49ers ran for over 200 yards against T-Bay making that scheme irrelevant to the outcome, 24-7 SF.

 

Steeler Index:�

 

  1. On the basis of yardage per game, the Steelers are #2 in passing defense.� However, they are 32nd in completion percentage allowed.� That�s a weird parlay; it certainly does suggest that the PS D-side is open under all day long.�

 

  1. Six opposing QB have completed 105/157 for 974 yards and 10 TD against 7 INT.� That�s a QB rating against of 86.3, which is 24th in the league.�� By means of comparison, QB like Vinnie Testaverde, Jon Kitna and Matt Hasselbeck are in the range of 85.3-88.4.

 

  1. Pull out the numbers that rookie Kyle Boller and antique Steve Beuerlein accomplished and the Steelers have permitted 4 QB to pile up 66 of 86 for 650 yards and 7 TD against 4 INT.� That�s a QB rating of 105.3, which, for an individual, certainly would be in Pro Bowl range.� By means of comparison, Peyton Manning is at 101.3, Steve McNair 106.8 and Dauntae Culpepper 114.8.� Those three are the only QB over 100.0.

 

  1. Opposing teams have gotten off 157 passes; the Steelers have (27) PD and (7) INT; that�s a HOP (hands on a pass) percentage of 21.65%.� In three years previous, the PS has accomplished 19.2% in 2000, 22.2% in 2001 and 20.2% in 2002.� Pretty much, what they�re doing is what they�ve done.� No surprise there, Troy Polamalu was to be the difference maker this season; to date, Polamalu has defended (1) ball.

 

  1. The Steelers have had problems defending TE ever since Lake moved to CB and Kirkland gained a ton but this year, opposing TE have accomplished 31 catches for 244 yards and 3 TD.� That�s all TE, two or three per game combining for 5 catches per game for 41 yards; considering the PS have faced Heap, Gonzales and Sharpe you really can�t except a lot more.� On the downside, all 3 TD have been RZ receptions; excluding Sharpe, the others (Kinney and Dunn) have been the #2 guys.� Just by way of contrast, 4 Steeler TE have combined for (0) RZ TD.

 

  1. Contract 3 Watch:� With 2 PD and 0 INT in 6 games, Dewayne Washington is T-6 on the team in HOP.� He is 4th of 4 starting DB; he is up the track from James Farrior (2 PD, 1 INT) and Jason Gildon (3 PD, 1 INT). He has matched Kendrell Bell (1 PD, 1 INT) HOP-wise and, more exactly, Aaron Smith (2 PD, 0 INT).� Yeah, that�s what you�re looking for in a $4.8M CB, a guy that�s made one more play than seldom-seen rookie Ike Taylor.

 

  1. The Steelers have (11) sacks; so, with (157) passes away, that�s a sack percentage of 6.5%.� That�s damn low; well in range of the futility we saw in 2000 (6.9%).� In 2001, this number was (9.5%), in 2002, (8.0%).� The big drop is in LB production; in 2001, the LB had 32 of 55 team sacks, in 2002 28.5/50.� In 2003 that�s 5/11 to date.� Put another way, over the past two seasons, the LB corps has approached 2 sacks per game but this year, less than 1.

 

  1. Contract 3, 2nd Watch:� With 15 tackles in 6 games, Jason Gildon is 3rd of all 4 OLB on the team; the 4th guy, Zo Jackson, has been inactive in 4 of 6 games.� However, no one in this corps is exactly tearing it up; a large percentage of Haggans� tackles as a starter were Zach Thomas stops, you know, 7 yards downfield.� As for Porter, well, the Steeler run defense has tightened since he returned but there has been zero uptick against the pass, either with respect to coverage or pressure.

 

  1. Steeler opponents have 154 run attempts, passed 157 and sustained 11 sacks.� So, 154 runs called against 168 passes called or 48% run to 52% pass.� The Steelers have run 161 times, passed 218 and sustained 20 sacks.� So, 161 runs called against 238 passes or 40% run to 60% pass.� Balance counts; the Steelers have had that in three games: Baltimore, Cincinnati and Denver.� They�ve won 2 and were somewhat competitive in the other

 

  1. Tommy Maddox�s QB rating is a very mediocre 75.3; the Steelers are near the bottom in RZ offense but if Spike catches that RZ flip in KC and a GL strike against the Titans, and JR hauls in that 19-yard strike in Denver, the Steeler RZ conversion rate goes up from 7/22 to 10/22 and Maddox�s QB rating goes up 6.6 points to 81.9.� What�s the point?� Well, change those three plays and both the Steeler pass game and RZ stats edge towards respectability.� That can�t be said of the run game; alter about 30 plays and now we�re talking.

 

  1. � The Rams game will be #1000 in PS history.� Through 999, the Steelers are 488-490-21.

 

Next Opponent:

 

To beat the Rams, you have to beat up the Rams, on both sides of the ball.� As is well known, the Ram pass attack is all about timing; if their WR can get off the LOS clean, it�s all over.� You may recall that in the 2001 SB, the Pats defeated the Ram attack by pressing their WR on most downs.� NE showed a lot of looks, 5, 6, 7 DB but the constant was pressure on the flanks.� Of course, the Pats had one superior safety (Lawyer Milloy) and one superior athlete at safety (Tebucky Jones).� That tandem gave those Pat CB some small margin of error; the Steelers can�t match that set but they�ve got to find a way to press anyhow.� Physically, Townsend and Polamalu are the best match-ups against the Ram 3-5 guys; however, as Polamalu has rarely approached the LOS this season, we won�t be seeing that match.

 

Blitzing won�t cut it; since his team collapsed in 2002 and then suffered through their 2003 opening day debacle against the NYG, Coach Martz has discovered that balance counts.� So, the Rams are running it 30-40 times a game (even without Marshall Faulk) and they�re using a lot of max protect to give their young QB, former 6th round guaranteed nothing Mark Bulger, some considerable comfort zone.� Bulger is passing effectively; Lamar Gordon is running fairly effectively.� Add an outstanding OT duo in Orlando Pace and Kyle Turley and it figures to be coverage and takeaways or nothing at all for the PS Sunday; place your bets accordingly.

 

On the other side of the ball, the Rams are swift but small.� Beyond Jimmy Kennedy, who doesn�t play, the Rams have no 300# D-lineman; their CB, J. Butler and Travis Fisher are both 5-10, their FS, oldster Aeneas Williams is 5-9.� The Steelers should be able to win downfield but, of course, they can�t go downfield until they can protect their QB.� Here, the match is between the Ram DE, hyper-swift Leonard Little and Grant Wistrom against the Steeler OT de jour.

 

Then there�s the run game: beyond question, the best way to defend the Ram offense is to keep that off the field.� That�s been the PS strategy for years now but when you�re 28th in the league rushing, that�s a tough go.� Now, Jerome Bettis is going to start; Eddie Bouchette (the real insider) has some AFC personnel guy stating (to paraphrase):� � that run game doesn�t look the same without Bettis.�

 

Well, it�s true that the run game doesn�t look the same and it�s true that Bettis hasn�t played much.� Whether or not there�s any direct causation in that is surely open to question.� We�ll find out; it seems the PS will pound it, running to set up the pass.� That�s a flawless strategy, if you�ve got the personnel but if not, not.

 

Of all opponents upcoming, the Rams seem to be the most susceptible to the run.� They�re near the bottom, allowing 4.8 YPC.� After that, well, Seattle is doing a fairly good job against opponent ground games as, surprisingly, is SF.� Still, one game at a time; the Steelers have a real shot against St. Louis if they can establish a 50/50 pass/run mix with, say, 3.7 YPC.� That�s a modest goal but far in excess of what they�ve achieved to date.

 

Appendix:

 

To get new readers (if any) up to speed, those results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.� After that, some explication of means and method:

 

 

Regular season 2002

Winning Factor (WF)

Total yards rushing

168-67-5

1.40

TOP

176-63-1

1.47

100 yard rushers

84-37

1.39

>/= +2 Takeaways

107-13

1.78

YPA

186-48-6

1.55

 

This stat analysis is a simple counting exercise; whatever merit it may have resides in identifying key indicators.� For positive benefit, any given stat has to show a W/L mark in excess of 50%; another way of saying this is that, if any given stat correlates to wins at merely a 50/50 pace, well, that�s just chance and so that stat can�t be described as significant.� The column head above, Winning Factor (WF) purports to deal with this.

 

WF is an index figure easily calculated for any category; it is the result of dividing all victories by � of all games.� A 50/50 mark (or, as it�s said, a .500 win percentage) would be reflected here with a WF of 1.0; as noted, that�s fairly worthless. Just so, a mark of, say, 16-0 would be shown as 2.0.� That�s the top end; we�re looking for positives so the range always will be between 1.0 and 2.0.� There�s no mystery to this feature, it�s just a convenient notation.�

 

To range the field, consider WF in terms of any team�s 16-game regular season agenda.� In this analogy, we imagine wins at increments of 0.125, win-wise.�� That is:

�

  • As noted, a 1.0 amounts to 8-8.

 

  • So, 1.25 might be equivalent to a 10-win season (eg. 8 x 1.25); that is, this factor may be as a powerful as any 1st round type playoff team.

 

  • 1.50 might be equivalent to a 12-4 team, that is, a probable bye team and a likely contender.

 

  • 1.75 amounts to 14-2 in this exercise, and that�s a SB favorite.

�

Put another way:

 

  • The range between, say, 1.0 and 1.3 or so indicates a stat that really isn�t too significant, in championship terms.� By analogy, this is an 8 to 10 win kind of range and, as we all know, that�s in the area of playoff no-show and first round fodder.

 

  • Last year and this (to date), we�ve seen a cluster of stats in the area of 1.40; 0.05 either way may be described as a �standard good.�� By analogy, this range signifies a solid 11-win type unit.

 

  • Near and just past 1.5 is contender range; after that, juggernaut.
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