Buccaneers at Steelers Preview
By CK Stiller
Steelers Passing Game
Tampa has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. In all categories, they rank near the bottom. Opposing QB�s have racked up a QB rating of 99.6 and It�s easy to see why when you look at the number of TD�s allowed (21), compared to the number of times they�ve picked off the opponent (5). The reason for the lack of success is obvious - they have no pass rush. Tampa has a league-low 14 sacks. Simeon Rice is gone for the season, but had been quiet all year long, anyway. This is a group of scrubs up front. I expect an easy day for Roethlisberger, who will have one of his vintage stat lines of 20 or so attempts, 200+ yards, 1-2 TD�s, and most importantly, 0 INT�s. The game manager crowd will have a field day.
The only problem I can foresee is if the Bucs decide to go away from their normal tendencies, and try to blitz the Steelers heavily. It isn�t there style, but with Rice gone, and the clear success the Ravens had the week before, it is possible. The blitz has given this OL fits all year long. I expect the Steelers to be fully prepared for it this week, though. If it happens, they should be able to handle it.
The play-action is significant to shredding this defense. It should be working; especially early on. The undersized Bucs will be expecting, and getting a heavy dose of the run. It makes the blitzing scenario even less likely. The Bucs will most likely have to cheat with their safeties, and that will lead to disaster.
The best blueprint for the Steelers passing game against the Bucs was the playoff game last year versus the Colts. They worked the middle of the field over a good deal, especially early. Miller and El both caught passes on crossing patterns in the center of the field. They also tried, and hit successfully some skinny posts. In particular there was a very big connection to Ward that led to their second TD in the first quarter. The Steelers will take their shots deep off the play-action, such as with the 40 yard play hit to Miller to start the game, or the attempted deep pass to Randle El. The Steelers will need to run the ball for this to work, obviously. I also wouldn�t be shocked if the Steelers get a huge screen play at some point, either.
Steelers Run Game
Willie Parker will have a big day. The Steelers have to love their OL playing against one of the most undersized, and undermanned defensive lines in the league. The Steelers will be able to build a solid early lead, and pound the Bucs into submission for the rest of the day. Ellis Wyms inside is banged up, and has missed the past three games. I expect to see Simmons dominate Hovan inside, and this is probably the only match-up that is even close. The LB�s here are small. When the Steelers get to the second level, heads will roll. This defense will make the Steelers OL look far better than it really is, especially when their offense will keep putting them back on the field�
Steelers Pass Defense
Joey Galloway could potentially pose some problems. They love to throw it deep to him, and will take several shots. It worked for other teams, and they try it every game, anyway. For the most part, the Bucs are a dink-and-dunk offense that lacks any explosiveness. Even if Galloway can get open deep, I don�t think Gradkowski can get him the ball. His arm is just too weak. If your passing game goes for the short stuff, you can expect a lower sack rate. They have allowed just 21 sacks so far this season. This OL is shaky, though. The Steelers may not get many sacks to improve their total, but they should pressure the rookie into a few mistakes. After avoiding them in his first few games, he has had 5 in his last 3 starts. The Steelers haven�t intercepted a QB in 4 games (since Oakland). That should change this week.
Steelers Run Defense
Won�t be tested much, nor will it matter. This Bucs OL is below average, and they have been unable to get their run game going at all this season as they�ve frequently been playing from behind (which should be the case this week) and they can�t move the chains. The Buccaneers have one of the worst time of possession averages in the league. When you gain just 14/15 first downs a game, it�s going to kill your defense and prevent you from establishing anything.
Prediction: A big blowout. The Steelers control every match-up in this game, and Cowher has generally dominated these Bucs teams, and it�s easy to see why. His teams are generally designed to break cover-2 defenses, and the Bucs have never really had much offense. The Steelers are still the Super Bowl champs, and I believe they do still have some pride�even if didn�t show last week.
Final Score: Buccaneers 9, Steelers 31