Steelers vs. Cinci, By the Numbers....by STEEL PACKAGE

Steelers vs Cincinnati � By The Numbers

By SteelPackage

 

Once again less than optimal weather conditions were present at Heinz field much like last week against Miami when the Steelers slogged their way to a 3-0 victory.  Game conditions affected play as well this week but Pittsburgh manages to hold in-spite of themselves for a 24-10 victory in another game marred by Steelers turnovers, miscues and generally sloppy play.  

 

 

Play-calling:

 

Arians came out with probably his most effective play calling of the year in the first half.  With Santonio Holmes out a second consecutive week Arians shortened up the passing game after attempting to take some deep shots on the first two series.  Ben visibly bothered by the wet conditions had his passes sailing on him with a pick off a deflected pass to Hines in the first series.  Starting on the 4^th possession Arians mixed pass and runs to perfection spreading the offense with 3 and 4 wide receiver sets and leaving the team with make-able 1^st down opportunities.  (Note 10 of 11 plays were run from zebra or eagle formations).  This trend continued and culminated with an 11 play drive for TD to end the half.  All plays were passes run primarily from multiple receiver sets utilizing motion, slants, screens and rollouts to keep the defense off balance.  Great play calling on this drive.

 

In the second half, nursing a 17-7 then later 24-10 lead Arians reverted to a conservative grind it out on the ground game plan.  Three of the four initial drives resulted in fumbles or near fumbles by Willie Parker but Arians kept going back to the well.  How do you explain the logic for what is akin to playing Russian Roulette?  Other than Pittsburgh trying to protect their lead and less than favorable field position on drive 8, nothing stands out.

 

Drives 11 and 12 started deep inside Pittsburgh territory with Arians choosing to keep it on the ground and drive 13 were 2 kneel-downs to end the game.  This skews the final stats, but other than drive 9 which resulted in a TD to Ward, almost everything was exclusively on the ground.  Second half play selection resulted in 22 runs and only 8 passes executed from primarily 2 TE or 2 WR sets (Tiger and Regular). 

 

Overall, Arians called one of his more effective games utilizing the spread offense on nearly half their designed plays.  He incorporated some no-huddle along with wide receiver slants and featured the tight end more prominently in the first half.  While the run game was largely shutdown in the second half and the Parker fumbles could have cost them the game it was effective enough on their 3 long scoring drives to help keep the chains moving and ultimately churn out a win.  It wasn�t pretty but a win nonetheless.

 

Drive	Play Selection		Personnel Packages RB-WR-TE:							Motion	Bunch	Negative Plays
			Zebra	Tiger	Reg.	E	U	Y	Eagle
	Run	Pass	131	122	221	230	212	203	*4*
1	1	3	1		3							Interception
2	2	1			1	1	1					Faneca (false start)
3	1	2	2		1							Simmons (unnecessary roughness)
4	7	4	9		1				1	2	2
5	2	2		1	1				2		1
6	0	11	6	3					2	5	1
Half-Time
7	1	2	3								1	Parker Fumble -- Reversed
8	2	0		1	1							Parker Fumble
9	5	5	2	2	3			1	2	1
10	2	0		2								Parker-1 near miss(challenge)+1 Fumble
11	4	1		5						1	1	Interception (safety overturned previously)
12	6	0		2	2		1		1
13	2	0						2				Note: 2 kneel downs to end the game.
Totals	35	31	23	16	13	1	2	3	8	9	6

Note: I created a table to chart what formations were called by drive.  The names designate typical NFL personnel packages.  For example �Eagle� refers to any play utilizing a 4-WR set.  I also indicate the run/pass mix along with any negative plays, more commonly known as drive killers.  Drives resulting in points are in BOLD.

 

I�ve also added the following columns:

�         Motion - indicates plays when a receiver was in motion prior to the snap

�         Bunch - indicates bunched receiver sets also know as the dreaded �receiver triangle�

 

 

 

Winning Stat Indicators:

 

            Defined as what statistics that matter the most to NFL head coaches.

 

1. Yards Per Attempt (YPA)

Note: I include sacks and lost yards in the totals since they are technically pass plays

1. Pittsburgh  - 32 attempts for 184 net yards = 5.8 YPA   
2. Cincinnati  - 45 attempts for 175 net yards = 3.9 YPA   (4.0 YPA not including sacks)
1. Average Starting Field Position
   1. Pittsburgh � PIT 26 (13 drives --  1 drive starting on CIN 20)
   2. Cincinnati � CIN 44 (13 drives --  3 drives starting on PIT 28, 25,17)
2. Red zone efficiency
   1. Pittsburgh � 3 out of 4 --  75%
   2. Cincinnati � 1 out of 3 --  33%

Note: Cincinnati was in immediate scoring position on three drives starting from Pitt 28, 25 and 17 yard line resulting in only 3 points.

4. Explosive Plays

The theory is the more yardage a team can gain the fewer chances there are to mess up on a long drive.  Defined as a run > 10 yards and a pass > 20

1. Pittsburgh � 1 play   (Parker run for 12 yards, longest reception Ward for 19 yards)
2. Cincinnati � 2 plays  (Dorsey run for 15 yards and �Ocho Cinco� reception for 24 yards)
4. 1^st Down Success 

Most important down in a series and most numerous call in a game.  Success defined as gaining 3 or more yards and will keep the offense in makeable 3^rd down situations

1. Pittsburgh � 26 opportunities (16 Run and 10 Pass plays) for a success rate of 58% (15 of 26)

�         Pitt ran on 10 consecutive first down opportunities to close out the game.

2. Cincinnati � 22 opportunities (11 Run and 11 Pass plays) for a success rate of 45% (10 of 22)

�         Cincinnati was only 2 of 10 (20%) coming down the stretch

 

Pittsburgh wins YPA, Red zone and 1^st down success but loses the battle of field position.  Credit the Steelers defense with preventing Cincinnati scoring points even though they were �handed� great field position most of the game.

 

1.        

 

Summary:

 

Once again Pittsburgh came out sputtering with Roethlisberger�s customary early turnover as well as other miscues on offense but Ben was able to overcome the wet conditions to lead the team to three long scoring drives during the middle portions of the game.  Hines Ward had a monster game and set the Steelers career mark for TD receptions; hats off to Hines.  Cedric Wilson and Heath Miller were also major contributors to the passing attack.  Bruce Arians play calling was excellent as a whole but he reverted back to �turtling� in the 2^nd half in order to maintain a lead.  However, Pittsburgh�s running game can�t be counted on at this point to run out the clock.  Blame it on the O-Line, Parker or the play calling to a lesser extent but the running game is turning out to be a major disappointment on offense.  Add in the mysterious reappearance of Parkers fumbling and this game was more of a �nail biter� than it should have been.  It seems that nothing comes easy for the Steelers recently.

 

While watching the Ravens game last night it confirmed to me the power running element (I�m not talking fat back) of the Steelers attack is missing.  Parker is on pace to rush the ball 381 times this season and has 40 more carries than the next closest back.  Parker is a tough runner for his size, but he can�t manufacture yards after contact.  He�s limited by the holes the line can create and he doesn�t have the vision to make something out of nothing.  The fact the team stuck with Parker after his 4 fumbles is an indictment to me the cupboard is bare at RB.  And yes, I�m aware Davenport was out for the game.  Even though Tomlin stressed the importance of having two quality backs on the roster we frankly don�t have them.  Davenport is not a complement to Parker, but supplements the team in areas such as third downs, being most effective in the open field when he can get up a head of steam.  Gary Russell is a rookie and it�s obvious he will not get many carries with this coaching staff.  This team absolutely needs someone who can get 5-10 carries a game to relieve the burden on Parker. 

 

So it all comes back to Parker down down the stretch and I�m not feeling too confident we�re going to run the ball in road playoff games in January.  This area will absolutely have to be addressed in the off season otherwise Willie�s not going to make to the end of his contract without �the wheels falling off�.

 

With the running game faltering look for Pittsburgh to rely more then ever on Ben�s arm and a healthy set of receivers, do you hear me Santonio, to make things happen.  And it will be most incumbent upon Arians to design schemes to take advantage of this while not getting his franchise QB killed in the process.  If this week was any indication he�s definitely on the right track.

 

 

Additional Note:

 

For those interested, I�ve added a table to chart Parkers performance over the year.  It includes 1^st half yards and carries as well as game ending totals.  Some factoids:

�         Parker is averaging 4.0 yards on his 1^st half carries vs. 3.6 yards on his 2^nd half carries

�         Total yardage is split almost evenly with 539 yards in the 1^st half and 554 yards in the 2^nd

�         Over the last 4 games against not the stiffest competition Parker is averaging 3.3 yards per carry

Opp	Game	Parker
		1st half		Total
		carries	Yds	carries	Yds
Cle	Game 1	11	43	27	109
Buf	Game 2	13	70	23	126
SF	Game 3	11	79	24	133
Ari	Game 4	9	8	19	37
Sea	Game 5	10	17	28	102
Bye	Game 6
Den	Game 7	10	48	21	93
Cin	Game 8	12	79	22	126
Bal	Game 9	16	27	23	42
Cle	Game 10	11	74	25	105
Jets	Game 11	8	23	21	52
Mia	Game 12	11	42	24	81
CIn	Game 13	10	29	28	87
	Totals	132	539	285	1093