Ravens at Steelers (Game #8)

I�m a lot more worried about a Steelers victory than Vegas. The Ravens are getting most of their players back, with the exception of Heap and McAlister (both are questionable as I write this). Ogden and Pryce will play, though both may only see limited action.

The Ravens really do match up well against the Steelers no matter how one breaks it down. This Ravens defense matches up well against just about anyone, though. When the Ravens are dictating to you, they are pretty much unstoppable. When they�re sitting back and more static�well, they�re still really good. There aren�t many weaknesses to exploit in terms of match-ups.

If there�s a weakness on this Ravens defense, it�s their corner depth. Especially if McAlister can�t play. They only really have two reliable cover men outside - their two starters. Corey Ivy is a nice football player. He�s intense, likes to hit, and has a knack for making plays. However, he�s seriously lacking in athleticism. He�s small and slow. I would compare him to Tyrone Carter. If he starts, the Steelers need to attack him all day long. He can�t afford to play very aggressive. He�s going to be giving cushions.

A lot is often made of Rolle being a liability, but that speaks more of how good this defense actually is than Rolle being particularly bad. He doesn�t have top end speed at this point, and he can be beaten deep. He�s a smart player, however, and doesn�t get exploited very often. McAlister will gamble more often and is vulnerable to double moves.

If you want to throw on this Ravens defense, you need to exploit the match-ups outside. It�s that simple. Their scheme leaves their corners alone most of the time, and they are going to give you cushions. They will have one deep safety against the Steelers (Mr. Ed Reed). Landry will be up in the box acting like another LB. The movement and activity inside makes it difficult to read who is coming and who is dropping. They have to concede underneath routes on the perimeter. Comebacks will be there most of the day, and when there�s time, so will fades and deep outs/ins.

This DL knows how to get up field. Pryce is a great interior pass rusher. He�ll be coming in mostly on passing downs. He is the sort of guy who will give Simmons fits, and Colon may struggle with him, as well. You then have Suggs, who is an elite edge rusher. He has everything you look for in a top DE, but he stands up and gets better angles than most DE�s will. Smith has his work cut out for him. The third pass rusher of concern is Bart Scott, who is one of the better 3-4 pass rushers. He can and will take on blocks. He has the speed and power to take the edge, but can work inside, as well. These are the sorts of players the Steelers need Woodley to become. Inside, both Ngata and Gregg do a good job getting up field and creating pressure. The same can be said for their back-ups. This whole DL knows how to get after it, and that�s a problem.

I don�t like any of the match-ups up front particularly well. These are good pass rushers in their own right, but the scheme makes them elite. The Ravens will blitz the Steelers and they�re going to confuse you. They give too much movement pre-snap and show too many different looks to pick-up consistently. Roethlisberger is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. Rarely will he have a clean pocket to work from.

There is one look I feel confident in giving the Ravens. The no-huddle out of the shotgun. The Steelers best personnel match-ups are 3 WR�s, 1 TE, and 1 RB. Roethlisberger has to make the right calls on the line. Audibling is very important in this game. The Ravens are going to give looks Arians isn�t going to expect. He needs to be able to see the field. The Ravens will be applying pressure at both guard spots, so he needs to be given area to work with.

Spreading the field gives other advantages. For one, it forces the Ravens to reveal more of what they�re running. You need to account for the man lined up outside and it can show you who is blitzing and who is sitting back. Motion is key, as well. Both will allow Roethlisberger to make easier reads.

I like Davenport to see some significant playing time. Parker just can�t be trusted to pick up the blitz like he can. Davenport can catch out of the backfield and has shown the ability to run the draw well. All are key for this game.

The Ravens are among the worst in the league at defending TE�s. The Steelers have been exceptional throwing to the TE�s. Miller will have isolation routes on these LB�s. I would like to see some corner routes in this game.

I keep Ward in the slot for much of this game. The Steelers like to have him there in the spread formations, anyway. Washington can stretch the field more than Ward can. Washington needs to step up and play. Roethlisberger needs to have faith in him. Their timing needs to be down. Washington can make plays deep. We�ve seen it. We know what Holmes brings. These two guys outside on Rolle and Ivy can make plays for the Steelers. The Ravens are allowing far more big pass plays than last year.

Reed will gamble. So will McAlister. The Steelers will try a few double moves in this game. They tried them last year with no success. The OL HAS to hold. Teams get in more trouble trying this against the Ravens than anyone else because guys have a habit of coming in untouched. They love to bring their nickel back off the edge. It�s a gamble.

I bring out two TE sets in the redzone more than in the rest of the field. Even with Spaeth, I don�t like the match-ups as much. Spaeth is young and does not handle pass pro well. He gets beaten on the edge often, and the Ravens have a tendency to confuse guys. Miller is almost a liability. And attacking the middle of the field is just dangerous against this team. That�s where they get their turnovers.

The keys to the Steelers pass game, as I see it, are the following:

1. No huddle and spread the field. 3 wides, 1 TE, and Davenport.

2. Get rid of the ball quickly. Force this defense to stop blitzing and to play off. Ryan has a habit of getting soft if he�s beaten deep or getting picked apart. Once the Steelers start dictating on offense how this Ravens defense will play, the offense opens up.

3. Exploit the isolation routes outside. Try to stay away from the middle of the field. That�s where these team creates turnovers (whether it�s through hits or jumping routes). Go routes, in/outs, comebacks, skinny posts, hitches/bubble screens�those are the ways to attack this team.

The Steelers are clearly going to need to run to set-up whatever rushing attack they can muster this week. I already said I want to see Davenport get on the field more this game for pass pro. The best way of attacking this Ravens team early are draws. The Steelers have a lot of ways of running them.

The Steelers will be running a lot of those bubble screens, I would imagine. They�ve been using them more and more, and teams like to run them against the Ravens. They give cushions a lot, and you need to get rid of the ball fast. These really do pretty much count as runs. The Steelers can pick up consistent, free yardage here. 3-4 yards is never a bad thing. These will help set up draws, as well. The Steelers like to fake the throw outside and hand-off.

The Ravens are not the stoutest against the run. They like to get up field. Their primary concern is penetration. Ngata is a big guy, but he gives ground consistently in the ground game. Gregg offers a bit more, but it�s basically the same deal. Whether Mahan and Simmons are the guys to do it, I�m not sure. Later in the game, there may be some opportunities to see. The more this defense is on the field, the easier it will obviously become to run.

Colon did well on Pryce in the run game last year. Smith and Faneca can move Ngata. These LB�s get to the ball quickly, though, and there�s usually a defender who isn�t accounted for or someone penetrating up field to throw everything off.

If the Steelers can get the Ravens to respect the pass, to stop blitzing, and tire them out, they will have some success running late.

The Steelers can�t throw the same old, same old against these guys. McNair has proven he can beat them if they do. He was able to avoid pressure well last year the few times it hit home, and avoided making tough reads by throwing outside.

The Steelers need to be more aggressive outside against these receivers. Clayton and Mason simply aren�t scary. Anthony Smith should be starting again this week. Smith should have one job. Punish these guys if they try and throw deep. Mason lacks the speed to get deep; Clayton the awareness and toughness. I see no reason to not play them tighter then last year. Get a jam on them and keep them from getting a lot of those cheap completions. McFadden needs to play more confident than last year.

I play a lot of underneath zone, and man up outside. Let Polamalu play up in the box all game. I may give some cover 2 when they go three wide (which may be often, if they are lacking both TE�s).

When the pressure comes, it should come off the edges. Keep McNair in the pocket. Make sure you take him down or hang on. Delayed blitzes have had the most success landing home on these guys.

There aren�t so many positive match-ups in the passing game. The Ravens dink and dunk, so if you blitz they�re going to get rid of the ball. Their OL has good technique across the board. I don�t know what it is, but they do a good job in this area consistently. They�ve been rotating guys in at tackle all year. It�s hard to even predict who the Steelers will see at each spot. They�ve all done a pretty good job.

If Heap doesn�t play, we all know they�re in trouble. They have no one else who really intimidates a defense. Mason is a guy who has racked up a lot of catches. He�s the sort of guy who will make that grab on third down�only a yard or two shy of a first.

Demetrius Williams worries me a bit. The Ravens are likely to try and test the Steelers corners deep. Williams is athletic. Ike Taylor is, too. What Taylor doesn�t do a good job of is locating the ball and playing it in the air. Williams is exceptional at attacking the football at its highest point. If the QB can deliver him an accurate football, it could be trouble. That�s a big if, though. The Steelers have done a good job forcing guys to cough up the football on deep routes. Smith has great range and ball skills. He can undercut a route, or throw a huge hit that will rattle any receiver.

I expect the Steelers to have a lot more success than last year. They simply have to. Last year was embarrassing. There is no excuse for letting this offense move the ball.

Avoid the big play. Don�t blitz. There�s no reason to gamble. This offense has a habit of killing its own drives with penalties or turnovers. Play a tight zone with 7 men and force McNair to make smart, accurate throws.

If anything can screw up this entire game, it�s the run defense. Eason was dominated last week against the Bungals. Hampton was consistently doubled. Terry and Ogden have both shown the ability to control Keisel. Terry will dominate Eason. Of that I have no doubts.

LG Brown and center Mike Flynn are a very good duo in the run game. They consistently knock people off the ball. They showed the ability to move Hampton last year in both meetings. This is the reason the Steelers have to bring an extra defender down to play the run. Smith is the only one on this line who held his own last year. I don�t know what they�ll do if he can�t go.

If there�s one thing that I like better than last year, it�s the presence of Willis McGahee. Against most teams, McGahee is a better back than Lewis. This is a man blocking team. Lewis needs to explode through the hole, and he just could not do that. He�s just too slow. However, he runs very hard. McGahee does not. McGahee is a guy who relies on cutting and speed. The Steelers DL was controlled at the point of attack, and the LB�s were getting to him one at a time in space. They could not take him down by themselves. He made each of the Steelers LB�s look stupid a few times. McGahee is really kind of soft. A bit more explosive, but only somewhat. If Smith goes, the Steelers have a better chance of slowing this ground attack down. If he doesn�t? Well, the defense could be in for a long day, and I�ll be hoping for FG�s instead of TD�s.

This is the game Sepulveda was drafted for. I wrote on the impotence of Gardocki last year in the two meetings against the Ravens. If the Steelers offense struggles, I feel confident that at the least they have a guy who can reset field position for them. They can�t be handing the ball to the Ravens at the 40 like last year. If you give this team 70-80 yards to drive, they will end up settling for FG�s, punting, or turning it over. All are better results than the Steelers had last year.

The Ravens coverage teams aren�t too good. They have a pretty good return game. They can create a spark on punt returns by sticking Ed Reed back there. Last week there were holes in the kicking game. It�s the reason Colclough was cut and Madison was signed. Hopefully they can fix the issue this week.

The Ravens have a good punter and an excellent kicker. Fix the damn kick-off coverage.

This is the biggest game of the year for the Steelers. If they lose, the division is blown wide open. The same may be true next week against Cleveland. However, it will be very difficult to go in to Baltimore and come out with a victory. The Steelers need to defend home field this week. It�s also significant to show the entire league that the Steelers can handle the blitz. If the Ravens rough this offense up, teams will attack them like that all year long. Teams like the Pats will attack the Steelers very aggressively if they see the Ravens have success.