2005 Game 14 Preview

December 16, 2005 by Steel Phantom

2005 Game 14 Preview

The Steelers, ears ringing still from their last time indoors, meet the Minnies under their Metrodome. Both teams are 8-5, as are many others. Presently, Pittsburgh stands 6^th in the AFC sweeps, first among three 8-5 squads. The Vikings are 8^th in the NFC, 3^rd of three that are, similarly, eight up and five down. Of note: Minnesota is 5-1 at home but they haven�t beaten anyone, either there or away. Their SOV (strength of victory) mark is .337, worst of all 18 teams still in contention. Even that is better than they deserve, fattened by this season�s most improbable win, (3) return TD having provided their margin over the Giants in the Swamplands.

It�s been a tale of two seasons in the Twin Cities. An early favorite for the NFC crown, Minnesota opened 2-5. Pundits, presumably enraged at their prophecies crossed, put it on Moss� departure to Alameda, or that OC Scott Linehan had moved to Miami, or the Love Boat, or Coach Mike�s constant cupidity. Whatever. Of course, none of that mattered. As usual it was all about the turnovers. The short form:

� On the season, Minnesota is (+6) in takeways.

� Over their 6-game winning streak, they are (+14). Included in that, four near-sure winners: (+2) v. Detroit, (+4) v. NJG, (+3) v. Cleveland and (+4) v. St. Louis.

� In opening 2-5, they were (�8) in takeaways. Setting aside their Week 3 win against the hapless, homeless Saints, when they were (4) to the good, in achieving 1-5, the Minnies gave (12) more than they got. That includes: (5) turnovers Week 1 v. Tampa Bay and (5) more Week 2 v. Cincinnati. Those eclipsed another (3) Week 4 v. Atlanta.

(+2) or better yields a winning factor (WF) of 1.83. The Vikings have won (5) when they�ve reached +2 and lost three when that edge cut the other way. No surprise there, and nothing that Viking fans haven�t seen before. Look:

Good Duante, bad Duante, good Duante, bad Duante, good Brad:

Season	W/L	QB	TD	INT	Fumbles	FL	Total TO by QB
2000	11-5	Culpepper	33	16	11	6	22 in 16 games
2002	6-10		18	23	23	9	32, 2 per game
2004	9-7		39	11	9	4	15 in 16 games
2005	2-5		6	12	5	3	15 in 7 games
2005	6-0	Johnson	7	2	4	2	4 in 6 games

Note:

Figures shown for Brad Johnson are limited to his 6 starts.

As Culpepper has gone, so have the Vikings but Brad Johnson isn�t that kind of QB. He�s not as good as Culpepper, at his best, or so horrific as Culpepper, at his worst. Johnson is a caretaker, one indicator being that all 7 passing TD have come in 3 starts. Regardless, low risk mode does give these Viking their best chance to win. They don�t have the offensive firepower, but their defense can get it done. Commencing on that side:

D-side comparison, Minnesota:

PPG

YPG

Plays faced

Rush

YPC

Pass

YPA

v. QB

Rating

Sack %

Takes

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

18.0

297.3

824

#20

3.4

T-1

6.56

#14

75.2

#12

7.9%

T-13

41.2%

#25

864

#29

Vikings

22.0

#22

329.2

#26

844

#29

4.1

#21

6.46

71.0

6.1%

#21

T-2

42/3%

#30

781

#16

The Vikings takeaway mark jumps out. Of those (32), (21) have come in the past six games. However, of those (21), (16) occurred in three tilts. QBs so victimized include: Eli Manning (now #23 in passer rating), Trent Dilfer (now #21 in passer rating) and two rookies, Charlie Frye and Ryan Fitzgerald. Roethlisberger is not a rookie; he is one of three QB with a passer rating exceeding 100.

After a hot start, the PSD take rate has dropped sharply. At this point, that unit is in the middle of the pack.

Vikes D-personnel:

Last week, the Steelers got their run game untracked as, astonishingly, Jerome Bettis rushed for 100 in H2. That figure very nearly matched his total in 17 prior (active) halves. Off that, the Bus was named AFC O-side player of the week and, if only on a guts basis, this was well deserved. However, Bettis wasn�t the key factor; Jeff Hartings was.

Like the Bears, the Vikings play the UT variant of the 4-3. NT v. OC is always the key v. this set. Last week, Hartings destroyed Bear NT Ian Scott. For the PS to run effectively this week (and they must), he�ll have to neutralize x-Bill Pat Williams, a player far more powerful than Scott. UT Kevin Williams returns, having missed the last two with injury. A 3rd year man, Williams, with (22) sacks in his first two years in the League, had established as a quality inside rusher. However, Williams had knee surgery off-season and is not, as yet, returned to form. He has just (1) sack this year; backup rook CJ Mosley has (3).

Darrion Scott starts at LDE but will drop inside in passing situations, as will his backup, Spencer Johnson. Scott lacks bulk and elite athleticism but he is a good football player. R1 rook Erasmus James opens at RDE; James was drafted as a pass rusher but has produced just (2) sacks and correspondingly little pressure. The Vikes best rusher is a situational type, the ageless Lance Johnstone. Johnstone has (6.5) sacks in twelve games. In the two full seasons prior, he and Williams combined for (43). Like James, Johnstone is a liability against the run

The Vikings have invested in their LB corps, but they�ve gotten little return. Each year, from 2002 thru 2004, they drafted LB R2; additionally, they got former Raider R1 Napoleon Harris in the Moss deal. Despite all that, they felt the need to pick up two more LB in last winter�s FA market. Good thing too as those guys, Sam Cowart and Keith Newman, quickly established as starters. Now, Newman is out so either Harris or Raonall Smith will get the go. Here�s the deal: the Vikes young backers: Smith, Harris, EJ Henderson and Dontarrious Thomas, all have some athleticism but none know where they�re going. Cowart does know but, at this point, he can�t get there.

The Vikes LB aren�t getting much done but their DB are producing. By the numbers:

FS Darren Sharper came over from Green Bay last winter. In (11) games, Sharper has (8) INT, a Minnie record 265 yards in returns and (2) TD.

SS Corey Chavous can pick it too. Although shut out this season, to date, Chavous did have (8) INT two years ago.

Since returning to the starting lineup 5 games ago, RCB Brian Williams has (4) INT. Prior to this season, Williams had made 39 straight starts, commencing from his rook year, 2002. Earlier, Williams sat in favor of booty admiral Fred Smoot, but that�s all over now.

LCB Antoine Winfield is the best player in the secondary. Winfield�s INT/PD numbers aren�t great; his (4) INT this season being a career high. However, that is not because he can�t make plays; he can and therefore the ball rarely is aimed his way.

With (23) INT, the Vikings are #2 in the League. The Bengals lead with (27); #3, Denver, has (18). The Vikings have returned (3) for scores; that is T-1 this season.

Keys:

Run on-tackle right, wide left: The PS run game has been mediocre this season, in most aspects. However, they�ve been exceptional running right, either on or wide of RT Max Starks. Per Football Outsiders, they are (respectively) #5 and #3 to that side. While Starks has been overmatched in pass pro, he has been a beast in the run game. It follows that establishing run early will play to Starks� (and the Steelers�) strength, and will attenuate the Vikes pass rush. Because Winfield supports strong, Minnesota is relatively stout wide right. However, they have been gouged outside left, where Erasmus James and EJ Henderson haven�t gotten it done. It is worth noting that Cowart is increasingly ineffective playing in to out and, with Newman inactive, neither Viking OLB figures as stout against the run

Move the safeties: Same as it ever was but against Minnesota, more so. The Viking pass D is predicated on deep, deep safeties picking overthrows. True from Paul Krause through Brian Russell, and true today. If the PS can get Chavous and/or Sharper to come up, Brian Williams can be beaten over the top. Williams is a solid player but he does lack make-up speed.

Take care of the ball: the PS have fumbled (8) in the past two games but lost just (1). They�ve lost only (2) of their past (12) fumbles. That kind of luck tends to run out.

On the other side of the ball:

O-side Comparison, Minnesota and Pittsburgh

PPG

YPG

TOP

Rush

YPG

Pass

YPA

Rating

Sack %

Against

Turnovers

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

22.7

#11

314.3

#20

30:44

#12

128.7

8.64

102.2

7.4%

#21

T-6

33.5%

#28

704

#12

Vikings

18.9

#22

290

#25

29:31

#23

6.63

#21

90.9

11.5%

#31

#23

32.1%

#30

823

#25

� What are the odds? For the second straight week, the PSD faces a foe even worse converting 3^rd downs than is the PSO.

� The Vikings� sack rate against is horrendous. 6.7% is the League average. Only Houston is worse than Minnesota. However, as we�ll see below, that may be deceiving. As noted in the opening, that is so for the turnover mark shown too.

� Pass YPA and QB rating are given for Roethlisberger and Johnson, as individuals. For good reason, those are not team totals.

� Generally, the Viking-O is at the bottom of the 3^rd quartile. Far from their standard, but there it is.

Vikes O personnel:

The Vikes got some bad news early when Pro Bowl OC Matt Birk was declared out for the year. Minnesota opened with Cory Withrow at OC, then x-Brown Melvin Fowler and then back to Withrow. Withrow defaulted again and Fowler has started the past 3. They�ve had 3 starters at LG: Chris Liwienski, x-Charger Toniu Fonoti and, now, Anthony Herrera. Fonoti had it when Mwelde Moore achieved the 2005 Vikes top rush effort, 122 yards v. Green Bay. However, Fonoti is now out for the year.

Rook Marcus Johnson is making his 3^rd start at RT; he�s been bad there, and he was bad when starting at RG. MJ is in because x-Giant Mike Rosenthal can�t go. Adam Goldberg will open at RG; Goldberg is long but not quick; he is one of the Vikes� O-line troika of x-UDFA. Vice-admiral Mount McKinnie has been a constant. It is worth noting that McKinnie and Johnson are the only (now active) O-linemen the Vikings have drafted.

The five noted above have been together for the past three games. This is not a great run blocking unit but they have been fairly effective in pass pro. Look:

Vikes sack rate, parsed:

First 10 games			Last 3 games
PA	Sacks	Rate	PA	Sacks	Rate
324	45	13.8%	80	4	5%

McKinnie is ok but the PS Front should dominate every other matchup. They�d better, because, while the Vikings do not have a lead WR, or an elite receiving TE, they do distribute the ball effectively. That is a bad matchup for the Steelers; while the PSD has been exceptional defending #1 WR and, surprisingly, good v. TE too, they�ve been average or below defending WR #2 and beyond. They�ve been abysmal defending receiving RB.

Vikings� ball distribution, by position:

Position	Receptions	Remarks	% of 255 completions
WR	123	5 with 18-39. Marcus Robinson leads with 5 TD; Koren Robinson with 17.9 YPC, rook Troy Williamson has not factored since early this season.	48%
TE/H-back	77	Jermaine Wiggins leads all receivers with 57 grabs	30%
RB	55	3 with 55, including 3 TD	22%

With Mewelde Moore on the injury report, Michael Bennett figures to get his 4^th start of the season. Bennett has exceptional speed; if he splits it, he can go. However, there are durability issues associated with this player. Bennett had 1296 yards rushing in 2002; in the two plus seasons since, some set of ailments has limited him to 1072. Moore is, similarly, a small RB; he has less speed but more wiggle and, like Bennett, he is a capable receiver.

Jermaine Wiggins is Johnson�s safety valve; he lines up at H-back more than TE but, either way, (almost) never blocks. Jim Kleinsasser does, from TE or H-back. The Vikes figure to feature both in their H-back/TE version of twin tight. Finally, as noted in the opening, Brad Johnson is a capable game manager but, as indicated in the O-side stats above, he is not a big play QB. That said, he is an exceptional leader; at every stop, BJ has won and, at every stop, the man has been highly regarded by his teammates.

What to expect:

The Vikings figure to play in a low risk, ball control mode. It is highly unlikely they can establish run; therefore, expect a short, clocking pass game featuring the RB, Wiggins and with some mix of 3-wide. Excluding the Robinsons, none of the Vikings� WR constitutes a deep threat. Marcus Robinson can get separation with his size; Koren Robinson has athleticism but hands of granite. However, it is unlikely Minnesota will expose Johnson with any frequency. Therefore, except as Bennett breaks one, the Vikes don�t figure to flip the field.

Keys:

Hampton v. Fowler: the PS front 3 can dominate the Viking O-line; that starts on the nose.

Haggans v. Marcus Johnson: the last time Brad Johnson saw B& G, he hit the deck ten times. Then, 2001, Joey Porter dominated rook LT Kenyatta Walker, gaining a career high 4 sacks. Walker was then and does remain in the lower echelon of starting OT. That said, Marcus Johnson seems to be tracing an identical arc.

Dink and dunk v. bend don�t break: the Vikes present O-philosophy v. Coach LeBeau�s D-standard. As noted last week, this PSD closes against 4 of the Show�s lower watt Os. They dominated the Bears, and figure to do this Sunday too.

Back of the book:

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22
v. Jaguars	11	14	14-10	14 OT: 3	17 OT: 2	3-7 0-06	28	33	17-23
@Bengals	14	9	7-6	29	6	20-7	43	15	27-13
v. Ravens	13	19	10-10	13	15	10-9	26	34	20-19
@ Packers	9	10	13-3	16	11	7-7	25	21	20-10
v. Browns	14	21	17-7	24	8	17-14	38	29	34-21
@ Ravens	6	17	6-13	11 OT: 4	26 OT: 5	7-0 0- 3	21	48	13-16
@ Colts	14	16	7-16	10	15	0-10	24	31	7-26
v. Bengals	16	20	17-21	12	23	14-17	28	43	31-38
v. Bears	14	12	14-3	30	8	7-6	44	20	21-9

By definition:

� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.

� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.

� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.

Notes:

� The Steelers have run more than passed just 4 times in all H1. However, those were 4 of the more impressive wins this season: Tennessee, @ San Diego, @ Cincinnati and Chicago. Still, the run differential was slight; 16 total, never more than 7 in single game.

� The largest H1 unbalance came in Baltimore, Ravens 2. Surprisingly, Steelers were 11 to the pass side; no surprise, they were doomed.

� Most of the Steelers� run/pass bulge was built over 5 second halves: Tennessee, Houston, Cincinnati 1, Cleveland 1 and Chicago. The edge is 95: 125 runs and 30 passes.

� The Steelers are 7-2 in games when they�ve led at the break, 1-0 when tied and 0-3 when they�ve trailed.

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