2002 Game 4 Preview: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

 

Having earned a split in back-to-back road tilts, the 2-1 Steelers return to Heinz, where they will play 4 of their next 5 games.� That�s the good news; the bad is that, coming off their Week 7 bye, the PS will face both New England and Philly.� To be the best, you�ve got to beat the best and, no doubt, the Steelers� chances are better at home than at either Foxboro or Franklintown.� Still, those are elite teams; top two in most League power rankings.� Then too, they�ve each got accomplished QB: entering Week 4, McNabb holds the #3 spot in passer rating and Brady #5.� In contrast the PS D is midmost in a stream of bottom feeding QB, having faced Kyle Boller, with a passer rating #28 of 32 starters and AJ Feeley, #31.� This week, they get Carson Palmer, #29, next Jeff Garcia, #32.� Home games against division rivals fielding highly exploitable QB: that should be meat for any team with playoff aspirations.� In the next couple sessions we�ll gather whether these Steelers are carnivores, or cheese-eaters.

 

The 1-2 Bengals are struggling towards contention, (from their point of view) following the Panther prototype.� In 2002, the first year under John Fox, Carolina rose to 7-9, 6 wins up from a dismal 2001 1-15; following that, the Panthers appeared in the post-2003 SB.� Last year, the Bengals went 8-8, like the Panthers before, gaining 6 wins over their prior mark, 2-14 in 2002.� If Cincinnati were on the Carolina course, what with their own highly regarded defensive genius as a 2^nd year Head Coach, then they might expect their own SB berth this season.�

 

Instead, the Bengals are in danger of losing touch in the AFC North.� Two teams, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, are 2-1 there; at least one figures to win this weekend so, if the Bengals go down again, they go to two back in a division less than likely to send a wildcard forward.� Two back with twelve to go is no big deal for a proven contender but a team like Bengals could unravel.�

 

To some extent, the same is true for the Steelers.� Sure, if the PS loses Sunday, they�ll be just one back, at worst.� However, this is a team with a quartet of new starters on defense and a QB making his second start.� In this Not-For-Long, these Steelers have little record of accomplishment; of course, the same is true for the Bengal franchise so, Sunday, we�ll see two teams seeking to step from pretender to contender.� Beginning with that match-up most like last week�s stinging in the rain:

 

When the Bengals have the ball, Coach LeBeau�s defense will be facing a set similar to those Fins they thumped last week.� Like Miami�s, the Bengal O-line is beat up as:

 

• Last season, LG Eric Steinbach and LT Levi Jones formed a young, formidable combo on the Bengal blind side.� This pre-season, both missed considerable time and so struggled out of the gate.� Now, Jones is questionable for Week 4 with a knee injury nagging since last season.� If he can�t go, Steinbach will move to LT with longtime scrub Scott Kooistra moving in at LG; the Bengals might prefer to insert Larry Moore there but Moore missed last week and is questionable for this game.�

 

• OC Rich Braham went down in Game 1.� The Bengals brought in Jerry Fontenot, a longtime starter in the league.� However, Fontenot is 37; after years in New Orleans, he made his first start as a Bengal in Week 2 against the Fins, where Cincy got little done.�� Last week, the Bengals did get yards against Baltimore but, as was true in Week 2, zero TD.� Fontenot figures to be better now, with a couple weeks in the system, but he�s limited.� There is a reason that the Saints let him go.�

 

• FA Bobbie Williams has replaced Mike Goff at RG, who went (via FA) to the Bolts.� For the Bengals, that�s a step down.�

 

• Willie Anderson is a quality RT.� Reportedly though, Anderson is a nursing a balky knee, although that hasn�t appeared on injury reports.

 

In comparison to their set last season, this Bengal O-line is worse at two spots, RG and OC; if Steinbach moves out to LT, they figure to be worse at up to 4.� No wonder then that 2^nd year QB prize Carson Palmer has struggled.� Consider:

 

• In Week 1, Palmer was 18 for 27 for 248 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT.� That�s a passer rating of 105.2; a creditable performance, especially on the road where the Bengals opened against the Jersey Jets.

 

• In the following two weeks, Palmer was 46 of 80 for 463 yards with 0 TD and 4 INT.� That�s a passer rating of 53.3.

 

Overall, Palmer is rated at 60.9, #29 overall, much closer to AJ Feeley�s 57.2, #31, than Boller�s 67.1, #28.� Tabulated below, some stats from his first 3 starts:

 

	D-side takes v. Bengals	D-side sacks v. Bengals	Palmer�s YPA	Bengal scores
NJ Jets, Game 1	2 1 FF, 1 INT	1	8.5	3 TD 1 FG
Fins, Game 2	1 0 FF, 1 INT	5	2.7	0 TD 3FG
Ravens, Game 3	4 1FF, 3 INT	4	5.2	0 TD 3 FG

 

Palmer can be had mainly because Palmer�s O-line can be had; just like last week in Miami when the Fin fat guys didn�t amount to a speed bump on the way to AJ Feeley.� Of course, the Fins didn�t figure to run it at all, and that did play out.� In contrast, the Bengals do, or did coming into this year anyway, but in fact they haven�t gotten much on the ground.� At present, the Bengals are 19^th, rushing for 105.3 YPG at 3.8 YPC.� The Steelers, a team with a shaky rush attack, are 11^th, though at just 3.7 YPC.�

 

Here are the Bengals� O ground results to date:

 

	Bengals� overall rushing	Feature RB Rudi Johnson
NJ Jets, Game 1	28 carries/113 yards/ 4.0YPC	24/70/2.92 YPC Kenny Watson, 1/25
Fins, Game 2	29 carries/ 94 yards/3.24 YPC	22/67/3.01 YPC
Ravens, Game 3	26 carries/108 yards/4.1 YPC	23/98/4.26 YPC Kenny Watson, 1/10

�

Johnson is a capable back but no gamebreaker.� The Bengals figure to run often enough to keep the Steelers honest but their advantage is downfield in the pass game, where in Chad Johnson, the Steelers will have to defend the best WR they�ve faced to date. �In addition to Johnson, the Bengals have, in Pete Warrick and TJ Houshmandzadeh, two good possession receivers.� They�ve got Kelly Washington too, a WR with prototypical size and speed but, evidently, little heart for the game.�� That said, Washington did score against the Steelers� soft zone last season; similarly, Matt Schobel, one of the Bengals� TE troika of blockers, came down with the game winner, one of just three 3 TD tallied by all Bengal TE on that season.��

 

Although the Steelers are ranked 6^th against the pass, they have yet to defeat a strong air game.� The Bengals have that on paper but have yet to get that on the field.� For example, last week against the Ravens Cincy fell back early, 10-0 after about 13 minutes.� For whatever reason, Cincy abandoned the run game, putting their fate in Palmer�s hands. That day, the Bengals passed 52 times, got sacked 4 times but ran just 26.� Palmer, or maybe his protectors, failed in the crunch.� Now, Coach Lewis has seen what a +2:1 pass/run ratio (56/26) is worth; at this point, he�ll have to choose between running against a team configured to stop the run or to follow last week�s losing strategy, spread out and chuck.� I�d guess the Bengals are going to run, using the ground game to protect their neophyte QB, a strategy similar to that the PS figure to employ.� In sum:

 

• The PS ground D was gouged by the Ravens� #1 rush attack.� The PS ground D stuffed the Fins� #32 rush attack.� Getting up early, the PS took the Oakland ground game out of the equation.� Statistically, the Bengals rank just above the Raiders; out early or not, Rudi and the rest don�t figure to factor Sunday.� The wildcard could be R1 rook Chris Perry, a highly regarded workhouse back out of Michigan.� However, Perry, purportedly struggling to grasp the Bengals� protection schemes, has played little (if at all) this season

 

• Chad Johnson will get his yards; to win, the PS must defeat the Bengals� supporting receivers.� If the Bengals go to the spread, that means putting Palmer on his back.

 

• The PS beat the Raiders behind 2 INT, 5 FF and 2 FR; on the day, the Steelers were +3 in the take department.� Same in Miami, where the PS got 2 INT, 3 FF and 2 FR, another +3.� In Baltimore, the PS got no takes at all; the Steelers were �3 on the day and never really in the game.�� Palmer, Johnson and Johnson etal certainly have the ability to move the pig but off 7 gives in 3 games, they�ve spit it up too.

 

The Bengal O was effective against the Jets� defense, but that set is suspect.� Miami stuffed the Bengal O; though they did move the ball against the Ravens, the Poe-Birds pressured, picked and generally thwarted these Queen City Cats.� Both the Fin and Raven D-sides are elite but at this point, it�s difficult to characterize the Steeler D (too many new starters and too few games).� That so, if LeBeau�s group whips the Bengal O, then they may be for real, but that�s not for sure.� However, if they�re picked apart or otherwise dominated, well, that will be telling.�� On the other side:

 

When the Steelers have the ball, they�ll be facing a unit that has had problems stopping both the run and the pass.� Cincy�s woes v. the run were chronicled last week, in our Game 3 Preview.� While the Steelers were in Miami, the Bengals faced Jamal Lewis and the Raven rush; in that tilt, Cincy allowed 254 yards at 7.5 YPC, Lewis was 18/186.� Recapping:

 

• So far this season, Cincy has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in 2 of 3 games.� The Raven stats are cited above; Week 1 the Jets got 34/219/6.4 YPC; Curtis Martin was 29/196.

 

• That�s a holdover from last season where, in their final 4 games, the Bengals allowed 264, 143, 171 and 223 yards rushing.� The low YPC against was 4.6; twice, opponents ran for better than 6.0.

 

In short, the Bengals have stopped one rush attack in their prior 7 games.� That was Week 2 this year against the Fins, which is to say the Bengals haven�t stopped a NFL quality run game in quite sometime, possibly since they handed the KC Chiefs their first loss of 2003.� Why?� Well, at present:

 

• Cincinnati is thin upfront:� DT John Thornton is a quality player but his running mate, Tony Williams, is near the end.� The Bengals 3^rd DT is 2^nd year nuthin� Langston Moore; their 4^th guy, rook Mathias Askew, is a prospect but injuries have kept him off the field.� With Carl Powell down, the Bengals have just 3 healthy DE; the best, Justin Smith, is a high motor guy who pursues with purpose, but struggles to anchor.

 

• The Bengal LB corps is strong outside, with Brian Simmons at WOLB and Kevin Hardy on the strongside, but they are weak in the middle.� Last winter, Cincy brought in MLB Nate Webster, a career scrub; Webster struggled and now he�s done.� The Bengals figure to insert R3 rook Caleb Miller, a nice prospect out of Arkansas. Miller may be a player one day but having missed a lot of time in pre-season, he figures to blow some plays Sunday.�

 

• The real problem has been at safety.� Coming into the season, Cincy figured to be solid with Kim Herring and Rogers Beckett deep.� However, Herring got hurt and has yet to play a down; Beckett took a concussion Week 1.� Against the Ravens, Cincy fielded two guys that weighed in at about 190#, rook Madieu Williams and vet Kevin Kaesvihan.� That�s just too light; though Williams, coming out of Maryland last spring, was a highly regarded hitter, he was not considered a SS prospect.� Double-K is a converted CB; it�s not a surprise that neither were capable of stoning Jamal Lewis.��

 

Beckett figures to be back at SS Sunday with Williams moving over to free.� That�s a fairly good duo; Beckett has been reasonably effective in the box and Williams, having started Week 1 at CB (where he got torched) and Week 3 at SS (where he got run down) is back at his natural position.� Still, this Bengal defense is #31 against the run, having allowed 166.0 YPG.� They are #32 in YPC, having allowed 5.7 YPC.� Marvin Lewis is a defensive genius; if there were a schematic fix, he�d have installed that by now.� There isn�t; the issues are talent and depth where the Bengals are, variously, lacking and depleted.��

 

They�re not much better against the pass.� True, Cincy is ranked 8^th in terms of yards but that�s a function of their run D.� Why would any team throw when they can just roll down the field?� More telling than yards allowed, Cincy is 12^th in YPA, ok not great, and 22^nd in passer rating against, a losing 87.8.� Why?� Well:

 

• The Bengals don�t get much pressure, as evident by 5 sacks on the season.

 

• The Bengals are weak at CB; Tory James is a #2 at best and Delthea O�Neal is a suspect, good ball skills, pedestrian speed and dubious judgment.� No doubt, this is the weakest CB duo the PS has faced to date.� Woodson and Buchanon; McAlister and Baxter; Surtain and Madison: excluding Baxter, all have better credentials than the set in Cincy.�

 

As a group, the Bengal secondary is slow.� Both James and Williams have decent, not great, speed but Beckett is a liability downfield and O�Neal can�t catch-up.� NCB rook Keiwan Ratliff is similar to O�Neal, good ball skills but bad speed.� This set is made to order for a QB with Ben Roethlisberger�s ability to move, in and out of the pocket.� Expect at least one big play where Big Ben buys time until a PS WR runs away from some Bengal DB.

 

Summary:�

 

This is prove it week.�

 

• If the PS D is an elite unit, they should dominate the Bengal O whether straight-up stuffing that set, as did the Fins, or utilizing pressure to create takes, the Raven mode.

 

• If the Steelers have resurrected a run game, they should roll over the Cincy Cats.� To date, the PS have had their problems; past one 38 yard run late against the Fins, the Steelers have rushed for just 315 yards in 3 games.�� Pulling that out, the PS YPC drops from a marginal 3.7 to last season�s pitiful mark, 3.3.�

 

D�j� vu:�

 

Last season, having won a home opener and split on the road, the PS had 2 straight at Heinz.� They were whipped twice with a long time problem, defending the pass, factoring heavily in both losses.� You may remember that Steve McNair hit 15/16 and Tim Couch 20/25.� Now, well, the mark is the same, the schedule is the similar and another long time weakness, the Steeler run game, does factor.� The Steelers haven�t won even two straight since January 4 2003 when Tommy Maddox led the team back against the Browns in that PO at Heinz.� It�ll be close enough to 21 months Sunday.� Now is the time.