Draft 2003, Wrap-up

April 27, 2003 by Steel Phantom

Draft wrap-up:

Draft wrap-up:

It�s all about impact.� The Steelers keep the best and tossed the rest this weekend, method-wise and, so far as possible, with their selections.� Methodologically, they maintained their focus on big school producers early; that�s worked for three years running and there is no good reason to change.� To their credit, the FO varied their method where it counts; moving up to get Troy Polamalu, they acquired the #1 prospect at their #1 position of need; moving on Ivan Taylor in the 4^th, they went strong for potential over (big school) production and, presuming they�ve satisfied themselves as to Taylor�s learning ability, this pick could make all the difference in their class of� �03.

As I had imagined the Steelers� point of view, this draft unfolded exactly as forecast in one thread in my 2003 Draft, Strategy.� Had the Steelers held position rather than moving up, then they could have had Sammy Davis at 1.27, Antwan Peek at 2.59 and RB Chris Brown at 3.92.� That would have been a solid haul, allowing the PS to move Washington, Gildon and Bettis in 2004, if not (in the Bus�s case) before.� That said, I�m down with what they did.� Considering first the road not followed:

Sammy Davis:� No one praised this player more than I; however, while he may indeed become the #3 CB in this class that is rarely a high impact slot.� Again, the 3^rd CB in �98 was, say, Rolle or Starks, in �99 Antoine Winfield and in �00, Jason Webster.� I believe Davis will easily surpass Webster (but that�s not saying much); he�s got a shot at the Winfield/Starks/Rolle level but, while those players are very good CB, they can�t be described as dominators.� Beyond that, for Davis (or any CB) to move into the starting lineup in �03, either Washington or Scott would have had to move to FS.� IMO, that�s a sensible switch; however, if the FO�s pre-draft remarks were accepted, it was apparent that this wasn�t going to happen.� That so, safety was the position especially since, as it played out, every other safety prospect (without exception) that I had forecast as (possibly) available at 2.59 were off the board (Asomugha, Tillman, Mathis, Hamlin, Scott and Doss in draft order).� Had the Steelers gone CB first then they�d have been limited to Terrence Kiel, Julian Battle or (5^th round drop) Terrence Holt.� Not good.�

Antwan Peek:� A fabulous 3-4 OLB prospect but that�s exactly the problem.� In my D-Side Overview, I suggested that the 3-4 is ill suited to deal with multi-WR sets exactly because OLB are the first-responders as auxiliary cover guys.� That�s true for 4-3 teams, and for 3-4; the difference is that 4-3 teams rush with their D-linemen while (here at least) the D-design features OLB as the primary pass rushers.� There is a reciprocal relationship between coverage and pressure but with their OLB is space last season, too often we saw the Steelers accomplish neither.� Drafting Peek, the Steelers would have enfranchised that deficiency since, IMO, Peek lacks the frame length to function (really) effectively as a dime DE.� For what it�s worth, I think the Steelers expected Calvin Pace to be here (1.18 to Arizona) or maybe, in a move that would have enraged many, Osi Umenyiora (2.57 to the NYG).� Those players have the size to function as legit DE but few LB (other than Porter, Arrington and Colvin) can ship that load.��

Chris Brown:� As suggested here, this player did fall to 3.92; in fact, the Titans took him at 3.93.� Brown is a power runner who doesn�t have a role in the passing game; that is to say, Brown, in his strengths and limitations, is the ideal successor for the Bus.� That said, bringing Brown, any offense will, so to say, be telegraphing their punch.� Brown is a nice player but several RB remaining on the board (to include Onterrio Smith, Artose Pinner and Lee Suggs) may be better fits in the new NFL.� Of those, Pinner (4.99) can run inside and catch the ball; Smith (4.105) can too (and is an outside threat as well) but his character precluded his consideration here; Suggs (4.115) has no character issues but whether he can catch the ball is unknown, since V Tech rarely, if ever, threw it up last season.

Turning to what actually happened:

The Steelers moved up (11) spots to draft Troy Polamalu, the #1 safety prospect in this draft.� IMO, the FO made a solid deal here, giving just a 3^rd and a 6^th to get a player who is as likely as any to emerge from this class as the #1 impact guy on the D-side.� Consider that the Jets spent #22 overall and their 4^th round selection to move (9) spots from 1.13 to 1.04; although Baby Sapp is a player, that is price is extreme.� The Eagles got #3 DE Jerome McDougle just ahead Pittsburgh at 1.15; to move (15) spots (from 1.30), they were forced to surrender a 2^nd round pick, 2.62.� While it is true that when the Saints moved up, one suitor for Polamalu fell out, the Colts remained a factor.� Remember, they went TE in round 1 and SS in round 2 netting Dallas Clark and Mike Doss; beyond doubt, they would have preferred Polamalu at 1.24 with, say, Jason Witten (who lasted into the 3^rd) or LJ Smith (drafted at 2.62 by the Eagles) to follow.� To get their man, the Steelers needed to move and, maybe, they didn�t have to go to 1.16 but, maybe, no team other than KC would do a deal.

You all know about Troy, limiting this piece to include some remarks from Draft 2003, Strategy with a couple additions:��

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1.16 SS Troy Polamalu �is probably the best athlete among all D-backs.� Of the first round type secondary prospects, his rare combination of strength, speed and dedication best suggest a high degree of impact potential.� This selection would be within the starter-replacement mode here; Polamalu would be an upgrade for Flowers at SS and, IMO, it is highly likely that he would take Logan�s position in the packages too (It is not reasonable to expect Logan to recover from his knee procedure so to be ready early in the 2003 season, if at all).� If Logan can�t go, then Bell and Polamalu might take the package LB duties with Porter moving back to dime DE; in effect, this would improve the Steelers at up to (3) positions: dime DE, SS and (1) package backer.�

Maybe not, the Jackson pick suggests that Porter may stay in the middle of the field; hopefully, with Bell sideboard, with Polamalu taking Flower�s position and Logan (or Hope) in Alex�s spot.� Regardless, if you consider the D-side prospects taken first at their position�

DT Dewayne Robertson, 1.4
CB Terrence Newman, 1.5.
DE Terrell Suggs, 1.10.
SS Troy Polamalu, 1.16.
OLB Nick Barnett, 1.30.
FS Nnamdi Asomugha, 1.32.
ILB EJ Henderson, 2.40.

�even if you add Boss Bailey (2.34), you�ve got to like Polamalu as a contender for D-side ROY.� Finally, while his coverage skills have been questioned, consider that his (7) INT in Pac 10 play were (2) more than Dennis Weathersby accomplished and, while his height is at issue, at 5101, he is only �� shorter than sure-fire lockdown monster CB Terrence Newman.� Polamalu is just as fast as Newman, just as agile and jumps just as well; it could be that the Steelers may have come up with the freak safety that has eluded them since Carnell Lake moved to CB, and then blew town.� Regardless, job #1 on the D-side was to find an impact performer for the secondary and Polamalu projects better in that regard than any DB available after Newman, for sure, better than Woolfolk or the soon-to-be-near-great Sammy Davis.

2.59:� DE Alonzo Jackson fits the selection mode as a big school producer and will be expected to play the same kind of role on the D-side that ARE brought to the O-group in �02.� That is, he�s been brought in to function as a package rusher off the right side, factoring in 25-40% of the plays.� As was ARE, Jackson is a reach at the spot; I had him as a 3^rd round value but lacking that pick, the FO went towards the greatest immediate need remaining D-wise.� As mentioned, I believe they targeted Pace here but regardless, Jackson is a high try hustler, who has the frame, wingspan and leaping ability to develop as a disruptive force; on the downside, neither his long speed nor his agility are (quite) to standard for DE, let alone LB.� Consider these past Combine results:

Player	Height	Weight	Reps	40	Shuttle	Cone
KGB	6035	243	21	4.67	4.28	6.91
Carlos Hall	6035	259	20	4.67	4.19	6.97
Dennis Johnson	6045	258	17	4.82	4.36	7.21
Alonzo Jackson	6040	266	14	4.69 Pro Day 4.80 Combine	4.45	7.69
Brett Keisel	6050	279	26	4.77	4.36	7.28

KGB and Hall set the measure for discoverable DE gems; Dennis Johnson is included because the Cards probably expect Pace to replace this man in their DE rotation; Keisel is included as a measure of what the Steelers had on hand.� Off this comparison, you�ve got to wonder whether Alonzo is the guy; he is weaker and less agile than any player on this chart including Johnson, who was widely regarded as a disappointment at the �02 Combine.�� Worse, Jackson�s (14) reps are fewer than any DE prospect has thrown up in the four Combines from 2000-03.� Those measurables are not encouraging; on the plus side, Jackson did have (13) sacks and (19) pressures at FSU including (2) sacks and (3) pressures against Georgia, a team that had two OT drafted early (George Foster 1.20 and Jon Stinchcomb 2.35).

Jackson has to get stronger to start at any position but still could contribute now for (20) plays/game and on ST.� It is said that this man will be Jason Gildon�s successor, and I believe that is the FO�s intent; however, I do not believe Jackson will become a 3-4 LOLB.� The 3-4 is dying, if that scheme had any future here, then the Steelers would have drafted either Kenny Peterson or Antwan Peek at this spot.� Peterson is an ideal 3-4 DE and the obvious replacement for KVO; additionally, Peterson was (guru rating-wise) BPA at the spot and Peek, while smaller, is immensely more powerful than Jackson and, as such, would be a better fit at LB on the strong side.� That the Steelers passed on those two ideal 3-4 types suggests the demise of that system here; if Jackson can get stronger, he�ll be the RDE in a Steeler 4-3 by, say 2005.�� Alternatively, the PS staff will actually attempt to pound this prospect into the Gildon void and, from that year forward, the Jackson Chronicles will supplant the Gildon Report here.

I don�t love the Jackson pick, in and of itself; however, if that truly means the 3-4 is done (despite official pronouncements), well, here�s hoping Jackson develops as the next Mike Strahan (another 2^nd round rusher).� In the same �glass-half-full� mode, that the Steelers passed on Wayne Hunter suggests that they believe Mathias Nkwenti is well on the way.� Hunter is not polished but he has, by far IMO, the best upside of any LOT prospect in this (fairly thin) class.�� Nkwenti has taken about as many pro snaps as Hunter; like that prospect, Mathias was drafted for his future value and, maybe, the future is now.

4.125:� CB Ivan Taylor has all the physical traits you want in a CB; measurable-wise, he�s a lock for Canton.� The knock on Taylor (and the reason he was dropped off my VB) had to do with learning capacity.� That�s a cold shot and, quite obviously, the Steeler FO has first hand info forever lacking here.� If they�re good with Taylor�s capacity to grasp the system, well, this is, by far, the best pick they could have made at the spot.�� Here�s a workout comparison between Taylor and another raw (though much more costly) prospect, Andre Woolfolk.�

Player	Height	Weight	40	Reps	Vertical	Long jump	Shuttle
Andre Woolfolk	6013	197	4.48	10	38 ��	10-8	3.95
Ivan Taylor	6013	191	4.32-4.37	16	38 ��	10-10	4.40

Advantage Taylor, in every area except the shuttle; while both players have the tools to move in at CB in 2004, one was available 98 spots down the line.� Although it is true that few Day 2 CB develop as starters, some do and, other than Weathersby (4.98), Taylor is as good a bet as any, and better than most.� Taylor was the 14^th CB taken (24^th DB); to the Steelers� credit, they selected this player ahead of such better known big school players as Michael Lehan (5.152), Shane Walton (6.170) and even Kevin Garrett (6.172).� In the short term, he�ll bump Poteat and, for sure, that�s an imperative here; he has the potential to do much more.

5.163:� Brian St. Pierre was the 7^th QB on most boards but the 8^th taken; (thank God) Seneca Wallace was taken ahead of him.� St. Pierre was a 5^th round value on my VB and, indeed, was the pick here in both Mock 1 and Mock 2.� Despite all prejudice to the contrary, analysis reveals that quality QB can be found anywhere in the draft and IMO, this player is more likely to develop than, say, Chris Simms.� On the other hand, D-side depth such as a legit stuffer at NT or, say, OLB Tully Banta-Cain would have been reasonable selections here.� (Note on Banta-Cain: Though all the so-called �reach� DB I had projected as potential value at 2.59 were, in fact, drafted even earlier; while DE Osi Umenyiora went in that area too and SS Jeremy Shabazz was indeed available in the 7^th, just after the Steelers acquired Walls (below), it must be acknowledged that OLB Tully Banta-Cain (7.237) was far more highly slotted on my VB than in any War Room league-wide).

7.242: J.T. Walls blocked for Musa Smith last season; Walls is a high try guy with limited athleticism, exactly like Dan Kreider.� Surprisingly, DT Terrence Martin, Matt Leonard and Colin Cole were on the board at this point.� It is said that Martin had a chronic positive at the Combine, Leonard has some back problems; those two may be eliminated on medical (or �medical�) grounds but Cole�s exclusion is inexplicable, here anyway.�

Summary:

In D-backs, version 1.0, prospects were presented in four tables, classified on speed; those were: sub-4.4, sub-4.5, sub-4.6 and too damn slow.� Both Polamalu and Taylor fit the first; those guys have state of the art speed and, as we�ve seen, speed is of the essence.� Polamalu will provide some big time hitting out of the safety spot and has coverage tools on a Newman-level.� As for Taylor, well, the Steelers haven�t had a developmental CB with size since Deon Figures, in �93 and haven�t had a CB with this kind of speed since the great Rod Woodson.� DB Grade: A

IMO, St. Pierre presents solid value at the spot while the selection of a FB in round 7 suggests that the FO is considering moving Haynes to RB, with the Bus moving on (if that is not so, then this pick makes little sense especially since there were a quantity of NT prospects available).� The Jackson pick is troubling on the face but may suggest some scheme revision congruent with realities in the league today.� Others: C-

Needs addressed:

Strong safety
Dime DE (?)
Developmental CB
Developmental QB.

FA Priority

Back-up NT.
Athleticism in OLB reserves.

Maybe next year:

Franchise RB.

Grade: B-, (with �A� potential, should Jackson truly augur a scheme change).

Elsewhere in the division:

Cincinnati got (4) players who were projected as possible 1^st round selections to include: Carson Palmer, Eric Steinbach, Kelly Washington and Dennis Weathersby.� In addition, they drafted Khalid Abdullah (an outstanding athlete at OLB) and Langston Moore (described by some as the #1 NT prospect in this draft).� At the dawn of the Marvin Lewis Era, the Bengals get a Grade: A.

Baltimore:� Terrell Suggs, Kyle Boller, Musa Smith early with solid supporters like Jarrett Johnson, Ovie Mughelli and Tony Pashos later.� However, they didn�t get a WR and that is a unit needing upgrade.� Grade: A-.

Cleveland:� I like Jeff Faine but 1.21 is high for any OC, Chaun Thompson is a great athlete but, whether or not he�s a player remains to be seen; on balance, the Browns may have been better off with Nick Barnett or Boss Bailey in the 1^st and Al Johnson or Ben Nelson in the second.� However, after watching Casey Hampton serially abuse Dave Wohlbaugh last season, Coach Davis may have felt OC was the position of greatest need.� Lee Suggs was a tremendous value in the 4^th and Antonio Garay may be even better in the 6^th but the wisdom of selecting S Chris Crocker in the 3^rd and CB Mike Lehan in the 5^th eluded me.� Grade: C.

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