O-side Overview, 2002 in review:

 

In our D-side Overview, we skipped over the need for a paradigm shift there; that is, a switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3.� It is not my purpose to open that discussion here; however, if Coach Cowher can be criticized for his stubborn insistence on a scheme ill-suited to deal with the attack mode now prevalent in the League, in fairness, he deserves praise for altering his team�s O-side identity.�

 

As surely as their D-side has been LB-dominant, so has the Steeler offense long been run-first, pass-as-a-last-resort.� In 2001, Coach Cowher reached what surely must have been his own private football nirvana.� That was, of course, possession of the league�s #1 rush attack yoked to the league�s #1 defense.� Though not expected to contend seriously that season, in fact, the 2001 Steelers rolled through the regular rounds until tumbling on the deficiencies of their execrable special teams.� Against New England in that year�s finale, Coach Cowher saw his ST group dig a hole out of which his offense could not grind; possibly then, Mr. Cowher saw the need to develop a quick strike capacity on the O-side; likely, that epiphany compelled the then over-looked deal offered T-Max last winter.

 

That deal provided what little hope existed here in 2002.� Okay, the Steelers didn�t get as far with Maddox as with Stewart the year before but, hell, they didn�t have the #1 defense last year and, for most of the campaign, they didn�t have an established run game either.� Tie their 2002 pass game to that 2001 defense and rush attack and, well, in my opinion, you�re looking at that long-elusive thumb ornament.

 

The problem on the D-side was, generally, centered on the dime.� If the Steelers acquire a couple of D-backs, presumably safeties, and develop some dime DE then they may return to form.� On the O-side, re-establishing a power running game is job #1.� The 2002 Steelers were (2) reliable power backs from their glory in 2001; that year, the Bus got off strong and, when he went down, Fu was ready, in tandem with Zereoue, to push the rock.� That wasn�t the case in 2002; Bettis never really got well and Fu reverted to his pre-2001, injury-prone form.� Their deficiency in that area is best exemplified by the continuous failure to grind clock in the late going.� If you don�t think that is important then consider the wildcard round here when Cleveland was absolutely unable to get anything done in the 4^th quarter with William Green and, thereby, blew their trip to Tennessee.

 

That said, the Steelers� strength on the O-side resides with their WR and with Tommy Maddox.� That figures to continue, so long as Maddox stays healthy.� Integral to that, is some resolution to the LOT issue looming; Gandy is all but gone and, while that is regrettable, time marches on and, as I�ll argue later, that man doesn�t figure in even in the mid-range.� However, as we saw on the D-side, if you�re not getting better, you�re getting worse and, as the Steelers don�t figure to get better at LOT next year, they�ll have to offset that deficiency elsewhere if they are to improve on the pass game that they initiated in 2002.� In addition, with Stewart sure to depart, the Steelers will need a quality, experienced back-up QB capable of feeding those WR, should T-Max go down.

 

So much for the big picture: generally, this article will follow that format established on the D-side Overview.� That is: a unit-by- unit analysis featuring a tabular array, a discussion section, and an outline of needs and sources to meet those.� But prior to that, I�d like to outline three issues; each originates on the O-side but has broader ramifications.� So:

 

Cap hits now, FA now:�

 

In regular season games over the past two years, the Steelers went 8-1 when Mark Breuner was inactive and 7-1-1 when Jerome Bettis was inactive.� Many of those were the same games (in fact, the loss cited above was Cincy 2 in 2001 when Kitna passed the Steelers silly) but, leaving that, it is apparent that the Steelers have been capable of winning, with or without Breuner and the Bus.� Given those players� advancing years and injury histories, that trend figures to become even more pronounced.

 

Both Breuner and the Bus are replaceable, expensive and injury-prone; it is obvious that their days are numbered here.� However, cutting both players now would free just 0.5M from the 2003 cap; that is their combined 6.04M fully accelerated bonus charge (dead money in 2003) to be balanced against their combined 6.54 2003 hit. �Obviously, 0.5M is not enough to attract any quality FA; hell, it might not cover the cost of filling those roster spots they now occupy, even with bottom-feeding rookies.�

 

On the other hand, making the cut now would clear the books for 2004.� The Steelers are currently obligated to Breuner and the Bus at a combined 7.75M in that season.� Cut now, their charge in 2004 would be zero; cut after June of this year, 3.2M would remain on the 2004 books.� By releasing the B-brothers pre-June 2003, the Steelers would gain an additional 4.55M relief on their 2004 cap.��

 

A year from now, in the period preparing for the 2004 season, the Steelers will face rising OT costs (see section following), may face D-side dead money (DW, KVO, Gildon are candidates) and may wish to extend both Spike Burress and Kendrell Bell before their UFA year, which is 2004.� Certainly some portion salvaged from the Breuner/Bus deals ought be reserved to meet those needs.� However, from the figures above, we might expect the Steeler FO to use a portion of their 4.55M �windfall� immediately to re-negotiate deals with some set of players who do project to be on the roster for both seasons.��

 

The purpose of the re-negotiation suggested above would be to reduce the current squeeze on the 2003 cap thus clearing space towards attracting some quality import FA now, presumably a D-back, possibly a reliable power RB to yoke with Zereoue.� However, given their 2004 issues (especially Bell and Burress), we�d expect any 2003 FA share to be a minority interest only.� Regardless, if the Bus/Breuner cuts are delayed until June, it will be too little, too late.� The Steelers have immediate need for the 2003 cap relief that might be afforded by adjustments to their 2004 figure; June is the cap casualty season, it is not the premium FA season.� By delaying the inevitable, the Steelers would both remove themselves from the 2003 FA market and impair their ability to deal in a timely fashion with their maximum impact players, Burress and Bell.

 

The Kordell Stewart Trade:

 

A variety of misinformation has been propounded on this point; various mainstream media sources are implicated in this.� Some of the inanities promulgated include:

 

• �Kordell�s contract makes him un-tradable�:� That�s laughable; Kordell has one year left on his deal.� Last spring, Buffalo acquired Drew Bledsoe from the Pats; just two years previous, Bledsoe had signed a 10-year deal worth more than 100M with New England.� Of course, that contract had to be re-negotiated; no way was Buffalo going to eat that chunk but, quite obviously, the Bledsoe deal utterly dwarfed that carried by Kordell Stewart.� Bledsoe had (8) years remaining, Stewart has (1).� If any team sees Stewart as a mid-range solution then his 2003 cap hit (6.9M) could easily be subsumed as a bonus payment spread out over the term of some new deal.� Of course, this presumes that Stewart is interested in remaining with that team; this suggests that squad have some reasonable near-term championship prospect.

 

• � No team would trade for a guy that they could pick up on the waiver wire:� That�s true but, since the waiver wire reflects any team�s final standing, only Cincinnati could be assured of acquiring Stewart in this way.� By finishing last, the Bengal organization earned first dibs on any waived player.� After that, said dibs descend in a fashion identical to the draft order next spring.� Let�s take a look:

 

Cincinnati is #1, possibly they�ll stick with Kitna; regardless, the Steelers would have to find some other trading partner before opening negotiations with the Bengals.�

 

Detroit and Houston have their QB.

 

Chicago is #4; they need a QB and, given the age of their defense, probably don�t want to wait on some rookie to develop.

 

Dallas is #5; Parcells won�t wait on a rookie either but Stewart might not be his kind of QB.� Then again, KS has played turnover-free ball over a period and that is exactly what the Tuna orders.

 

Arizona is #6; if they dump the Snake, they�ll be in the market.

 

Minnesota has their QB; so, probably, does Jacksonville though the Jags are worth a call.

 

Carolina is #9; they are ideal in that their defense makes them a playoff contender.

 

Seattle has their QB.

 

Baltimore is #11 and they too are a good bet to be in the market.� However, it is by no means clear the O-side genius running things there would see Stewart as his guy.

 

Beyond 11, the list dries up; that�s not surprising as QB play has a direct effect on any teams� fortunes.� Those at the top generally don�t have it; those at the bottom generally do.� It takes two to trade but, given the waiver issue, it will take at least three to make the Stewart deal; that is, the PS and two or more competing parties.� Whether or not such partners exist is not clear; however, you�d think that a player who finished 3^rd in the league-wide MVP ballot not long ago would attract some interest.� Finally though, Stewart will have his say; it is possible to imagine that he would be willing to go long-term with the Panthers, Boys or Bears; that is not true, say, of the Bengals.

 

The quandary with any Stewart deal is this: they need cap relief now but the longer they keep Stew, the higher their likely return in trade.� The latter opinion stems from the observation that both Bledsoe and Trent Greene were dealt at the 11^th hour, at or on draft day �02 and �01 respectively; presumably, Stewart�s value will, similarly, rise at the �03 date.� The problem is that, until Stew moves on, any �03 clearance to accrue can�t be engaged in some new FA.� Deal him early and effectively deal down in the draft; deal him late and the FA will be long-gone.� That so, it is all the more urgent that the FO move on Bettis/Breuner immediately: do the cut, do the re-negotiations outlined previously and use whatever �03 gains early, rather than late in FA.� Doing so would reduce the urgency to move Stewart and so maximize gain from that inevitable trade.���

 

Leadership:

 

The character displayed by Bettis, Breuner and Stewart (not to say, Wayne Gandy) must be acknowledged.� In general, those men have been productive, hard-nosed and dependable.� Character and commitment are considerable virtues anywhere; in League Parity, those may provide the winning margin.� Presuming all those men are discharged here (and, in my opinion, that is necessary), then there could be something of a leadership vacuum on the O-side, circa 2003.� I think not though; for two years, we�ve seen what Hines Ward brings to bear; last year, we saw T-Max take control in the wildcard playoff round.� It seems apparent that those players are capable heirs to that legacy of leadership left by the core soon to move on.�

 

So much for introductory remarks; turning to the units:

 

Interior O-linemen:

 

The players are listed by term of service.� The salary and cap figures posted here were published in the PG on 24 October 2002.� Naturally, the remarks are my own.

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
A. Faneca	2007	3.80	Cornerstone player	Cornerstone player	Two-time Pro Bowler and still young.� Arguably the best LOG in the NFL.� Makes the players on each side better too.�
J. Hartings	2006	4.23	Has about 5.7M in bonus money still riding @ 1.228 yearly plus 0.85M in various (unvested) roster and workout bonuses.	(0.64)	Detroit 1st round pick in �96; signed here as an FA in 2001 and (indirectly) filled the hole left by the failure of Jamain Stephens, also a �96 1st round pick.� Stabilized the center position in 2001 but missed time last year due to recurring knee problems.� At his age, this is a concern but presumably Hartings will hold up for another few years.��
C. Okobi	2004, includes RFA year	0.43	Won�t happen, shouldn�t happen.	Trivial.	Intelligent and competitive, played fairly well in Hartings� absence.� In my opinion, is strictly a center as, while his short stature may be an asset at that position, this limits his ability to function in space as is required at guard.
K. Vincent	EFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Powerful player who gives the Steelers a solid backup at either guard position.� Anchors well in pass protection but is somewhat laterally challenged.� Projects as a solid drive blocker but seems to be a bit top-heavy when on the move.
K. Simmons	2007	1.04	Cornerstone player	Cornerstone player	Like Okobi, intelligent and competitive.� Seems to be a have good sense of what he needs to accomplish.� Can get to the second level in the run game however, needs to improve his strength as, in pass protection, he got rolled far too often in 2002 by power DT.

 

Discussion:

 

Like no team in football, Pittsburgh has built their O-line from the inside out.� It is a rare thing when a center or guard is drafted in the 1^st round; for example, last year, Kendrell Simmons was the only player at either position taken in the opening frame.� The year before, two, Leonard Davis and Steve Hutchinson, went early; the same was true in 2000, with Chris McIntosh and Stockar McDougale.� Few teams field more than one 1^st round pick in the inner three; in contrast, the Steelers not only picked OG first in both �98 and �02 but brought in Jeff Hartings, a �96 1^st round selection, to play the center position.

 

It could be said that the Steelers are ahead of the curve in this regard.� After all, DT have been heavily represented in the 1^st round recently; those men line-up closest to the QB and, no doubt, an interior rush is the best means to disarm the short drop, quick pass attack mode which now dominates the league.�� Possibly, the Steelers anticipated this and willingly paid a premium to neutralize the strength of their opponents; certainly, their interior trio played effectively in 2002 against, say, the Jags 1^st round DT tandem and, certainly, they played effectively against Warren Sapp and Co.�

 

More likely though, this was the residue of prior success rather than any overarching conceptual frame.� Generally, the premium prospects at OG, along with TE, MLB and safety, are available at the bottom of the first round and, if not always, often, that is where the Steelers have been selecting.� That describes the case in both �98 and �02 anyway; that so, Pittsburgh�s strength in the interior probably derives less from any prescience or precognition than from a solid BPA (best player available) draft philosophy.� Regardless, this unit is as strong as any on the team and, arguably, as good as any similar trio league-wide.

 

Needs:

 

None in the near term; Keydrick Vincent is the only player up for renewal and, with just two years in the league, he is an EFA; as such, Pittsburgh is the only team who may now negotiate with this man.� In my opinion, the Steelers should, absolutely, secure Vincent for the mid-term even though it is true that they already have a number of interior players signed thru �06-�07 and that is not so elsewhere, especially at OT.� Under those circumstances, it may seem counter-intuitive to sign yet another guard but the fact is that Vincent will come comparatively cheap.� Beyond that, the man can play (well, I think so anyway); the Steelers haven�t missed a beat in his two career starts; the Steelers got their attack untracked in the Cleveland playoff after Keydrick came in at ROG.� I don�t imagine that Vincent will become a Pro Bowl player but I do think he can be a quality starter or, if not that, then definitely a solid backup at either guard position.

����������

From the OT table following, it is apparent that the Steelers will be facing a crunch at that position at about the same time that they�ll be looking to extend Burress and Bell.� Then, they�ll have to look for cuts somewhere and, in my opinion, the interior O-line is one likely spot.�

 

Jeff Hartings is a solid player but the fact that his cap hit exceeds that of Alan Faneca each year thru 2006 suggests that this man will inevitably become a cap casualty.� Those two players will combine for a 9.73M cap cost in 2004 and for 10.38M in 2005.� That figures to be an absurdly high percentage of either cap; somewhere in that period, one player will almost certainly be let go and, as Hartings is about (5) years older than Big Al, he figures to be the sacrifice.� Conceivably then, Okobi could move in between Faneca and Simmons but in my opinion, it is about as likely that Simmons will move in to center (then becoming the true successor to Dermonti Dawson) with Faneca and Vincent sideboard.��

 

The bottom line is this: soon, the Steelers will have too high a percentage of their cap allocated for this unit.� No other team in football has two interior O-linemen at the top of their pay scale and, while Pittsburgh has gotten good play inside, the fact remains that there are plenty of highly functional interior O-linemen who began as mid-round or FA rookies, and are paid accordingly.� Shortly, the Steelers will have to find the cash to secure playmakers at positions of greater impact and, in the zero sum world of cap management, that addition will require some preceding subtraction.� Keydrick Vincent, as is true for all players of similar pedigree, is easily overlooked but, in fact, that man�s development is crucial towards the Steelers� improvement at positions more apparent.

 

Offensive Tackle:

 

The players are listed by term of service.� The salary and cap figures posted here were published in the PG on 24 October 2002.� Naturally, the remarks are my own.

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
Wayne Gandy	UFA	None	Doesn�t apply	Doesn�t apply	Signed as an FA pre-99, at that time was generally regarded as a stopgap but emerged in the New Millennium as both a valuable leader and a solid performer on the field.
Marvel Smith	2003	0.92	0.30, pending legal difficulties this won�t happen.	0.62	Started as a rookie in �00 and has started ever since.� Has talent and size but is prone to lapses both on and off the field.� Is steadily, if slowly, improving and while he may never dominate has developed into a contributing player
Oliver Ross	2004	1.62	0.73	0.89	Versatility is his greatest asset. Can play both tackle positions and guard though he struggles somewhat at the latter spot.� Has been a useful backup over the past two seasons and, in the best case, that would be his role through the term of his contract.
M. Nkwenti	2004, including thru RFA year	0.49	0.09	0.40	Best athlete on the O-line but whether or not he is a player remains to be seen.
Josh Burr	2003 (?)	1-year minimum	Doesn�t apply	Doesn�t apply	Arrived as a rookie FA last spring and won a spot on the practice squad.� Signed to the active roster recently and figures to get a go in Latrobe next summer.� Burr is huge even by NFL standards but is very raw having played small college ball in North Dakota.� At 27, is overage as a developmental prospect.�

 

Discussion:

 

Wayne Gandy has been a quality LOT and next year, more than ever, that spot figures to be of primary importance to the Steelers.� Of course, that is because T-Max will be the starting QB next year and, while that man has absolutely earned the position, there has to be some concern with regard to his mobility or pocket presence, not to say his ability to absorb repeated blows whether from the blindside or any other.� Gandy has demonstrated his ability to protect while his dual heir apparent, Ross or Nkwenti, have not.� That so, we might expect the Steelers to exert themselves in re-signing this man but, probably, they will not do so.

 

This situation recalls that following the �97 season when Jon Jackson was up for renewal.� Jackson was a 10-year vet, more or less the same as Gandy and, like that man is now, Jackson was then entering the dreaded Contract 3.� Any effort the Steelers may have made then to sign their man was trumped by the Bolts who lavished a high-digit, long�term deal on JJ.� As we all know, the Steelers struggled in the following season; their plan was to move Justin Strylzcek to LOT and let Jamain Stephens and Paul Wiggins battle for the start at ROT but that failed miserably.� Wiggins fell out of the competition due to a substance abuse problem and, after Stephens struggled early, Strylzcek moved back to ROT with Will Wolford sliding out from LOG to LOT (a move that ultimately cost the Steelers their �00 pick in the 3^rd round).� Strylzcek lasted a game or two on the right-side before blowing out a knee; this left the Steelers with no recourse but Wolford, playing with one good arm, to remain at LOT with the infamously underachieving Stephens on the right.� Of course, Chris Conrad figured in this somewhere but the less of said of that man the better.

 

In �98, Jackson was clearly the best LOT of that group; it is highly likely that, in 2003, Gandy will be the best LOT of the four tabulated above.� That said, the direction is usually downward in Contract 3 and, if the Jackson analogy holds for Gandy, that downward slope will be steep, swift and sure.� Jackson started for just two seasons in San Diego; while he played effectively in �98, he struggled in �99 and was cut the following winter.� After that, he picked up a check as a Bengal backup (reunited with the lamentable LaLame).� In sum, while Jackson gave the Bolts his best, this amounted to one solid season and a heap of dead money.� Sure, the Steelers would have been better with Jackson in �98 but, really, not in any season following.�

 

Of course, there are individual differences; the history cited above does not preclude Wayne Gandy from playing effectively for another three or four years.� The odds are against that though; while the Steeler FO has more certain knowledge, we�ve got to conclude that, off the chalk, Wayne is about done.� That so, the issue revolves around where you believe the Steelers are at present in their quest for that thumb ring.� If you think they�ve got a year before the window slams shut again then you�d sign Gandy, cap be damned.� If you think they�ve got brighter long-term prospects, or if you think the window went down last season and they�re in re-load mode now, then you�ve got to set the big man free, presumably, to return home and end his days as a Miami Dolphin.

 

If Gandy stays on, there�s not much left to discuss here; if not:

 

Many believe that Marvel Smith will move over to LOT.� That is the position he played in college and when he came out in �00, he was considered a prospect on that side, not the so-called power side.� Of course, things have changed since �00 as, in the pass-first, spread offense endemic today every tackle has to play on an island; in that respect, the hoary difference between left and right is much diminished.� Smith may move over to take T-Max�s blind side; certainly, he has better footwork than does Oliver Ross but even if Smith moves, the need for two quality pass protectors remains.� That so, whether or not Smith flips is largely irrelevant.� It is worth noting that 2003 is Marvel�s last under contract here; if he is to be the guy on either side then the Steelers would do well to extend him sooner rather than not.

 

In 2001, Oliver Ross took an emergency start at LOT against the Ravens.� His opponent was RDE Michael McCrary and this was widely regarded as a mismatch.� However, Oliver held his own and, in so doing, made himself a nice pile of cash.� Probably, that game gave Cleveland the incentive that spurred their offer last winter; one that the Steelers quickly matched.� As a consequence, Ross will be paid something approaching starting money next year though, clearly, nothing approaching Gandy�s take-home over the past few seasons.� In my opinion, that deal signaled Gandy�s demise here and while, excluding the Raven game cited above, I�ve never been overly impressed with Ross it is quite obvious that the Steelers� feel otherwise.� Off their rapid improvement in 2001 on the O-line, we can be assured that Russ Grimm knows about all there is to know about that unit�s play; if Coach Grimm believes Ross is ready, well, that�ll do.

 

Still, in the best case, Ross would remain as a top backup at both tackle positions and a stopgap at guard while Mathias Nkwenti moves in on the left side.� Nkwenti is, beyond doubt, the best athlete on the O-line but it is as yet unclear that he can play football.� As you might remember, Nkwenti played on the O-side for just one season at Temple; previously, he had been a rotation player at DT.� He did have whatever advantage a soccer background provides; generally, that is in the area of footwork and coordination.� At OT, Nkwenti improved as Temple�s season droned onward and impressed sufficiently in post-season to become a prospect, moving upward steadily until, by draft day, he had arisen from an FA-type to a legit late-3^rd round selection.�

 

The Steelers got him early in the 4^th, selecting him over a number of better known, big frame type prospects such as Brandon Winey.� So far, none of those players have done much but then neither has Nkwenti, a man who has been inactive for nearly every game of his brief career.� Still, I liked the selection then; Nkwenti is a player whose athleticism gives him a big upside; he has excellent strength and presuming that his footwork can offset his non-classic 6�-3� frame, the Steelers will have acquired a valuable player in the mid-rounds, that is, a classic sleeper.

 

That�s a lot of ifs; Oliver Ross is insurance against Nkwenti�s failure to develop but it is Nkwenti, not Ross, whom the Steelers must hope moves in at LOT.� In that light, any effort to re-sign Gandy would simply heap insurance on insurance; if the Steelers believe Ross can function as a starter, then whether Nkwenti develops or not, Gandy would become an aging, expensive backup.� The Steelers drafted Nkwenti to start; they extended Ross as a bridge to that day; in my opinion, they should stay the course.�

 

Needs:

 

• Predicated on the developments cited above, none immediately except as a developmental player superior to Josh Burr may present.�

 

• Smith�s contract expires after 2003 and, if Nkwenti does start, his RFA offer, due simultaneously with any Smith extension, will rise; next winter, the Steelers may have to deal with extending both starting OT.� If Nkwenti isn�t a prospect, then the FO will have to consider whether Ross fits in beyond 2004.� I doubt it; if Nkwenti isn�t the guy, then the Steelers will be looking at a premium pick at OT in the 2004 draft or a FA following that season.

 

Sources:

 

• Impact LOT are not found at the bottom of the first round; this year, there will be no prospect who is more likely to contribute immediately than the men who figure to contend as starters here in 2003.�

 

• Gandy is the best of the FA likely to be available.� Orlando Pace and Walter Jones figure to be franchised; Luke Pettigout of the NYG is younger than Gandy but is not exceptionally physical.� Beyond that, this man is highly susceptible to pre-snap errors. �Ideally, the Steelers would retain Wayne at some Ross-like sum but, factually, the Fins are likely to trump that kind of deal.

 

Tight End:

 

The players are listed by term of service.� The salary and cap figures posted here were published in the PG on 24 October 2002.� Naturally, the remarks are my own.

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
M. Bruener	2006	2.65	2.4	0.25	Good blocker, great teammate but is no factor in the passing game.� Over the past two seasons, missed 9/32 regular season starts; the Steelers were 8-1 in those games.
J. Tuman	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Drafted as a pass catcher but has gotten bigger and stronger.� Is now the Steelers biggest TE but is more a seal-off than drive blocker.� Flashes good hands on high balls but is awkward adjusting to any ball thrown low.� For what it�s worth, the Steelers have been 8-1 in the regular season with this man starting.
J. Allred	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Former second round pick (Chicago) who sat out a season or two before returning in 2002.� Flashed in pre-season both in the passing game and on ST but did little in the regular season before going down with a late, terminating injury.� Seems to be fragile and, as such, is not dependable.
M. Cushing	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Has commuted between his home and the Steeler roster for several seasons.� High try guy who knows the system but is very limited athletically.� On the plus side, will show up and give an effort.
M. Battaglia	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Another former second round pick (Cincinnati); MB sat out most of the 2002 season before joining the Steelers late after Allred went down.�

 

Discussion:

 

In Pittsburgh, the tight end has functioned as a glorified offensive tackle.� Certainly, the state-of-the-art is elsewhere, with Todd Heap in Baltimore or Jeremy Shockey in New York.� That said, it is not obvious that the Steelers need to move in that direction; after all, they do have Plaxico Burress at WR and, at 6�-5�, Spike provides exactly the kind of mismatch opportunities here that are furnished by those few TE elsewhere.� A receiving TE would be nice; possibly, a receiving TE would be devastating to opponents next year but, need-wise, the draft priority remains on the D-side.� That so, it is likely that any impact TE would be drafted on a BPA, target-of-opportunity basis rather than as part of some grand design.� However, the opportunity may exist as, historically, the prime TE prospects have been available at the bottom of the first round; that is true of safety too (which is a more pressing present need) but if the top safeties are off while the top TE remain on the board @ #27, then this may be the way to go.

 

That Mark Breuner no longer figures here was made clear in Bill Cowher�s last press conference when he listed Tuman as one of three starters who are UFA.� Breuner had micro-fracture surgery on his knee and, while Kevin Hardy came back to play last year after having had the same procedure off-season, the track record for this treatment remains dicey.� Andre Wadsworth still is not back and, in general, the return rate has been sub-50%.� Beyond that, Breuner has had (4) season ending injuries in his eight-year career; from that, and from the Steelers record over the last couple years with Breuner out of the lineup, you�ve got to conclude that this man no longer factors even, as some have suggested, bulked up to function as a RT in, say, 2004.�

 

From the table above, we see that the Steelers would clear 0.25M if Breuner were cut outright pre-June.� Possibly, the CBA won�t allow this; possibly, the Steelers will have to negotiate an injury termination.� If so, this should be done and done cleanly; in my opinion, the Steelers should take the full hit this year rather than deferring a portion into 2004 when they�ll have players to extend and, probably, D-side dead money to consume.���� ��

 

Jerame Tuman is no difference maker but he has developed as a functional complementary player.� Given that they have no TE other than Breuner signed next year, Tuman is something of a priority.� I doubt that there will be much competition for this man; he knows the system here and, that so, figures to be more valuable to the Steelers than to any other team.� This suggests that the Steelers may overpay to retain his services; however, I�d expect the bidding to be so light that any overage would be insignificant.

 

Matt Cushing has been a functional 3^rd TE who, off his history, figures to be ever available to the B&G but never of interest to any other team.� Neither Battaglia nor Allred should be retained.

 

Needs:

 

Excluding some resolution to the LOT quandary, TE is, arguably, the Steelers greatest need on the O-side.� A prime-time pass catcher here could, with Spike, Hines and ARE form a devastating receiving quartet.� A solid blocker here could give some help to the OT, especially as that unit develops over the early going.�

 

• (1) quality starter; Tuman projects better as a 2^nd TE than as a #1.�

 

Sources:

 

• In the first round or two, as in FA, the need here balances against the need at safety.

 

• If no TE superior to Tuman presents early in the draft, the Steelers need feel no compunction towards drafting some developmental prospect later.� The need for athleticism in the D-side reserves outweighs the need for a scrub TE.�

 

Running back/Fullback:

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
J. Bettis	2006	3.89	3.64 vested pro-ration, with an additional 0.36 in non-vested workout bonuses.	0.25 if cut before his �03 workout bonus is due; deduct 90K thereafter.	Inactive for (9) of (32) games in the past two regular seasons, the Steelers are 7-1-1 in those tilts.� On the plus side, when Bettis had (18) or more carries last year, the Steelers were 5-1; add their 9-2 mark opening 2001 when Bettis started and that�s 14-3 in those games where the Bus has had impact.� That is more or less identical to the Bettis-free mark cited above.
Fu	2003	0.92	0.19	0.79	Big, fast, good receiver and has been effective in various roles including ST, as a 3rd down back and as a fill-in starter in 2001.� Can�t stay healthy and so doesn�t project as either a feature back or a reliable RB-by-committee type.
A. Zereoue	2005	2.0	Figures as #1 RB next year	Not going to happen	Excellent in an Arena-ball like set where he can use his quickness in an open game.� Didn�t impress out of a conventional set; with AZ as a feature back the Steelers had difficulty getting first downs late when attempting to salt games away
D. Kreider	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Devastating lead blocker.� Had (18) receptions, more than the entire TE corps.� Absolutely must be extended.
V. Haynes	2005, includes RFA year	0.33	0.03	0.30	Too small to play FB and too slow to play RB, has shaky hands and didn�t pick up the blitz when used as a 3rd down back last year.� Adequate but far from dominating on ST.� Showed little if any upside.�

 

Discussion:

 

In 2001, the Steeler running game was a juggernaut; a season later, that phase dropped to a very soft 9^th overall.� It could be said that this was due to the emergence of a potent aerial attack here but, in fact, only two teams (Miami and Buffalo) had more rushing attempts last season than did the Steelers.� The B&G attempted to establish the run but, too often, they did not.� Repeatedly in the regular season just past, the Steelers had a lead late but were unable to grind time off the clock; the Atlanta game sticks out as a primary example.� In the endgame at Tennessee (of more recent memory), the Steelers had the ball at mid-field with two minutes to go.� Needing just a FG to put the game away, they got a 10-yard penalty that placed the ball at the T-40.� With any kind of run game, you�d expect they could mix pass and rush to advance, say, 15 yards giving Reed, say, a 42-yard try with no time on the clock.� However, with no run game to speak of, they were forced to the air and, failing three times there, this game was decided on the flip of a coin.

 

Amos Zereoue figures to be the #1 RB next season.� Amos is certainly smaller than the classic franchise back but he is not considerably more diminutive than a number of effective RB: Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes and Charlie Garner to name a few.� On the plus side, Amos did have (3) 100-yard games in (5) regular season starts; on the downside, Amos was the guy in a number of those games where the Steelers failed to grind the rock to salt the game away.� Additionally, this man�s tendency towards the negative play subverts any rational sequence of play calling.� In sum, Amos does not project as a franchise type; he may yet develop as such but a conservative approach would require that he prove his case within a RB-by-committee paradigm.

 

If Amos lacks the poundage to pound, then that putative committee needs a power back.� Last season, the Steelers had two such on the roster, Bettis and Fu, but neither proved reliable. Since signing a 6-year deal in 2001, Jerome Bettis has appeared in just 23 of 32 regular season games.� He was a factor in, at most 16 of those; this includes 10/11 in 2001 and those (6) tilts this season when he had (18) or more carries.� Extending the Bus, the Steeler FO gambled that he would have (3) effective seasons remaining, with (4) the absolute outside.� Well, win some lose some; Bettis has had only a 50% effective participation rate over the first two years of that deal.� That rate is not likely to improve; this recalls the last days of Dermonti Dawson and, sadly, as Dirt blew away so has the Bus rusted through.���

 

If Fu could stay healthy, dropping Bettis now would be a no-brainer.� However, we all know that Fu can�t stay healthy; in fact, under light duty, this man has missed 28 of the 80 regular season games scheduled over his 5-year career.� Put it this way, Bettis has missed an average of 4.5 games per season over the past two; Fu has missed an average of 5.6 games per season over the past five.�

 

Not good: if reliability were the issue then this would be pick �em.� However, that is not the only factor; rather, we do have to consider the Steelers� long-term horizon.� If neither player can be relied upon, then neither is the answer next year; that so, the short term evaporates.� Likely, Fu has no mid-range prospects; on the plus side, he is young (months younger than Amos) and, when healthy, fairly effective.� On the downside, only twice in five years has he reached double figures in games available.� Cutting Fu and keeping the Bus, the Steelers would clear 0.79M rather than 0.25M for 2003.� That�s not a huge difference especially when compared to the cap savings in years following.

 

Fu is under contract through 2003; it may be defensible to consider keeping him for another year (on the grounds that, at 25, he still has some potential) even while conceding that he�ll probably return to his seat on the edge of the tub.� I�d let Bettis go though and, as is the case with Breuner, I�d take the full hit now so to clear space in the years following.��� Again, the Steelers may have to negotiate an injury termination.� If so, this should be done and done cleanly; in my opinion, the Steelers should take the full hit this year rather than deferring a portion into 2004 when they�ll have players to extend and, probably, D-side dead money to consume.�� Beyond that, by releasing these players now and re-negotiating some standing deals with others, the FO could spend a portion of their considerable 2004 savings to clear 2003-cap space and then bring in a D-back FA immediately.� That is not true if the B-brothers are released post-June.�

 

Returning to the RB roster:

 

Dan Kreider is as good a lead blocker at FB as exists; further, he has developed as a reasonable check-down option.� Kreider is not a cornerstone player because FB is not a cornerstone position; however, Kreider is a player you can win with and so must be extended.

 

Verron Haynes was thoroughly unimpressive; a 5^th round selection last year, Haynes reminded me more of George Jones (5^th/97) than Barry Foster (5^th/90).� No doubt, he�ll return; hopefully, he�ll develop.

 

Needs:

 

• At minimum, a reliable power complement for Zereoue.� Neither Fu nor Bettis fit the bill; if both were released, the Steelers could clear 1.04M for this purpose.

 

• Ideally, a feature type able to both run inside and line-up as a WR.� This would be a target-of-opportunity type, presumably drafted @ 27 overall, presuming that no suitable D-backs were available.

 

Sources:

 

• Power compliments may be available in FA.� Consider:

 

• Stacy Mack is 27, had (18) TD and 1300 yards over the past two seasons.� In 2001, stepped in for an injured Fred Taylor to be the Jags every-down back.� In 2002, Mack returned to his accustomed role, spelling FT.� He is a solid, proven runner who can catch the ball too.� Hasn�t been beaten down much, should have some useful life remaining; however, I wouldn�t get into a bidding war over this man, or any other FA RB.

 

• Stephen Davis is 29 and has had nearly 1400 carries.� In 2002, he suffered a groin injury, sprained a knee and separated a shoulder that required season-ending surgery.� He is about where the Bus was in 2001; in my book, is a no-go at any price.

 

• Other youngish plungers worth a look include: Shawn Bryson and Sammie Morris (both replaced by Travis Henry in Buffalo).

 

• Feature backs can best be drafted; RB have short life expectancy and it�s highly likely that the FA ROI would be unsatisfactory.� Beyond that, there are no feature types in this year�s FA pool.� However, given the Steelers� D-back issues, a feature type RB would be strictly on a BPA, target-of-opportunity basis such as was discussed previously under TE.

 

Wide Receivers:

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
H. Ward	2005	2.17	Cornerstone player	Cornerstone player	Two-time Pro Bowler, leads by example on the field and off.
P. Burress	2004	2.11	Cornerstone player	Cornerstone player	Gifted, seemingly has taken direction from Ward.� Great chemistry with T-Max.�
A. Randle- El	2005	0.53	Developing cornerstone player	Developing cornerstone player	Made big plays both for and against in the kicking game; excellent hands, rarely drops a pass which makes his fumble propensity all the more puzzling.� On balance though, was an impact player who only figures to improve.
L. Mays	2005, includes RFA year	0.32	Trivial	Trivial	Above average size/speed prospect, was (despite my early reservations) a solid 6th round pick.� Functional as a KO guy but had (0) catches this year; however, remains an intriguing developmental type.
T. Mathis	2002	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	More effective schooling Spike and Randle-El than on the field.� Seemed to slow as the year wore on; however, could come back at the 10-year vet min.
Khori Ivy	2003	Not known.	None	Slight, if any.	6�-2�, 195#, returned kicks at WVU.� Rookie FA in 2001.
D. Levy	2003	Not known.	None	Slight, if any.	6�-0�, 200#, lost in the shuffle when at Pitt.� Rookie FA in 2002.

 

Discussion:

 

Whatever cap issues the Steelers have do not arise from this corps.� Pittsburgh got superb value for their investment here and superb play on the field from the WR group.� Of (7) WR league-wide with 1300 yards receiving in 2002, the Steelers had (2); factor Randle-El with their starting duo and, clearly, the Steelers are set here for the mid-term.�

 

Needs:

 

• Spike looks more like a split TE than a WR; both El and Ward are better underneath than deep; the Steelers could use a burner but, perhaps, either Mays or Ivy will provide the threat, if not the substance.���

 

• Lee Mays struggled when forced to play as a 4^th WR; Mathis seemed to wear down as the season went along.� It is more likely that Mays will improve than that Mathis will turn back the hands of time.� Any required 4^th receiving option may be better met with a #1 type TE or RB who can split wide (as outlined in previous sections).� Either �(but presuming a D-back emphasis not both) may be found as a BPA early in the draft.� Again, I�d plan to reserve the later rounds for upgrades to the D-side reserves; this suggests that Pittsburgh will not draft a WR this spring.

 

• Ward and Randle-El are signed through 2005, Burress through 2004.� That is the same year that Bell�s contract ends.� You�ve got to presume that Bell and Spike are long-term stars; you�ve got to want both on your team over that term.� That so, the FO would do well to look ahead to the winter of 2005 when, as it stands now, they�ll be forced to pick one to franchise, losing the other ala Buffalo �01 who franchised Eric Moulds and lost Marcellus Wiley.�

 

Quarterback:

 

Player	Signed thru	2003 Cap Value ($M)	Bonus hit if cut pre-June 1st   ($M)	Cap Clearance (Loss)   ($M)	Remarks
K. Stewart	2003	6.9	1.62	5.28	Over his (8) years provided both great moments and some dismal moments.� Throughout, gave it all he had to give; now, what he has to deliver here is something worthy in trade value.
T. Maddox	2006	0.83	Cornerstone player for the near term	Cornerstone player for the near term	Comeback player of the year, story of the year.� If not previously, emerged as a team leader in the wildcard playoffs.�
C. Batch	UFA	None	Not applicable	Not applicable	Has starting experience, in fact, may be the best of all the FA QB with starting experience.� In the best case, remains with his hometown Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

Discussion:

 

Tommy Maddox started strong, faltered and then came on again.� After the Tennessee game (once we knew he would walk again), there had to some concern about Maddox�s ability to function in cold weather.� However, the fact that the O-side scored (30) or more in their last (4) cold weather tilts (Carolina, Baltimore and both playoffs) put that concern down.��

 

Then there was his turnover-studded Houston game; very poor, in fact that game cost the Steelers their first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.� Touchdown Tommy had turned to Turnover Tommy but, from Carolina forward, Maddox took considerably better care with the ball.� Add to that his dramatically improved pocket presence from, about Baltimore forward, the field leadership widely reported after the wildcard round, two clutch 4^th quarter comebacks back-to-back and, clearly, Maddox will be (and should be) the guy, at least into the mid-range.

 

Charlie Batch started as a rookie in Detroit, got a huge extension in (as I recall) his second season but then got shown the door when the new West Coast regime arrived.� Batch�s career passing numbers aren�t great but they do surpass Stew�s; factor that Batch did what he did in Detroit behind as bad an O-line as has played in the NFL and you�ve got to conclude that, if he isn�t a quality starter, he is a superb back-up.� I�m sure that he�d move on for a starting opportunity elsewhere but, if that isn�t forthcoming, I imagine he�d rather be a reserve here at home than elsewhere.

 

Tim Levcik took snaps at Robert Morris from that school�s all-time-great center, Hank Fraley.� Fraley made it; maybe, Levcik will too.� It is worth noting that a couple former Steeler 3^rd string QB, Mike Quinn and Anthony Wright, are in this winter�s FA crop.

 

Needs:

 

• A veteran with starting experience who is able, and willing, to back up Tommy Maddox.� Quite obviously, that requires a FA; in the best case, that man would Charlie Batch.

 

• I do not advocate drafting at QB; in general, experience factors more than talent at that position.� This suggests that FA are a better bet than draft picks.� In some article following, I�ll attempt to expand on this point.

 

Sources:

 

• FA only, aside from Batch, here is a list of FA with starting experience:

 

Tony Banks����� Koy Detmer���� Gus Frerotte����

Jeff George������ Kent Graham��� Rob Johnson���

Shaun King������ Shane Matthews

Rodney Peete�� Jake Plummer�� Danny Wuerffel

 

A look back, an ordered list of cap hits for projected 2003 O-side starters:

 

Player	Cap Hit ($M)	Remarks
Jeff Hartings	4.23	A solid player but the Steelers are paying the cost for their unbroken string of failures from �96-�99 in drafting O-linemen.
Alan Faneca	3.80	Worth it, projects as a Pro Bowl fixture.
Hines Ward	2.17	Another Pro Bowl player; great deal by the FO, cap value is identical each year from 2002-2005.
Plaxico Burress	2.11	Best WR not in the Pro Bowl last year; projects to improve.
Amos Zereoue	2.00	Fair price for a good player; Steelers get a steal if this man develops into a franchise type.
Oliver Ross	1.62	Not the best tackle in football but better than Skates Brown; whether he is better than Justin Strylzcek remains to be seen.�
Kendrell Simmons	1.04	Here we see the merits of the Steelers� BPA draft strategy.
Marvel Smith	0.92	Not the best tackle in football but better than Stephens, Wiggins, Conrad and Farris; whether he is better than Justin Strylzcek remains to be seen.�
Tommy Maddox	0.83	In fairness, the Steeler FO should bump this man�s pay; politically, this should happen before T-Max�s agent has to make the request.

 

 

�The sum is 18.72; only (9) players are included as, at the moment, neither Kreider nor Tuman are under contract.� Presuming both are re-signed, we might project a final hit at (or under) 21M.� You may recall that, in the D-side Overview published last week, we saw that (9) projected starters (neither safety spot accounted) will combine for a 2003 cap hit of a bit over 27M

 

Bettis, Breuner and Stewart are excluded; currently, their combined hit is 13.44M or something around 9.5M more than Zereoue, Maddox and (projected) Tuman.� Were those three retained, the O-side and D-side would be about equal leaving only +/-20M to be distributed among (33) players.�� Presently, Stewart is the highest paid player on the O-side; Bettis fits between Hartings and Faneca, Breuner between Faneca and Ward.� That is, Stewart would be #1, Bettis #3 and Breuner #5.�

 

Summary:

 

• Given their D-side issues, that group figures to reap most of next spring�s draft bonanza.� However, it is possible that no D-back will be the BPA @ #27.� There may be opportunity and, certainly, there is room for (1) immediate-impact pick on this side, whether at TE or RB remains to be seen.

 

• At present, the Steelers have no reliable power RB on their roster.� Maybe, they can get one in the 2^nd or 3^rd; however, there is no reason to believe that a second day player would make an immediate impact.� Of the FA RB available, Stacy Mack is the best bet.� Perhaps, to afford him, the Steelers need only cut both Fu and the Bus.� However, if they can�t seal a deal with Mack, then they may be best served by rolling the dice with Fu.

 

• Mark Breuner is the only TE currently on the 2003 roster; however, Mark Breuner should be cut pre-June.� This puts something of a premium on signing Jerame Tuman.� The alternative is to earmark #27 for the best TE on the board; there are no FA options since any quality FA would sooner play where he reasonably could expect to touch the ball.

 

• The Steelers� cap is top-heavy in the interior O-line.� In the past two seasons, they have added to their roster (3) young players at that position including a 1^st round pick, a 5^th round pick and a rookie FA; that describes, more or less, the array standard in the league.� Presuming (2) develop in the near term to pair with Faneca, then the Steelers would be able to adjust their cap towards positions of greater impact.� As Russ Grimm guides that development, that coach is, though indirectly, as significant to the Steelers� near-term future on the D-side as, say, the DC.

 

• Of the veterans liable to be cut, Wayne Gandy figures to be more serviceable in 2003 than either Breuner or the Bus.� That true, then it would be more reasonable to re-sign Gandy than to ride on with the B-brothers.

 

Free Agents:

 

• Wayne Gandy: could be the best short term solution at LOT but the Steelers can�t get into a bidding war with, say, the Fins.

 

• Keydrick Vincent: Yes.

 

• Jerame Tuman:� Yes, for #2+ type money.

 

• Matt Cushing, or Marco Battaglia:� Yes at the vet minimum, either but not both.

 

• John Allred: No, often injured in Chicago and often injured here too.

 

• Terence Mathis:� Yes, due to 10-year rule, would cost just 450K against the cap.

 

• Dan Kreider: Yes, an absolute must sign.

 

• Charlie Batch:� Yes, but probably will need a deal larger than that Maddox has currently.