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Week 7 in Review

October 23, 2002 by Steel Phantom

Week 1

Week 7 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.Takeaways can be an equalizer.YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).

 

Category

Previous

This week

Year to date

Won this stat but lost the game

Total yards rushing

57-23-2

9-4-1

66-27-3

Houston

Jacksonville

Minnesota

Washington

TOP

53-28-1

8-5

61-33-1

Indianapolis

Miami

Kansas City

Washington

100 yard rushers

28-10

8-1

36-11

Jacksonville

>/= +2 Takeaways

39-5

7-0

46-5

 

YPA

66-14-2

9-4

75-18-2

Houston

San Francisco

Seattle

Dallas

Oakland

 

Futility Index, per right-most column above:

 

It was a bad week for YPA; generally, the prime indicator (after takeaways), this category fell to 3rd this week.Consider:

 

Houston�s David Carr threw for 36/267 for 7.41 YPA net; however, (9) sacks reduced the Texans gross to just 5.6.Still, that was better than Cleveland�s (winning!) 4.4 and Houston did have a ground advantage.However, (-2) in takeaways sunk the Texans.

 

San Francisco threw effectively but just a bit better than New Orleans (+0.07 YPA advantage) and lost in every other category.

 

Seattle threw effectively against the Rams but had the ball for less than 20 minutes.

 

Dallas threw for 8.08YPA net but (4) INT kept the Cards in the game until their kicker finally came through.

 

Oakland threw for 7.35 YPA net but San Diego had control of the game, out-rushing the Raiders 172-37.

 

In other indicators:

 

Kansas City had a meager TOP advantage but allowed Denver 507 yards total offense.507.

 

All other losses were turnover related:Minnesota was, as usual, (�4), Miami also was (-4).As mentioned, Houston was (-2) and, as for the Fun �n Gun, well, Pat Ramsey is back on the bench after having fumbled (5) times last week against Green Bay.

 

Steelers Index:

 

  1. In the first (2) games, the 5-wide era, opponents got (108) passes away. The Steelers had (3) INT, (12) PD and (7) sacks.In the past (4) games, the Steelers 2nd season (beginning after their early bye), opponents have gotten (135) passes away.The Steelers have (7) INT, (24) PD and (12) sacks.Displayed table-wise:

 

Period

INT Rate

PD Rate

Sack Rate

YPC against

2001

1 per 32.20

1 per 5.20

1 per 10.55

3.5

Pats, Oakland

1 per 36.0

1 per 9.00

1 per 15.43

4.8 thru (2)

Past (4) games

1 per 19.3

1 per 5.63

1 per 12.25

4.2 thru all (6)

 

  1. Fair�s fair: Brent Alexander has come in for criticism here but against the Colts, Brent did get off the (statistical) snide.Alex had (2) INT, (3) PD and (1) sack, numbers comparable to Porter�s (3) sacks, (2) INT and (1) PD vs. the Raiders in Week 2.�� Then again, Brent was more the recipient than the playmaker on both INT and, of the PD, at least (1) was at the LOS, the kind of play we�d expect of a D-lineman or 2-time Pro Bowl OLB.

 

Against the Bengals, Lee Flowers had (2) INT, doubling his career total but as I wasn�t then ready to knight Lethon in the Order-of- Ballhawk-ala-Lott, I�ll similarly have to see more from Alex.On the plus side, I can�t fault Alex on the Pollard TD; Flowers was up to blitz and Alex was alone in centerfield.Evidently, he broke to his left to give help to Scott vs. Harrison; I�d say one of the LB, presumably Farrior, had to check Pollard on the LOS.Alex was in what amounted to Cover One and while he couldn�t deal, well, few safeties can.

 

  1. Leaving that, Joey Porter set the tone again, this time on ST.It is a statistical oddity that Porter will not get credit for his punt block since, evidently, as the ball got past the LOS, it was punted successfully, not blocked.That�s got to be a thrill for Indy�s Hunter the Punter but, I guess, the rule makes sense since otherwise any dope who might get a finger on a punt that then travels 48 instead of 50 yards would be looking to his stats.Still, a stuff is a stuff is a stuff and, after all, every pro kicker (or punter) to include Toe Peterson can get it+10 yards downfield.

 

  1. In fairness to Petersen: as bad as his KO were Monday (and they were uniformly awful) Vanderjagt, Lord of the Foot, did no better.Both missed 48 �yard FG too.Still, if the Steelers are going anywhere in post-season they need a kicker who can get the ball to the EZ; Petersen has accomplished that about 1/25; he has kicked (what?) (3) OB.Horrendous.

 

  1. Mike Logan turned the tide late with his first INT.Logan also had (3) PD and, at this point, the top (3) Steeler safeties have combined for (5) INT and (11) PD.The top (3) Steeler CB have (1) INT and (15) PD.

 

  1. Haggans defended another pass last night and now has (3).Add to that (3.5) sacks (to include (2) solos and (3) shared) with (1) stuff and you�ve got to wonder what Clark has to do to get more time.Gildon continues to languish with (1) sack, (1) PD and (0.5) stuffs.

 

No doubt we�ll be reading that offenses are sending all (5) O-linemen at Big Sack while keeping a RB and TE in to chip at our Pro Bowl granite so allowing mere schist as Porter, Smith, Bell, Bailey and Logan to heap up stat mountains.Gildon, alone but unvanquished, struggling heroically like Gulliver; it is the stuff of legend�.��

 

Hopefully, when Bell is at full strength, Haggans will not be consigned to sit with Stew.Or better yet, Gildon will begin to play according to his pay.At present, Gildon is the problem; I�m not convinced that Clark is the solution long-term but just now, he looks like a pretty fair stopgap.

 

  1. Credit to Aaron Smith; generally, lumped in with Gildon in the DNP (did not perform) column, Smith, in fact, has risen to 4th on the team in tackles and T-2 in tackles behind the LOS with (2) sacks and (3.5) stuffs.Smith got effective, consistent pressure on Manning Monday; in fact, he was primarily responsible for Alex�s 1st pick.

 

  1. In just under (13) quarters with Maddox at QB, the Steelers have scored (101) points.Factoring out Randle-El�s return, that�s still +7.23 points per quarter, say 30 per game.

 

  1. The Steelers run attack has improved dramatically.After the Browns game, that unit had just 3.1 YPC; now, they are at 4.4, T-12th in the league.

 

  1. For the first time this season, the Steelers are gaining more than they�re giving.As stated, they�ve run at 4.4 YPC while giving 4.2.They�ve thrown for 7.03 while giving 6.47.

 

  1. The Steelers have won when they�ve been even (Browns) or better (Bengals and Colts) in takeaways.If not, not.

 

Errata:

 

In last week�s Index, I had Michael Bennett returning kicks for the Bengals.Mike is with the Vikes; the Bengal Bennett is Brandon.��

 

Next Opponent:

 

Two weeks ago, the Ravens came up short 20-22 in action against the home-standing Colts.The Raven defense played pretty well allowing Indy just 317 yards total offense, stuffing Edge on 17/43 though allowing Manning 30/40 for 284 yards with (1) TD.Marvin Harrison had 150 yards receiving; the other Colts did little.The Ravens forced just (1) turnover but did get to Peyton (5) times.

 

By way of comparison, Monday night the Steelers allowed 367 yards total offense.They stuffed James about as effectively as the Lewis-less Ravens had.Manning had more yards prime-time than against the Ravens and the Steelers had fewer sacks; however, the key indicator (net YPA) was fairly even.The Colts had just 5.9 yards per pass play against the Steelers; they had 5.7 against the Ravens.Add the Steelers 3 to 1 advantage in INT and, well, there you go.

 

On balance, the Steeler and Poe-bird D-sides played the Colts with (roughly) equal efficiency.Of course, the bottom line is points allowed and, there, the Steelers rule 10-20.Aside from takeaways, the difference was on offense.

 

Baltimore had 244 yards total offense against the Colts; the Steelers had 364. While TOP was about the same in both games, TWB (time way behind) was not.

 

The Raven offense isn�t doing much; last week they had just 261 yards total offense against the Jags.Frankly, their only guns are Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap.Lewis went for 21-75 against the Colts; we saw the Colts and 21/75 isn�t great.However, Lewis had 28/119 against the Jags; as bad as the Colts may be, the Jax-front is worse.

 

TE Todd Heap had (2) TD receptions in the Ravens victory over Jacksonville; given the Steelers problems with TE, to include Pollard cruising unchecked on a slant for Indy�s only TD Monday, God help us.

 

Whatever; figure the Raven D-side and Steelers as about equal.As a thought experiment, ask yourself whether the Steeler O-side could take the Steeler D and then place your bets.I�ll stick with Tommy�

 

In point of fact, the Ravens have been generally outplayed on both sides of the ball exactly because their offense is entirely ineffectual.The Ravens are ranked 30th overall: 18th rushing and 31st passing.This is due, not to their skill players but to an O-line that, excluding LOT Jon Ogden, lacks NFL-quality talent.By means of comparison, Cincinnati is 31st on the O-side, about a yard per game behind the Poe-birds,

 

All things equal, the results in Baltimore will be similar to those in the Queen City.However, takeaways are the great leveler; the Ravens are +2 in this department, the Steelers are �5.On the plus side, the Steelers are +4 over the last (4) games.If that trend continues, the Steelers will win easily.If not it�ll be a struggle in Charm City.

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