Here is a look at the AFC playoff scenario after NFL Week # 13 with four games remaining in the 2005-06 campaign:
|
1. Indy (12-0) |
W |
L |
|
2. Denver (9-3) |
W |
L |
|
3. Cincy (9-3) |
W |
L |
|
4. New England (7-5) |
W |
L |
|
Jacksonville |
9 |
3 |
|
Baltimore |
4 |
8 |
|
Cleveland |
4 |
8 |
|
Buffalo |
4 |
8 |
|
San Diego |
8 |
4 |
|
Buffalo |
4 |
8 |
|
Detroit |
4 |
8 |
|
Tampa Bay |
8 |
4 |
|
Seattle |
9 |
2 |
|
Oakland |
4 |
8 |
|
Buffalo |
4 |
8 |
|
NY Jets |
2 |
10 |
|
Arizona |
4 |
8 |
|
San Diego |
8 |
4 |
|
Kansas City |
8 |
4 |
|
Miami |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
30 |
17 |
|
Total |
20 |
28 |
|
Total |
20 |
28 |
|
Total |
19 |
29 |
|
Opp. Win % |
0.638 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.417 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.417 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.396 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5. Jacksonville (9-3) |
W |
L |
|
6. San Diego (8-4) |
W |
L |
|
7. Kansas City (8-4) |
W |
L |
|
8. Pittsburgh (7-5) |
W |
L |
|
Indianapolis |
12 |
0 |
|
Miami |
5 |
7 |
|
Dallas |
7 |
5 |
|
Chicago |
9 |
3 |
|
San Francisco |
2 |
10 |
|
Indianapolis |
12 |
0 |
|
NY Giants |
8 |
4 |
|
Minnesota |
7 |
5 |
|
Houston |
1 |
11 |
|
Kansas City |
8 |
4 |
|
San Diego |
8 |
4 |
|
Cleveland |
4 |
8 |
|
Tennessee |
3 |
9 |
|
Denver |
9 |
3 |
|
Cincinnati |
9 |
3 |
|
Detroit |
4 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
18 |
30 |
|
Total |
34 |
14 |
|
Total |
32 |
16 |
|
Total |
24 |
24 |
|
Opp. Win % |
0.375 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.708 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.667 |
|
|
Opp. Win % |
0.500 |
|
Sunday�s loss to the Bengals seriously hampered our chances at going to the playoffs, and, considering the way we are playing, maybe missing the playoffs may not be such a bad thing. Still, there is a decent chance we can make it as the #6 Wildcard, and an outside shot at the division...Here is how it happens:
DIVISION
To win the division, the Steelers either need to gain three games on the Bengals, or win out while the Bengals lose to the Browns
and Lions.
If the two teams end up tied, the Steelers will lose on the divisional record unless the Steelers beat the Browns and the Bengals lose
to the Browns. If that happens, then it'll be common opponents:
Cleveland +1 for Steelers
Minnesota +1 for Bengals (Steelers to play)
Chicago +1 for Bengals (Steelers to play)
Houston Even
Jacksonville Even
Tennessee Even
Green Bay Even
Baltimore +1 for Bengals
Indianapolis Even
Detroit Even (Both to play)
Two of the remaining games for the Bengals are against common opponents, and all of the Steelers games are against common
opponents. Since the Bengals have a two-game advantage here, they Steelers would need to win all of their remaining
games, and the Bengals would have to lose to the Browns and Lions. End result: the Steelers have to win next week and the Bengals need to lose against the Browns to have any shot of winning the division.
WILD CARD
However, that's all in the Bengals' hands as they would need to at least lose two of the next four even if the Steelers win out.
What happens if they don't and the Steelers are relegated to wild card competition?
The combinations here get pretty hairy, so I'll make the assumptions that Denver will win the AFC West and the
#2 AFC East team is unlikely to be in contention.
Jacksonville (9-3) is now two games up on the Steelers, one game ahead of San Diego (8-4), and Kansas City (8-4). If we assume they get one of the spots, then it'll be between the Steelers, Chargers, and Chiefs for the final wild card spot.
One bit of good news is that the Chiefs and Chargers play each other, so one of them is guaranteed a loss. The Steelers
need to make up a game on the Chiefs and a game on the Chargers to be tied. The Steelers would get
a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers, but would almost certainly lose a tiebreaker against the Chiefs due to the
6-5 AFC record of the Steelers (the Chiefs are 7-3).
The only way they wouldn't lose that tiebreaker would be for the Chiefs to lose to both the Bengals and Chargers, while the
Steelers beat the Browns.
In that case, the Chiefs would be 8-6 with games plus games against the Cowboys and Giants, and the Steelers would be 8-5
with games against Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit. I'm not sure about how the common opponent goes (when one team
has faced a common opponent once and the other team has faced a common opponent twice). I think the Steelers would
win that tiebreaker though.
I think we have to hope for the Chiefs to collapse, and for the Steelers to catch up to the Chargers to have a shot
at the last spot.
From here it gets wilder and wilder, so let's just leave it with the fact that the Steelers *do* still have a shot to
make the playoffs. The important thing about all this is that the Steelers can't control what other teams do, so they
just have to focus on the Bears for next week. Right now they're in the 8th spot, so they need to make up some
ground.
Staff Note: ChiTraderRob has authored this playoff analysis. The staff is working with him to update his table and analysis weekly until the playoffs are set. He is focused on the AFC race but if time permits, he may delve into the NFC playoff race.