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Week 17 in Review

December 30, 2002 by Steel Phantom

Week 1

Week 17 in Review:

 

Long-term Stiller.com fans may remember the stat breakout shown below as similar to those begun last season.� The first (3) categories are variants of the traditional �control the tempo� paradigm.� Takeaways can be an equalizer.� YPA is (yards per passing attempt); TOP is (time of possession).�

 

Category

Previous

This week

Year to date

Won this stat but lost the game

Total yards rushing

156-64-5

12-3

168-67-5

New Orleans

Miami

Jacksonville

TOP

164-60-1

12-3

176-63-1

Miami

Houston

Green Bay

100 yard rushers

81-35

3-2

84-37

New Orleans

Miami

>/= +2 Takeaways

103-10

4-3

107-13

Philadelphia

Miami

San Diego

YPA

174-45-6

12-3

186-48-6

Baltimore

Atlanta

Chicago

 

Futility Index:

 

While takeaway differential is by far the leading indicator, that didn�t hold up this week:

 

  • Philadelphia was (+3) in takeaways.� However, the NYG pushed the Eagles all over the field, dominating in every other category.� Basically, this was Tiki Barber�s game to win or lose; Barber had (276) yards total offense to go with his (3) turnovers.� The later stat gave the Eagles their last gasp in regulation but Pro Bowl PK David Akers went wide.� In overtime, Barber held on and, as throughout the game, the Giants moved the ball at will, predominately on this man�s efforts.

 

  • Miami was (+2) in takeaways; Ricky Williams rushed for (185) and the Fins led 24-21 until Adam Vinatieri kicked a 43-yard FG at 1:09 in the 4th.� Presumably, the Fins lost the flip and, shortly thereafter, Vinatieri ended their season.� It is worth noting that Miami had just (103) passing, at a horrific 4.0 YPA.� They also had a missed FG and shanked punt late.

 

  • San Diego was (+2) in takeaways but gave up (591) yards total offense.

 

Aerial futility doomed the Fins, Jags and Saints:

 

  • Jacksonville averaged 3.9 YPA.

 

  • New Orleans averaged 3.4 YPA.

 

  • As mentioned, Miami averaged 4.0 YPA.

 

While the W/L mark for takeaway differential was low this week, this indicator still factored.�

 

  • Chicago threw for just 4.4 YPA; that�s bad but better than the Bucs 3.7.� However, the Bears were (-4) in the takeaway department.

 

  • Baltimore shredded the Steelers for 8.1 yards per play including 5.0 YPC and 10.6 YPA.� That should have enough to offset a nearly 13 minute TOP margin.� However, (-2) in takeaways killed the Poe-birds especially considering (2) were EZ INT.

 

As for Atlanta, well, they had (4) takeaways but that partially was offset by (3) TO.� Their YPA edge against the Browns was considerable though their efficiency, 5.38 YPA, was not good.� The difference in the game was, of course, RB William Green who had (178) yards rushing including (2) TD of 21 and 64 yards.� Coming into the game, Green�s previous long run was just 23 yards.

 

Steelers Index:

 

  1. The Steeler defense finished a respectable 7th NFL-wide in YPG.� However, their 302.2 mark was 49.4 YPG behind #1, Tampa Bay.�� #25, Chicago, was 48.2 YPG behind the Steelers.� In that sense, the B&G D-side was just a bit closer to #25 than to #1.

 

  1. In fairness, it should be noted that Tampa Bay was in class alone.� #2 Carolina finished @ 290.4 YPG, that�s just 11.8 ahead of Pittsburgh.� St. Louis was 13th about 11 YPG behind the Steelers.� In that sense, the Steelers were about as close to #13 as to #2.� Give or take, that�s where #7 belongs; regardless, the B&G dropped from 258.7 YPG in 2001 to 302.2 this past season and that 43.5 YPG differential is highly significant.

 

  1. The Steelers finished with (19) INT, (3) more than last season; however, they defended (4) fewer passes than in 2001.� Grossly, that�s a push, (116) total this year (19 INT + 97 PD) vs. (117) last (16 INT + 101 PD).� However, opponents got off (573) passes this year, last year, just (525).� Had the 2002 Steelers defended at the same rate as in 2001, they would have had (11) more in the PD + INT column.

 

  1. The 2002 Steelers finished 3rd in the NFL with (50) sacks.� That�s down a bit from 2001 when they had (55).� It is worth noting that those (55) came on a total of (580) passes called (525 passes off + 55 sacks).� This year, opponents called (623) passes (573 passes off + 50 sacks).� Had the 2002 Steelers achieved the 0.094 sack rate of 2001 then they would have had (59) sacks this season.

 

  1. All in all, the Steelers made about (20) fewer plays against the pass this year than we might have expected from their 2001 rates.� That�s not good but the fall-off in their run play was much worse.� In 2001, the Steelers had (74) stuffs on (339) running attempts.� This year, the Steelers had (45) stuffs on (359) running attempts.� That�s (29) fewer stuffs against (20) more runs.� The 2001-stuff rate was 0.22, from this; we�d be looking for (78) stuffs in 2002 or (33) more than actually occurred.

 

  1. By far, the biggest drop-off in production came from the starting LB.� In 2001, the quartet of Bell, Porter, Holmes and Gildon accomplished (71.5) TFL; this included (39) stuffs and (32.5) sacks.� This year, the quartet of Porter, Farrior, Bell and Gildon combined for (39.5) TFL; this included (17.5) stuffs and (22) sacks.� The stuff decline for the LB corps, (21.5), is a major portion of both the actual drop-off (29) and the projected drop (33) cited above.� The sack decline, (10.5) exceeds both the actual drop (5) and the projected drop (9) cited above.

 

  1. The Steeler offense finished #5 @ 372 YPG.� This was 17.8 YPG behind #1 Oakland and 18.9 YPG ahead of #9 St. Louis.� #5 fits exactly between #1 and # 9 suggesting that, unlike T-Bay on the D-side, Oakland�s O-side efficiency was not anomalous.

 

  1. Hines Ward and Plax Burress finished 4-5 NFL-wide in receiving yards @ 1320+.� Marvin Harrison was alone at +1700; however, Moss and Toomer were both within range @ 1340+.� Joe Horn and Eric Moulds were just a bit up the track @ 6 and 7 overall.� Of seven WR league-wide with 1300 yards or more, the Steelers fielded two.� Quite obviously, that is exceptional.

 

  1. There were (17) 1000-yard rushers NFL-wide this year.� Another (7) had 900 or better.� Amoz was #29 with 762 and Bettis #33 with 666.� This Steeler tandem totaled (1428) which, somehow combined, would have been good just for 6th overall, behind Travis Henry and ahead of Deuce McAllister.�

 

  1. It wasn�t for lack of carries: of (28) ball carriers ahead of Amoz, only (4) had a lower YPC than his 3.9.� Those were Eddie George (3.4), William Green (3.7) and Emmitt Smith with Duce Staley (3.8).� Of (32) ball carriers ahead of the Bus, only (4) had a lower YPC than his 3.6.� They were: George, A-Train (3.4), and Lamar Smith with Michael Pittman (3.5).

 

  1. Tommy Maddox finished with a QB rating of 85.2.� That was 17th overall though, shamefully, this also was a Steeler single-season record.� On the plus side, Maddox finished 4th in TD% and 5th in the all-important YPA mark.

 

Playoff Opponents:

 

On the O-side, the last (5) Steeler regular season opponents finished (respectively) Jags (25), Texans (32), Panthers (31), Bucs (24), and Ravens (26) in YPG.� Their (5) prospective playoff opponents finished: Browns (23), Jets (22), Titans (17), Colts (10) and Raiders (1).� The worst offense in the AFC playoffs is somewhat better than the best of the Steelers� past five regular season opponents.

 

On the D-side, the last (5) Steeler opponents finished (respectively) Jags (20), Houston (16), Carolina (2), Bucs (1) and Ravens (22).� Their (5) prospective playoff foes were: Jets (24), Browns (21), Oakland (11), Titans (10) and Colts (8).

 

Put it together:

 

Team

Offense

Defense

Added

Pittsburgh

5

7

12

Oakland

1

11

12

Indianapolis

10

8

18

Titans

17

10

27

Browns

23

21

44

Jets

22

24

46

 

From that point of view, the Steelers should be co-favorites.� Of course, there�s always that pesky turnover thing�

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