The Prophecy (Game #10)

Talent wise, the Jets are completely eclipsed by the Steelers. The Jets come in with one of the league�s worst defenses, and the only concern I have for the offense is what the Jets will do scheme wise. When it comes to individual match-ups, there aren�t any problems. The Jets offense is a bit more concerning, but a young and raw QB isn�t going to keep LeBeau up at night.

The Jets have one match-up they can try to exploit to apply pressure. That�s Shaun Ellis on one of the Steelers guards (most likely Kendall Simmons). This is a bit concerning, but I write this every week. They aren�t going to win this game with a single pass rusher.

The Jets have no one on their defense who can win individual match-ups. They�ve failed to get a pass rushing OLB in either of Mangini�s two seasons with the team, and much like with the Browns, it leaves them with very vulnerable to the pass. These guys have less talent in the secondary, however.

To apply pressure, the Jets have been resorting to a number of tricks. They will use some four man fronts. They have been trying to stunt to manufacture pressure and they have some exotic blitzes the Steelers need to watch out for. They have one formation where they overload one side of the offense. Every defender will be standing and moving around pre-snap. It�s not a threat until third and long, but it�s something to watch out for. I expect Mangini to bring pressure from all angles when he can. It�s the weakness of this OL, and it�s his only chance.

Revis has the physical tools at corner. His technique needs a lot of work still. He�s had issues playing the man instead of the ball. I expect the Steelers to attack him vertically. If nothing else, there�s a good chance of grabbing a flag.

Hank Poteat is their nickel man. Mangini needs to hide him. He will pretty much always have help over top, and if he doesn�t, the Steelers will attack him deep. They want to leave him in zone for obvious reasons.

The only playmaker Ben needs to worry about is SS Kerry Rhodes. He is one of the better young safeties in the league. They ask him to do a bit of everything, and he�s capable of it. The Steelers are used to playing dynamic safeties this season, and should have no problems avoiding him given the state of everyone else on this defense.

The only concern I have is the coverages and exotic looks Mangini can throw at Roethlisberger. Unfortunately for the Jets, the Steelers, like most teams, will be able to run them out of it and keep him from hiding these corners.

The Steelers should be going for the big play against this team in the passing game. They are allowing the second most yards per attempt, and have given up as many big plays as anyone in the league. The passing game should mostly be based off play-action and the run game this week.

This is the worst three man front in the league. Teams have absolutely no need to double or chip any of these guys, and they�re still getting driven off the ball consistently. The Steelers guards will get on these ILB�s cleanly for most of the game, and that�s the end of the Jets chances.

Ellis is pretty much completely out of place in the three four, and I expect the Steelers to run right down his throat.

Their biggest weakness is the lack of a true NT. Robertson simply wasn�t made to be a two gap NT for a 3-4. There�s no excuse for Mahan not controlling him this week. If he can�t get the job done, he�s not even a worthy stop gap at center.

This week, the Steelers should have over 200 yards on the ground one way or another. Anything else is unacceptable.

The Steelers have one nice advantage this week against the Jets. They�ve seen a similar offense twice this year when they faced the Browns. They�ll something very close to it against next week against the Dolphins (Fins and Brownies have pretty much identical offenses). They have some of the same personnel packages. All of these teams will give a good deal of 3-wides and 2-TE�s. All three try to involve their backs in the passing game and use a lot of quick passes to keep a defense off guard.

While Clemens was inserted into the line-up, the Jets have not passed down field anymore then when Pennington was in the game. That could change this week for all anyone knows, but they haven�t shown it so far. Putting Clemens in has served no real purpose. This is a dink-and-dunk offense that will use a lot of three step drops. Most of their passes will be 10 yards or under.

The best way to deal with offenses like these is to clog the underneath throwing lanes. The Steelers have no need to blitz more then four or five on any given play. Clemens will release the ball before the pressure has much of a chance to get there (much like with Anderson last week). Showing pressure and dropping into coverage will be much more effective.

The disadvantage of getting rid of the ball quickly is that the QB may be baited into mistakes. A young QB may stare down his receiver and give the DB a chance to make a play. Last week, Tomlin said the Steelers would play a lot of zone. The same should be true this week. Clemens will lock in and probably make a few throws into coverage this week. LeBeau knows how to disguise coverage, and that�s the important issue going into this game.

The Jets have one of the better WR tandems in the league. Maybe one of the better trios, actually. Unless they begin to attack vertically, it just doesn�t concern me.

Haggans and Harrison should have good days on the edge. Ferguson has struggled so far in his career. Harrison should get the edge on him multiple times in this game. He plays too high and defenders are frequently able to get leverage on him. It also prevents him from getting the proper angle on his man. Haggans will be up against a journeyman RT. Clement is slow-footed.

The Jets run game has been anemic all year, and that won�t change this week. Their biggest two issues are a lack of patience with it (surprising, given a Schottenheimer is the offensive coordinator) and that teams are able to play with an extra defender in the box. Teams have little fear of bringing the safety up when the Jets refuse to throw the ball down field. I expect the Jets to run the ball jus enough to try and keep the Steelers honest. That�s about tall they can hope for. I worry more about Jones and Washington catching passes then running.

Jones is an inside runner. Mangold is a finesse blocker. If he doesn�t seal a DT, he�s had little success moving him. His only change in this game is trying to ride Hampton up field, because he stands no chance of getting a shoulder on him or moving him. With the inside lanes taken away, the battle is pretty much won. Mangold at this point is a very mediocre player in any scheme. Those Steelers fans who still cling to the delusion that he would have been a good pick need to get over it. Maybe seeing him get dominated live this week by Hampton will shut them up. He�s best left uncovered.

Ferguson hasn�t been quite what the Jets expected. So far in his career, he�s been a stronger presence in the ground game. He�s doing a good job sealing his man and holding his blocks. He�s matched up well against smaller DE�s who he�s able to lock up on. Unfortunately, Keisel isn�t that sort of player, and the Steelers are very good at sticking to their responsibilities in the ground game. Harrison may have some problems coming off his block, but he won�t be turned and he shouldn�t be moving backwards. He�ll have his lane and the ILB�s (or a safety) should be free to make the play.

Neither the RT or RG worries me on Aaron Smith. He won�t lose many match-ups. Brandon Moore can�t handle DT�s alone, and he�s better at the second level. He�s not going to get there. He�ll have to help on Smith or Hampton on any inside running play.

The x-factor in this game is Leon Washington. He�s not a great player, but he is good. He contributes to the team in a lot of minor ways. He�s a solid change of pace back when they get him involved, and very good at catching passes out of the backfield. His biggest contribution, however, is in the return game. Washington may be the second best returner in the league right now (behind Hester). He�s explosive, decisive, and has excellent vision. When he sees a hole, he�s going to exploit it. The Steelers have had problems staying in their lanes, especially the left side of the coverage team. I�m going to hope that last weeks squib return on Cribbs was a fluke and that the players who missed tackles learned their lessons. I expect the Steelers to deal with Washington by kicking short. I�m going out on a limb and saying that they bottle him up.

The Steelers should run all over this team, and nothing else should really matter offensively. If the Steelers get their play-action working, the Jets stand no chance. This should be a good day for Roethlisberger to work on his deep ball. The only concern I have defensively is that the Jets, coming off their bye week, may open their offense up some. They believe Clemens has a bigger arm, so you would figure they would use it. But, still, the difference in talent is overwhelming and that�s a small concern.