2005 Game 13 Preview

December 09, 2005 by Steel Phantom

2005 Game 13 Preview

For the third week running, the Steelers draw a division leader. They are 0-2 in the past two; on the season, 1-3 (Cincinnati twice, Indianapolis and NE). That 1-3 mark carries through their tilts against teams with (contemporaneous) winning records too. They�ve split with Cincinnati but been whipped by Indy and Jacksonville.

The Bears� mark is opposite. Chicago is 3-1 against teams with winning records, at the time of the tilt, including a win two weeks ago against division-leading Carolina, followed by another over Tampa Bay. At this point, the Bears are about 2 wins from wrapping the NFC North, while the Steelers� playoff aspirations are circling the drain. In September, who�d have thought it? Beginning where both teams made their bones:

D-side comparison, Chicago and Pittsburgh:

PPG

YPG

Plays faced

Rush

YPC

Pass

YPA

v. QB

Rating

Sack %

Takes

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

18.8

#11

299.8

#10

768

#23

3.3

6.64

#14

75.9

#12

7.9%

#10

42.5%

#30

859

#31

Bears

10.6

262.8

771

#25

3.4

T-2

5.62

59.9

7.8%

28.4%

772

#22

The Bears are #1 in 5 of 10 categories noted above. Here�s another: RZ defense where they have allowed 6 TD in 30 trips. That is 20%; 40% may be described as <standard excellent>.

The Bears are top 5 in two others and 7^th in a 3^rd. Amazing, considering they are 25^th in plays against.

Bottom line: that 10.6 PPG mark puts this Chi-edition on pace for #2 all-time, just behind the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, who allowed 165 points in 16 regular season tilts. 10.31 per.

Bears D-personnel:

The Bears rotate 7 to 8 D-linemen insuring they�ll have 4 fresh through 4 quarters. Ian Scott starts on the nose; Tommy Harris is the UT although, when the Bears show 3 down, Harris will line up at LDE too. Harris is not a big DT but he is strong and he is sudden. Tank Johnson, drafted R2 2004, same year as Harris, is an interior rush specialist. Backup NT Alphonso Boone will tandem with Scott on run downs.

LDE Adewale Ogunleye leads the team with 9.5 sacks; a quality rusher, O-gun is long and light but displays excellent leverage against the run. To a lesser extent, the same is true of RDE Alex Brown. Brown has dropped 20# from his ineffectual days under Dick Jauron; he is a good rusher now, excellent dropping in coverage and acceptable at the POA. The backups are Israel Idonije and Michael Haynes; of the two, Haynes, a 2003 R1 pick now approaching bust status, gets the least time.

Lovie Smith was LB coach in Tampa Bay under Tony Dungy. It could be said he is a Dungy prot�g�. However, the Bears version of Dungy 2 is not identical to that found in Indy. To cite one example, Colt D-linemen have 37 of Indy�s 39 sacks. In contrast, Bear D-linemen have just 24 of Chicago�s 37. That said, the Bears� 4 backups do have 7; all Steeler D-linemen, including starters, have 6.

But, Dungy 2 to Dungy 2, the difference between Indy and the Windy City is all in the LB corps. It�s fairly simple: Brian Urlacher is the best blitzing MLB in football and WOLB Lance Briggs is the Derrick Brooks of the New Millennium. This pair plays fast and they play with force; the third guy, SOLB Hunter Hillenmeyer is a smart player but no special athlete.

The Bears are strong on the corners but questionable at the safety spot. LCB Nathan �the Interceptor� Vasher has 7 INT and 11 PD. Vasher has scored twice which, apropos of nothing, is a figure exceeded by just 2 members of the Chi-O. RCB Charles Tillman will draw Hines Ward, left side or right, Tillman draws an opponent�s #1 each week. Once paired with Ike Taylor, at La-Lafayette, Tillman is long and has great leaping ability. His capacity to turn and run is questionable; he is, absolutely, susceptible to double moves.

Mike Brown has led the Bear secondary since 2000, when he was drafted R2, behind Urlacher. Brown can deal a blow down inside but isn�t much in halves. Todd Johnson will start at SS Sunday; Johnson is a great ST player and solid in run support. He is worthless in coverage.

The Bears package of choice this season has been heavy nickel but with their 3^rd S starting that is unlikely Sunday. Instead, it figures NCB Jerry Azumah will play in packages, with Hillenmeyer sitting. Azumah is getting on, at one time a quality starter at the spot, he now contributes primarily as a KR. That said, multi-wide does not figure to be a feature in the Steelers� game plan Sunday.

What to expect:

The Bear defense has few weaknesses but they do have some. They have allowed a fair number of big plays through the air. They have shown some susceptibility with respect to power runners too. On the season, the Chi-D has allowed only 11 TD but 7 came in three games. Those 3 tilts are tabulated below; it is worth noting that Chicago is 1-2 in those contests. Mainly, that is because their O is remarkably ineffectual.

3 games when the Bear-D allowed > 1 TD ((thru 12 games):

Opponent	Score	# TD allowed	Of note	QB production otherwise	Feature RB
Cincinnati	7-24	3	All 3 by air totaling 94 yards	Palmer: 3.65 YPA on 20 (other) attempts	Johnson: 84/25
Cleveland	10-20	2	Both by air totaling 61 yards	Dilfer: 4.9YPS on 32 (other)attempts	Droughns: 72/17
New Orleans	20-17	2	I rushing, I passing	Long gain:42. All others, Brooks 5.12 YPA	Smith: 110/17 LG 42.

In general, the Bears have 3 match-up advantages:

Bear DE v. Steeler OT, both sides.
Tommy Harris (or Tank Johnson) v. Kendall Simmons.
Nathan Vasher v. any PS WR excluding Hines Ward.

In general, the Steelers have two matchup advantages:

Heath Miller v. either Hunter Hillenmeyer or any active Bear S.
Hines Ward v. Charles Tillman: not every time, but sooner or later.

Keys:

Get Heath Miller in pattern: Miller is no worse than the #2 receiver on this 2005 Steeler team. He has a matchup advantage against any back 7 Bear defender, excluding Brian Urlacher.

Pick the right RB: The Bears have shown some susceptibility to power backs. The Steelers have two of the ilk , purportedly; however, Bettis is not the guy. Last week, it was observed here that, in 4 losses, the Bus was 0/8 on 1^st down carries. The PS lost last week too, a tilt in which Bettis added 3 carries to his losing total. So, that�s 0/11. Here�s the thing (and it�s not tough to figure): Bettis is all done. If the Steelers have any at all RB suitable to deal with the Chi-D (and that is no sure thing), that man is Duce Staley.

Protect with 7, even 8 and go long: Not every down, of course, but look at the numbers tabulated above. The Bears don�t give much but they do give it up some. Two TD should be enough to win and in winning time, the two PS receivers must be: Ward and Miller. Make it so.

On the other side of the ball:

O-side Comparison, Chicago and Pittsburgh

PPG

YPG

TOP

Rush

YPG

Pass

YPA

Rating

Sack %

Against

Turnovers

3^rd down

Penalty

Yards

Steelers

22.8

#11

310.2

#20

30:11

#16

123.6

#10

8.64

101.5

7.4%

#21

T-9

30.9

#30

647

#22

Bears

16.8

#14

255

#28

28:54

#25

133.2

T-5

5.15

#32

60.2

#32

7.3%

#20

#26

28.5

#31

729

#14

� Passer rating and YPA shown are for Roethlisberger and Orton individually; those are not team totals. #32 doesn�t express Orton�s inadequacy; his numbers are far worse than any starter.

� These teams are two of the worst converting 3^rd downs. The Bear O is as bad in that aspect as the Bear D is good.

Bears� O personnel:

OC Olin Kreutz is a quality player and LT John Tait is an above average starter, somewhat better in the run game than pass. However, that�s it for Chicago upfront. LG Reuben Brown is a retread. Once a top flight run blocker, long ago (in Buffalo), Brown devolved into a penalty machine. At this point, he�s just holding on. Literally. RG Terrance Metcalf is a Kendall Simmons type, like Simmons, this player carries far too much weight for his frame. By NFL standards, he is small, weak and slow. RT Fred Miller is stone cold awful; very probably the League�s worst starting RT last season (his last with Tennessee), Miller has not improved one year on.

Four of those players are on the injury report. Metcalf is questionable, the others probable. If Metcalf can�t go, Robert Garza is next in line. Garza started 15 games last year in Atlanta; he is a good athlete, but out of place outside of Alex Gibbs� system.

Muhsin Mohammad is about it for Chi-WR. Mohammad has 48 receptions; the next guy, Justin Gage, has 20. Both are big guys: Mohammad is one of the League�s best blocking WR; Gage will get in the way. The Bears drafted Mark Bradley to provide some downfield threat. He did, before blowing a knee. At this point, the Bear air game has no vertical component.

Perhaps, Mohammad could provide that but not with Kyle Orton at the helm. Orton does have a strong arm but he is inaccurate and, recently, indecisive. Not a recipe for success; in fact, here are some results from the Bears� last 5 tilts:

	# Bear possessions	# TD	Length of TD drive	# TO	# punts	Opponents� D ranks (YPG)
Green Bay	13	0	NA	2	6	#8
Tampa Bay	12	1	1 yard	1	8	#2
Carolina	13	1	8 yards	1	7	#4
SF	11	1	76 yards	1	6	#32
New Orleans	14	2	38 yards 94 yards	3	6	#11

� The Bear O has been throttled by some good defenses but San Francisco put them down too.

� The Bear O has mounted 2 long TD drives in the past 63 possessions; they have scored 5 TD in the same period. One, 94 v. New Orleans, featured a 36-yard run by backup RB Adrian Peterson. However, it is worth noting that could have choked off early; PI, away from the play, having nullified a Saint INT.

Orton has earned some pundits� praise for game management but that is not warranted. True, he hasn�t had a 5-pick debacle since blowing Cincinnati. However, he hasn�t made many plays either. Even casting out that Bengal encounter, Orton�s (revised) pick rate, 3.0%, would be in the middle of the pack. As is, his 4.2% is near the bottom. Setting that aside, the key stat is YPA. Orton�s mark, 5.15, is 0.62 behind #31, Joey Harrington. Perspective? In the bad old days here, 1999, Kordell Stewart managed 5.3.

The Bears have nothing in the air but they do have some RB. Thomas Jones is a smallish back with good, not great, speed. However, he runs low, has great balance and does have some wiggle. Adrian Peterson is a similar type, but more straight-line. The Bears cannot get movement on their right but have had good success running inside LT John Tait.

What to expect:

The Steelers had to play a quantity of packages in the past two weeks but that will not eventuate this Sunday. The Bear O is tailor made for the PS base D. They are run heavy; the PS Okie is designed to crush the run. They have one receiver, no more; therefore, the PS can play Cover 3, dropping a S into the box and their LB can play going forward, not in reverse. In that respect, this Bear offense matches the Houston Texans, circa 2002. Then, a highly questionable Steeler base defeated one offensive offensive unit. We should expect the same Sunday.

Keys v. Chicago O:

Limit Thomas Jones: Jones is a far better back than any Houston had in 2002. If these Bears can get anything done, Jones will be the difference. Upfront, the key matches are KVO v. Tait and Hampton v. Kreutz. It is worth noting that Jones can catch the ball too. His 20 receptions are 3^rd on the team. If the Bears cannot move it on the ground, they will try to make the PS LB cover. The 2005 PSD has been outstanding against #1 WR. However, the PS ILBs have been exploited all season, in the pass and on the ground. That figures to continue through Sunday.

Nothing easy: Last week, Green Bay pressed the Bear receivers. Denied any easy tosses, Orton collapsed, ending 6/17 for 69 yards. Factor three Pack sacks and the Bears achieved all of 49 yards passing offense.

Special teams: In a game both defenses figure to dominate, special teams will decide it. Neither team has an advantage, rather the opposite.

PS kick coverage: In Baltimore, once, and last week, twice, the Steeler KR coverage unit has been gashed. All three led to scores; all were momentum killers.

Bears� punt return: The Bears are ranked high in PR but that is mainly the result of one +70-yard TD by Bobby Wade. Wade has fumbled or muffed 7 balls in 38 chances (29 returns and 9 FC). He lost his job, briefly, to Rashied Davis but last week Davis failed to catch two. So, if only by default, Wade will be back in Sunday.

Conclusion:

Twice, the Steeler franchise has been an incubator for defensive innovation. At the inception of the Cowher Era, Coach Bill, Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers devised the 3-4 zone blitz. Effectively, that scheme peaked with Blitzburgh, in 1994-95. Since, except as it was rekindled by that shooting star, Kendrell Bell circa 2001, that fire has all but burned out.

Earlier, Bud Carson and George Perles reprised Capers and LeBeau (respectively) to Cowher�s Chuck Noll. Tony Dungy eulogized Carson earlier this week, saying he learned the basis of his so-called Dungy Two when playing in Pittsburgh. At root, that is a UT 4-3 with a NT cocked on center, a pair of DE who can get upfield or set the edge along with (at least) one elite coverage LB. After that, personnel may vary but the essence is immutable. It all begins upfront.

The beauty of the 4-down, Cover 2 is in its simplicity. Symmetrical as a brick and, just as we can vault a cathedral, wall a garden or raise a warehouse with (essentially) one common unit, so too are the permutations arising from that base. For instance: Indy 2005, Carolina 2003 and Tampa 2002 are (or were) rush 4 teams. Chicago 2005, headed by Lovie Smith, a Dungy prot�g�, not so much; the Bears have the best blitzing MLB in football, and do take advantage. Still the essence is the same, those teams were built front to back.

In contrast, the 3-4 Cover 3 Cowher classic is a clockwork; elegant as a construct but easily disrupted. Jam the gears and it�s garbage. For this 2005 PSD, the root problem remains unaltered from 2002. That is, the PS base personnel do not translate effectively in package situations. More specifically, the PS front personnel ineffectually mimic the 4-3. That is because their base DE can�t rush; their base OLB can�t rush and their base ILB can�t cover. Since 2002, the PS secondary has improved but the front design has not.

Sunday, we will see two defenses that exemplify those twin innovations spawned here, in Steel-no-more- City. The Bears, modeled on that earlier more generous template, can incorporate elements of the latter. They do drop their DE in coverage; they do blitz their LB; they do have two (maybe three) DT who can hold the point.

In contrast, the Steelers� set is overspecialized to the point of extinction. Citing just one example: they cannot pressure rushing 4, so the Polamalu packages, which effectively eliminate Cover 2. While the PS D-side deficiencies won�t matter Sunday (the Chicago O is that bad), it is noteworthy that, this time, the D-side unit exemplifying the very best that this Pittsburgh franchise ever has put forward will be sporting road whites, not black and gold.

Back of the book:

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23
@ Chargers	18	16	14-7	13	12	10-15	31	28	24-22
v. Jaguars	11	14	14-10	14 OT: 3	17 OT: 2	3-7 0-06	28	33	17-23
@Bengals	14	9	7-6	29	6	20-7	43	15	27-13
v. Ravens	13	19	10-10	13	15	10-9	26	34	20-19
@ Green Bay	9	10	13-3	16	11	7-7	25	21	20-10
Cleveland	14	21	17-7	24	8	17-14	38	29	34-21
@ Baltimore	6	17	6-13	11 OT: 4	26 OT: 5	13-13 0- 03	21	48	13-16
@ Indy	14	16	7-16	10	15	0-10	24	31	7-26
Cincinnati	16	20	17-21	12	23	14-17	28	43	31-38

Notes:

� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.

� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.

� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.

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