Pro Bowl Player History Review

I�ve done a little research concerning the players selected to the Pro Bowl over the past two seasons. With the draft coming up, I thought it might be useful to get a sense of where value at any given position could be found. One way of arriving is to consider that those men selected to the Pro Bowl do represent such value.

There are arguments to be made against that, certainly the Still Mill has made a case against Jason Gildon. But, leaving singular cases aside, the Pro Bowl rosters generally represent the best that the game has to offer.

The tables following aggregate the Pro Bowl rosters from the past two seasons. Generally, the column and row headings are self-explanatory but that�s not true for columns 2 and 3. In 2, the numbers x/y represent the total number of slots at the position over the number of players selected to both games. For instance, each year both conferences are represented by 3 QB; that is 2 conferences x 3 players x 2 years = 12. Three players (Manning, Gannon and Warner) are repeaters. Therefore 12/3.

Please note that under the columns by round, repeaters are not double entered. Consider the QB again, Manning and Culpepper were both 1st round selections; though Manning was selected twice, I�ve entered 2, not 3 under 1st round. Add the columns from left to right across all rounds; with QB, you�ll get 9 entries. 9 players with 3 repeating = 12 slots. Entering Manning, or the other repeaters, twice would skew the figures.

Column 3, the DF entry, purports to describe a "dominator factor." For QB, it is 25% and, obviously, that is the remainder from dividing 3 repeaters into 12 slots. Manning, Gannon and Warner are considered to be "dominators" because they have repeated. The value of this factor, if there is any, might be as a sort of tiebreaker. If a team had need at two positions and had prospects at both whom they had rated equally, that team might elect to draft where they had the best chance for a dominating type player.

Players aside, the DF column might be an aide in prioritizing positions. Consider DT and OT. In the table, we can see that there are 12 slots at each position and that 11 selections have been 1st round picks. (4) OT have repeated; 3 (DT). The DF value at OT is .33; at DT, it is .25. This might suggest that, by a narrow margin, a team would take Boselli over Sapp.

Finally, the +7th column refers to that ancient time when the draft went 8 to 12 rounds. The League has added 3 teams since there were 12 rounds with a 4th to follow. Factoring in compensatory picks, a 5th rounder may be taken at about 170 overall. Previously, that might have been a top of the 7th pick. I�m not factoring that and, since few players are involved, it doesn�t much matter.

1. Factoring out repeaters, 114 men have occupied the 152 Pro Bowl slots. Of those, 51 were former 1st round selections. The positions order as OT, DT, RB, DE, CB, WR, OLB, and OG. The premium is from both tackles through CB.

2. 21 Players selected were formerly 2nd round picks. Top value there is at S, OG, TE, and RB. Forget tackles on either side of the ball and, apparently, at OLB or CB since quality is available there in the 3rd. In general, teams can either get a dominator at a second tier position like S, OG, TE, FB and OC or pick up the best available skill player on either side of the ball.

3. 21 players selected were formerly 3rd or 4th round picks. 3rd round types are scattered all over the field with a concentration at OLB and CB. Oddly, 4th round picks are exclusively on the offensive side especially in the interior line.

4. 21 players selected were formerly 5th round and beyond or FA. QB, S, TE, FB and MLB are heavily represented in this group.