2005 Game 2 Preview, Steelers @ Houston

September 16, 2005 by Steel Phantom

2005 Game 2 Preview

Last week, Ben Roethlisberger and the PSO demonstrated that exhibition action means nothing.� Stoned in 16 pre-season possessions, the Steeler O scored on each of their first 6 trips Sunday, when it mattered.� Roethlisberger, whose summertime passer rating was a paltry 32.8, opened real ball with a perfect score, 158.3.

Last week, David Carr and the Houston O demonstrated the adage: �as you practice, so shall you play.�� Carr struggled in pre-season, posting a 23.0 rating; in the opener, he plunged to 12.1.� How bad is that?� Well, back in 2002 when the Texan O came into Heinz, ultimately to come away with all of 47 yards total offense, Carr was 3 for 10 for 33 yards.� That day his rating was 40.8.��

Week 1 O-side results:�

	Steelers	Texans	Remarks on the Texans� performance
Points	34	7
Total yards	424	120	Houston had 25 net passing yards
TOP	30:50	21:45	2^nd possession, Texans turned it over at their own 32.� Their D made a stand, limiting Buffalo to a FG.� A kickoff and the Texan O came on, briefly.�� They fumbled on the first snap, so maintaining possession for 19 seconds.� That is losing football.�
Turnovers	None	5	Off 3 of those 5, Buffalo gained possession at the HST 32, 27 and 23.� Each time, the Bills were limited to a FG.�
Sacked	None	5	In 45 starts, Carr has been sacked 145 times.��
Possessions lasting 3 or fewer snaps	Two, late	7	Houston�s offensive ineptitude created the Bill�s TOP bulge.� The Bills didn�t help themselves, converting just 3 of 14 third down opportunities.�

As noted above, David Carr has endured severe punishment.� 145 sacks in 45 games do constitute a beating.� By way of context, teams leading the League in sacks over those 3 seasons accomplished: 56, 47 and 48.� That�s 151 in 48 games; that sack per game ratio is (slightly) less than what Carr has experienced.� Carr has been sacked on 10.57% of all dropbacks (excluding flushes).� The League average varies year to year but hovers around 7%.�

The short form is that the Houston O has made any average pass rush look like the old Rams� Fearsome Foursome. Part of that is the O-line; part that the Texan passing attack has been, dominantly, vertical.� Those patterns take time but Carr hasn�t had time.� So, last winter Houston O-head Chris Palmer (former Brown HC) installed an underneath game.� Now, that doesn�t fit Houston�s personnel; all their WR are downfield guys and they don�t have a receiving TE.�� Naturally, the Texans struggled in pre-season but you�d presume they�d stay the course.� How is it then, when facing Buffalo�s Cover 2 last Sunday, (reportedly) the Texans largely abandoned the short game, going vertical early and often, even with no results?� By design, Cover 2 seeks to limit the big ball, allowing some underneath stuff but if game reports are to be believed, the Texans stubbornly played into the strength of that set.� The results?� A ruthless beatdown and one of the weirder stat lines found for any DB, ever:

	Tackles	Assists	Passes defended	INT
Troy Vincent, FS	None	None	2	2

The Texans do have talent at the skill spots.� Mimicking division rival Indy and their Triplet mode, Houston drafted Carr #1 overall in 2002, WR Andre Johnson #3 overall in 2003, and they got some luck snagging RB Domanick Davis R4 that spring.� To date though, the sum has been less than the parts.� Since those players were selected for a system different from that now installed, this doesn�t figure to change.�

Upfront, the Texans don�t have much talent but they do have (another) misfit between players and system.� Houston has one of the bigger O-lines in football, averaging about 318#.� Last season, they installed a zone blocking scheme, a mode that places a premium on smaller, mobile O-linemen.� For example, both Atlanta and Denver have lines averaging 300#, or less.��

The Texan O-line is big but not mobile.� Perhaps for that reason, Year 1 in zone, Houston�s O-line played less effectively than they had the season prior.� To cite one example, after allowing a horrific 78 sacks in 2002, the Texans gave just 36 in 2003.� That was 16^th in the League, up from #32.� In 2004, Year 1 ZB, they gave 49 sacks, falling back to 26^th overall.�

Over this past winter, they added one player upfront, OT Victor Riley.� A career RT, the 340# Riley now is playing LT.� Last season, when with New Orleans, he had more pre-snap penalties than all but one O-lineman, league-wide.�� Evidently, he�s undisciplined, and he�s out of position; it�s not obvious that he�s going to help.� Certainly, the early returns are not good.� Last week Buffalo DE Aaron Schobel had 2 sacks, Buffalo DE Chad Kelsey had 1 and Buffalo OLB/package rusher Jeff Posey had numerous pressures.� As an aside, Posey was the Texan�s LOLB for one season, 2002.� Two years on, he remains the new Texan�s single season sack leader.��

Riley is the 3^rd LT in the Texans� brief history.� The first, Chester Pitts, is now at LG.� The second, Seth Wand, is a backup, behind RT Todd Wade.�� Wade is the best of the FA constituting the Texan O-line; the others: Indy reject OC Seth McKinney and RG Zach Wiegert, who previously has been considered an upgradeable starter in both Jacksonville and St. Louis.�

The short form is: the Texans have some parts but the pieces don�t fit.� That�s a problem starting from the top; it appears that the Texan braintrust lacks an overarching vision.� Consider that since 2002 Houston has drafted only 4 starters on this side of the ball.� In the same period, the Steelers have drafted 4 too, and picked up UDFA Willie Parker.� When Heath Miller moves in, that will be, in effect, six.� It is remarkable that an expansion squad entering their first draft with culls, castoffs and damaged vets has been unable to match the draft record of a long time contender.�

What to expect:

Houston will try to establish play action, mimicking the Titans who did that so effectively at Heinz in Game 1.� The PS D got little pressure on McNair, in the early going anyway.� They did get 3 sacks late but all occurred when Tennessee was in catch-up, chuck and duck, mode.� It is worth noting that the Titans demonstrated little respect for the PS rush.� Early on, even with a rookie at LT and a banged up 2^nd year guy at RT, the Titans sent 5 in a pattern on (nearly) every pass down.� Occasionally, their RB and TE chipped a bit, but that was merely a token.� Evidently, Tennessee saw little to fear from the PS base rush; nothing transpired last week to challenge that presumption.�

On the plus side, Houston is, by preference, a 3-wide team.� For the PS of the recent past, that has been sure death, but no more.� These 2005 Steelers figure to get far better playmaking from their packages than out of the base.� Past Farrior, they are weak at ILB and that does affect their base defense.� In packages, with the safeties down, (Polamalu, Hope or even Logan), they get faster, sacrificing little, if anything, in hitting.� Throughout this coming game, the Steelers will have to shade coverage towards Andre Johnson.� In their package configurations, they can get that done.� The base?� Not so much.�

Since mid-2004, every Texan opponent has doubled Johnson.� One indicator:� through the first 12 games of that season, Johnson had 68 R, 5 TD and 1018 yards.� In the final 4, he had 11 R, 1 TD and 124 yards.� Last week Buffalo�s Cover 2 limited him to 3 R, 0 TD and 18 yards.� Teams have schemed to take Johnson out, and the other Texan WR have failed to respond.� However, job #1 remains to choke off play action; therefore:��

Key: limit Domanick Davis.� Last season, Davis finished 6^th in the NFL in yards from scrimmage.� He had 1776, more than any current Steeler RB ever has (though just 1 yard more than Bettis, circa 1997).� Davis is a good, not great, runner; he is suited for the one-cut-and-go associated with zone blocking but lacks in-line power and, consequently, has taken a high % of stuffs.� However, he is a threat in the pass game, especially the short pass game.� In his two-season career, Davis has had 47 and 68 receptions; in general, he has been Carr�s target of choice in 3^rd and long situations.� Lined up in single back or I, Davis will run or receive; that is, we can assume he�ll be in a pattern on pass downs, rather than relegated to blitz pickup.� Finally, when Davis is slotted, the Steelers must contest his release.� If they can disrupt his pattern, Carr will hold the ball.� Then, but only then, the PS pass rush may get home.�

On the other side of the ball:

Week 1 D-side results:�

	Steelers	Texans	Remarks on the Texans� performance
Points allowed	7	22	Bills scored v. Houston on each of their first 5 possessions.�
Total yards allowed	303	316	Bills had 211 yards at the half including 143 of 170 passing yards.�
TOP against	29:10	38:15	In the first half, Bills had the ball for 21:12.��
Takeaways	4	None	Opening the 2^nd H, ROLB Antwan Peek dropped an INT, which would have resulted in a Texan TD.�
Sacks	3	1	Texans converted an all-out blitz.�
Big plays allowed	5	7	Defined:� run greater than 10 yards; pass greater than 20 yards

That Trinity (Bill Cowher, Dick LeBeau and Houston HC Dom Capers) present at the creation of the almighty Fire Blitz will re-constitute at Reliant Sunday.� Unsurprisingly, there are similarities in the systems run here and in Houston.�� The difference is, that while the Steeler D was resurrected last season when Coach Dick returned to the fold, Houston�s D has regressed, in most aspects.� Tabulated:

Texan Defense, league rank, three seasons:

	Overall, yardage base	YPA	YPC	Sacks	Takeaways, (raw number)	Remarks
2004	23^rd	23^rd	23^rd	32^nd	30	Rook CB Dunta Robinson made a difference, as did moving Marco Coleman from CB to FS.�
2003	31^st	31^st	22^nd	31^st	22	Defense collapsed when NT Seth Payne and DE Gary Walker were lost for the season
2002	18^th	13^th	14^th	17^th	21	Respectable show, especially given TOP disadvantage.� However, expansion draft vets led this set.� Not for long.�

A couple things jump out:

� Texan front 7 trends are headed downward:� the 2002 Texans relied on expansion draft vets like Gary Walker, Seth Payne, Jamie Sharper and Kailee Wong to make plays.� That�s fine, short term, but younger players have yet to make a difference.�

Sharper is gone, capably replaced by Wong.� Last season, the Texans couldn�t stop the run, except, per Football Outsiders, wide to their right.� Wong was the ROLB then; now, he is the Texans� Mike.� That reprises his role in Minnesota.� Against the grain, the 2002 Texans had sought to make this 4-3 MLB a 3-4 OLB; generally, that conversion goes the other way.�

Both Walker and Payne are several years and some significant surgeries from their peaks.� Although both played effectively in Buffalo (Payne led the team in T), they both wore down as the game went on.� Robaire Smith is the Texans� LDE, teaming with Walker and Payne to form an above average stuffing D-line.� Smith figures to give Kendall Simmons all he can handle, and maybe more.� Finally, Fin castaway Morlan Greenwood pairs with Wong inside; Greenwood is just a guy, first off in the Texan packages.��

The Texan drafts haven�t gotten much but they did pick up both starting OLB.� Whatever hopes Houston may harbor for improvement depend almost entirely on these players stepping forward.� ROLB Antwan Peek is a superb athlete; in that aspect, a Joey Porter clone.� Peek is the same size too, 6-3, 250#; the difference is all a matter of experience.� Jason Babin is a Vrabel sized LOLB; experience too is a factor with this 2^nd year player.� High motor, high try, moderate performance, to date.� It will be worth watching this matchup: Babin against the Steelers� 2^nd year RT Max Starks

� Texan takeaways are up, by the INT factor: playing in the pass happy AFC South, the 2004 Texans fielded, in effect, three CB.� That included: expansion vets Aaron Glenn and Marco Coleman as well as R1 rook Dunta Robinson.� That trio posted 13 of the Texans� 22 INT; Robinson leading the way with 6.� It�s worth noting that only 8 Texan takes came off FR; this suggests low impact from their ST and Front 7.�

Off season, the Texans dealt out Glenn, bringing in Philip Buchanon from Oakland.� In the short term, at least, that is a step down.� Glenn is a quality cover CB; Buchanon has all the ability in the world but tends to play way outside the scheme.� Last week, Buffalo went at Buchanon early and often.� Although Buffalo is credited with just one big play through the air, 42 yards to speedster Lee Evans, their #2 and #3 air gainers, 19 and 17, were just shy of big, as defined.� Those went to Eric Moulds and, again, to Evans.� In each of those three, Buchanon was in coverage.�

What to expect:�

Buffalo had success using the pass to set up the run.� It figures, whether with Roethlisberger or Maddox, the Steelers will do likewise.� Buchanon will be the primary target, forcing Marco Coleman to help on that side.� There is some danger here; Buchanon does have hands and is a tremendous return guy. �As a complement, the PS may go underneath forcing the Texans� young OLB to cover, rather than rush.� For the PS, better those players chase since, except as Peek and Babin get off Sunday, the PS QB should feel little to no pressure.� Same with Dunta Robinson: this player does many things well: run force, blitz, press and zone under; however, he has had some problems turning and covering deep.� If the Steelers can exploit Buchanon early, forcing Coleman to shade to that side, they may get over on Robinson later.

The Texans� Front 7 starters don�t make many big plays but they are respectable.� The problem is depth; when their D-line ones gas, Houston has little in relief.� One example from last week: Willis McGahee opened 5/0 and 8/12; he closed at 22/117.� In his final 14 carries, McGahee had 5 runs >10 yards.� That is a Willie Parker rate.� In their opener, the Steelers showed they have 6 D-linemen they can rotate through September�s heat; in their opener, the Texans showed they do not.�

Worth noting:� Houston did few good things Week 1 but their defense was excellent in critical situations.� That crew allowed Buffalo to convert just 3/14 3^rd down and 1/5 in the Red Zone.�

Conclusion:

The Texans do not have a home field advantage.� Over 3 seasons, they are 16-32: 8-16 at home, and 8-16 on the road.� The last time Houston was at Reliant (Week 17, 2004), they faced the Cleveland Browns, then a team in disarray.� Butch Davis had quit, or been pushed out, following Game 11.� Terry �Biscuit� Robiskie (seen here as an interim HC when the Skins came to town in 2000) was temping again; with Biscuit at the helm, Cleveland had dropped 4 straight.� However, they crushed the Texans that day, a team that, at 7-8, was playing for their first non-losing campaign.�

The heat is on Dom Capers, David Carr and all the rest.� Year 4, Texan fans expect a winner.� Last season�s stinking close may be forgiven, but it is not forgotten.� The Texans accomplished little in FA last winter; they were bad in August and awful in Buffalo.� If the Steelers get out early, it figures the crowd will turn.� More to the point, the Texans, especially that Texan O, are dazed and confused.� Their game, and confidence, being shaky at best, it won�t take much pressure to push them over the edge.�

Finally, following an article posted here last month, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans

Note:

� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.

� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�

Week 1 PS Notables:

� Willie Parker:� 161 yards rushing and 209 yards total offense.� We all knew Parker had speed; last week, he showed quick feet, great vision and the ability to recognize when two yards would do.�

� Ike Taylor:� In his first start (base defense), had an uneven game.� Showed in run force but missed a couple tackles downfield.� Was highly effective in limiting Titan #1 Drew Bennett but was beaten by Titan rook Brandon Jones.� Still, in the Era of the Manning Rule, a quality performance.� As noted here long ago, the playoffs are key; Taylor figures to benefit from game experience while Willie Williams does not.�

� Antwan Randle El: Inaugurating the post-Spike Era, collected his first TD of this season, and the first +40 grab of his career.� ARE used a little out feint to turn Titan RCB Tony Beckham and then, downfield, found the ball well ahead of SS Tank Williams, who, on that play, showed why he�s an in-the-box safety.� Later, El worked Beckham for a 29-yarder.� Good start even if we concede Beckham (for now anyway) may be #64 among all starting NFL CB.��

� Andre Frazier:� Solid performance on ST and collected his first career sack, even if in garbage time.� Frazier is an UDFA and the odds on pass rushers emerging from that set are not good.� However, Frazier has beaten the odds before; a former walk-on a U-Cincinnati, he did become a quality starter.� Here�s hoping he can do it again, at the highest level.� Certainly, the PS have need in this area.�

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